Barnes Bracketology - March 4th

What up? It's Wednesday and thanks to a crazy Tuesday, there has been some moving and shaking among my field of 65. That is both good and bad. Good, because it gives you some new stuff to criticize and scrutinize. Bad, because it makes for a lot more work for myself, a working man and bracketologist in training.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(new teams in italics)

LOCKS: Despite some big wins by teams in my AT-LARGE category, none of them were big enough to move up into the LOCKS category.

LOCKS (28): Duke, UNC, Clemson, Florida St, Wake, Pitt, UConn, L'Ville, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse, Marquette, Michigan St, Illinois, Purdue, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Washington, UCLA, Arizona St, LSU, Utah, Memphis, Xavier, Butler, Gonzaga and Texas.

AUTO: No changes here. Trust me, there will be at some point.

AUTO (20): Vermont (Am. East), Belmont (A-Sun), Weber State (Big Sky), Radford (Big South), Long Beach St (Big West), VCU (Colonial), Cornell (Ivy), Siena (MAAC), Buffalo (MAC), Morgan St (MEAC), Creighton (MVC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Tenn-Martin (Ohio Valley), American (Patriot), Davidson (SoCon), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Alabama St (SWAC), ND State (Summit), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), and Utah St (WAC)

AT-LARGE: Big changes here as 6 teams that were in the BUBBLE category played Tuesday night and some won and some did not. Ohio St (win @ Iowa 60-58) and OKST (win vs. Kansas State 77-71) moved up. Meanwhile, Maryland (loss vs. Wake 65-63) and Cincinnati (loss @ South Florida 70-59) dropped out, making way for two new teams in Providence and Penn State. And just a reminder, that these are in order of most safe to not so safe.

AT-LARGE (17): California, Ohio St, BYU, OKST, Tennessee, BC, Dayton, Wisconsin, Arizona, South Carolina, Michigan, UNLV, Florida, Texas A+M, St. Mary's., Providence, and Penn State.

BUBBLE WATCH

We have some moving and shaking here as well. The biggest news is that Georgetown's bubble has burst after a 59-56 OT loss to lowly St. John's. You just can't afford a loss like that this late in the year and expect to make the tourney. Oh, and don't forget that they have a 6-11 Big East record, same as St. John's. Meanwhile, Cincinnati's chances are much worse with a bad 70-59 loss to South Florida. Maryland isn't out of it yet but beating Wake at home would have been big for them. Same goes with Kansas State, who fell to OKST on the road. The Wildcats have to beat Colorado on Saturday and win at least 2 games in the Big 12 tourney to feel good. Finally, welcome New Mexico to the Bubble Watch, thanks to an upset home win against LOCK Utah. The Lobos are 20-10 and are working their way into the mix.

BUBBLE (30): Miami (FL), BC, Maryland, VT, Cincinnati, Providence, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio St, Michigan, Penn St, OKST, Texas A+M, Kansas St, California, Arizona, Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky, BYU, UNLV, San Diego St, Dayton, Utah St, Creighton, St. Mary's, Rhode Island, Davidson and New Mexico.

SEEDING

No changes to my top 4 seeding this week. I will say that Wake Forest's win over a fringe tourney team in Maryland was almost enough to move them to a 2 seed over Michigan State since MSU beat a lowly Indiana team. But MSU's overall resume is still slightly better. Other than that, expect some movement Wednesday and Thursday as well as my attempt to seed the entire field by Thursday (or Wednesday...who knows?)

EAST-WEST vs. SOUTH-MIDWEST (Click on bracket for enlarged bracket version)

EAST REGION (Boston)
1. UConn (Philadelphia)
2. Michigan State (Minneapolis)
3. Wake Forest (Miami)
4. UCLA (Portland)

SOUTH REGION (Memphis)
1. North Carolina (Greensboro)
2. Louisville (Dayton)
3. Kansas (Boise)
4. Marquette (Minneapolis)

MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis)
1. Pittsburgh (Dayton)
2. Duke (Greensboro)
3. LSU (Miami)
4. Missouri (Boise)

WEST REGION (Phoenix)
1. Oklahoma (Kansas City)
2. Memphis (Kansas City)
3. Villanova (Philadelphia)
4. Washington (Portland)

WEDNESDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech - For North Carolina, a loss could mean a fall from the top seed. For VT, a win over UNC could move them from the bubble to the at-large category.
BYU @ Wyoming - We've already seen teams like Georgetown and Cincinnati fall to bad teams in the road. BYU cannot deserve to do this.
Air Force @ UNLV - This should be an easy one for the Rebels. A win here will just solidify their chances to gain an at-large spot.
Colorado St @ San Diego St - The Aztecs are still on the outside looking in my opinion but with every win and losses by other teams, their odds of getting in get better and better.
Wisconsin @ Minnesota - Couple of bubble teams that really want/need this. A road win for Wisconsin would be huge. A home loss for Minnesota would give them 6 losses in 8 games. That wouldn't be good.
Texas A+M @ Colorado - As of now, I think the Aggies have done enough to be in good shape. But a loss to the 9-19 Buffaloes will change all of that.
BC @ NC State - BC has beaten UNC, Duke, and Providence, hence why they are in great shape. A win may put them in the tournament. Losing to NC State should not be an option.
Miami (FL) @ GT - The 'Canes are still missing that real marquee win so losing to a team like GT hurts more than most think. The Jackets are good enough to pull off this upset too.
Georgia @ Kentucky - If Kentucky wants any chance of making the tournament with an at-large berth, they cannot only win this game, but win it convincingly. The Dawgs are awful.
Florida @ Mississippi St - The Gators should be in wonderful shape with this road win. The Bulldogs have already beaten Kentucky and South Carolina. Gators better be ready to go.


Okay, that's your update for now. As you can see, a lot of games Wednesday to watch and that means, a lot at stake. I'll have your next update tomorrow and will be working hard (on my day off nonetheless) to seed the entire tourney. Again, please leave your opinions, criticisms, compliments and more by clicking on the comments below. Until then, enjoy the games!