2018 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 26

Time is running out for a lot of teams to do what they need to do to clinch their spot. And judging by the results of the past week, many of them are not taking advantage of the opportunities in front of them. There were a ton of losses by teams firmly on the bubble. The teams are the top pretty much held serve so not many changes there but with conference tournament quickly approaching, there is plenty to be figured out.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added 3 more teams to the mix. Houston moves in, as does Miami (FL) and Butler. Alabama is barely holding on to their spot and I actually moved Missouri out, which I hate to do but 2 losses this past week, including one at home to a struggling Ole Miss team. Not a lot of movement among the teams that were already in.

These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.

LOCKS (34): Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Duke, Kansas, North Carolina, Michigan State, Auburn, Purdue, Cincinnati, Clemson, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Ohio State, Arizona, Gonzaga, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Wichita State, Kentucky, Michigan, Nevada, Arkansas, Creighton, Texas A&M, TCU, Saint Mary's, Miami (FL), Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Butler, Houston, Arizona State, Alabama


AUTOS: Made a few changes to the group. Conference tournaments begin this week so we will soon get some teams in bold soon, highlighting their confirmed spot in the field of 68.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UCSB, Colonial - Charleston, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Wright State, Ivy - Penn, MAAC - Rider, MAC - Buffalo, MEAC - Bethune-Cookman, Missouri Valley - Loyola-Chicago, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - UNC-Greensboro, Southland - Nicholls, SWAC - Grambling, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Louisiana, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: What a group this is. All of them have mediocre records and resumes but you have to put teams into the field. All of them are capable of beating any of the top teams but they also can lose terrible games. You could shuffle up this order a million ways.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (12): Missouri, Florida, Virginia Tech, Louisville, USC, St. Bonaventure, Florida State, NC State, Providence, Syracuse, Washington, Kansas State

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: So now we have just 24 teams in this group. And like I said, this group is less than stellar. I expect this group to see lot of shuffling in the next 2 weeks. Not fun but certainly interesting.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (24): Missouri, Middle Tennessee, Florida, Virginia Tech, Louisville, USC, St. Bonaventure, Florida State, NC State, Providence, Syracuse, Washington, Kansas State, Texas, Nebraska, UCLA, Utah, Baylor, Boise State, Loyola-Chicago, Western Kentucky, Mississppi State, Penn State, Temple, New Mexico State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (10), SEC (8), Big 12 (6), Big East (6), Pac-12 (4), Big Ten (4), American (2), Atlantic-10 (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. WEST
EAST vs. MIDWEST

**Virginia is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments?  Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions. Next update comes most like on Monday, but possibly Tuesday.

MB

2018 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 19

Another week, another update. And what a week it has been. A lot of the top teams upset by unranked teams, which makes for an ever-changing bracket. Not to mention, the bubble continues to be very soft. It's interesting because there really is a dearth of what I would call "deserving" teams but at the same time, any of those teams are capable of beating one of the top teams any given day. Should make for a fun March Madness.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: 4 more teams are in this group. I put Nevada in finally, despite their lack of quality wins. But with an RPI of 10, they're doing something right. Think they get in even without winning the conference tournament. Arkansas is in after a 2-0 week. Missouri also jumps in and so does Michigan. Purdue has dropped bit but not nearly as bad as Oklahoma, who now projects as a 7 seed, far from the 2 seed they were trending towards in January.

These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.

LOCKS (31): Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Duke, Kansas, North Carolina, Michigan State, Auburn, Texas Tech, Purdue, Cincinnati, Clemson, Arizona, Tennessee, Ohio State, Gonzaga, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Wichita State, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Nevada, Michigan, Arizona State, Alabama, Arkansas, Creighton, Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Missouri, Saint Mary's


