New York Mets Manager: Jerry Manuel (2nd season) 2008 Record: 89-73 (2nd NL East)
Added: OF Jeremy Reed (SEA), SP Livan Hernandez (MIN), RP Francisco Rodriguez (LAA), RP J.J. Putz (SEA) Lost: OF Endy Chavez (SEA), RP Scott Schoenweis (AZ), RP Aaron Heilman (SEA), RP Joe Smith (CLE)
Projected Lineup (2008 Stats) 1. SS Jose Reyes (.297, 113 R, 16 HR, 68 RBI, 56 SB) 2. 2B Luis Castillo (.245, 46 R, 3 HR, 28 RBI, 17 SB) 3. CF Carlos Beltran (.284, 116 R, 27 HR, 112 RBI, 25 SB) 4. 3B David Wright (.302, 115 R, 33 HR, 124 RBI) 5. 1B Carlos Delgado (.271, 96 R, 38 HR, 115 RBI) 6. LF Daniel Murphy (.313, 24 R, 2 HR, 17 RBI) 7. RF Ryan Church (.276, 54 R, 12 HR, 49 RBI) 8. C Brian Schneider(.257, 30 R, 9 HR, 38 RBI)
Projected Starting Rotation (2008 Stats) 1. Johan Santana (16-7, 2.53 ERA, 206 K) 2. Mike Pelfrey (13-11, 3.72 ERA, 110 K) 3. Oliver Perez (10-7, 4.22 ERA, 180 K) 4. John Maine (10-8, 4.18 ERA, 122 K) 5. Livan Hernandez (13-11, 6.05 ERA, 67 K)
Bench C Ramon Castro, IF Marlon Anderson, IF Alex Cora, OF Fernando Tatis, OF Angel Pagan
Bullpen (2008 Stats for Closer only) Francisco Rodriguez (62 SV, 68.1 IP, 54 H, 77 K, 2.24 ERA), J.J. Putz, Pedro Feliciano, Sean Green, Brian Stokes, Carlos Muniz
Fantasy Studs: SS Jose Reyes, 3B David Wright, OF Carlos Beltran, SP Johan Santana, RP Francisco Rodriguez Fantasy Sleepers: OF Daniel Murphy, SP Oliver Perez
Men In The Minors: 1B Nick Evans, SS Reese Havens, OF Fernando Martinez, SP Jon Niese
Home Ballpark: Citi Field (Grade Incomplete - New Ballpark)
Team Outlook: It was another busy offseason for GM Omar Minaya and the Mets. After another regular season with no playoff berth, the Mets think they finally have what they need now. It starts with the pitching. Santana was his usual dominant self but he didn't get much help from Perez, Pelfrey and Maine. All three have great stuff and 15-win potential. If they help Santana out, this staff will be one of the best in the NL. The bullpen looks great with the additions of Rodriguez and Putz. Both have closer experience and are lights out when it matters. The rest of the bullpen isn't amazing but they should be able to overcome that. The lineup looks strong again with no real changes from last season. Reyes's numbers are expected to be even better. Beltran, Wright and Delgado make for a potent 3-4-5 combo, no matter what order they are. The one to watch may be Murphy though, who while young, carries a big stick and could have a great rookie year. It seems once again the pieces are in place for this team to make a deep run but lately, this team has been all about falling short of expectations. The NL East is better this year so expect them to contend, but it'll be a fight to the finish to win the division.
Team Outlook: If there were ever a team that does more with less, it is the Minnesota Twins. Under the guidance of one of the best managers in baseball in Ron Gardenhire, the twins just seem to always be in the mix. The starting pitching doesn't look that great on paper but expect them to be solid. Baker and Liriano are stars. The other 3 though are question marks. How they do will make or break their season. The bullpen still has Nathan, so if this team is winning going into the 8th or 9th inning, forget it. The batting order has potential to be amazing. Span is a star in the making and a good leadoff hitter. Mauer and Morneau are gonna be great as usual. Crede is a solid pick-up and if Young can get his overall game together, he could make a huge impact on this team. All in all, the Twins look like a boring team lacking stars. But again, they've been like that for awhile now and yet, keep winning. And in a division with no clear front-runner, don't be surprised to see them win it in 2009.
Milwaukee Brewers Manager: Ken Macha (1st season) 2008 Record: 90-72 (2nd NL Central) Postseason: NLDS Loss vs. PHI
Added: SP Braden Looper (STL), RP Trevor Hoffman (SD), RP Jorge Julio (ATL) Lost: IF Russell Branyan (SEA), OF Laynce Nix (CIN), SP C.C. Sabathia (NYY), RP Derrick Turnbow (TEX)
Team Outlook: After a playoff appearance in 2008, there is a lot of optimism for this 2009 squad. Losing Sabathia though is a big loss, especially with the way he pitched. The pitching staff in 2009 though isn't terrible. Gallardo didn't pitch much in 2008 but expect big numbers from him in 2009. He has tons of potential. Suppan and Bush provide some veteran arms. Looper has pitched well before as a starter and if healthy, will be a welcome addition. The bullpen isn't terrible either. They have some quality arms. Unfortunately, Hoffman is not one of them. he;s a closer near the end of his career. Don't expect him to finish the year as the closer. The batting lineup is strong though and should put up plenty of runs. Weeks and Cameron provide speed at the top while Braun and Fielder provide the pop in the middle. Hardy and Hart are great at the 5 and 6 spots, and Hall at 7 could be dangerous for opposing pitchers. This team has the potential to make another run at the playoffs this year. If the pitching is steady and they stay pretty much injury-free, look out for the Brew Crew once again.
