2011 Barnes Bracketology - FINAL

We have come to the end everyone. No need for a lengthy intro. Just the facts.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS (43): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, George Mason, Old Dominion, Kansas State, UNLV, UCLA, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Washington, Florida State, Utah State, Marquette, Richmond, Michigan, Michigan State, Colorado, Penn State, Illinois, and Tennessee


AUTOS (21): America East - Boston University, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Northern Colorado, Big South - UNC-Asheville , Big West - UC-Santa Barbara, Conference USA - Memphis, Horizon - Butler, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - St. Peter's , MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Indiana State, Northeast - Long Island, Ohio Valley - Morehead State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - UT-San Antonio, SWAC - Alabama State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC -Gonzaga

AT-LARGE (4): St. Mary's, Virginia Tech, Georgia, and Clemson

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE (12): St. Mary's, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Clemson, USC, Alabama, Boston College, UAB, Missouri State, VCU, Harvard, UTEP

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), SEC (5), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), WCC (2)



(Click on bracket to enlarge)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHWEST vs. SOUTHEAST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

And that's all she wrote. Here are my goals:

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region
2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots
3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct
4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup

I'll write a recap post after the brackets are announced later today (hopefully)

MB

2011 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 7th

Sorry for the tardiness of this post. Been a busy weekend to say the least. That includes in college basketball as Championship week gets going. That means upsets abound and bubble bursting. For me, that means constant shuffling of teams in the bracket. It's not easy to keep changing it up, but it is a fun challenge to see just where teams can go after all these upsets.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I added 3 more teams to this category after the weekend. Florids State avoided an embarassing loss against NC State, giving them 21 wins and a good feeling come Selection Sunday. UAB also avoided an upset, beating East Carolina. The Blazers are now 22-7, won the Conference-USA regular season title and have an RPI of 28, better than the likes of Villanova, Texas A&M and Missouri. Finally, Utah State joins this list after also avoiding a bad loss versus Louisiana Tech. The Aggies are 28-3 on the season and have an RPI of 18. That is enough for me to make them a LOCK, no matter what happens in the WAC tournament.

LOCKS (36): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, George Mason, Old Dominion, Kansas State, UNLV, UCLA, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Washington, Florida State, UAB, and Utah State.

AUTOS: It may seem shocking but we actually have changes to this category. Some of the teams were made LOCKS, lowering the number here from 22 to 20. Also, some teams that I had projected to win the conference tournament lost, causing me to replace them. And finally, others I projected lost and the tournament crowned a champion, meaning that team has clinched its bid.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (20): America East - Boston Univerity, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Horizon - Butler, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Bethune Cookman, Missouri Valley - Indiana State, Northeast - Long Island, Ohio Valley - Morehead State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Charleston, Southland - McNeese State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WCC -St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: This group has some changes again, as teams continue to lose, not win. At a time when winning is so important, many of the BUBBLE teams are falling, so teams like Boston College, Michigan and Richmond who keep winning find themselves feeling a lot better about their chances than 3 weeks ago.

Again, these are in order from most safe to least safe. I would say the top half of this group is in fairly good shape, unless they completely fall apart. The bottom half though needs to keep winning to feel good at all.

AT-LARGE (12): Illinois, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Richmond, Marquette, Boston College, Michigan, Michigan State, Georgia, Alabama, Colorado and Virginia Tech.

BUBBLE WATCH

In my 3 years of doing Barnes Bracketology, this is by far the worst group of BUBBLE teams. And of course, this comes when the field is increased to 68. With that said, these teams are playing this week for an invite and opportunity to play for the National Championship. Some of these teams are done for the season (Cleveland State, Missouri State) and cannot improve their resume. Others though can do plenty of good or harm to their chances.

BUBBLE (27): Illinois, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Richmond, Butler, Marquette, St. Mary's, Boston College, Michigan, Michigan State, Georgia, Alabama, Colorado, Virginia Tech, Memphis, Missouri State, Clemson, Nebraska, VCU, Colorado State, USC, Baylor, Cleveland State, UTEP, Penn State, Washington State, and Marshall.

