2015 Barnes Bracketology: FINAL

Happy Selection Sunday! For some, this is sort of a national holiday. The day when the brackets are announced and whatever you had planned to do the rest of your Sunday is forgotten because it's time to break down the brackets. For me though, it's the end of the road for this but the start of something even more fun.

KEEP IN MIND: I have two brackets. One for if UConn wins the American and steals a bid. Another for if SMU wins. Also, Georgia State simply represents the Sun Belt champion. If Georgia Southern happens to win that, simply replace them with Georgia State.

PSA: I am among a select few "celebrities" (using that term loosely for me) taking part in a bracket challenge presented by FLIP. It is am organization dedicated to cancer prevention. It is a cause near and dear to many, including myself. You can take part in the bracket challenge for just $10, which goes towards FLIP. And in return, you can compete for some great prizes (CBJ tix, tailgate package, OSU gear) plus try to out pick myself, Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman, former OSU athletes (Z. Boren, Stoneburner, Linsley, Sullinger) and NBC4's own Monica Day. Check it out right here!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added 3 more teams who I think will be in the field, even if that means they somehow drop into the "First Four".

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (42): Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Wisconsin, Duke, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Maryland, Baylor, North Carolina, Oklahoma, SMU, Northern Iowa, Utah, Louisville, West Virginia, Arkansas, Georgetown, Wichita State, Providence, Michigan State, San Diego State, Xavier, Butler, VCU, Cincinnati, NC State, Dayton, Oregon, St. John's, Iowa, Ohio State, Davidson, Purdue, Georgia, Temple, Colorado State, Oklahoma State, Texas


AUTOS: Everything here is set besides the Sun Belt, who decides their champion today. Also technically, if UConn, they will be placed here as Wyoming was as they only way they would have made the field was by the automatic bid.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (22): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Irvine, Colonial - Northeastern, Conference USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Manhattan, MAC - Buffalo, MEAC - Hampton, Mountain West - Wyoming, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Lafayette, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Have to keep at least 4 teams here, just because it will represent the last 4 in, thus them playing in Dayton for the "First Four". But I would think LSU and Indiana are safely in the field.

AT-LARGE (4): LSU, Indiana, BYU, Boise State

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Been a very fluid process with the bubble this past week and instead of teams paying their way into the field, many have come up just short. That was the case for Rhode Island and Tulsa, who I think came up a win or two short. And poor Ole Miss, bumped out of the field thanks to Wyoming's win in the Mountain West tournament. Same could happen to Boise State if UConn upsets SMU in the American tournament.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (10): LSU, Indiana, BYU, Boise State, Ole Miss, Tulsa, UCLA, Richmond, Texas A&M, Miami (FL)

SEEDING

As far as the bracket goes, I don't envision the committee waiting until 5:30-5:45 to change things around regarding Wisconsin being a 1 seed so win or lose today, I think the Badgers stay on the top line. They would have to change it if UConn wins, adding them, moving one team into the "First Fur" and taking a team from the "First Four" completely out of the field. That's an easy switch, as I did below. And I'm sure the same is said for the Sun Belt champion. Just change Georgia State and Georgia Southern. Again, I have Georgia State as the projected champ but if GSU wins, mentally put them there.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big 12 (7), Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), Mountain West (4), SEC (4), American (3), A-10 (3), Pac-12 (3), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: Buffalo, Hampton, Wyoming

NEW TEAMS OUT: Central Michigan, Delaware State, Ole Miss

IF SMU WINS:

IF UCONN WINS

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Conference Championship Games Today: SEC, Sun Belt, A-10, American, Big Ten

Brackets are announced at 6pm. I'll write a recap post on Monday and have my picks on Tuesday.

Thanks for reading and going on this journey with me. Enjoy the tournament!

MB

2015 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 14

Plain and simple, that Friday was a big deal. And I know it doesn't make a ton of sense to change a lot just because of one day in Championship Week but when the margin between some of these teams is so razor thin on paper, one win or loss on the court is cause for change. And with that in mind, read below the many moves that have been made, including a new 1 seed!