Los Angeles Dodgers Manager: Joe Torre (2nd season) 2008 Record: 84-78 (1st NL West) Postseason: ALDS Win vs. CHC, ALCS Loss to PHI
Added: 2B Orlando Hudson (ARZ), IF Mark Loretta (HOU), SP Randy Wolf (HOU), Jeff Weaver (SEA), RP Claudio Vargas (NYM), RP Guillermo Mota (MIL) Lost: RP Takashi Saito (BOS), RP Chan Ho Park (PHI), RP Scott Proctor (FLA)
Team Outlook: I'm really torn on this team. The lineup may be the best in baseball but the starting rotation is definitely in the bottom half of MLB. We'll start with the lineup. What's so dangerous about this lineup is that they are solid in every aspect. If it's getting on base you want, then not one player had an batting average less than .270 last season. If if it's speed you want, you'll see that in at least 3 players in Furcal, Kemp and Martin. And don't forget the speedy Pierre off the bench. And if it's power, well, that's covered as well. But the pitching is where it matters for this team. Billingsley is budding into a star. Kuroda started strong but ended with a thud. A big thud. Kershaw has tons of potential but when will he realize it is the big question. Randy Wolf has always been a .500 pitcher. And rookie James McDonald, well, who knows? This rotation is not strong and in the end, may really hurt this team. The bullpen is anchored by Broxton, who was strong last season but didn't close the entire year. This team has all the potential in the world to be the highest-scoring team in baseball. But if the pitching doesn't keep up with its hitting, then this is not going to a happy ending in Hollywood.
Team Outlook: For the past few years, the AL West has been all about the Angels. Well, that may change this year for once. After winning 100 games and having the best regular season record in baseball, I don't see this year's edition having the same success. Let's start with the lineup. The top four is strong. When healthy, Figgins is a great place-setter. And with Hunter, Abreu and Guerrero following, it's not going to be easy for any pitcher. But after those 4, it really drops off. Kendrick could be something special but I don't see much hope for the rest. The pitching isn't that bad but it's also not that great. Lackey will win his usual 15 games and when Santana comes back in May, he'll be good. But expect a fall to reality for Saunders, who won 17 last season. Weaver has great stuff but is still inconsistent. And Moseley and Adenhart are unproven. The bullpen also will suffer without the services of all-times saves leader Francisco Rodriguez. Fuentes is a fine replacement but expect more blown saves this year. The team may still win this division but the days of 100 wins are unlikely. But they do have one of the best managers in the game so I wouldn't be too surprised if they prove me wrong.
Kansas City Royals Manager: Trey Hillman (2nd season) 2008 Record: 75-87 (4th AL Central)
Added: 1B Mike Jacobs (FLA), OF Coco Crisp (BOS), RP Kyle Farnsworth (DET), P Horacio Ramirez (CWS), RP Doug Waechter (FLA) Lost: 2B Mark Grudzielanek (FA), OF Joey Gathright (CHC), RP Jose Capellan (HOU), RP Leo Nunez (FLA), RP Ramon Ramirez (BOS)
Projected Lineup (2008 Stats) 1. CF Coco Crisp (.283, 55 R, 7 HR, 41 RBI, 20 SB) 2. SS Mike Aviles (.325, 68 R, 10 HR, 51 RBI) 3. LF David DeJesus (.307, 70 R, 12 HR, 73 RBI) 4. RF Jose Guillen (.264, 66 R, 20 HR, 97 RBI) 5. 1B Mike Jacobs (.247, 67 R, 32 HR, 93 RBI) 6. DH Billy Butler (.275, 44 R, 11 HR, 55 RBI) 7. 3B Alex Gordon (.260, 72 R, 16 HR, 59 RBI) 8. C Miguel Olivo (.255, 29 R, 12 HR, 41 RBI) 9. 2B Alberto Callapso (.305, 21 R, 0 HR, 16 RBI)
Bench C John Buck, IF Ryan Shealy, IF/OF Mark Teahen, IF Ross Gload, IF Willie Bloomquist, IF Tony Pena Jr.