SEEDING

The seeding didn't get shaken up as much as I thought it would when I started. North Carolina narrowly misses being a 2 seed, as I favor Texas as of now. Notre Dame also comes up just short of a 1 seed to Duke. Other than that, the biggest thing I did is change the other play-in game to a 12 seed from a 13 seed as in previous brackets. That was an anticpated change as more teams steal bids in mid-major conference tournaments.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), ACC (5), Big 12 (5), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), WCC (2)


(Click on bracket to enlarge)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHWEST vs. SOUTHEAST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

Team has moved up since last post
Team has moved down since last post

EAST REGION - Newark
#1 Ohio State (29-2) vs. #16 Boston University (20-13) - Cleveland
#2 Texas (25-6) vs. #15 Montana (20-9)- Tulsa
#3 San Diego State (29-2) vs. #14 Charleston (24-9) - Tucson
#4 Georgetown (21-9) vs. #13 Belmont (30-4) - Tucson
#5 Arizona (25-6) vs. #12 Colorado (19-12)/Alabama (20-10) - Tucson
#6 West Virginia (20-10) vs. #11 Michigan (19-12) - Tucson
#7 Cincinnati (24-7) vs. #10 Tennessee (18-13) - Tulsa
#8 George Mason (26-6) vs. #9 UAB (22-7) - Cleveland

SOUTHWEST REGION - San Antonio
#1 Kansas (29-2) vs. #16 Texas Southern (18-11)/Bethune-Cookman (20-11) - Tulsa
#2 Purdue (25-6) vs. #15 Bucknell (24-8) - Chicago
#3 North Carolina (24-6) vs. #14 Indiana State (20-13) - Charlotte
#4 Syracuse (25-6) vs. #13 Morehead State (24-9) - Denver
#5 Vanderbilt (21-9) vs. #12 Boston College(19-11) - Denver
#6 Xavier (24-6) vs. #11 Marquette (18-13) - Charlotte
#7 UConn (21-9) vs. #10 Gonzaga (23-9) - Chicago
#8 Old Dominion (26-6) vs. #9 Washington (20-10) - Tulsa

SOUTHEAST REGION - New Orleans
#1 Pittsburgh (27-4) vs. #16 McNeese State (19-10)/Middle Tennessee (16-15) - Cleveland
#2 BYU (28-3) vs. #15 Long Beach State (20-10) - Denver
#3 Wisconsin (23-7) vs. #14 Kent State (21-10) - Washington D.C.
#4 Kentucky (22-8) vs. #13 Princeton (23-6) - Tampa
#5 Kansas State (22-9) vs. #12 Michigan State (17-13) - Tampa
#6 St. John's (20-10) vs. #11 Butler (22-9) - Washington D.C.
#7 Missouri (22-9) vs. #10 Richmond (24-7) - Denver
#8 UCLA (22-9) vs. #9 Florida State (21-9) - Cleveland

WEST REGION - Anaheim
#1 Duke (27-4) vs. #16 UNC-Asheville (19-13) - Charlotte
#2 Notre Dame (25-5) vs. #15 Long Island (26-5) - Chicago
#3 Florida (24-6) vs. #14 Iona (22-10) - Tampa
#4 Louisville (23-8) vs. #13 Oakland (23-9) - Washington D.C.
#5 Texas A&M (23-7) vs. #12 Virginia Tech (19-10)/Georgia (20-10) - Washington D.C.
#6 Temple (24-6) vs. #11 St. Mary's (24-7) - Tampa
#7 UNLV (23-7) vs. #10 Illinois (19-12) - Chicago
#8 Villanova (21-10) vs. #9 Utah State (28-3) - Charlotte

GAMES TO WATCH

MONDAY
VCU vs. Old Dominion (Colonial Championship) - This is a big games for the BUBBLE teams. ODU is in so if VCU wins, it steals a bid.
Iona vs. St. Peters (MAAC Championship) - Iona is the favorite. That's all I really have to say.
Wofford vs. Charleston (SoCon Championship) - Wofford reached the Big Dance a season ago. It's been a while for the College of Charleston.
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's (West Coast Championship) - Winner can bypass the nail-biting on Selection Sunday. Loser not so lucky.

