2015 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 14

Plain and simple, that Friday was a big deal. And I know it doesn't make a ton of sense to change a lot just because of one day in Championship Week but when the margin between some of these teams is so razor thin on paper, one win or loss on the court is cause for change. And with that in mind, read below the many moves that have been made, including a new 1 seed!

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MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: 2 more teams are safely in the field by my estimation. Georgia avoided a third loss to South Carolina and despite not one top 50 RPI win, the Bulldogs have done enough. Purdue also avoided a bad loss vs. Penn State. A top 4 finish in the Big Ten regular season and a semifinal appearance in the conference tournament is enough for me.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (39): Kentucky, Virginia, Villanova, Wisconsin, Duke, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas, Maryland, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Baylor, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Northern Iowa, SMU, Utah, Louisville, West Virginia, Georgetown, Arkansas, Wichita State, Providence, San Diego State, Xavier, Butler, Michigan State, Cincinnati, VCU, NC State, St. John's, Oregon, Iowa, Dayton, Ohio State, Davidson, Temple, Georgia, Purdue


AUTOS: Another team has clinched and a few others I predicted have been upset.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Irvine, Colonial - Northeastern, Conference USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Manhattan, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - Delaware State, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Lafayette, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: And it's down to just 8 teams. And keep in mind, there are still 4 bid stealers alive (Auburn in the SEC, UConn in the AAC, Rhode Island in the A-10, and Wyoming in the Mountain West) so for the final 4 teams on this list, those are the teams you do not want to see win their conference tournaments. If they do, one spot for each team in this already shrinking field is taken away.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (8): Colorado State, Oklahoma State, Texas, LSU, Indiana, BYU, Boise State, Ole Miss

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: I cut this down to just 12 because that's really all it comes down to. And the only two that have games remaining are Tulsa and Rhode Island. And let me tell you, Tulsa is knocking on the door. With a win vs. UConn, they may just walk into an AT-LARGE spot. We'll see though. I'm bullish on taking out any of the teams in that group as of now because in most years, they would have done enough.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (12): Colorado State, Oklahoma State, Texas, LSU, Indiana, BYU, Boise State, Ole Miss, Tulsa, UCLA, Rhode Island, Richmond

SEEDING

I don't normally write in this section but I thought I should to explain my big move: moving Wisconsin to a 1 seed and moving Duke down to a 2 seed. This came due to Duke's loss to Notre Dame in the ACC Semifinals. Not since 2008 have 2 teams from the same conference been a 1 seed (Big East had three 1 seeds in '08). And I couldn't find one instance when a team did not win the regular season crown OR tournament crown and get a 1 seed in the last 10 tournaments. So why should Duke break that trend? Especially when you have teams as strong as Villanova, Arizona, Gonzaga and Kansas who are all worthy of a 1 seed in their own way and ALL may win their regular season AND tournament crown.

As for Virginia staying at a 1 seed despite two losses in a week, that's what happens when you start the year the way they did. You allow yourself some leeway. Plus, I think the committee decides not to penalize them for Justin Anderson missing the Louisville game and for him not being 100% yet vs. UNC. He should be fine by time the NCAA Tournament begins.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big 12 (7), Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), SEC (5), American (3), Mountain West (3), A-10 (3), Pac-12 (3), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: None

NEW TEAMS OUT: None

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Purdue vs. Wisconsin (Big Ten Semifinals) - Wisconsin would immediately lose the 1 seed they just were promoted to with a loss here.

Rhode Island vs. Dayton (A-10 Semifinals) - A lot of teams are rooting for Dayton here. Rhode Island is dangerously close to getting in on their resume already but they steal a bid if they win the tournament.

UConn vs. Tulsa (American Semifinals) - UConn is trying to steal a bid. Tulsa is trying to work their way onto the right side of the bubble. HUGE game.

Wyoming vs. San Diego State (Mountain West Championship) - BID STEALER ALERT! A Wyoming win means someone is dropping out of the AT-LARGE group and this late in the game, that team is unlikely to return.

Xavier vs. Villanova (Big East Championship) - Villanova drops to a 2 seed if they fall here. Too many good teams behind them ready to replace them on that line.

Oregon vs. Arizona (Pac-12 Championship) - Arizona is already playing like a 1 seed right now. Win here and help from Wisconsin and/or Villanova will likely see the Wildcats jumping up.

Other Conference Championship Games: America East, MEAC, C-USA, Ivy, Big 12, SWAC, MAC, ACC, Big Sky, Southland, WAC, Big West

Next bracket posted tomorrow, which just so happens to be Selection Sunday!

MB