Bullpen (2008 Stats for Closer only) Joakim Soria (42 SV, 67.1 IP, 39 H, 66 K, 1.60 ERA), Kyle Farnsworth, Ron Mahay, Juan Cruz, Joel Peralta, Doug Waechter, John Bale
Team Outlook: Call me crazy but I think the Royals are on the rise. That's right. Last year's 75-87 record looks bad but in reality, that was quite an improvement for this team. Not to mention they didn't finish in the cellar (thanks to the Tigers). This year's team is even better too. It starts with the lineup. There is speed at the top, thanks to Crisp. Plenty of pop in the middle, with Guillen and the addition of Jacobs. And even the bottom of the lineup has potential with guys like Gordon and Callapso. And with players like Teahen, Buck and Bloomquist on the bench, they have depth as well. The pitching staff isn't as bad as the numbers may suggest either. Meche should be much improved. Greinke has #1 starter written all over him, thanks to his electric stuff. Bannister is expected to rebound from an off year. And Davies and Hochevar showed promise at times. The bullpen has gotten a makeover. Farnsworth should be a great set-up guy for the most underrated closer in baseball in Soria. If this pitching staff pitches consistently and Meche and Greinke in particular win 15-18 games, this team could be the 2009 version of the 2008 Rays. Maybe not all the way to the World Series but enough young talent to shock the baseball world and win a division title.
Added: C Ivan Rodriguez (DET), OF Jason Michaels (PIT), SP Mike Hampton (ATL) Lost: IF Mark Loretta (LAD), IF Jose Castillo (WAS), RP Micah Bowie (COL)
Team Outlook: Not really sure what to think of this team. There's plenty of talent but not sure if the actual execution will happen. If you look at the lineup, there's plenty of pop in those bats. It's not going to be easy for any pitching staff to maneuver through the 3-4-5 hitters of Berkman, Lee and Pence. You can even add Tejada in the 2 spot to that mix, though he is starting to show signs of aging. Picking up Pudge is good for this team and with so many young pitchers in the stable for the team, he could be more valuable than they know. The pitching staff is full of question marks though. After Oswalt, there's no guarantee of how anyone else will do. Hampton has spent more time on the disabled list than the active roster in the past 3 seasons. Moehler has never been "lights out" and Capellan is full of potential but hasn't thrown under the birght lights yet. Russ Ortiz is also in camp but he didn't even pitch in 2008. Thankfully, they have one of the better bullpens in the NL. The NL Central isn't the toughest division in MLB but it may be tough enough that the Astros may have a better chance of winning it in 2010 and not 2009.
Added: RP Scott Proctor (LAD), RP Leo Nunez (KC) Lost: C Matt Treanor (DET), 1B Mike Jacobs (KC), OF Josh Willingham (WAS), SP Mark Hendrickson (BAL), SP Scott Olsen (WAS), RP Kevin Gregg (CHC), RP Justin Miller (SF), RP Arthur Rhodes (CIN), RP Doug Waechter (KC)
Bench C Mike Rabelo, IF Wes Helms, IF/OF Alfredo Amezaga, 3B Dallas McPherson
Bullpen (2008 Stats for Closer only) Matt Lindstrom (5 SV, 57.1 IP, 57 H, 43 K, 3.14 ERA), Scott Proctor, Leo Nunez, Taylor Tankersley, Dan Meyer, Renyel Pinto
Team Outlook: If you are a fan of addition by subtraction, then this year's Florida Marlins are your team. After losing two starters in the infield, two starters, and most of their bullpen, the team is hoping the young guys stepping in will make an impact. The pitching doesn't look all that bad. Every young arm they have has great potential to be great and some have already shown it. If all of them can pitch consistently and win 10-15 games, watch out. The bullpen though is shaky at best. Proctor is a good pickup but I'm not sold on any of the other arms. As far as the hitters, yet again, this is not a lineup you want to face. Maybin is going to be a star in the Majors, as long as he keeps his strikeouts to a minimum. Hermida is slowly growing into a 4-tool player. Ramirez is the best hitter at his position and the same could be said for Uggla. Cantu had a resurgent year last season and Ross contributed too. Sanchez and Baker aren't bad 7-8 hitters either. The big argument against this team is that they are just so young. With no veteran leadership, how well can they really do? Only time will tell and in a division that is chock full of talented teams (except Washington), it may not be as well as they would like.
AUTO: The biggest news is that Mississippi State has burst yet another team's bubble by securing a spot in the field with theri SEC title game win. I also put Stephen F. Austin in bold after two weeks of projecting they would win.
AUTO (24):Binghamton (Am. East), East Tennessee St (A-Sun), Temple (A-10),Portland State (Big Sky), Radford (Big South), Cal State Northridge (Big West), VCU (Colonial), Cleveland State (Horizon), Cornell (Ivy), Siena (MAAC), Akron (MAC), Morgan St (MEAC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Morehead St (Ohio Valley), USC (Pac-10), American (Patriot), Mississippi State (SEC), Chattanooga (SoCon), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Alabama St (SWAC), ND State (Summit), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), and Utah St (WAC).
AT-LARGE: Sorry Arizona. But thanks to Mississippi State, your bubble has burst. Down to two spots and SDSU and Maryland are the teams I think will get in.
AT-LARGE (2):San Diego State and Maryland
BUBBLE WATCH
9 bubble teams and just two spots. After a fun two weeks, I think these are the nine teams who will be biting their nails until they hear their name announced tonight. And if they don't get in, hey, there's always the NIT right?