TUESDAY
Butler vs. UW-Milwaukee (Horizon Championship) - This also could be a big-stealer as Butler may still get in without winning the tourney title.
Sun Belt Championship (Teams TBD) - Both the top seeds in each division are out so the winner of this game is pretty much guaranteed to begin their tournament in Dayton.
Summit Championship (Teams TBD) - Oakland is the clear favorite to win this tournament and could be a Cinderella.
Princeton at Pennsylvania - A win by Penn gives Harvard the automatic bid. A win by Princeton forces a one-game playoff for the bid.
Providence vs. Marquette - I think the Golden Eagles will make the tourney but losing here really makes it tough to argue they deserve to go ahead of teams who finished strong.

Alright, that's all I have for now. Expect an update after Tuesday's games. It will probably be a BUBBLE special instead of a full post as there aren't a lot of games here that will affect seeding.. Of course, feel free to leave comments here on the blog or on Facebook or on my Twitter.

MB

2011 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 5

If the past 2 weeks are any indication of just how unpredictable this year's tournament is going to be, then buckle up. Just 2 weeks ago, all my projected 1 seeds lost. This past week, seemed like almost bubble team lost. It's hard to get any sort of gauge of what is going on anymore. But I continue to press on, do my research, and create a projected bracket. Here is the latest.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Wee have added 3 teams to this category and for good reason. All were bubble teams and all defeated a team already in the LOCKS or AT-LARGE category. West Virginia took down UConn, Cincinnati beat Marquette on the road, and Washington beat UCLA. All 3 were fairly safe before their victories but are definitely in now.

LOCKS (33): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, George Mason, Old Dominion, Kansas State, UNLV, UCLA, West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Washington.

AUTOS: Still no changes here but don't fret as on Saturday, we will have at least 3 teams clinch their spots in the NCAA Tournament. They may or may not be who I have predicted so this category may or may not change.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Long Beach State, Conference USA - UAB, Horizon - Butler, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Fairfield, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Bethune Cookman, Missouri Valley - Missouri State, Northeast -Long Island, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Charleston, Southland - McNeese State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic, WAC - Utah State, WCC -St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: This ever-changing group is changing once again. Out goes Clemson and Memphis after losses and in comes Colorado State and Nebraska, teams who have been here before.

Again, these are in order from most safe to least safe. I would say the top half of this group is in fairly good shape, unless they completely fall apart. The bottom half though needs to keep winning to feel good at all.

AT-LARGE (13): Michigan State, Florida State, Tennessee, Marquette, Tennessee, Georgia, Illinois, Gonzaga, Richmond, Cleveland State, Boston College, Colorado State and Nebraska.

BUBBLE WATCH

At a time when BUBBLE teams should be playing their best basketball, many are finding ways to play their worst. Memphis losing at East Carolina. Maryland falling at Miami (FL). Colorado caving in to Iowa State. These are inexcusable losses at this time of the season. But yet, it happens. It make smy job hard as I have to decipher which loss is better/worse. At the same time, all these losses have brought a team like Wichita State back into discussion for a bid, despite not playing for nearly 10 days.

BUBBLE (31): Utah State, UAB. Michigan State, Florida State, Tennesee, Marquette, Georgia, Illinois, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, Richmond, Butler, St. Mary's, Cleveland State, Boston College, Missouri State, Colorado State, Nebraska, Michigan, Memphis, Alabama, Baylor, Colorado, UTEP, Clemson, VCU, Wichita State, UCF, Southern Miss, Penn State, and Valparaiso.

