The journey that is Barnes Bracketology is almost over. It's a little bit sad but a lot more exciting. Because as much as I enjoy breaking down these teams and making the best possible bracket, I enjoy watching the games even more. Seeing 68 teams get down to 4 teams in a span of 2 weeks is the closest thing to sports television heaven I can think of. And while this year, there looks to be one obvious champion out there, what if that team doesn't win? What if they get upset early like so many top seeds have before them? That's the reason we watch the tournament and why I can't wait until the madness begins.
MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)
LOCKS: I spent the last few days really looking over each team's resume and after doing that, I moved some teams around. For instance, VCU took a bit of a slide as I took into further consideration their play as of late without Briante Weber, their best defender. The committee is likely to dock them knowing he is gone for the season. I also added Davidson to this list. May be a bit early for that but they won the A-10 outright. That's enough for me when I have 2 others from the conference in as LOCKS.
This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.
This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.
LOCKS (36): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas, Maryland, Baylor, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Utah, Oklahoma, Northern Iowa, SMU, Louisville, North Carolina, West Virginia, Wichita State, Georgetown, Arkansas, Butler, Providence, San Diego State, St. John's, Cincinnati, Iowa, VCU, Michigan State, NC State, Xavier, Dayton, Temple, Ohio State, Davidson
AUTOS: God amount of change here as some of my choices in these conference tournaments lost. They have now been replaced by the champs and you'll also see them in the bracket.
Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold
AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - Northeastern, Conference USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Manhattan, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Lafayette, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State
AT-LARGE: Down to just 11 spots in this group and will shrink as the days go on here. I made a change in this group by taking UCLA out and putting Indiana back in. As I said earlier, I took a long look at teams in these days off for pretty much all the teams and decided to swap the two. Still plenty of time for this to change again though.
These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.
These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.
AT-LARGE (11): Georgia, LSU, Oregon, Colorado State, Purdue, Oklahoma State, BYU, Boise State, Ole Miss, Texas, Indiana
BUBBLE WATCH
BUBBLE: Goodbye Murray State, Louisiana Tech and Pittsburgh. After going through everything, those teams just have no shot of getting in the field ahead of the 20 teams ahead of them. And with just 11 spots left, I'm not letting them up space on the post. Kudos to BYU who had played themselves onto the right side of the bubble for now. Others can do that in the coming days with upsets in their conference tournaments. Those near the end of this list may still need to win their tournaments to get in.
These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.
BUBBLE (20): Georgia, LSU, Oregon, Colorado State, Purdue, Oklahoma State, BYU, Boise State, Ole Miss, Texas, Indiana, Texas A&M, UCLA, Illinois, Tulsa, Miami (FL), Richmond, Old Dominion, Rhode Island, Stanford
These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.
BUBBLE (20): Georgia, LSU, Oregon, Colorado State, Purdue, Oklahoma State, BYU, Boise State, Ole Miss, Texas, Indiana, Texas A&M, UCLA, Illinois, Tulsa, Miami (FL), Richmond, Old Dominion, Rhode Island, Stanford
SEEDING
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big 12 (7), Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), SEC (5), American (3), Mountain West (3), A-10 (3), Pac-12 (3), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big 12 (7), Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), SEC (5), American (3), Mountain West (3), A-10 (3), Pac-12 (3), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)
NEW TEAMS IN: Indiana
NEW TEAMS OUT: UCLA
(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH
**Kentucky is the overall top seed
Florida State vs. Virginia (ACC Quarterfinals) - Virginia is a bit fragile right now with the 1 seed with the Justin Anderson injury. I still think they'll hold on to it but a loss here may add some doubt.
Marquette vs. Villanova (Big East Quarterfinals) - A Villanova upset loss would mean a ton for Arizona, Wisconsin and maybe even Gonzaga who are trying to snag that final 1 seed. Villanova's margin is razor thin, especially when it comes to Wisconsin.
TCU vs. Kansas (Big 12 Quarterfinals) - Kansas is banged up and short a few players. Not a problem in terms of making the field but Maryland could snag their 2 seed with an early loss here and a Maryland deep run.
California vs. Arizona (Pac-12 Quarterfinals) - As mentioned above, Arizona could get a 1 seed. They need some help and to obviously, win this tournament.
Air Force vs. Boise State (Mountain West Quarterfinals) - I think Boise is in decent shape though I have them playing in the First Four. But a loss here will have them on thin ice, despite winning the Mountain West in the regular season.
Auburn vs. Texas A&M (SEC 2nd Rd) - One of the things about the Aggies resume is that it doesn;t have any bad losses. This would be one, especially since they are on the outside looking in.
Middle Tennessee State vs. Old Dominion (CUSA Quarterfinals) - ODU not only needs to probably get to the CUSA title game but get some help from some other bubble teams.
USC vs. UCLA (Pac-12 Quarterfinals) - UCLA's margin of error is gone. Need this win and then a quality win in the semifinals. And that still may not be enough.
