2012 Barnes Bracketology - FINAL

We have come to the end everyone. No need for a lengthy intro. Just the facts.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS (42): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Creighton, Wichita State, San Diego State, UNLV, Kentucky, Florida, St. Mary's, Murray State, Notre Dame, Indiana, New Mexico, Purdue, Iowa State, Memphis, Southern Miss, Saint Louis, Alabama, Temple, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Cincinnati, West Virginia, UConn, Texas, Xavier, Colorado State

AUTOS (21): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Atlantic-10: St. Bonaventure, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - UNC-Asheville , Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - VCU, Horizon - Detroit, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Ohio, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - LIU-Brooklyn, Pac-12 - Colorado, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Lamar, SWAC - Mississippi Valley State, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Western Kentucky, WAC -New Mexico State

AT-LARGE (5): California, South Florida, BYU, Seton Hall, NC State

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE (13): California, South Florida, BYU, Seton Hall, NC State, Mississippi State, Drexel, Northwestern, Washington, Miami (FL), Arizona, Marshall, Iona

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (10), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), A-10 (4), MWC (4), SEC (4), WCC (3), C-USA (2)Pac-12 (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

And that's all she wrote. Here are my goals:

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region
2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots
3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct
4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup

I'll write a recap post after the brackets are announced later today (hopefully)

MB

2012 Barnes Bracketology - Bubble Watch Special

No brackets or seeding today boys and girls. Instead, some good old-fashioned bubble breakdown. One day during Championship Week, I like to just post the credentials/resume of the teams that are on my bubble. This way, it gives you a chance to deicde for yourself who you think deserves those final few spots in the field.

As of the morning of Thursday, March 8th, I think there are 10 spots still in play and 19 teams fighting for those spots. Of course, as I write this, UConn is leading Syracuse and regardless of winning or losing this game, is likely in just because of the performance against one of the top 2 teams in the country and on a neutral court AND on their third day of playing basketball in a row.

So with that said, here they are: your candidates for the final at-large spots in the Barnes Bracketology field of 68.

Listed in alphabetical order (RPI rankings from ESPN.com)
SOS = strength of schedule

Arizona (21-10)
RPI: 79
SOS: 87
Non-Conf SOS: 131
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 1-4
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-8
Road W-L: 7-5
Quality Wins: @ California
Bad Losses: UCLA, Arizona State

Case FOR: Good road record, good overall record
Case AGAINST: Lot of bad RPI and SOS numbers, only one top-50 RPI win

California (23-8)
RPI: 37
SOS: 100
Non-Conf SOS: 80
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-6
Road W-L: 5-6
Quality Wins: Oregon (x 2), @ Washington
Bad Losses: Oregon State, Washington State

Case FOR: Best RPI number of all Pac-12 teams, good overall record, RPI Top-100 wins solid
Case AGAINST: SOS is not good, quality wins are only in conference, and conference was weak.

Colorado State (18-10)
RPI: 20
SOS: 4
Non-Conf SOS: 26
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 3-5
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-8
Road W-L: 3-9
Quality Wins: San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV
Bad Losses: TCU, Boise State

Case FOR: Great RPI and SOS numbers though they are misleading, good quality wins, not bad against RPI Top-100
Case AGAINST: Not a good road record, lots of losses, would be 4th team in Mountain West

Drexel (27-6)
RPI: 65
SOS: 249
Non-Conf SOS: 226
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50:1-2
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 4-3
Road W-L: 11-3
Quality Wins: VCU
Bad Losses: Norfolk State, Georgia State, Delaware

Case FOR: Great overall record, won 25 of last 27 games, fantastic road record, not bad against top-100 in small sample
Case AGAINST: SOS is terrible, only one top-50 RPI win, bad losses are real black eyes

Iona (25-7)
RPI: 45
SOS: 156
Non-Conf SOS: 44
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 1-1
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-3
Road W-L: 11-4
Quality Wins: Nevada
Bad Losses: Fairfield, Manhattan (at home), Hofstra, Siena

Case FOR: Good RPI number, Played tough non-conference schedule, good road record, good vs. RPI top-100 when given chance
Case AGAINST: SOS is not good, not a real quality win, lots of bad losses