PSA: I am among a select few "celebrities" (using that term loosely for me) taking part in a bracket challenge presented by FLIP. It is am organization dedicated to cancer prevention. It is a cause near and dear to many, including myself. You can take part in the bracket challenge for just $10, which goes towards FLIP. And in return, you can compete for some great prizes (CBJ tix, tailgate package, OSU gear) plus try to out pick myself, Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman, former OSU athletes (Z. Boren, Stoneburner, Linsley, Sullinger) and NBC4's own Monica Day. Check it out right here!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: 2 more teams are safely in the field by my estimation. Georgia avoided a third loss to South Carolina and despite not one top 50 RPI win, the Bulldogs have done enough. Purdue also avoided a bad loss vs. Penn State. A top 4 finish in the Big Ten regular season and a semifinal appearance in the conference tournament is enough for me.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (39): Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Wisconsin, Duke, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas, Maryland, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Baylor, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Northern Iowa, SMU, Utah, Louisville, West Virginia, Georgetown, Arkansas, Wichita State, Providence, San Diego State, Xavier, Butler, Michigan State, Cincinnati, VCU, NC State, St. John's, Oregon, Iowa, Dayton, Ohio State, Davidson, Temple, Georgia, Purdue


AUTOS: Another team has clinched and a few others I predicted have been upset.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Irvine, Colonial - Northeastern, Conference USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Manhattan, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - Delaware State, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Lafayette, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: And it's down to just 8 teams. And keep in mind, there are still 4 bid stealers alive (Auburn in the SEC, UConn in the AAC, Rhode Island in the A-10, and Wyoming in the Mountain West) so for the final 4 teams on this list, those are the teams you do not want to see win their conference tournaments. If they do, one spot for each team in this already shrinking field is taken away.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (8): Colorado State, Oklahoma State, Texas, LSU, Indiana, BYU, Boise State, Ole Miss

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: I cut this down to just 12 because that's really all it comes down to. And the only two that have games remaining are Tulsa and Rhode Island. And let me tell you, Tulsa is knocking on the door. With a win vs. UConn, they may just walk into an AT-LARGE spot. We'll see though. I'm bullish on taking out any of the teams in that group as of now because in most years, they would have done enough.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (12): Colorado State, Oklahoma State, Texas, LSU, Indiana, BYU, Boise State, Ole Miss, Tulsa, UCLA, Rhode Island, Richmond

SEEDING

I don't normally write in this section but I thought I should to explain my big move: moving Wisconsin to a 1 seed and moving Duke down to a 2 seed. This came due to Duke's loss to Notre Dame in the ACC Semifinals. Not since 2008 have 2 teams from the same conference been a 1 seed (Big East had three 1 seeds in '08). And I couldn't find one instance when a team did not win the regular season crown OR tournament crown and get a 1 seed in the last 10 tournaments. So why should Duke break that trend? Especially when you have teams as strong as Villanova, Arizona, Gonzaga and Kansas who are all worthy of a 1 seed in their own way and ALL may win their regular season AND tournament crown.

As for Virginia staying at a 1 seed despite two losses in a week, that's what happens when you start the year the way they did. You allow yourself some leeway. Plus, I think the committee decides not to penalize them for Justin Anderson missing the Louisville game and for him not being 100% yet vs. UNC. He should be fine by time the NCAA Tournament begins.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big 12 (7), Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), SEC (5), American (3), Mountain West (3), A-10 (3), Pac-12 (3), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: None

NEW TEAMS OUT: None

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Purdue vs. Wisconsin (Big Ten Semifinals) - Wisconsin would immediately lose the 1 seed they just were promoted to with a loss here.

Rhode Island vs. Dayton (A-10 Semifinals) - A lot of teams are rooting for Dayton here. Rhode Island is dangerously close to getting in on their resume already but they steal a bid if they win the tournament.

UConn vs. Tulsa (American Semifinals) - UConn is trying to steal a bid. Tulsa is trying to work their way onto the right side of the bubble. HUGE game.

Wyoming vs. San Diego State (Mountain West Championship) - BID STEALER ALERT! A Wyoming win means someone is dropping out of the AT-LARGE group and this late in the game, that team is unlikely to return.

Xavier vs. Villanova (Big East Championship) - Villanova drops to a 2 seed if they fall here. Too many good teams behind them ready to replace them on that line.

Oregon vs. Arizona (Pac-12 Championship) - Arizona is already playing like a 1 seed right now. Win here and help from Wisconsin and/or Villanova will likely see the Wildcats jumping up.

Other Conference Championship Games: America East, MEAC, C-USA, Ivy, Big 12, SWAC, MAC, ACC, Big Sky, Southland, WAC, Big West

Next bracket posted tomorrow, which just so happens to be Selection Sunday!