Northwestern vs. Indiana (Big Ten 2nd Rd) - The Wildcats just beat the Hoosiers not too long ago. If that happens again, Indiana can begin to prepare for the NIT.
Texas vs. Iowa State (Big 12 Quarterfinals) - This will be a tough win for Texas but they might just need it. They don't have a bad loss and this wouldn't be either. But they don't have enough good wins.
Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 Quarterfinals) - Little intrastate rivalry with a lot on the line for OKST. The Cowboys might be in better shape than I think but they'll be a LOCK if they pull off this neutral site victory.
Colorado vs. Oregon (Pac-12 Quarterfinals) - The Ducks are doing everything right, getting hot at the right time. Don't let the committee's last look of you be a loss to lowly Colorado
South Carolina vs. Ole Miss (SEC 2nd Rd) - Ole Miss looked solid not too long ago but not now. Won't say must-win but a loss allows others the chance to jump them with better wins.
Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame (ACC Quarterfinals) - Miami (FL)'s win at Duke can only go so far. They need another feather in its cap. Great chance here.
Fresno State vs. Colorado State (Mountain West Quarterfinals) - Colorado State's resume is not all that impressive, but lately they've done well to avoid the bad loss. Do that one more time and their case to be in strengthens yet again.
Stanford vs. Utah (Pac-12 Quarterfinals) - Very likely the Cardinal need to get to the title game to have real case that they belong.
GAMES TO WATCH
Michigan vs. Illinois (Big Ten 2nd Rd) - A must-win for Illinois to stay in the discussion for an AT-LARGE. And they'll likely need the upset of Wisconsin as well.Florida State vs. Virginia (ACC Quarterfinals) - Virginia is a bit fragile right now with the 1 seed with the Justin Anderson injury. I still think they'll hold on to it but a loss here may add some doubt.
Marquette vs. Villanova (Big East Quarterfinals) - A Villanova upset loss would mean a ton for Arizona, Wisconsin and maybe even Gonzaga who are trying to snag that final 1 seed. Villanova's margin is razor thin, especially when it comes to Wisconsin.
TCU vs. Kansas (Big 12 Quarterfinals) - Kansas is banged up and short a few players. Not a problem in terms of making the field but Maryland could snag their 2 seed with an early loss here and a Maryland deep run.
California vs. Arizona (Pac-12 Quarterfinals) - As mentioned above, Arizona could get a 1 seed. They need some help and to obviously, win this tournament.
Air Force vs. Boise State (Mountain West Quarterfinals) - I think Boise is in decent shape though I have them playing in the First Four. But a loss here will have them on thin ice, despite winning the Mountain West in the regular season.
Auburn vs. Texas A&M (SEC 2nd Rd) - One of the things about the Aggies resume is that it doesn;t have any bad losses. This would be one, especially since they are on the outside looking in.
Middle Tennessee State vs. Old Dominion (CUSA Quarterfinals) - ODU not only needs to probably get to the CUSA title game but get some help from some other bubble teams.
USC vs. UCLA (Pac-12 Quarterfinals) - UCLA's margin of error is gone. Need this win and then a quality win in the semifinals. And that still may not be enough.
Northwestern vs. Indiana (Big Ten 2nd Rd) - The Wildcats just beat the Hoosiers not too long ago. If that happens again, Indiana can begin to prepare for the NIT.
Texas vs. Iowa State (Big 12 Quarterfinals) - This will be a tough win for Texas but they might just need it. They don't have a bad loss and this wouldn't be either. But they don't have enough good wins.
Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 Quarterfinals) - Little intrastate rivalry with a lot on the line for OKST. The Cowboys might be in better shape than I think but they'll be a LOCK if they pull off this neutral site victory.
Colorado vs. Oregon (Pac-12 Quarterfinals) - The Ducks are doing everything right, getting hot at the right time. Don't let the committee's last look of you be a loss to lowly Colorado
South Carolina vs. Ole Miss (SEC 2nd Rd) - Ole Miss looked solid not too long ago but not now. Won't say must-win but a loss allows others the chance to jump them with better wins.
Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame (ACC Quarterfinals) - Miami (FL)'s win at Duke can only go so far. They need another feather in its cap. Great chance here.
Fresno State vs. Colorado State (Mountain West Quarterfinals) - Colorado State's resume is not all that impressive, but lately they've done well to avoid the bad loss. Do that one more time and their case to be in strengthens yet again.
Stanford vs. Utah (Pac-12 Quarterfinals) - Very likely the Cardinal need to get to the title game to have real case that they belong.
Next update comes tomorrow. That's right, Barnes Bracketology is going daily until Selection Sunday. And on Selection Sunday, the hope is to post a bracket in the morning and one final one at halftime of the Big Ten title game (if necessary). So check back tomorrow for any updates and there should be some considering all the BUBBLE teams in action on Thursday.
MB
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