SEEDING

BYU's loss didn't drop them from a 2 seed but it did confirm to me that they are not a 1 seed possibility anymore. North Carolina though is up to a 3 seed as they continue their impressive play lately. UConn drops a couple spots to 6 as their erratic play continues. Other than that, not too many drastic moves in the bracket in terms of seeding.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), ACC (4), MWC (4), A-10 (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), Horizon (2), WCC (2)

(bracket will be posted later. sorry)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHWEST vs. SOUTHEAST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

Team has moved up since last post
Team has moved down since last post

EAST REGION - Newark
#1 Ohio State (28-2) vs. #16 Murray State (23-7) - Cleveland
#2 Texas (24-6) vs. #15 Bucknell (23-8) - Tucson
#3 San Diego State (28-2) vs. #14 Kent State (20-10) - Chicago
#4 Syracuse (24-6) vs. #13 Belmont (27-4) - Tucson
#5 Arizona (24-6) vs. #12 Boston College(18-11)/Cleveland State (25-7) - Tucson
#6 Temple (23-6) vs. #11 Illinois (18-12) - Chicago
#7 West Virginia (19-10) vs. #10 Tennessee (18-12) - Tucson
#8 George Mason (25-5) vs. #9 UAB (21-7) - Cleveland

SOUTHWEST REGION - San Antonio
#1 Kansas (28-2) vs. #16 Montana (20-9)/Bethune-Cookman (20-11) - Tulsa
#2 Notre Dame (24-5) vs. #15 Fairfield (23-6) - Chicago
#3 North Carolina (23-6) vs. #14 Vermont (22-7) - Tampa
#4 Georgetown (21-8) vs. #13 Princeton (22-5) - Denver
#5 Vanderbilt (21-8) vs. #12 Butler (21-9) - Denver
#6 Xavier (23-6) vs. #11 St. Mary's (23-7) - Tampa
#7 Missouri (22-8) vs. #10 Michigan State (17-12) - Chicago
#8 Cincinnati (23-6) vs. #9 Washington (20-9) - Tulsa

SOUTHEAST REGION - New Orleans
#1 Pittsburgh (26-3) vs. #16 Florida Atlantic (21-9) - Cleveland
#2 BYU (27-3) vs. #15 Long Beach State (20-10) - Tulsa
#3 Wisconsin (23-6) vs. #14 Coastal Carolina (28-4) - Washington D.C.
#4 Kentucky (21-8) vs. #13 Colorado State (19-10)/Nebraska (19-10) - Charlotte
#5 St. John's (19-10) vs. #12 Gonzaga (22-9) - Charlotte
#6 Texas A&M (22-7) vs. #11 Richmond (23-7) - Washington D.C.
#7 Villanova (21-9) vs. #10 Georgia (20-9) - Tulsa
#8 Old Dominion (24-6) vs. #9 Florida State (20-9) - Cleveland

WEST REGION - Anaheim
#1 Duke (27-2) vs. #16 Texas Southern (17-11)/McNeese State (18-10) - Charlotte
#2 Purdue (25-5) vs. #15 Long Island (25-5) - Denver
#3 Florida (23-6) vs. #14 Charleston (22-9) - Washington D.C.
#4 Louisville (23-7) vs. #13 Oakland (22-9) - Tampa
#5 Kansas State (21-9) vs. #12 Missouri State (22-7) - Tampa
#6 UConn (21-8) vs. #11 Virginia Tech (19-9) - Washington D.C.
#7 UNLV (22-7) vs. #10 Marquette (18-12) - Denver
#8 UCLA (21-9) vs. #9 Utah State (27-3) - Charlotte

GAMES TO WATCH

FRIDAY
Southern Illinois vs. Missouri State - Missouri State is in right now because I think they will win the conference tournament. An upset loss here finds them on the bubble.
Wright State vs. Cleveland State - The Vikings don't have many quality wins so a non-quality loss probably ends their NCAA hopes.
Bradley at Wichita State - Getting to the MVC championship is probably a given for the Shockers.