MB

2015 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 13

I know, you can smell the finish line. So can I. Yesterday had games that really impacted how things were on this. Others though just kept things status quo. I'm not sure it's going to stay that way after Friday's games.

Quick note: I am among a select few "celebrities" (using that term loosely for me) taking part in a bracket challenge presented by FLIP. It is am organization dedicated to cancer prevention. It is a cause near and dear to many, including myself. You can take part in the bracket challenge for just $10, which goes towards FLIP. And in return, you can compete for some great prizes (CBJ tix, tailgate package, OSU gear) plus try to out pick myself, Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman, former OSU football and basketball players and more. Check it out right here!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Plain and simple, the Pac-12 is getting three teams in the tournament. And Oregon is playing well enough now to not give me any doubt the committee will snub them on Selection Sunday.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (37): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas, Maryland, Baylor, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Utah, Oklahoma, Northern Iowa, SMU, Louisville, North Carolina, West Virginia, Wichita State, Georgetown, Arkansas, Butler, Providence, San Diego State, St. John's, Cincinnati, Iowa, VCU, Michigan State, NC State, Xavier, Dayton, Temple, Ohio State, Davidson, Oregon



AUTOS: Not one change here at all. That's rare for this late.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - Northeastern, Conference USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Manhattan, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Lafayette, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: And then there were 10. No one added or dropped but BYU is now back in the "First Four" as Boise State works their way back into the better part of this group. Ole Miss is barely hanging on after a bad loss in the SEC tournament.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (10): Georgia, LSU, Colorado State, Purdue, Boise State, Oklahoma State, BYU, Indiana, Texas, Ole Miss

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Bubble were bursting like no other on Thursday. This group had 20 just a day ago. Now it's down to 15, and only one team graduated so that means the bubble is truly shrinking. Of the 5 teams still on the outside looking in, Texas A&M is the team that has no chance to play another game so their chances are very slim right now.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (15): Georgia, LSU, Colorado State, Purdue, Boise State, Oklahoma State, BYU, Indiana, Texas, Ole Miss, UCLA, Tulsa, Richmond, Texas A&M, Rhode Island

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big 12 (7), Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), SEC (5), American (3), Mountain West (3), A-10 (3), Pac-12 (3), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: None

NEW TEAMS OUT: None

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Michigan vs. Wisconsin (Big Ten Quarterfinals) -  This is all about a 1 seed for Wisconsin. The Badgers are very close to Villanova. So just keep winning.
Penn State vs. Purdue (Big Ten Quarterfinals) - Purdue is still in pretty solid for this late in the game. But don't lose here to stay that way.
VCU vs. Richmond (A10 Quarterfinals) - Richmond needs this one and likely another to knock down the BUBBLE door.
Auburn vs. LSU (SEC Quarterfinals) - LSU is very very close. Don't trip up here and we'll see them in the Big Dance.
Indiana vs. Maryland (Big Ten Quarterfinals) - Plain and simple for both teams. Indiana win means they are in the field. Win for Maryland moves them one step closer to possibly overtaking Kansas for a 2 seed.
Houston vs. Tulsa (American Quarterfinals) - Tulsa can't afford this upset. Or their bubble will burst.
Providence vs. Villanova (Big East Semifinals) - Providence is a good team so it's not a bad loss if it happens to Villanova. But their chance at a 1 seed may go away.
North Carolina vs. Virginia (ACC Semifinals) -  I think Virginia's 1 seed is safe but among the 4, not sure their placement yet. UNC fighting to move up to a 4 seed.
George Washington vs. Rhode Island (A10 Quarterfinals) - Must-win for Rhode Island to stay in the conversation.
South Carolina vs. Georgia (SEC Quarterfinals) - UGA should probably be in already. But they've lost to South Carolina. A third loss would be troubling.
UCLA vs. Arizona (Pac-12 Semifinals) - Easier said than done but UCLA must pull off this upset. And if they do, their reward my be a spot in the field.
Wyoming vs. Boise State (Mountain West Semifinals) - One more win for Boise may just do it. Hard to find fault with the rest of the resume.
Notre Dame vs. Duke (ACC Semifinals) - Duke locks up a 1 seed with a win here. A loss slightly opens the door for others like Wisconsin and Arizona.
Colorado State vs. San Diego State (Mountain West Semifinals) - Colorado State has been hovering as a BUBBLE from the beginning. They move to LOCK with this upset.