Long Beach State (20-8)
RPI: 35
SOS: 89
Non-Conf SOS: 1
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 0-6
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 2-7
Road W-L: 8-7
Quality Wins: Xavier
Bad Losses: Cal-State Fullerton

Case FOR: Solid RPI number, only one loss in conference play, played toughest non-conference schedule in the country
Case AGAINST: Didn't beat any of the top-50 RPI teams they played, bad loss to end conference play

Miami (FL) (18-11)
RPI: 51
SOS: 50
Non-Conf SOS: 129
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 2-7
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 3-10
Road W-L: 4-8
Quality Wins: @ Duke, Florida State
Bad Losses: Maryland, NC State (x 2)

Case FOR: Great win at Duke, Decent and SOS number
Case AGAINST: Lots of chances but not many wins against top competition, 2 losses to fellow bubble team NC State, non-conference schedule weak

Mississippi State (21-10)
RPI: 62
SOS: 76
Non-Conf SOS: 197
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 3-4
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 8-8
Road W-L: 3-6
Quality Wins: West Virginia, Alabama, @ Vanderbilt
Bad Losses: Georgia (at home), Auburn

Case FOR: Good quality wins, good record vs. RPI Top 100
Case AGAINST: Awful non-conference schedule, RPI and SOS numbers not strong

NC State (20-11)
RPI: 52
SOS: 19
Non-Conf SOS: 16
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 1-8
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-9
Road W-L: 5-4
Quality Wins: Texas, Miami (FL) (x 2)
Bad Losses: Clemson, Georgia Tech (at home)

Case FOR: Great SOS and non-conference SOS numbers, decent RPI number, good road record, wins against fellow bubble teams
Case AGAINST: Only one top-50 RPI win despite numerous chances

Northwestern (18-12)
RPI: 44
SOS: 8
Non-Conf SOS: 51
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 1-10
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-12
Road W-L: 4-7
Quality Wins: Michigan State, Seton Hall
Bad Losses: None

Case FOR: Good RPI number, strong SOS number, 5 top-100 RPI wins, not one really bad loss
Case AGAINST: 11 chances against top-50 RPI teams and just one win

Oregon (22-8)
RPI: 49
SOS: 87
Non-Conf SOS: 116
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 0-5
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-7
Road W-L: 7-4
Quality Wins: @ Arizona, Washington
Bad Losses: Oregon State (at home)

Case FOR: Decent RPI number, not bad against top-100 RPI
Case AGAINST: No real quality wins, did nothing in non-conference, overall SOS isn't great

Seton Hall (20-12)
RPI: 59
SOS: 49
Non-Conf SOS: 119
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 4-8
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-9
Road W-L: 4-7
Quality Wins: VCU, West Virginia, UConn, Georgetown
Bad Losses: Villanova, DePaul, Rutgers (at home)

Case FOR: 4 quality wins, SOS is good, not a bad record vs. RPI top-100
Case AGAINST: Did nothing really in non-conference, DePaul loss is a black eye, had a rough February and March

South Florida (20-12)
RPI: 43
SOS: 32
Non-Conf SOS: 33
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 1-9
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-9
Road W-L: 5-8
Quality Wins: @ Louisville, Seton Hall, Cincinnati
Bad Losses: Old Dominion, Auburn, Penn State

Case FOR: Good RPI and SOS numbers, decent against RPI top-100, good Big East record (12-6)
Case AGAINST: 1 win in 10 chances against RPI top-50, 3 awful losses early in the season

Tennessee (18-13)
RPI: 75
SOS: 40
Non-Conf SOS: 165
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 4-7
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-9
Road W-L: 3-8
Quality Wins: Florida (x 2), UConn, Vanderbilt
Bad Losses: Oakland, Charleston, Georgia, Austin Peay (at home)

Case FOR: SOS is pretty good, great quality wins including sweep of Florida
Case AGAINST: RPI number not good, played weak non-conference schedule, a lot of bad losses