BUBBLE (9): San Diego State, Maryland, Arizona, Penn State, UNLV, St. Mary's, Creighton,Auburn, and Providence.
SEEDING
Alright, I have made some major changes to the bracket. These are the last of my major changes. My one seeds have changed as UConn is now a 2 seed after a dominating performance by Memphis. Syracuse has moved up to a 3 seed due to their deep run, dropping Wake Forest to a 4 seed. Florida State is also up a seed while LSU drops one. Ohio State jumps from 9 to 7. Teams moving up just a seed include Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Xavier, and Utah State. Some teams fell for various reasons. Most of those reasons dealing with just trying to balance the bracket.
UPDATE: Mississippi State's win puts them in the bracket. They could have simply replaced Arizona, but that would mean two SEC teams in that region which makes no sense when there are going to just be 3 teams in. So I replaced Arizona with USC and put Mississippi State in USC's spot.
Also, with OSU-Purdue going on right now, here is how my final bracket will look depending on the outcome of the game. If Purdue wins, they will swap spots with Arizona State in the South Region. If OSU wins, they will swap spots with Gonzaga in the East Region.
SOUTH-WEST vs. MIDWEST-EAST (Click on bracket for enlarged version)
SOUTH REGION (Memphis) 1 North Carolina vs. 16 Morgan State (Greensboro) 2 Oklahoma vs. 15 Stephen F. Austin (Kansas City) 3 Villanova vs. 14 Akron (Philadelphia) 4 Arizona State vs. 13 Western Kentucky (Portland) 5 Purdue vs. 12 Temple (Portland) 6 Clemson vs. 11 Wisconsin (Philadelphia) 7 Marquette vs. 10 San Diego State (Kansas City) 8 Oklahoma State vs. 9 Utah State (Greensboro)
MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis) 1 Louisville vs. 16 Chattanooga/Cal State Northridge (Dayton) 2 Michigan State vs. 15 Robert Morris (Minneapolis) 3 Missouri vs. 14 Binghamton (Boise) 4 Florida State vs. 13 Cleveland State (Miami) 5 LSU vs. 12 Michigan (Miami) 6 West Virginia vs. 11 USC (Boise) 7 Utah vs. 10 Boston College (Minneapolis) 8 California vs. 9 Siena (Dayton) EAST REGION (Boston) 1 Pittsburgh vs. 16 Morehead State (Dayton) 2 Duke vs. 15 East Tennessee State (Greensboro) 3 Syracuse vs 14 Cornell (Minneapolis) 4 Washington vs. 13 North Dakota State (Portland) 5 Xavier vs. 12 Northern Iowa (Portland) 6 Gonzaga vs. 11 Mississippi State (Minneapolis) 7 Ohio State vs. 10 Texas A+M (Greensboro) 8 BYU vs. 9 Minnesota (Dayton)
WEST REGION (Phoenix) 1 Memphis vs. 16 Alabama State (Kansas City) 2 UConn vs. 15 Radford (Philadelphia) 3 Kansas vs. 14 Portland State (Boise) 4 Wake Forest vs. 13 American (Miami) 5 UCLA vs. 12 VCU (Miami) 6 Illinois vs. 11 Maryland (Boise) 7 Tennessee vs. 10 Dayton (Philadelphia) 8 Butler vs. 9 Texas (Kansas City)
MY BRACKETOLOGY GOALS
1. Get 63 out of 65 teams correct 2. Do not miss any team's seed by more than 2 3. Have 14 out of 16 right among the top 4 seeds AND have them in correct locations 4. Get all 4 top seeds correct AND in correct region/location 5. Have all my LOCKS get in. (It would be embarassing if they did not) 6. Correctly match up 8 out of 32 matchups. (This is a puzzle that can be done multiple ways. If I match up 25%, I'll be ecstatic)
Well, it's been fun folks. Hope you enjoyed the first ever Barnes Bracketology. Thanks for checking it out. Selection Show is just moments away!!!
Detroit Tigers Manager: Jim Leyland (4th season) 2008 Record: 74-88 (5th AL Central)
Added: C Gerald Laird (TEX), C Matt Treanor (FLA), SS Adam Everett (MIN), SP Edwin Jackson (TB), RP Brandon Lyon (ARZ) Lost: C Ivan Rodriguez (Unsigned), SS Edgar Renteria (SF), OF Matt Joyce (TB), RP Kyle Farnsworth (KC), RP Todd Jones (Retired), RP Jason Grilli (COL)
Team Outlook: Remember last season when the Tigers were picked by many to win it all thanks to their offseason acquisitions. But instead of ascending to the top, the Tigers descended to the dungeon, finishing in last, even behind the Royals. This season, the Tigers hope to live up to those 2008 expectations. It all starts with the pitching. Last year was awful for them. Verlander had a terrible season. Bonderman was sidelined for most of the season due to a blood clot. And Dontrelle Willis was in a word, dreadful. The only bright spot was Galarraga, who did a nice job filling in. Jackson is a good pick-up and should help stabilize the rotation. Everyone else just needs to improve on bad 2008 seasons. The bullpen has Zumaya and Rodney back healthy and added Brandon Lyon to replace the veteran Todd Jones as closer. The lineup wasn't the problem last year. The Tigers scored plenty of runs and hit plenty of homers. The bottom of the lineup though this year is weaker with Inge and Everett barely batting over .200 last year. Plus, Sheffield is about at the end of his career so don't expect great numbers from him. If the pitching has a dramatic turnaround (which with these young arms is very much possible), then the Tigers will be a force. But if the pitching falters, they'll just be a farce, for the second year in a row.