Next bracket posted tomorrow. Remember, we are going daily until Selection Sunday!

MB

2015 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 12

The journey that is Barnes Bracketology is almost over. It's a little bit sad but a lot more exciting. Because as much as I enjoy breaking down these teams and making the best possible bracket, I enjoy watching the games even more. Seeing 68 teams get down to 4 teams in a span of 2 weeks is the closest thing to sports television heaven I can think of. And while this year, there looks to be one obvious champion out there, what if that team doesn't win? What if they get upset early like so many top seeds have before them? That's the reason we watch the tournament and why I can't wait until the madness begins.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I spent the last few days really looking over each team's resume and after doing that, I moved some teams around. For instance, VCU took a bit of a slide as I took into further consideration their play as of late without Briante Weber, their best defender. The committee is likely to dock them knowing he is gone for the season. I also added Davidson to this list. May be a bit early for that but they won the A-10 outright. That's enough for me when I have 2 others from the conference in as LOCKS.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (36): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas, Maryland, Baylor, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Utah, Oklahoma, Northern Iowa, SMU, Louisville, North Carolina, West Virginia, Wichita State, Georgetown, Arkansas, Butler, Providence, San Diego State, St. John's, Cincinnati, Iowa, VCU, Michigan State, NC State, Xavier, Dayton, Temple, Ohio State, Davidson



AUTOS: God amount of change here as some of my choices in these conference tournaments lost. They have now been replaced by the champs and you'll also see them in the bracket.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - Northeastern, Conference USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Manhattan, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Lafayette, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Down to just 11 spots in this group and will shrink as the days go on here. I made a change in this group by taking UCLA out and putting Indiana back in. As I said earlier, I took a long look at teams in these days off for pretty much all the teams and decided to swap the two. Still plenty of time for this to change again though.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (11): Georgia, LSU, Oregon, Colorado State, Purdue, Oklahoma State, BYU, Boise State, Ole Miss, Texas, Indiana

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Goodbye Murray State, Louisiana Tech and Pittsburgh. After going through everything, those teams just have no shot of getting in the field ahead of the 20 teams ahead of them. And with just 11 spots left, I'm not letting them up space on the post. Kudos to BYU who had played themselves onto the right side of the bubble for now. Others can do that in the coming days with upsets in their conference tournaments. Those near the end of this list may still need to win their tournaments to get in.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (20): Georgia, LSU, Oregon, Colorado State, Purdue, Oklahoma State, BYU, Boise State, Ole Miss, Texas, Indiana, Texas A&M, UCLA, Illinois, Tulsa, Miami (FL), Richmond, Old Dominion, Rhode Island, Stanford

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big 12 (7), Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), SEC (5), American (3), Mountain West (3), A-10 (3), Pac-12 (3), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: Indiana