AUTOS: This group is all about the projected conference tournament champions. Obviously, I'm not dissecting the resume of each team in these conferences. Instead, I just go to standings and more times than not, pick the first place team and stick them here. Won't see a ton of changes here week-to-week until the conference tournaments begin.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UCSB, Colonial - Charleston, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Wright State, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Rider, MAC - Buffalo, MEAC - North Carolina A&T, Missouri Valley - Loyola-Chicago, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - East Tennessee State, Southland - Nicholls, SWAC - Grambling, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Louisiana, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: I could go a lot of directions with some teams in this group, especially near the end. It's just so close and you end up dissecting these teams and come to the conclusion they they're all just mediocre. For now, I'll go with this order. Here's hoping some of these teams start to separate themselves for the better or worse.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (15): Florida State, Houston, Syracuse, Miami (FL), TCU, Butler, Virginia Tech, Florida, Providence, Louisville, Washington, UCLA, St. Bonaventure, NC State, USC

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: As I stated earlier this is a soft bubble. I may have 28 teams listed here but less probably actually have a real shot. Kudos to Penn State and Utah for good weeks. They are knocking on the door. Baylor has risen from the ashes to make this list. Nebraska had really bad loss at Illinois that does not help their cause but they have a game vs. Penn State ahead that can turn things around.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (28): Florida State, Houston, Syracuse, Miami (FL), TCU, Butler, Virginia Tech, Middle Tennessee, Florida, Providence, Louisville, Washington, UCLA, St. Bonaventure, NC State, USC, Kansas State, Texas, Penn State, Utah, Nebraska, Baylor, Boise State, Western Kentucky, Georgia, Loyola-Chicago, Marquette, Mississippi State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (10), SEC (8), Big 12 (6), Big East (6), Pac-12 (5), Big Ten (4), American (2), Atlantic-10 (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. WEST
EAST vs. MIDWEST

**Virginia is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Be gentle. It's early. Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions. Next update comes on Friday or Monday.

MB

2018 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 12

Back with another update for you and this one feels different. And it's all because of that NCAA bracket preview show that occurred Sunday. I had my top 16 ready to go before I watched the show and needless to say, the committee and myself did not agree.

But since their work matters, I changed my top 16 to reflect what they had since my job is to project what they will do. Might as well cheat and use their work right? But there some significant differences between my top 16 and their top 16. So while this bracket is done, it's not one I fond of because I don't agree with some of their rankings.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added 7 new teams from the last update. Again, not the order I would put them but for now, willing to put them in the order the committee sees it now.

These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.

LOCKS (27): Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Purdue, Auburn, Kansas, Duke, Cincinnati, Clemson, Texas Tech, Michigan State, North Carolina, Tennessee, Ohio State, Arizona, Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Saint Mary's, Texas A&M, Arizona State, Wichita State, Kentucky, Alabama, Creighton, Seton Hall


AUTOS: This group is all about the projected conference tournament champions. Obviously, I'm not dissecting the resume of each team in these conferences. Instead, I just go to standings and more times than not, pick the first place team and stick them here. Won't see a ton of changes here week-to-week until the conference tournaments begin.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (23): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - UCSB, Colonial - Charleston, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Northern Kentucky, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Rider, MAC - Buffalo, MEAC - North Carolina A&T, Missouri Valley - Loyola-Chicago, Mountain West - Nevada, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - East Tennesse State, Southland - Nicholls, SWAC - Grambling, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Louisiana, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Down to just 18 spots in this group. First half should feel solid about their spots but with 27 days left, wouldn't get too comfortable. Kudos to Houston and Virginia Tech for jumping in to the group.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (18): Florida, Missouri, Michigan, Arkansas, Miami (FL), Butler, Syracuse, Louisville, TCU, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Washington, Houston, UCLA, Providence, USC, Nebraska, Kansas State

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: This actually isn't a big bubble. It's normally a lot larger at this point. That makes my job fairly easy but lot of games left for some not even on my radar to work their way back onto the bubble.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (33): Florida, Missouri, Nevada, Michigan, Arkansas, Miami (FL), Butler, Syracuse, Louisville, TCU, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Washington, Middle Tennessee Houston, UCLA, Providence, USC, Nebraska, Kansas State, Boise State, NC State, St. Bonaventure, Mississippi State, Temple, Utah, Penn State, Western Kentucky, Loyola-Chicago, Georgia, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Maryland

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (9), SEC (8), Big 12 (7), Big East (6), Big Ten (5), Pac-12 (5), American (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. WEST
EAST vs. MIDWEST

**Virginia is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Be gentle. It's early. Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions. Next update comes on Friday around noon.