Alright, so there are 9 bubble teams in my mind fighting for 3 spots. I have dissected their resumes and am now going to let you decide for yourself who you think deserves the final 3 spots. Feel free to throw it in the comments section.
Key: SOS = Strength of Schedule, Quality Wins = Win over top-75 RPI), Bad Losses = Loss vs. below-100 RPI, Good Losses = Loss vs. top-75 RPI
IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER
Arizona (19-13) RPI: 63 SOS: 32 Quality Wins: San Diego State, Gonzaga, Kansas, Washington, USC, UCLA Bad Losses: Stanford, Washington State Good Losses: UAB, Texas A+M, UNLV, California (2), UCLA, USC, Washington, Arizona State (3) W-L vs. RPI Top 50: 6-9, W-L vs. RPI Top 100: 8-12 Conference W-L: 9-9, Conference Tourney: 0-1
Auburn (21-11) RPI: 57 SOS: 67 Quality Wins: Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State, Florida Bad Losses: Mercer Good Losses: LSU, Xavier, Dayton, Northern Iowa, South Carolina, Florida W-L vs. RPI Top 50: 2-4, W-L vs. RPI Top 100: 6-10 Conference W-L: 10-6, Conference Tourney: 1-1
Creighton (26-7) RPI: 41 SOS: 112 Quality Wins: New Mexico, Dayton, Northern Iowa, George Mason, Illinois State Bad Losses: Drake, Wichita State Good Losses: Northern Iowa, Illinois State (2) W-L vs. RPI Top 50: 2-2, W-L vs. RPI Top 100: 9-6 Conference W-L: 14-4, Conference Tourney: 1-1
Maryland (20-13) RPI: 51 SOS: 22 Quality Wins: Michigan State, Michigan, American, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Wake Forest Bad Losses: Morgan State, Virginia Good Losses: Gonzaga, Miami (FL), Florida State, Duke (3), Boston College, North Carolina, Wake Forest W-L vs. RPI Top 50: 4-7, W-L vs. RPI Top 100: 8-10 Conference W-L: 7-9, Conference Tourney: 2-1
Penn State (22-11) RPI: 68 SOS: 87 Quality Wins: Illinois (2), Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue, Minnesota Bad Losses: Iowa Good Losses: Rhode Island, Temple, Wisconsin (2), Michigan State, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, Purdue (2) W-L vs. RPI Top 50: 6-9, W-L vs. RPI Top 100: 7-10 Conference W-L: 10-8, Conference Tourney: 1-1
Providence (19-13) RPI: 71 SOS: 50 Quality Wins: Rhode Island, Syracuse, Pittsburgh Bad Losses: None Good Losses: Baylor, Boston College, St. Mary's, Marquette, UConn, Villanova (2), Louisville (2) W-L vs. RPI Top 50: 2-8, W-L vs. RPI Top 100: 6-13 Conference W-L: 10-8, Conference Tourney: 1-1
St. Mary's (24-6) RPI: 47 SOS: 148 Quality Wins: Providence, San Diego State, Utah State Bad Losses: Portland, Santa Clara Good Losses: Gonzaga (3) W-L vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3, W-L vs. RPI Top 100: 3-4 Conference W-L: 10-4, Conference Tourney: 2-1
San Diego State (21-9) RPI: 31 SOS: 51 Quality Wins: New Mexico, Utah, UNLV (3), BYU Bad Losses: None Good Losses: Arizona State, Arizona, St. Mary's, BYU (2), Utah (2), New Mexico W-L vs. RPI Top 50: 1-5, W-L vs. RPI Top 100: 7-8 Conference W-L: 11-5, Conference Tourney: 2-1
UNLV (21-10) RPI: 65 SOS: 81 Quality Wins: Arizona, Louisville, BYU (2), Utah, New Mexico Bad Losses: TCU, Colorado State Good Losses: California, San Diego State (3), Utah, New Mexico W-L vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5, W-L vs. RPI Top 100: 9-8 Conference W-L: 9-7, Conference Tourney: 0-1
Well, as expected, Saturday would all but solidify my projected field and for the most part, it did. I am down to what I think are 3 at-large spots that I am absolutely sure about. In fact, I am going to have an extra post to share with you the 9 teams I think are worthy of the last 3 spots and show you just how tough this decision is. For now, check out the update. And note, this is the EARLY version. I will have a FINAL bracket after the first wave of games.
MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65 (new teams in italics)
LOCKS: After days of holding off, I have given in and moved in the best of the BUBBLE teams and moved them into the LOCK category. These teams haven't moved out of the bubble watch for a reason and it is because their status in the tournament had pretty much been secured, despite early exits in their conference tournaments. There are 6 in all, moving the number in thsi category to 39.
AUTO: Lot of new teams in bold here. Some of them (America, Binghamton, Morgan State, Temple, Alabama St and Utah St) were already here. Two teams (Akron and Cal State Northridge) replaced a team, thanks to a conference championship. And another was added (USC) because the only way they made the field of 65 is by winning the conference tourney.
AUTO (23):Binghamton (Am. East), East Tennessee St (A-Sun), Temple (A-10),Portland State (Big Sky), Radford (Big South), Cal State Northridge (Big West), VCU (Colonial), Cleveland State (Horizon), Cornell (Ivy), Siena (MAAC), Akron (MAC), Morgan St (MEAC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Morehead St (Ohio Valley), USC (Pac-10), American (Patriot), Chattanooga (SoCon), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Alabama St (SWAC), ND State (Summit), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), and Utah St (WAC).
AT-LARGE: So with the mass exodus of 6 teams to LOCK status and another AT-LARGE spot taken thanks to the win by USC, that leaves just 3 spots in the category. I am going with these 3 teams to be the final ones in.
AT-LARGE (3):San Diego State, Maryland, and Arizona
BUBBLE WATCH
I am excited to say that the bubble watch is officially down to 9 teams. Auburn is a late addition to the fray, thanks to their impressive performance in the SC tournament. That and their play as of late has been noteworthy and may catch the eye of the committee. These are in order of what I think. don't forget to check out my special Bubble Teams special so you can decide who you think should grab those final spots.
BUBBLE (9): San Diego State, Arizona, Maryland, Penn State, UNLV, St. Mary's, Creighton, Auburn, and Providence.
SEEDING
Alright, I have made some major changes to the bracket. These are the last of my major changes. My one seeds have changed as UConn is now a 2 seed after a dominating performance by Memphis. Syracuse has moved up to a 3 seed due to their deep run, dropping Wake Forest to a 4 seed. Florida State is also up a seed while LSU drops one. Ohio State jumps from 9 to 7. Teams moving up just a seed include Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Xavier, and Utah State. Some teams fell for various reasons. Most of those reasons dealing with just trying to balance the bracket.
So here's the deal. This is the first draft for Sunday. This is because of the SEC Championship. If Mississippi State wins, I have to change my bracket. The other games won't really have an effect on my bracket. So after the 1pm games, I will release my FINAL bracket. The one to be judged against the committee's version. I have already made arrangements for all the games but I don't want to confuse you with what they are. So again, after the 1pm games, check back around 3:30 (right before the Big Ten Championship) and you'll see my final bracket.
SOUTH-WEST vs. MIDWEST-EAST (Click on bracket for enlarged version)
SOUTH REGION (Memphis) 1 North Carolina vs. 16 Morgan State (Greensboro) 2 Oklahoma vs. 15 Stephen F. Austin (Kansas City) 3 Villanova vs. 14 Akron (Philadelphia) 4 Arizona State vs. 13 Western Kentucky (Portland) 5 Purdue vs. 12 Temple (Portland) 6 Clemson vs. 11 Wisconsin (Philadelphia) 7 Marquette vs. 10 San Diego State (Kansas City) 8 Oklahoma State vs. 9 Utah State (Greensboro)
MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis) 1 Louisville vs. 16 Chattanooga/Cal State Northridge (Dayton) 2 Michigan State vs. 15 Robert Morris (Minneapolis) 3 Missouri vs. 14 Binghamton (Boise) 4 Florida State vs. 13 Cleveland State (Miami) 5 LSU vs. 12 Michigan (Miami) 6 West Virginia vs. 11 Arizona (Boise) 7 Utah vs. 10 Boston College (Minneapolis) 8 California vs. 9 Siena (Dayton) EAST REGION (Boston) 1 Pittsburgh vs. 16 Morehead State (Dayton) 2 Duke vs. 15 East Tennessee State (Greensboro) 3 Syracuse vs 14 Cornell (Minneapolis) 4 Washington vs. 13 North Dakota State (Portland) 5 Xavier vs. 12 Northern Iowa (Portland) 6 Gonzaga vs. 11 USC (Minneapolis) 7 Ohio State vs. 10 Texas A+M (Greensboro) 8 BYU vs. 9 Minnesota (Dayton)
WEST REGION (Phoenix) 1 Memphis vs. 16 Alabama State (Kansas City) 2 UConn vs. 15 Radford (Philadelphia) 3 Kansas vs. 14 Portland State (Boise) 4 Wake Forest vs. 13 American (Miami) 5 UCLA vs. 12 VCU (Miami) 6 Illinois vs. 11 Maryland (Boise) 7 Tennessee vs. 10 Dayton (Philadelphia) 8 Butler vs. 9 Texas (Kansas City) SUNDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH Florida State vs. Duke (ACC Championship) - Pretty sure FSU locks up a top-4 seed and an easy trip to Miami with a win over the Blue Devils. Mississippi State vs. Tennessee (SEC Championship) - The bubble teams hoping to get in better hope the Vols win this. If not, the Bulldogs are bursting a bubble and crashing the dance. Ohio State vs. Purdue (Big Ten Championship) - OSU could see their stock rise dramatically with a win in the tournament. Same goes for Purdue as well.