NEW TEAMS OUT: UCLA

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Michigan vs. Illinois (Big Ten 2nd Rd) - A must-win for Illinois to stay in the discussion for an AT-LARGE. And they'll likely need the upset of Wisconsin as well.
Florida State vs. Virginia (ACC Quarterfinals) - Virginia is a bit fragile right now with the 1 seed with the Justin Anderson injury. I still think they'll hold on to it but a loss here may add some doubt.
Marquette vs. Villanova (Big East Quarterfinals) - A Villanova upset loss would mean a ton for Arizona, Wisconsin and maybe even Gonzaga who are trying to snag that final 1 seed. Villanova's margin is razor thin, especially when it comes to Wisconsin.
TCU vs. Kansas (Big 12 Quarterfinals) - Kansas is banged up and short a few players. Not a problem in terms of making the field but Maryland could snag their 2 seed with an early loss here and a Maryland deep run.
California vs. Arizona (Pac-12 Quarterfinals) - As mentioned above, Arizona could get a 1 seed. They need some help and to obviously, win this tournament.
Air Force vs. Boise State (Mountain West Quarterfinals) - I think Boise is in decent shape though I have them playing in the First Four. But a loss here will have them on thin ice, despite winning the Mountain West in the regular season.
Auburn vs. Texas A&M (SEC 2nd Rd) - One of the things about the Aggies resume is that it doesn;t have any bad losses. This would be one, especially since they are on the outside looking in.
Middle Tennessee State vs. Old Dominion (CUSA Quarterfinals) - ODU not only needs to probably get to the CUSA title game but get some help from some other bubble teams.
USC vs. UCLA (Pac-12 Quarterfinals) - UCLA's margin of error is gone. Need this win and then a quality win in the semifinals. And that still may not be enough.
Northwestern vs. Indiana (Big Ten 2nd Rd) - The Wildcats just beat the Hoosiers not too long ago. If that happens again, Indiana can begin to prepare for the NIT.
Texas vs. Iowa State (Big 12 Quarterfinals) - This will be a tough win for Texas but they might just need it. They don't have a bad loss and this wouldn't be either. But they don't have enough good wins.
Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 Quarterfinals) - Little intrastate rivalry with a lot on the line for OKST. The Cowboys might be in better shape than I think but they'll be a LOCK if they pull off this neutral site victory.
Colorado vs. Oregon (Pac-12 Quarterfinals) - The Ducks are doing everything right, getting hot at the right time. Don't let the committee's last look of you be a loss to lowly Colorado   
South Carolina vs. Ole Miss (SEC 2nd Rd) - Ole Miss looked solid not too long ago but not now. Won't say must-win but a loss allows others the chance to jump them with better wins.
Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame (ACC Quarterfinals) - Miami (FL)'s win at Duke can only go so far. They need another feather in its cap. Great chance here.
Fresno State vs. Colorado State (Mountain West Quarterfinals) - Colorado State's resume is not all that impressive, but lately they've done well to avoid the bad loss. Do that one more time and their case to be in strengthens yet again.
Stanford vs. Utah (Pac-12 Quarterfinals) - Very likely the Cardinal need to get to the title game to have real case that they belong.   

Next update comes tomorrow. That's right, Barnes Bracketology is going daily until Selection Sunday. And on Selection Sunday, the hope is to post a bracket in the morning and one final one at halftime of the Big Ten title game (if necessary). So check back tomorrow for any updates and there should be some considering all the BUBBLE teams in action on Thursday.

MB

2015 Barnes Bracketology: Bubble Watch

It's that annual tradition of Barnes Bracketology where I lay out the resumes of the bubble teams and let you decide if I'm right or wrong about the bubble teams.

I'll be honest, this is the hardest part, coming up with those last few teams. Right now, I have 24 teams on the BUBBLE battling for the final 12 spots.

Now granted, I could narrow down those 24 to maybe 20 and those spots from 12 to maybe 8 but I am being very cautious this year, trying to do my due diligence.

And so without further adieu, here are the numbers, in RPI order. The color coding just defines how I see them in the bracket right now. Below the numbers, I will answer some FAQ's that I have received during this process so far

FAQS

What do you consider the most important criteria for these BUBBLE teams?
I don't have one set criteria. I'm a big fan of a team that has big wins. When it comes to these teams, you sometimes get the mix of teams with a deceptively good RPI, like Old Dominion and Colorado State, but don't have the big wins that seem to warrant it. So I look at how good those wins were. I also look for teams that are playing well in the last month or so. And lastly, the strength of schedule is huge for me. I look less at bad losses than others might. Teams have off nights to bad teams. But if you make up for it with some great nights vs. good teams, I'll consider the great win more.

Is it true the committee cares more about geography than matchups?
Sadly, this is accurate. The committee chair said as much on CBS on Sunday. What this means for a team like Wisconsin, who is currently my highest ranked 2 seed, is that they would rather the Badgers be placed in the Cleveland regional where Kentucky will be placed instead of the region with the weakest 1 seed (for me, that's Villanova) because Madison, WI is closest to Cleveland. That's absurd to me. It makes the regions uneven and for those top seeds, that's a big deal. I wish they would use common sense and just worry about the first couple rounds in regards to geography. After that, worry about making the regions as even as possible.

OSU has one win over a top-50 RPI team. Oklahoma State has 6! Why is one OSU a lock and the other not?
This is a great question that brings up the argument that it's not all about the numbers sometimes. When you see something like that, you think Oklahoma State is getting a raw deal. But look closer. The Cowboys were under .500 in their conference. They are 17-12, an underwhelming record. They are 5-7 in their last 12 games. And they have two losses vs. teams with a sub-100 RPI. None of those are good. Meanwhile, Ohio State does not have one sub-100 RPI loss, finished 11-7 in conference play, are 8-4 in the last 12 games and have an overall record of 22-9. Yes, it's not impressive to have just one win against a team that is a LOCK for the tournament (home win vs. Maryland) at this stage, but the Buckeyes have done enough while the Cowboys are still struggling to prove they are worthy.