Texas (19-12)
RPI: 50
SOS: 20
Non-Conf SOS: 93
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 3-9
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 4-10
Road W-L: 4-7
Quality Wins: Temple, Iowa State, Kansas State
Bad Losses: Oregon State, Oklahoma State

Case FOR: Decent RPI, good SOS, 3 very good quality wins
Case AGAINST: Non-conference SOS not amazing, lots of chances for big wins and not a lot of wins

UConn (20-12)
RPI: 33
SOS: 3
Non-Conf SOS: 11
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 6-6
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 10-10
Road W-L: 3-7
Quality Wins: Florida State, Harvard, @ South Florida, West Virginia, Notre Dame, @ West Virginia
Bad Losses: Rutgers, Providence

Case FOR: Good RPI and SOS numbers, 6 top-50 RPI wins
Case AGAINST: Did not have a good February with Jim Calhoun not on sidelines

Xavier (19-11)
RPI: 55
SOS: 52
Non-Conf SOS: 60
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 2-6
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-10
Road W-L: 5-7
Quality Wins: @ Vanderbilt, Purdue, Cincinnati
Bad Losses: Hawaii

Case FOR: 3 good quality wins, decent RPI and SOS numbers, not bad on the road
Case AGAINST: 6-10 against the top-100 isn't amazing, didn't beat the best teams in their own conference

So now you see what I see. Who should be in and who should be out? I'll have my latest thoughts tomorrow complete with a new bracket. Until then, GO BOBCATS!

MB

2012 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 7

And then there were 5...days that is until Selection Sunday. And the trend that began over the weekend continued yesterday as bubble teams continue to be spared by bid-stealers. That makes my job harder as a "bracketologist" but hey, I'm a big boy. I can deal with it.

Today, there are 6 games that will have an impact on the bracket, including 3 in the Big East tournament so going to be another night of chances for teams to lock up their spot...or not.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes from previous projection in italics)

LOCKS: Nothing new to report here again sadly. The more names here, the easier it is for me but Seton Hall and UConn's wins over the bottom-feeders of the Big East aren't enough to have them ascend here yet.

LOCKS (38): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida State, Creighton, Wichita State, San Diego State, UNLV, Kentucky, Florida, St. Mary's, Murray State, Notre Dame, Temple, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Indiana, New Mexico, Purdue, Iowa State, Memphis, Southern Miss, Saint Louis, Alabama, Cincinnati, West Virginia

AUTOS: Congrats to 15-18 Western Kentucky for turning around what was an awful season into a trip to the Big Dance. With that said, you've also clinched a trip to Dayton and the First Four. Have fun. Congrats also goes out to Harvard, who backed into its automatic bid thanks to a Penn loss last night, South Dakota State, who took down Western Illinois to win the Summit, and Detroit, who beat Valpo on their home court to give the Titans a spot in the Big Dance.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - VCU, Horizon - Detroit, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Ohio, MEAC - Savannah State, Northeast -LIU-Brooklyn, Pac-12 - California, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - UT-Arlington, SWAC - Miss. Valley State, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Western Kentucky, WAC - Nevada

AT-LARGE: Seton Hall and UConn won yesterday in the Big East tournament. But the wins came against no one special. UConn did move up one spot just because they looked impressive. If they win today or at least look competitive vs. West Virginia, they'll be in decent shape to get in.

Reminder that the last four teams in this category will compete in the "First Four" games.

AT-LARGE (10): Colorado State, Seton Hall, Miami (FL), BYU, Xavier, South Florida, Mississippi State, Northwestern, UConn ,Washington

BUBBLE WATCH

Well, Harvard is no longer a BUBBLE team thanks to their automatic bid so we now have 19 teams fighting for what I think is 10 spots still up for grabs in the field. This will be a fluid situation as we get into these conference tournaments.

Again, these are in order so the teams near the end are barely hanging on to hope as of now.