Alright, make sure you check in tomorrow to see the final version as well as my special post around noon specifically geared toward the bubble teams. You can be the judge on the final 3 teams in. I have made my choices but you have a voice too. Just leave it in the comments section.
Added: SP Jason Marquis (CHC), SP Greg Smith (OAK), RP Huston Street (OAK), RP Alan Embree (OAK), RP Jose Capellan (KC) Lost: OF Matt Holliday (OAK), OF Willy Taveras (HOU), RP Brian Fuentes (LAA), RP Luis Vizcaino (CHC)
Team Outlook: Hard to believe that this team was in the World Series just 2 years ago. Now, they look like a team not looking to cling the standings, but just hoping the division falls to them. Losing Holliday is a huge loss to the lineup. They still have some young bats (excluding Helton) so there is hope that he won't be missed too much. The pitching staff is what needs the most work. Cook was a pleasant surprise last season. Marquis is a solid pickup but he's notorious for being inconsistent. Jimenez needs to come up big as well. They will be without Jeff Francis in 2009 due to injury, and he may be the best pitcher in the organization. The bullpen though is much improved. They lost Fuentes but picked up Street. Corpas should be just fine closing games but if not, Street has experience doing that. The rest of the bullpen has some fine arms as well. Clint Hurdle is a fine manager and will do all he can to get the most out of this team. I just don't think there's more than 85 wins to squeeze out of them though.
You don't need me to tell you that Selection Sunday is just around the corner. You don't even need to check the countdown at the top of this blog. No, you can feel Selection Sunday in the air. Every game is that much more intense. Every shot is that much harder to make. Every announcer's call has that extra excitement in it. And every result could make or break a team's chances into getting into the field of 65. This is why I love March Madness.
MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65 (new teams in italics)
LOCKS: No new teams in the category but I can tell you this. A handful of the teams in the AT-LARGE category are pretty much a LOCK but thanks to losses in their conference tournament, they don't get the luxury of moving up to this section. But they should still feel comfortable about their standing.
AUTO: We have a couple new things to report here. First, it's time to put American in bold as they won the Patriot League tournament. Also, Pacific is my new projected pick to win the Big West. However, the biggest change is that thanks to upsets in the Atlantic-10 tournament, a spot has been taken from the AT-LARGE category and moved to the AUTO category. That is not good news for BUBBLE teams.
AUTO (22):Binghamton (Am. East), East Tennessee St (A-Sun), Temple (A-10),Portland State (Big Sky), Radford (Big South), Pacific (Big West), VCU (Colonial), Cleveland State (Horizon), Cornell (Ivy), Siena (MAAC), Buffalo (MAC), Morgan St (MEAC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Morehead St (Ohio Valley), American (Patriot), Chattanooga (SoCon), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Alabama St (SWAC), ND State (Summit), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), and Utah St (WAC).
AT-LARGE: Yet again, the amount of AT-LARGE spots shrink. This time, not because a team moved up to LOCK status. No, this time due to upsets. The funny thing is that every team in this category that played lost (except St. Mary's, which played a meaningless game against Eastern Washington), meaning no one really helped themselves. Some losses hurt more than others. The worst of them being South Carolina's loss to Mississippi State, giving them a one and done in a weak SEC tournament. Meanwhile, welcome in San Diego State, thanks to another big win, this time against LOCK BYU. They move into the vacated spot by South Carolina. And with the decrease in open spots, St. Mary's is odd man out.
AT-LARGE (10): BYU, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan,Dayton, BC, San Diego State, Penn State, Arizona, and UNLV.
BUBBLE WATCH
Another day of games and another shuffle among the BUBBLE teams. The biggest casualties were Florida (vs. Auburn) and Virginia Tech (vs. North Carolina). With those losses, their bubbles have been burst. No teams have been added to the list. Some may argue Auburn or USC deserve consideration, but the regular season resume is just too weak to reach this status because of a decent run in their conference tournament. Meanwhile, it's time to also cut ties with Davidson. Stephen Curry and company needed a lot of dominoes to fall and they simply just haven't fallen for them. So we are down to 17 teams for 10 spots.
BUBBLE (17): BYU, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Dayton, BC, San Diego State, Utah State, Penn State, Arizona, UNLV, St. Mary's, Maryland, Creighton, Temple, and Providence.