Buffalo is ranked 32nd in the RPI and not even considered a BUBBLE team. What gives?
I'm an alum of a MAC school (Ohio University) so I would love to include the Bulls in the mix but this is another case of looking past the numbers. There's not a quality win on that resume. Not one win against a team that will make the tournament, besides the winner of the MAC tournament. And 9 losses on the season, with 6 coming in conference play? Yikes. Sorry Buffalo, but if you want to dancing, better win the conference tournament.

Murray State went perfect in their conference but got upset in their conference tournament. Can they get in?
Short answer: it's a long shot. The Racers look like a great team when you watch them. Have a good, up and coming coach and a quality player in Cameron Payne. But man, besides that record, those numbers are terrible. The 256th best strength of schedule doesn't inspire me that you're as good as your record is. Plus, when Murray State did play quality competition like Xavier and Valparaiso, they lost by 27 and 35 respectively. They only have one decent win and that's vs. Illinois State, who did knock off Wichita State last week. But even that's just okay, since it was at home. This is just that simple case of bad luck. Win all those games in a row and lose the biggest one of the year and be left watching the Big Dance from home.

Who do you think will win it all?
I don't make predictions on who will make the Final Four or anything like that until I see the bracket completed. It's all about matchups and it's foolish to pick a team and then see their road be littered with bad matchups and stick with them. So I'll refrain from picking any one until then (but it's probably going to be Kentucky) 

Alright, that's all for now. I'll have a new bracket posted on Thursday. It may feature some drastic changes as I reevaluate every team closely for the last time, because come Thursday's games, we will be making just some subtle changes to seedings and making more time figuring out who gets in and who gets out, as I'm sure the committee will be doing as well.

MB

2015 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 9

We're down to less than a week until Selection Sunday. And that means a week until we find out how accurate I was with my final bracket. I got a bit of a hint of how the committee plans on seeding and placing the team in the bracket. The committee chairman was on TV and mentioned that geography is more paramount than matchups. That means just because a team may be the best 2 seed doesn't mean they will play the worst 1 seed. That is HUGE news for me, as instead of making the bracket that makes the most sense, I have to tweak my thinking to change to what the committee will be doing. After all, that's why I do this.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: As expected, we have some new entries in this category after the weekend. All joining thanks to wins. NC State, Xavier and Temple have done enough for me to be in the field. Others are very, very close.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (35): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas,Maryland, Baylor, Notre Dame, Utah, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Northern Iowa, SMU, Louisville, North Carolina, West Virginia, Wichita State, Arkansas, Georgetown, Butler, VCU, Providence, San Diego State, St. John's, Michigan State, Dayton, Cincinnati, Iowa, NC State, Xavier, Temple, Ohio State



AUTOS: Championship week is underway for some of these conferences.For others, it is soon to start. And for a a few, it is over and that means berths are clinched. So look for those changes and congrats to those teams.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Lafayette, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Indiana is playing itself into a sticky situation. Same goes for Ole Miss. In the meantime, kudos to Texas for re-joining this group. Davidson, LSU, and Purdue are the big movers up in this group from the weekend. I'd lock up a few more of these teams normally but with 9 potential bid stealers out there, better safe than sorry.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (12): LSU, Colorado State, Georgia, Purdue, Oregon, Davidson, Boise State, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, UCLA, BYU, Texas

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: This group is larger than I imagined it would be this late. That doesn't mean the teams are strong. Just means more mediocrity on the bubble. Indiana is on the outside looking in now. Meanwhile, Tulsa and Illinois missed out on big wins on the road. And look out for Richmond charging hard. And for those looking for Murray State, they made the list but their chances of getting to an AT-LARGE are incredibly slim, considering their lackluster resume and their lack of games left (zero).

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (24): LSU, Colorado State, Georgia, Purdue, Oregon, Davidson, Boise State, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, UCLA, BYU, Texas, Indiana, Miami (FL), Tulsa, Illinois, Texas A&M, Old Dominion, Richmond, Rhode Island, Stanford, Louisiana Tech, Murray State, Pittsburgh

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big 12 (7), Big Ten (6), ACC (6), Big East (6), SEC (5), Pac-12 (4), American (3), Mountain West (3), A-10 (3),  Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: Texas

NEW TEAMS OUT: Indiana

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

West Coast Championship (Tuesday) - Potential bid-stealer. If Gonzaga or BYU does not win this, one of those BUBBLE spots are going away. If BYU gets to the title game and faces Gonzaga, they have a real chance of getting into the field even with a loss to Gonzaga.