BUBBLE (19): Colorado State, California, Seton Hall, Miami (FL), BYU, Xavier, Long Beach State, South Florida, Mississippi State, Northwestern, UConn, Washington, Texas, Drexel, NC State, Tennessee, Arizona, Oregon, Iona

SEEDING

Only changes made involve replacing teams with the team that actually won that conference. Look for more drastic changes tomorrow after the games tonight and I do my annual Bubble Watch post that tends to make me re-think the entire field and shuffle things around a bit.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (10), Big Ten (7), ACC (5), Big 12 (5), SEC (5), MWC (4), A-10 (3), WCC (3), C-USA (2), MVC (2), Pac-10 (2)


(click on bracket to enlarge)

SOUTH vs. WEST
EAST vs. MIDWEST

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

MOVING IN
Western Kentucky, Detroit

MOVING OUT
North Texas, Valparaiso

MOVING UP
None

MOVING DOWN
None

GAMES TO WATCH

WEDNESDAY
UConn vs. West Virginia (Big East Quarterfinals) - UConn gets in the tournament with this win. They may even get in with a loss, but they must look good losing.
Seton Hall vs. Louisville (Big East Quarterfinals) - Seton Hall may be in already but I'm not so sure yet. A win over the Cardinals would do it.
Villanova vs. South Florida (Big East Quarterfinals) - This does not qualify as a good win for USF. It does qualify as a bad loss, and one that may keep them out of the tourney.

Robert Morris vs. LIU-Brooklyn (Northeast Championship) - LIU-Brooklyn is the better team but Robert Morris has been in this position more recently.
Lehigh vs. Bucknell (Patriot Championship) - Bucknell has been there, done that. I expect to win and then promptly lose in the NCAA tournament again.
Weber State vs. Montana (Big Sky Championship) - Weber State should win and if they do, that's not a 13-15 seed I want to face in the second round.

Again, look for a bubble watch special either later today or Thursday as I break down what makes each worthy or unworthy of making the field. Until then, enjoy the games today and tonight and check back here soon!

MB

2012 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 6

If you missed the 4 conference championship games, I'm sorry for you. There were 4 amazing finals. All 4 games came down to the final minute. 2 games went to overtime. It was just thrilling TV and more importantly, just an appetizer for the Madness still to come this week and in the NCAA Tournament.

Again, updated this blog daily so don't expect a ton of changes like when I update every 3-4 days. These will be more subtle changes but very important ones as we get closer to Selection Sunday when I have my finalized bracket.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes from previous projection in italics)

LOCKS: No new names here as expected as all teams in play last night either had a bid locked up or had no chance of getting in this group with a win.

LOCKS (38): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida State, Creighton, Wichita State, San Diego State, UNLV, Kentucky, Florida, St. Mary's, Murray State, Notre Dame, Temple, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Indiana, New Mexico, Purdue, Iowa State, Memphis, Southern Miss, Saint Louis, Alabama, Cincinnati, West Virginia

AUTOS: Decent amount of changes here. First off, the big one which is VCU beating Drexel, earning the Rams a ticket to the Big Dance. The other changes involve upsets in conference tournament semifinals. Oral Roberts is out in the Summit and Denver is out in the Sun Belt. They have been replaced. Also, Loyola (MD) and Davidson are in for sure thanks to hard-fought wins last night.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - VCU, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Ohio, MEAC - Savannah State, , Northeast -LIU-Brooklyn, Pac-12 - California, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - UT-Arlington, SWAC - Miss. Valley State, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - North Texas, WAC - Nevada

AT-LARGE: Nothing new here as well as none of the ten teams in this category were in action.

Reminder that the last four teams in this category will compete in the "First Four" games.

AT-LARGE (10): Colorado State, Seton Hall, Miami (FL), BYU, Xavier, South Florida, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Washington, UConn

BUBBLE WATCH

VCU is a bubble team no more so this group now is down to 20 teams going for 10 teams. Drexel did lose yesterday but did no harm to themselves with the loss. Not only did they lose to a fellow BUBBLE team, but they played them well from start to finish. Don't be surprised to see them sneak into my projections with some losses from teams in front of them in the week ahead.

Again, these are in order so the teams near the end are barely hanging on to hope as of now.