SEEDING
Yet again, we have some changes among the bracket. The top 4 seeds did not change except that Louisville and Memphis swapped spots. In the 5-8 range, Florida State is up to a 5, replacing Xavier which falls to a 6. Butler falls to a 7 for seeding purposes. In the 9-12 range, lots of moving to accommodate new teams in SDSU and Temple. Siena goes up to a 9, Utah State falls to a 10 and Dayton falls to an 11. The 13-16 range saw the most moves because I had been putting off doing any research for those seeds until tonight, when I vowed to do it. So now, they are a bit more accurate to their RPI rankings and W-L records and not how they were ranked, which was familiarity to me.
SOUTH-WEST vs. MIDWEST-EAST (Click on bracket for enlarged version)
SOUTH REGION (Memphis) 1 North Carolina vs. 16 Morgan State (Greensboro) 2 Michigan State vs. 15 Robert Morris (Minneapolis) 3 Villanova vs. 14 Cornell (Philadelphia) 4 Syracuse vs. 13 Buffalo (Boise) 5 Arizona State vs. 12 Northern Iowa (Boise) 6 Clemson vs. 11 Dayton (Philadelphia) 7 Gonzaga vs. 10 San Diego State (Minneapolis) 8 Texas A+M vs. 9 Ohio State (Greensboro)
MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis) 1 Pittsburgh vs. 16 Chattanooga/Alabama St (Dayton) 2 Oklahoma vs. 15 ETSU (Kansas City) 3 Wake Forest vs. 14 Binghamton (Miami) 4 LSU vs. 13 Cleveland State (Miami) 5 Purdue vs. 12 VCU (Miami) 6 Marquette vs. 11 Minnesota (Miami) 7 California vs. 10 Utah State (Kansas City) 8 BYU vs. 9 Boston College (Dayton) EAST REGION (Boston) 1 UConn vs. 16 Morehead State (Philadelphia) 2 Duke vs. 15 Radford (Greensboro) 3 Missouri vs 14 American (Minneapolis) 4 UCLA vs. 13 Western Kentucky (Portland) 5 Illinois vs. 12 Temple (Portland) 6 West Virginia vs. 11 Arizona (Minneapolis) 7 Utah vs. 10 Wisconsin (Greensboro) 8 Tennessee vs. 9 Oklahoma State (Philadelphia)
WEST REGION (Phoenix) 1 Louisville vs. 16 Pacific (Dayton) 2 Memphis vs. 15 Stephen F. Austin (Kansas City) 3 Kansas vs. 14 Portland State (Boise) 4 Washington vs. 13 ND State (Portland) 5 Florida State vs. 12 Penn State (Portland) 6 Xavier vs. 11 UNLV (Boise) 7 Butler vs. 10 Michigan (Kansas City) 8 Texas vs. 9 Siena (Dayton) SATURDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH Tulsa vs. Memphis (Conference USA Championship) - Memphis could still earn a #1 seed with a Louisville loss. A Tulsa win would be devastating to bubble teams. Florida State vs. North Carolina - UNC has the top overall seed wrapped up. FSU is hoping to get into the 4-seed conversation, replacing a team like UCLA. Ohio State vs. Michigan State - OSU is safely in and just playing for pride now. MSU is probably stuck at a 2-seed no matter what. Mississippi State vs. LSU - Every bubble team just wants LSU to win this tournament. I think the committee is secretly rooting for that as well so the SEC can be represented in the top 4 seeds. Auburn vs. Tennessee - Auburn probably won't get an at-large so winning the tournament is their only ticket into the Big Dance. Maryland vs. Duke - I'm not sold on Maryland being in the tournament. I will be with an upset of the Blue Devils. This game really has no meaning for Duke. Purdue vs. Illinois - Winner of this game could grab a 4-seed with a Big Ten Tournament championship. USC vs. Arizona State - Every bubble team should be cheering for ASU big time. A win by USC takes away yet another at-large spot. Duquense vs. Temple (Atlantic 10 Championship) - Winner is guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance, something neither team had a chance of getting until their upset wins in the semis. Baylor vs. Missouri (Big 12 Championship) - The Bears are making the run of a lifetime. If they cap it off with a win, another at-large spot is gone. This game won't affect Missouri's status at all. San Diego State vs. Utah (Mountain West Championship) - Mad props to SDSU for this late run to really be in the at-large mix. They should be fine even with a loss. Utah is just hoping to gain a better seed. Syracuse vs. Louisville - The Cardinals are a win away from a Big East regular season and tournament championship. That screams #1 seed and may even push UConn down to a 2-seed. Syracuse can do no better than a 4-seed, where they are now. Nevada vs. Utah State - Nevada could play double-spoiler. They could take another at-large spot and/or ruin Utah State's chances of playing in the NCAA Tournament. It will be a close call on Selection Sunday if they lose this one.
Alright, there it is. Tomorrow, I will make out my final bracket. There are very few games on Sunday so what I throw out there is what I will be going with. Many of the at-large bids will be figured out tomorrow. Comments are appreciated below. Until tomorrow, enjoy the conference tournament craziness. Selection Sunday is TOMORROW!
All views, opinions and statements expressed on this website and related blog are exclusively those of Matt Barnes, who assumes full responsibility for all content opinions, statements and other content present herein.
New York Mets
Posts