SATURDAY
Kansas at Missouri - The last regular season test for Kansas, who is still in the running for the top overall seed.
Duke at North Carolina - ACC crown not the only thing on the line, but also a 1 seed for Duke and maybe a higher seed for UNC.
Villanova at Pittsburgh - 'Nova has got to stop this freefall at some point while Pitt has the 1 seed nearly locked up.
Notre Dame at UConn - ND looks like a solid 2 right now but that could change with a win or loss in this one.
Texas at Baylor - A must-have for Baylor. ESPN Gameday is there so maybe that'll provide some extra motivation. Worked for Virginia Tech.
Colorado State at San Diego State - San Diego State would love to jump back to that 2 seed line. Colorado State would just love to jump into the tournament.
Louisville at West Virginia - Both teams are in comfortably. This one all about seeding.
Florida at Vanderbilt - The Gators are a 3 seed now, thanks to others faltering around them. If they don't falter, they could grab a 2 seed.
Georgetown at Cincinnati - Just how many of the 11 Big East teams will be an 8 seed or higher? Cincinnati currently fighting to be one of my projected 10.
Utah State at Louisiana Tech - Utah State should be okay already but who knows. A loss here could bring some doubts.
Virginia Tech at Clemson - Right when VT looked safe, they could go 0-2 against 2 other BUBBLE teams. Not good.
Duquense at Richmond - Contrary to popular belief, this is a good win for Richmond if they get it. And one that moves them closer to an AT-LARGE berth.
Indiana at Illinois - The Illini know they must win this one to keep whatever positive thoughts about them alive.
Georgia at Alabama - Bama is fighting for its tournament life in this game. UGA could survive a loss but a win would do wonders for their chances.
Michigan State at Michigan - I have no problem saying the loser in this one may be done. The winner however may have punched their ticket to the dance.
UTEP at SMU - UTEP is hard to figure out. But I can figure this out. Lose to SMU and NCAA chances take a huge hit.
UNC-Asheville at Coastal Carolina (Big South Championship) - We will have our first NCAA berth clinched with this game. Coastal is the hands-on favorite with a record of 28-4.
Marquette at Seton Hall - Marquette needs this one bad. Seton Hall will be pumped up too, coming off an upset of St. John's.
Princeton at Harvard - The Ivy title may just be on the line in this matchup. If Princeton wins, the berth is theirs.
East Carolina at UAB - ECU just upset Memphis but that was at their place. UAB is good at home and playing well as of late.
Southern Miss at Tulsa - The home loss to UAB surely stings but a bounce back needed here if they want to stay on the BUBBLE.
Nebraska at Colorado - The winner moves closer to an AT-LARGE spot. The loser probably needs to make at least a semifinal run in the conference tourney.
Atlantic Sun Championship (Teams TBD) - The favorite here is Belmont, who has played well in tournaments before and always a threat to make a first-round upset.
Ohio Valley Conference (Teams TBD) - Murray State is expected to win this crown but they have been susceptible to the upset this year.

SUNDAY
Wisconsin at Ohio State - If the Bucks get a win over the Badgers, I think they have the overall top seed locked up, no matter what happens in the conference tourney.
Kentucky at Tennessee - For as up and down Tennessee's season has been, I think they clinch a spot with a home win over the Wildcats.
Wake Forest at Boston College - Simply said, a loss to lowly Wake cannot happen if BC wants to make the NCAA Tournament.
Penn State at Minnesota - PSU is already just livin' on a prayer. They have to beat Minnesota, who hasn't won in what feels like months.
Florida State at NC State - I know NC State is not good but a win over them locks up FSU's spot. A loss though just keeps them in limbo a little longer.
Missouri Valley Championship (Teams TBD) - The presumed final is Wichita State vs. Missouri State. If that's the case, loser is on the BUBBLE and may/may not need help.

And that's all I got for now. Next update will come after Sunday night's games. Should be some movement as well as finally have some teams locked in the tournament. Of course, feel free to leave comments here on the blog or on Facebook or on my Twitter.

MB

2011 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 2

For the first time in the month of March, let me welcome you to Barnes Bracketology. Hard to believe we're down to around 10 days left until Selection Sunday (countdown clock above). with the conference tournaments about to begin, my job is about to really get fun on this blog. But for now, it's not too crazy as just some minor changes since the last post on Monday.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Not one change in this category as expected. Losses by Illinois and Virginia Tech who might have been able to lock up their spot prevented them from doing so.

