2015 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 9

We're down to less than a week until Selection Sunday. And that means a week until we find out how accurate I was with my final bracket. I got a bit of a hint of how the committee plans on seeding and placing the team in the bracket. The committee chairman was on TV and mentioned that geography is more paramount than matchups. That means just because a team may be the best 2 seed doesn't mean they will play the worst 1 seed. That is HUGE news for me, as instead of making the bracket that makes the most sense, I have to tweak my thinking to change to what the committee will be doing. After all, that's why I do this.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: As expected, we have some new entries in this category after the weekend. All joining thanks to wins. NC State, Xavier and Temple have done enough for me to be in the field. Others are very, very close.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (35): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas,Maryland, Baylor, Notre Dame, Utah, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Northern Iowa, SMU, Louisville, North Carolina, West Virginia, Wichita State, Arkansas, Georgetown, Butler, VCU, Providence, San Diego State, St. John's, Michigan State, Dayton, Cincinnati, Iowa, NC State, Xavier, Temple, Ohio State



AUTOS: Championship week is underway for some of these conferences.For others, it is soon to start. And for a a few, it is over and that means berths are clinched. So look for those changes and congrats to those teams.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Lafayette, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Indiana is playing itself into a sticky situation. Same goes for Ole Miss. In the meantime, kudos to Texas for re-joining this group. Davidson, LSU, and Purdue are the big movers up in this group from the weekend. I'd lock up a few more of these teams normally but with 9 potential bid stealers out there, better safe than sorry.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (12): LSU, Colorado State, Georgia, Purdue, Oregon, Davidson, Boise State, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, UCLA, BYU, Texas

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: This group is larger than I imagined it would be this late. That doesn't mean the teams are strong. Just means more mediocrity on the bubble. Indiana is on the outside looking in now. Meanwhile, Tulsa and Illinois missed out on big wins on the road. And look out for Richmond charging hard. And for those looking for Murray State, they made the list but their chances of getting to an AT-LARGE are incredibly slim, considering their lackluster resume and their lack of games left (zero).

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (24): LSU, Colorado State, Georgia, Purdue, Oregon, Davidson, Boise State, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, UCLA, BYU, Texas, Indiana, Miami (FL), Tulsa, Illinois, Texas A&M, Old Dominion, Richmond, Rhode Island, Stanford, Louisiana Tech, Murray State, Pittsburgh

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big 12 (7), Big Ten (6), ACC (6), Big East (6), SEC (5), Pac-12 (4), American (3), Mountain West (3), A-10 (3),  Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: Texas

NEW TEAMS OUT: Indiana

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

West Coast Championship (Tuesday) - Potential bid-stealer. If Gonzaga or BYU does not win this, one of those BUBBLE spots are going away. If BYU gets to the title game and faces Gonzaga, they have a real chance of getting into the field even with a loss to Gonzaga.

Next update comes Tuesday with the annual BUBBLE special as we dissect the teams fighting to get in and let you decide who deserves those final few spots.

MB