Next update comes Tuesday with the annual BUBBLE special as we dissect the teams fighting to get in and let you decide who deserves those final few spots.

MB

2015 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 6

In or out? That's the question all of the bubble teams are thinking right now? Have we done enough to be considered in the field of 68 or are we still on the outside? It's enough to make a coach and player go crazy but for myself, it just means comparing a few resumes and making a decision. Still time before selection Sunday so no need to panic for any team. Just take care of business and it will take care of itself. But if you don't, you put your fate in the hands of people who are very much a wild card each and every season.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Getting down to the end here and sometimes, all it takes it just a simple win, even against an inferior team, to lock up your spot. This week, 4 teams did just that. Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa and Cincinnati joined these ranks and it was well-deserved for all after a whole season of waffling.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (32): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona, Kansas, Gonzaga, Maryland, Baylor, Utah, Notre Dame, Wichita State, Iowa State, North Carolina, Oklahoma Arkansas, Northern Iowa, SMU, West Virginia, Louisville, Providence, Georgetown, Dayton, VCU, Butler, San Diego State, St. John's, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Iowa



AUTOS: Championship week is underway for some of these conferences. None of them affecting my decisions from Sunday, but I did make one change as I felt necessary.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - High Point, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Good luck every trying to figure out this group. Some weeks, the teams near the top of this group show up as if they know they have an NCAA berth on the line. Others lay an egg on their home floor and the road floor and keep themselves in limbo. The newcomer to the group is Davidson, who did a nice job beating VCU. Texas A&M falls out after an uninspiring loss to the Gators.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (15): Temple, Oklahoma State, Colorado State, Georgia, Xavier, Ole Miss, NC State, Boise State, Indiana, Oregon, LSU, Purdue, Davidson, UCLA, BYU

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Selection Sunday is just around the corner and I can assure you this is not where you want to be: on the bubble. Some of these schools have some big opportunities ahead in the conference tournament. Others do not. S e shall see just how much emphasis is put into politicking.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (30): Temple, Oklahoma State, Colorado State, Georgia, Xavier, Ole Miss, NC State, Boise State, Indiana, Oregon, LSU, Purdue, Davidson, UCLA, BYU, Texas A&M, Illinois, Texas, Miami (FL), Tulsa, Pittsburgh, Old Dominion, Stanford, Rhode Island, UMass, Louisiana Tech, UConn, Richmond

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), Pac-12 (4), American (3), Mountain West (3), A-10 (3),  Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: Davidson

NEW TEAMS OUT: Texas A&M

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

TBA

Next update after Sunday's games.

MB

2015 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 2

HAPPY MARCH! This is the month I look forward to for 11 months because I know that madness will ensue. But before we get to that, we have to have a field of 68 teams to populate the bracket. Some may look at my projections and think I am being conservative with some of my calls but I play it safe in this process. Only make calls that are 100% and make projections that make sense. That's what made me so accurate the last 5 years and better than the likes of ESPN's Joe Lunardi and CBS' Jerry Palm. There is a method to my madness....and trust me, it is madness!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I was hoping to add 4 teams to this group after the weekend but instead, end up with just 2. Those being Dayton and St. John's. Both beat teams that were already LOCKS, which is the best kind of win, so it made for a pretty easy decision. Came close to adding a few others but it will take one more game before I feel absolutely confident that "bid stealers" won't steal their bid in the case they falter in their final few games.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (28): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga Kansas, Maryland, Baylor, Utah, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Wichita State, North Carolina, Iowa State, Louisville, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, West Virginia, SMU, Providence, VCU, Butler, Georgetown, Dayton, San Diego State, St. John's



AUTOS: As I do every weekend with this group, I reconsider who is actually the frontrunner to win the automatic bid. I made a couple changes. Very soon, some of these guesses will just be fact as conference tournaments get underway for some this week.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Sacramento State, Big South - High Point, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Another frustrating from this group. 3 of the top 6 in the group lost, keeping them from being promoted. Another 2 teams did not play which neither hurt or helped them. 3 teams dropped out, though only 2 did because of losses. The 3 who are now out are Illinois (who won), Pittsburgh and Stanford. Their replacements all had great wins. BYU won at Gonzaga. Boise State won at San Diego State and Oregon won at Stanford. Beating a good team is always good. Beating them on the road though is great, and worthy of a big bump.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (19): Indiana, Xavier, Ohio State, Colorado State, Temple, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Michigan State, LSU, Texas A&M, Iowa, Ole Miss, Purdue, Boise State, Oregon, NC State, UCLA, BYU