LOCKS (30): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, George Mason, Old Dominion, Kansas State, UNLV, and UCLA.

AUTOS: No changes here as I am sticking with my predictions. I will say though that in one conference (MAC), one team is really getting hot and could easily be the best in the conference right now. For risk of jinxing them though, I will not type their name here on this blog until they win the conference tournament though like a year ago.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Long Beach State, Conference USA - UAB, Horizon - Butler, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Fairfield, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Bethune Cookman, Missouri Valley - Missouri State, Northeast -Long Island, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Charleston, Southland - McNeese State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic, WAC - Utah State, WCC -St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: As far as the teams are concerned, only one change as we welcome Boston College to the AT-LARGE ranks. This after handily defeating fellow AT-LARGE Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. They replace Alabama, who lost badly at Florida. A loss against a good team, yes, but also another loss that they just cannot afford when teams around them are winning.

Again, these are in order from most safe to least safe. I would say the top half of this group is in fairly good shape, unless they completely fall apart. The bottom half though needs to keep winning to feel good at all.

AT-LARGE (16): West Virginia, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Florida State, Washington, Marquette, Illinois, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, Tennessee, Georgia, Richmond, Cleveland State, Clemson, Memphis, and Boston College.

BUBBLE WATCH

During these two days of not so many games, I did a bit more bubble research, really trying hard to dissect their resumes. When I did that, I came to some conclusions. First, I was selling St. Mary's way too high. Second, I needed to dump Minnesota altogether. And finally, Michigan deserved to at least be in this category. So those changes have been made. I continue to leave teams live Valparaiso, Penn, State, VCU and UCF in this because well, I'm an optimist and think they still have a chance despite it looking like all need to win their conference tourneys to have a chance. So now, the new and improved order of BUBBLE teams.

BUBBLE (34): West Virginia, Utah State, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Florida State, Washington, Marquette, Illinois, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, St. Mary's, Tennessee, Georgia, Butler, UAB, Richmond, Cleveland State, Clemson, Memphis, Missouri State, Southern Miss, Nebraska, Michigan, Alabama, Colorado, Colorado State, Maryland, Baylor, Boston College, UTEP, VCU, Penn State, Valparaiso, and UCF.

SEEDING

Because of the small amount of games that could affect seeding, you won't find too many changes to the bracket among seeding. Now placement may be different, especially around the 7-12 range where it gets tough to place teams once you consider the NCAA regulations on making the bracket. Notre Dame is back to a 2 seed, knocking San Diego State down. Also, Kansas State and Temple move up to 6 seeds while Missouri and Villanova fall to 7 seeds. Other than that, just some minor moves you'll see.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (6), ACC (5), Big 12 (5), SEC (5), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), C-USA (2), Colonial (2), Horizon (2), WCC (2)


(click on bracket to enlarge)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHWEST vs. SOUTHEAST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

Team has moved up since last post
Team has moved down since last post

EAST REGION - Newark
#1 Ohio State (28-2) vs. #16 Murray State (23-7) - Cleveland
#2 Notre Dame (24-5) vs. #15 Bucknell (22-8) - Tucson
#3 San Diego State (28-2) vs. #14 Charleston (22-9) - Chicago
#4 Georgetown (21-8) vs. #13 Oakland (22-9) - Tucson
#5 Kentucky (21-8) vs. #12 Clemson (19-9)/Cleveland State (25-7) - Tucson
#6 Kansas State (21-9) vs. #11 St. Mary's (23-7) - Chicago
#7 George Mason (25-5) vs. #10 Virginia Tech (19-9) - Tucson
#8 UCLA (21-8) vs. #9 Cincinnati (22-6) - Cleveland

