2015 Barnes Bracketology: Bubble Watch

It's that annual tradition of Barnes Bracketology where I lay out the resumes of the bubble teams and let you decide if I'm right or wrong about the bubble teams.

I'll be honest, this is the hardest part, coming up with those last few teams. Right now, I have 24 teams on the BUBBLE battling for the final 12 spots.

Now granted, I could narrow down those 24 to maybe 20 and those spots from 12 to maybe 8 but I am being very cautious this year, trying to do my due diligence.

And so without further adieu, here are the numbers, in RPI order. The color coding just defines how I see them in the bracket right now. Below the numbers, I will answer some FAQ's that I have received during this process so far

FAQS

What do you consider the most important criteria for these BUBBLE teams?
I don't have one set criteria. I'm a big fan of a team that has big wins. When it comes to these teams, you sometimes get the mix of teams with a deceptively good RPI, like Old Dominion and Colorado State, but don't have the big wins that seem to warrant it. So I look at how good those wins were. I also look for teams that are playing well in the last month or so. And lastly, the strength of schedule is huge for me. I look less at bad losses than others might. Teams have off nights to bad teams. But if you make up for it with some great nights vs. good teams, I'll consider the great win more.

Is it true the committee cares more about geography than matchups?
Sadly, this is accurate. The committee chair said as much on CBS on Sunday. What this means for a team like Wisconsin, who is currently my highest ranked 2 seed, is that they would rather the Badgers be placed in the Cleveland regional where Kentucky will be placed instead of the region with the weakest 1 seed (for me, that's Villanova) because Madison, WI is closest to Cleveland. That's absurd to me. It makes the regions uneven and for those top seeds, that's a big deal. I wish they would use common sense and just worry about the first couple rounds in regards to geography. After that, worry about making the regions as even as possible.

OSU has one win over a top-50 RPI team. Oklahoma State has 6! Why is one OSU a lock and the other not?
This is a great question that brings up the argument that it's not all about the numbers sometimes. When you see something like that, you think Oklahoma State is getting a raw deal. But look closer. The Cowboys were under .500 in their conference. They are 17-12, an underwhelming record. They are 5-7 in their last 12 games. And they have two losses vs. teams with a sub-100 RPI. None of those are good. Meanwhile, Ohio State does not have one sub-100 RPI loss, finished 11-7 in conference play, are 8-4 in the last 12 games and have an overall record of 22-9. Yes, it's not impressive to have just one win against a team that is a LOCK for the tournament (home win vs. Maryland) at this stage, but the Buckeyes have done enough while the Cowboys are still struggling to prove they are worthy.

Buffalo is ranked 32nd in the RPI and not even considered a BUBBLE team. What gives?
I'm an alum of a MAC school (Ohio University) so I would love to include the Bulls in the mix but this is another case of looking past the numbers. There's not a quality win on that resume. Not one win against a team that will make the tournament, besides the winner of the MAC tournament. And 9 losses on the season, with 6 coming in conference play? Yikes. Sorry Buffalo, but if you want to dancing, better win the conference tournament.

Murray State went perfect in their conference but got upset in their conference tournament. Can they get in?
Short answer: it's a long shot. The Racers look like a great team when you watch them. Have a good, up and coming coach and a quality player in Cameron Payne. But man, besides that record, those numbers are terrible. The 256th best strength of schedule doesn't inspire me that you're as good as your record is. Plus, when Murray State did play quality competition like Xavier and Valparaiso, they lost by 27 and 35 respectively. They only have one decent win and that's vs. Illinois State, who did knock off Wichita State last week. But even that's just okay, since it was at home. This is just that simple case of bad luck. Win all those games in a row and lose the biggest one of the year and be left watching the Big Dance from home.

Who do you think will win it all?
I don't make predictions on who will make the Final Four or anything like that until I see the bracket completed. It's all about matchups and it's foolish to pick a team and then see their road be littered with bad matchups and stick with them. So I'll refrain from picking any one until then (but it's probably going to be Kentucky) 

Alright, that's all for now. I'll have a new bracket posted on Thursday. It may feature some drastic changes as I reevaluate every team closely for the last time, because come Thursday's games, we will be making just some subtle changes to seedings and making more time figuring out who gets in and who gets out, as I'm sure the committee will be doing as well.

MB