(changes in italics)
LOCKS: There are a lot of teams I could probably add to this list with high certainty but here at Barnes Bracketology, I only do it with 100% certainty. So I'll continue to be patient with a few more teams who are capable of struggling on the way in and making things difficult. I will howveer add UCLA to this list. Quality win vs. Arizona State, a team fighting to get into the field, and an already solid resume to boot.
LOCKS (28): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Wisconsin, Butler, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Oregon, San Diego State, UNLV, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Saint Louis, Wichita State, UCLA
AUTOS: Every Sunday, I'll take a look at this group a little closer to see if anything really needs to be changed
Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold
AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, C-USA - Memphis, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech
AT-LARGE: All Maryland had to do was beat lowly Georgia Tech to stay in this group. Instead, they get beat by 10 and yet again, the Terps are in trouble. But instead of focusing on the negative, let's focus on the positive which is Tennessee. The Vols have not made even my BUBBLE list but the Vols are doing what teams need to do in late February - getting the attention of people with big wins. Beating Florida at home qualifies as that. They are on a 6-game win streak and have vaulted to 52nd in the RPI. Well done.
These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton
These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton
AT-LARGE (19): Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Colorado State, NC State, North Carolina, Minnesota, VCU, California, Kentucky, Iowa State, Saint Mary's, Creighton, Virginia, Temple, Cincinnati, La Salle, Villanova, Tennessee
BUBBLE WATCH
BUBBLE: It was another so-so week for these teams. Some got good, but not great wins like Ole Miss, Boise State and Baylor. Others though continue to see their stock fall with terrible losses like Indiana State, Arkansas and Charlotte. Arizona State and BYU lost to teams above them but those are games they need to win to make a statement.
These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.
BUBBLE (36): Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Colorado State, NC State, Memphis, North Carolina,
Minnesota, VCU, California, Kentucky, Iowa State, Akron, Saint Mary's,
Creighton, Virginia, Temple, Cincinnati, La Salle, Villanova, Tennessee, Boise State, Baylor, Maryland, Ole Miss, Arizona State, St. John's, Belmont, Arkansas, Indiana State, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Alabama, Southern Miss, BYU, Charlotte
These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.
BUBBLE (36): Missouri, Illinois, Colorado, Colorado State, NC State, Memphis, North Carolina,
Minnesota, VCU, California, Kentucky, Iowa State, Akron, Saint Mary's,
Creighton, Virginia, Temple, Cincinnati, La Salle, Villanova, Tennessee, Boise State, Baylor, Maryland, Ole Miss, Arizona State, St. John's, Belmont, Arkansas, Indiana State, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Alabama, Southern Miss, BYU, Charlotte
SEEDING
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (5), ACC (5), A-10 (5), Pac-12 (5), MWC (4), SEC (4), MVC (2), WCC (2)
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (5), ACC (5), A-10 (5), Pac-12 (5), MWC (4), SEC (4), MVC (2), WCC (2)
(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs.SOUTH
WEST vs. EAST
SATURDAY
Iowa at Indiana - Whatever chance Iowa has to get into the tourney depends on this game. Indiana hopes to avoid being upset twice in the same week.
Miami (FL) at Duke - The 'Canes won the first one handily. Duke clearly wants revenge and is probably still stinging from losing at Virginia. Winner gets a 1 seed. Loser falls to a 2 seed.
Alabama at Florida - The Gators have shown they can lose to inferior teams. That's good news for Alabama, who needs a quality win in the worst way.
Louisville at Syracuse - The Orange are somewhat limping to the end, losing to teams they probably should be beating. Louisville has been playing like one of the better teams in the nation lately.
Arizona at UCLA - Remember when Arizona was a 1 seed. Now they are a 4 seed and there's still room to drop. UCLA wants this win badly too with a nation watching.
Kansas State at Baylor - Baylor is running out of time. They need to beat one of the top teams in the Big 12 and not just feats on the bottom squads.
Memphis at UCF - Well, the long win streak is over for Memphis. Time to start another or risk missing the tourney. Their resume is still pretty weak.
Notre Dame at Marquette - Couple of teams hoping to improve upon their seeding and better position themselves for a run in the Big East tournament.
Maryland at Wake Forest - We know Wake is capable of beating good teams at home. Maryland can;t allow that to happen to them.
Iowa State at Oklahoma - The poor Cyclones got jobbed out of a win vs. Kansas. Chance to put that behind them though with a quality road in Norman.
Tennessee at Georgia - The Vols showed plenty of poise taking on Florida. Now, time to hit the road and play that same basketball against a UGA team that has shown to be tough to beat.
Wichita State at Creighton - Both of these teams struggled in February, but especially Creighton. I still think they're in decent shape but they'd be in good shape if they take care of this one.
UConn at Cincinnati - The Bearcats are falling out of favor fast. I may be underrating them compared to most but if they lose another home game to a good Big East team, then maybe other are overrating them.
Arizona State at USC - ASU is having a devil of a time (see what I did there?) locking up a spot in this field. This is a must-win for a desperate team.
Penn State at Minnesota - Shoutout to the Nittany Lions for their big upset vs. Michigan. Now let's see if they can take it on the road.