SOUTHWEST REGION - San Antonio
#1 Kansas (27-2) vs. #16 Montana (20-9)/Texas Southern (16-11) - Tulsa
#2 Purdue (25-5) vs. #15 Fairfield (23-6) - Chicago
#3 Florida (23-6) vs. #14 Vermont (22-7) - Tampa
#4 UConn (21-7) vs. #13 Belmont (27-4) - Denver
#5 Arizona (23-6) vs. #12 UAB (20-7) - Denver
#6 Temple (22-6) vs. #11 Butler (21-9) - Tampa
#7 Missouri (22-8) vs. #10 Gonzaga (22-9) - Chicago
#8 West Virginia (18-10) vs. #9 Florida State (20-8) - Tulsa

SOUTHEAST REGION - New Orleans
#1 Pittsburgh (25-3) vs. #16 Bethune-Cookman (19-11)/McNeese State (18-9) - Cleveland
#2 Texas (24-6) vs. #15 Long Beach State (19-10) - Tulsa
#3 Wisconsin (22-6) vs. #14 Coastal Carolina (27-4) - Washington D.C.
#4 North Carolina (22-6) vs. #13 Princeton (22-5) - Charlotte
#5 St. John's (19-9) vs. #12 Missouri State (22-7) - Charlotte
#6 Xavier (22-6) vs. #11 Tennessee (17-12) - Washington D.C.
#7 UNLV (22-7) vs. #10 Marquette (18-11) - Tulsa
#8 Utah State (26-3) vs. #9 Michigan State (16-12) - Cleveland

WEST REGION - Anaheim
#1 Duke (26-2) vs. #16 Florida Atlantic (21-9) - Charlotte
#2 BYU (27-2) vs. #15 Long Island (24-5) - Denver
#3 Syracuse (24-6) vs. #14 Kent State (20-10) - Washington D.C.
#4 Louisville (22-7) vs. #13 Memphis (21-8)/Boston College(18-11)- Tampa
#5 Vanderbilt (21-8) vs. #12 Richmond (22-7) - Tampa
#6 Texas A&M (22-6) vs. #11 Georgia (19-9) - Washington D.C.
#7 Villanova (21-9) vs. #10 Illinois (18-12) - Denver
#8 Old Dominion (24-6) vs. #9 Washington (19-9) - Charlotte

GAMES TO WATCH

WEDNESDAY
Texas A&M at Kansas - Kansas just got back to the 1 seed line. A loss here at home paves the way for BYU to take their spot.
Clemson at Duke - Clemson could pretty much clinch their spot with this huge road win. Plus, a Duke loss drops them from a 1 seed most likely.
North Carolina at Florida State - FSU is still in good shape but they'll be a LOCK if they pull off this upset at home.
UConn at West Virginia - See above, replace FSU with WV.
Iowa at Michigan State - Iowa has been a pest to each Big Ten team so far. MSU can't lose this game.
Memphis at East Carolina - The Tigers are barely in my bracket now. Just think what a loss to ECU would do.
Maryland at Miami (FL) - This won't be an easy win for Maryland but it's one that they have to have.
UAB at Southern Miss - A true bubble battle. Both teams fighting for their tourney lives. Winner gets a big boost.
Colorado at Iowa State - Colorado can't just stay alive on that Texas win. They lose this game, they're done.
LSU at Georgia - The Bulldogs are doing everything right. Winning games they are supposed to. This qualifies as one of those.
Cincinnati at Marquette - Marquette needs this game more as Cincy is fairly safe. Winner takes huge step to locking up their spot.
Utah at Colorado State - Colorado State is still alive but not sure if they will be if they lose at home to the Utes.
Marshall at UTEP - UTEP has some work to do to move up. A win over a 20-win Marshall team would help their cause.

THURSDAY
Tennessee at South Carolina - The Vols are such an enigma, and because of that, so is there tourney fate. This is a must-win for them in Columbia.
UCLA at Washington - UCLA is in. Washington probably would be too with this win at home.

Alright folks, that's all for now. Next update will come after Thursday night's action. And then, we'll have another after the weekend. Should be some movement as there are lots of games in the next two days that should affect seedings and placement. Of course, feel free to leave comments here on the blog or on Facebook or on my Twitter.

MB