Barnes Bracketology - March 5th

It's 4 a.m. on Wednesday night/Thursday morning. What are you doing? Well, if you are me, that means finishing up your latest projections for the 2009 NCAA Bracket. I figured do it on my day off when I really would feel inspired. There were a ton of upsets last night that really shook things up and also causing me to work much harder. But nothing in life comes easy. Here we go.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(new teams in italics)

LOCKS: Some teams are getting very close to earning a spot in this category. But I'm not absolutely sure so I don't want to prematurely put a team here.

LOCKS (28): Duke, UNC, Clemson, Florida St, Wake, Pitt, UConn, L'Ville, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse, Marquette, Michigan St, Illinois, Purdue, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Washington, UCLA, Arizona St, LSU, Utah, Memphis, Xavier, Butler, Gonzaga and Texas.

AUTO: No changes here. But with conference tourneys already underway, we'll see movement here soon enough.

AUTO (20): Vermont (Am. East), Belmont (A-Sun), Weber State (Big Sky), Radford (Big South), Long Beach St (Big West), VCU (Colonial), Cornell (Ivy), Siena (MAAC), Buffalo (MAC), Morgan St (MEAC), Creighton (MVC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Tenn-Martin (Ohio Valley), American (Patriot), Davidson (SoCon), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Alabama St (SWAC), ND State (Summit), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), and Utah St (WAC)

AT-LARGE: Thanks to some games last night, there have been some huge changes here. There were losses by BC (74-69 @ NC State), Florida (80-71 @ Miss. St) and Wisconsin (51-46 @ Minnesota). BC though stays in but isn't as safe as it once was. Meanwhile, welcome new additions Minnesota and Kansas State.

AT-LARGE (17): California, Ohio St, BYU, OKST, Tennessee, Dayton, Arizona, South Carolina, Michigan, UNLV, Texas A+M, St. Mary's., Providence, Penn State, Minnesota, BC, and Kansas State.

BUBBLE WATCH

Besides the games I mentioned earlier, there were more that involved bubble teams. BYU, UNLV, San Diego St and Texas A+M all avoided the upset bug, which is key right now. The same can not be said though for Miami (FL) and Kentucky, who both lost to the worst teams in their conference. The 'Canes to Georgia Tech 78-68 and the 'Cats to Georgia in Lexington 70-65. Both losses in my mind burst the bubbles of each team. At this late in the game, it will take a deep run in a conference tourney to get a second chance. And with a road win at LSU, I have added Vandy to the bubble watch.

BUBBLE (29): BC, Maryland, VT, Cincinnati, Providence, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio St, Michigan, Penn St, OKST, Texas A+M, Kansas St, California, Arizona, Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, BYU, UNLV, San Diego St, Dayton, Utah St, Creighton, St. Mary's, Rhode Island, Davidson, New Mexico and Vanderbilt.

SEEDING

So I decided to bracket the entire tournament. Here are the guidelines I used (same as the selection committee). First, avoid having two teams in the same conference meet until at least the Sweet 16, but most preferably in the Elite 8. Secondly, avoid regular-season rematches in the first two rounds. Thirdly, put higher-seeded teams in locations that are close to them. This took me roughly 90 minutes to do. There is probably a second-round rematch I missed but I know I did good with the conferences at least. Hope you enjoy it.

EAST-WEST vs. SOUTH-MIDWEST (Click on bracket to have it enlarged)

EAST REGION (Boston)
1 UConn vs. 16 Morgan State (Philadelphia)
2 Michigan State vs. 15 Belmont (Minneapolis)
3 Wake Forest vs 14 American (Miami)
4 Xavier vs. 13 Western Kentucky (Portland)
5 Arizona State vs. 12 Kansas State (Portland)
6 Texas vs. 11 Davidson (Miami)
7 West Virginia vs. 10 UNLV (Minneapolis)
8 Utah vs. 9 Ohio State (Philadelphia)

SOUTH REGION (Memphis)
1 North Carolina vs. 16 Robert Morris (Greensboro)
2 Louisville vs. 15 Stephen F. Austin (Dayton)
3 Missouri vs. 14 Vermont (Boise)
4 Illinois vs. 13 Buffalo (Minneapolis)
5 Marquette vs. 12 St. Mary's (Minneapolis)
6 Butler vs. 11 Penn State (Boise)
7 Florida State vs. 10 Utah State (Dayton)
8 Arizona vs. 9 Tennessee (Greensboro)

MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis)
1 Pittsburgh vs. 16 Long Beach St/Alabama St (Dayton)
2 Duke vs. 15 Tennessee-Martin (Greensboro)
3 Kansas vs. 14 Weber State (Miami)
4 LSU vs. 13 Virginia Commonwealth (Boise)
5 Purdue vs. 12 Creighton (Boise)
6 Syracuse vs. 11 South Carolina (Miami)
7 Gonzaga vs. 10 Dayton (Greensboro)
8 BYU vs. Texas A+M (Dayton)

WEST REGION (Phoenix)
1 Memphis vs. 16 Radford (Kansas City)
2 Oklahoma vs. 15 Cornell (Kansas City)
3 Villanova vs. North Dakota St. (Philadelphia)
4 Washington vs. 13 Siena (Portland)
5 Clemson vs. 12 Michigan (Portland)
6 UCLA vs. 11 Boston College (Philadelphia)
7 California vs. Minnesota (Kansas City)
8 Oklahoma St vs. 9 Providence

THURSDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH
Providence @ Villanova - A loss by Providence here won't hurt them. A win though puts them in for sure. Nova needs this too though to secure playing in Philly in the first 2 rounds.
Dayton @ Xavier - Big one for the Flyers. Win and in the tournament for sure. Xavier is fighting for a top 4 seed.
Illinois @ Penn State - The Nittany Lions have been getting a lot of help from other teams lately. Win over a ranked opponent at home would be real nice right now.
Tennessee @ South Carolina - I'll go out on a limb and say the winner will be a LOCK. The loser will have work left to do in the SEC tournament.
California @ Arizona - Both teams are in great shape to make it, no matter the result. But a lopsided result for either team may sway the minds of the committee, and me.


Okay, that's plenty for your Thursday. Again, comments are appreciated. I will have another update after Thursday's games and will even include pictures of this wonderful process. Again, comments about any of this are appreciated. 2 weeks until the madness begins!