MB

2018 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 5

The Super Bowl has come and gone. That can only mean one thing. The start of another season of Barnes Bracketology. It's amazing to think this is my 9th year doing this. What began as something to do to just pass the time during some boring afternoons in Augusta, GA has turned into something fun and challenging.

Last year was a perfect year for me in terms of accuracy, getting all 68 of 68 teams. In full disclosure, I thought it was fairly easy last year. Many times, it comes down to 2-3 teams and last year, the final teams separated themselves. Now of course, there technically is no right or wrong answer. It's all subjective. So if I miss teams or mis-seed teams badly, it just means I have a different opinion than the committee.

This is a big puzzle that can be put together many different ways. And initially, you will see lots of movement as I try to really get a handle on these teams and their resumes. So sit back and enjoy as the process begins with my usual "day after Super Bowl" initial post. And make sure you come back on Friday for the next update.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: This group is comprised of teams that have locked up their spot in the tournament. Yes, even with a month to go. Initially, this list is small because it pains me to take someone off this list. It will grow gradually as teams get big wins and improve their resumes.

These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.

LOCKS (20): Virginia, Villanova, Purdue, Xavier, Kansas, Auburn, Duke, Arizona, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Clemson, Texas Tech, Ohio State, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Rhode Island, North Carolina, Seton Hall


AUTOS: This group is all about the projected conference tournament champions. Obviously, I'm not dissecting the resume of each team in these conferences. Instead, I just go to standings and more times than not, pick the first place team and stick them here. Won't see a ton of changes here week-to-week until the conference tournaments begin.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (24): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - Long Beach St, Colonial - Charleston, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Wright State, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Rider, MAC - Buffalo, MEAC - North Carolina A&T, Missouri Valley - Loyola-Chicago, Mountain West - Nevada, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - East Tennesse State, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Louisiana, WAC - New Mexico State, WCC - Saint Mary's

AT-LARGE: This is the group that is always the toughest to come up with. The group of teams that are getting in but by no means is it a guarantee. The first half of this group is probably in good shape but February is a volatile month in college basketball and can make or break teams so expect plenty of shuffling as we head into March.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (24): Wichita State, Florida, Alabama, Miami (FL), Gonzaga, Washington, Michigan, Creighton, Providence, Florida State, Texas, Louisville, Butler, Arizona State, Texas A&M, USC, Arkansas, Syracuse, NC State, Missouri, UCLA, TCU, Boise State, Kansas State

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: And now the dreaded bubble. If you know college basketball, you know what this means. You are not safe. This group will grow and shrink frequently as teams get on hot and cold streaks. It's not the best list to be on but if you fall off of it, you're in real trouble. Every team in the AT-LARGE category is in this group because they aren't a LOCK and you could always find a team from the AUTO group in here too because if they lose their conference tournament, they would need to be in a good position in this group.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (38): Wichita State, Saint Mary's, Florida, Alabama, Miami (FL), Gonzaga, Nevada, Washington, Michigan, Creighton, Providence, Florida State, Texas, Louisville, Butler, Arizona State, Texas A&M, USC, Arkansas, Syracuse, NC State, Missouri, UCLA, TCU, Boise State, Kansas State, Middle Tennessee, Nebraska, Houston, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Georgia, St. Bonaventure, LSU, Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, SMU, Utah, Marquette, Western Kentucky, Stanford

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (9), Big 12 (7), SEC (7), Big East (6), Pac-12 (5), Big Ten (4), American (2), Mountain West (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
MIDWEST vs. WEST

**Virginia is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Be gentle. It's early. Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions. Next update comes on Friday around noon.

MB