Kentucky at Arkansas - Much bigger game for Arkansas than UK. Razorbacks just lost to LSU. That's awful.
Colorado at California - If Colorado pulls this off, they are a LOCK for sure. If Cal pulls this off, they are on the fast track to win the Pac-12 regular season title.
Ole Miss at Mississippi State - Ole Miss is the better team, plain and simple. Play like it, win it and see what happens over the weekend. Might be enough to get back in the field.
Indiana State at Evansville - They may already be in "win the conference tournament only" range but just in case, this is a game they need to win.
Akron at Buffalo - This is the Zips last road test of the season. Win this one and the 2 final home games and I think they are an AT-LARGE if they trip up in the MAC tourney.
Colorado State at Boise State - Boise State finishes against Colorado State, at UNLV and San Diego State. Broncos need to win 2 of the 3 to be taken seriously.
SUNDAY
Michigan State at Michigan - Lot of seeding implications here. MSU is trying to avoid a 3-game losing streak. Michigan is trying to rebound from the embarrassing loss at Penn State.
Villanova at Pittsburgh - One of those games 'Nova should win if they want to feel a little better about their chances come Selection Sunday. Quality road win vs. a solid opponent.
Virginia at Boston College - Don't let that Duke win fool you. This Virginia team can be bad against bad teams. They've shown many times already this season.
Next update after Sunday's games. Enjoy the games this weekend and check back Monday morning/afternoon for the latest projections and prognostications!
MB
MIDWEST vs.SOUTH
WEST vs. EAST
**Indiana is the overall top seed
GAMES TO WATCH
SATURDAY
Iowa at Indiana - Whatever chance Iowa has to get into the tourney depends on this game. Indiana hopes to avoid being upset twice in the same week.
Miami (FL) at Duke - The 'Canes won the first one handily. Duke clearly wants revenge and is probably still stinging from losing at Virginia. Winner gets a 1 seed. Loser falls to a 2 seed.
Alabama at Florida - The Gators have shown they can lose to inferior teams. That's good news for Alabama, who needs a quality win in the worst way.
Louisville at Syracuse - The Orange are somewhat limping to the end, losing to teams they probably should be beating. Louisville has been playing like one of the better teams in the nation lately.
Arizona at UCLA - Remember when Arizona was a 1 seed. Now they are a 4 seed and there's still room to drop. UCLA wants this win badly too with a nation watching.
Kansas State at Baylor - Baylor is running out of time. They need to beat one of the top teams in the Big 12 and not just feats on the bottom squads.
Memphis at UCF - Well, the long win streak is over for Memphis. Time to start another or risk missing the tourney. Their resume is still pretty weak.
Notre Dame at Marquette - Couple of teams hoping to improve upon their seeding and better position themselves for a run in the Big East tournament.
Maryland at Wake Forest - We know Wake is capable of beating good teams at home. Maryland can;t allow that to happen to them.
Iowa State at Oklahoma - The poor Cyclones got jobbed out of a win vs. Kansas. Chance to put that behind them though with a quality road in Norman.
Tennessee at Georgia - The Vols showed plenty of poise taking on Florida. Now, time to hit the road and play that same basketball against a UGA team that has shown to be tough to beat.
Wichita State at Creighton - Both of these teams struggled in February, but especially Creighton. I still think they're in decent shape but they'd be in good shape if they take care of this one.
UConn at Cincinnati - The Bearcats are falling out of favor fast. I may be underrating them compared to most but if they lose another home game to a good Big East team, then maybe other are overrating them.
Arizona State at USC - ASU is having a devil of a time (see what I did there?) locking up a spot in this field. This is a must-win for a desperate team.
Penn State at Minnesota - Shoutout to the Nittany Lions for their big upset vs. Michigan. Now let's see if they can take it on the road.
Kentucky at Arkansas - Much bigger game for Arkansas than UK. Razorbacks just lost to LSU. That's awful.
Colorado at California - If Colorado pulls this off, they are a LOCK for sure. If Cal pulls this off, they are on the fast track to win the Pac-12 regular season title.
Ole Miss at Mississippi State - Ole Miss is the better team, plain and simple. Play like it, win it and see what happens over the weekend. Might be enough to get back in the field.
Indiana State at Evansville - They may already be in "win the conference tournament only" range but just in case, this is a game they need to win.
Akron at Buffalo - This is the Zips last road test of the season. Win this one and the 2 final home games and I think they are an AT-LARGE if they trip up in the MAC tourney.
Colorado State at Boise State - Boise State finishes against Colorado State, at UNLV and San Diego State. Broncos need to win 2 of the 3 to be taken seriously.
SUNDAY
Michigan State at Michigan - Lot of seeding implications here. MSU is trying to avoid a 3-game losing streak. Michigan is trying to rebound from the embarrassing loss at Penn State.
Villanova at Pittsburgh - One of those games 'Nova should win if they want to feel a little better about their chances come Selection Sunday. Quality road win vs. a solid opponent.
Virginia at Boston College - Don't let that Duke win fool you. This Virginia team can be bad against bad teams. They've shown many times already this season.
Next update after Sunday's games. Enjoy the games this weekend and check back Monday morning/afternoon for the latest projections and prognostications!
MB
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