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Fascinating week for many in this group. Most of them got huge wins, including the ones I mentioned above. Others like Davidson, Tulsa, and UMass won as well but those wins did not carry the same weight. They are still very much alive though so keep an eye on them these last couple of weeks. I added UConn to this group as well. The defending champs are playing well right now and frankly, I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they player their way into the field.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (30): Indiana, Xavier, Ohio State, Colorado State, Temple, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Michigan State, LSU, Texas A&M, Iowa, Ole Miss, Purdue, Boise State, Oregon, NC State, UCLA, BYU, Illinois, Davidson, Stanford, Tulsa, Pittsburgh, UMass, Miami (FL), Rhode Island, Texas, Old Dominion, UConn

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), American (3), Mountain West (3), A-10 (2),  Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: Boise State, BYU, Oregon

NEW TEAMS OUT: Pittsburgh, Illinois, Stanford

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Monday

Virginia at Syracuse - Win this game and UVA is probably locked in as a 1 seed. Two more losses probably won't be enough to keep them from this honor

Baylor at Texas - Texas is already 6-10 in Big 12 play. It will take at least 8-10 to think about an at-large bid again.

Tuesday

Kentucky at Georgia - Kentucky is a 1 seed no matter what. A Georgia win though locks up their spot, pulling off this huge upset.

Villanova at Creighton - Nova is barely a top seed now. Can easily blowing it by losing this easy one.

Rhode Island at Dayton - URI can't lock up their spot but this would go a long way to getting close.

Iowa at Indiana (BUBBLE SPECIAL): Indiana win locks up their spot. Iowa win may do the same.

Ole Miss at Alabama - Ole Miss looked safe not too long ago. Lose here and they could be in real trouble.

NC State at Clemson - You can't beat Louisville and North Carolina and then drop games at BC and Clemson and expect to get in.

Texas A&M at Florida - The kind of game Texas A&M needs to win to take all doubt away from the committee.

Wednesday

Ohio State at Penn State - Buckeyes win, they are a lock. Plain and simple.

Tennessee at LSU - LSU is doing everything right lately. Keep it that way and they'll be a happy bunch on Selection Sunday.

Richmond at UMass - UMass pretty much needs to win out and make a deep run in the A10 Tourney.

Miami (FL) at Pittsburgh (BUBBLE SPECIAL) - Has a feeling of a "the team that loses sees their bubble burst" kind of game.

Purdue at Michigan State (BUBBLE SPECIAL) - Both will be okay if they lose but the winner locks up their spot.

TCU at Oklahoma State - OK State just needs to avoid the bad loss to lock up their spot. Been that way the last 3 games.

Cincinnati at Tulsa (BUBBLE SPECIAL) - Big opportunity for Tulsa to prove they are worthy. Cincy can absorb this loss but would rather not still.

USC at UCLA - USC is really bad. So UCLA better win to stay in the conversation.

Colorado State at Nevada - Colorado State looks like a tourney team. Loss here may make others think maybe not.

Nebraska at Illinois - Can you say "must-win" for the Illini? Because I can.

Boise State at San Jose State - SJSU has yet to win a conference game. This would not the right time for Boise State to be in a giving mood.

Oregon at Oregon State - It's a rivalry game but for Oregon, it takes on more meaning as they play for a NCAA Tournament berth too.

Thursday

Wisconsin at Minnesota - Wisconsin can still get that final 1 seed. One loss though ends that dream most likely.

VCU at Davidson - VCU is safe. Davidson is not. So you get the point.

Temple at East Carolina - Temple needs to avoid the bad loss. This would be a bad loss.

Marshall at Old Dominion - ODU cannot afford any loss in any way.

Memphis at UConn - UConn is charging hard and needs to if they want to stay in the discussion.

Stanford at Arizona State - Stanford has had plenty of chances to not be in the position they are in. ASU is not an easy win in Tempe but the Cardinal need it badly.

Next update after Thursday's games.

MB