BUBBLE (20): Colorado State, Harvard, California, Seton Hall, Miami (FL), BYU, Xavier, Long Beach State, South Florida, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Washington, UConn, Texas, Drexel, NC State, Tennessee, Arizona, Oregon, Iona

SEEDING

All the changes involved teams 13 or lower so nothing big. Just some subtle shifting to include the new teams.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (10), Big Ten (7), ACC (5), Big 12 (5), SEC (5), MWC (4), A-10 (3), WCC (3), C-USA (2), MVC (2), Pac-10 (2)


(click on bracket to enlarge)

SOUTH vs. WEST
EAST vs. MIDWEST

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

MOVING IN
VCU, North Texas, South Dakota State

MOVING OUT
Drexel, Denver, Oral Roberts

MOVING UP
Davidson (14 to 13), LIU-Brooklyn (16 to 15)

MOVING DOWN
None

GAMES TO WATCH

TUESDAY
DePaul vs. UConn (Big East 1st Round) - A must-win for UConn. They got back on track on Saturday vs. Pitt. A loss here seals their NIT fate I think.
Providence vs. Seton Hall (Big East 1 st Round) - I think Seton Hall is safe with a win over Providence. Been a sloppy spring to the end by the Pirates though.
Western Kentucky vs. North Texas (Sun Belt Championship) - WKU is under .500 and made a coaching change halfway through the season. North Texas is barely above .500. Winner gets a spot in the First Four in Dayton.
Western Illinois vs. South Dakota State (Summit Championship) - South Dakota State is a good team and won't be an easy out in the NCAA tournament, if they get there.
Detroit vs. Valparaiso (Horizon Championship) - What a season this has been for Valpo, led by Bryce Drew. If they win, he could possibly face brother Scott and Baylor in the NCAA tourney.

These 5 games could have a big bearing on the seeding so make sure you check back tomorrow. Expect a bubble special on Wednesday as I break down the contenders and what each need to get in.

MB

2012 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 5

Well, that was a fun weekend huh? Championship week is in full swing and teams that are on the bubble are doing everything they can to either stay there or lock up their spot. It only gets better from here though as more conference tournaments get going and more teams punch their ticket to the Big Dance.

The good news for you is that starting today, this blog will get updated daily! That's right, with the countdown clock less than a week until Selection Sunday, you deserve the best so I will give you the best I have. I mean, who needs sleep anyways!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes from previous projection in italics)

LOCKS: I am adding two more names to this list after the weekend. The first is Cincinnati. The Bearcats avoided a bad loss against Villanova and when looking at the rest of the AT-LARGE teams, they just seem like a cut above. So they are in. The other is West Virginia. The Mountaineers had some quality wins already. Beating South Florida in Tampa this past weekend made it one more. That's enough I think for them to feel safe come Sunday.

LOCKS (38): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida State, Creighton, Wichita State, San Diego State, UNLV, Kentucky, Florida, St. Mary's, Murray State, Notre Dame, Temple, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Indiana, New Mexico, Purdue, Iowa State, Memphis, Southern Miss, Saint Louis, Alabama, Cincinnati, West Virginia

AUTOS: For the first time, I can put some teams in bold on the blog. 4 teams punched their ticket to the dance via the conference tournament. Only 2 though really needed to do that though: UNC-Asheville and Belmont. Other changes here are because of upsets in conference tourneys that have made me switch my projection of who will get the bid.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Drexel, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Ohio, MEAC - Savannah State, , Northeast -LIU-Brooklyn, Pac-12 - California, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - UT-Arlington, SWAC - Miss. Valley State, Summit - Oral Roberts, Sun Belt - Denver, WAC - Nevada

AT-LARGE: As usual, after a weekend's worth of games, this group had some shifting. Only one team dropped out. That was Texas, who lost at Kansas. Not a bad loss by any means but when on the bubble, every loss hurts. UConn is back in after beating Pittsburgh. Having Jim Calhoun on the sideline should help them as they move forward. Just 10 spots left here now. Could have been less if Murray State and/or Creighton would have lost in their conference tournament championship game. But luckily for these teams, their chances of getting in the Dance are still pretty good.

Reminder that the last four teams in this category will compete in the "First Four" games.

AT-LARGE (10): Colorado State, Seton Hall, Miami (FL), BYU, Xavier, South Florida, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Washington, UConn

BUBBLE WATCH

Last time, we had 24 BUBBLE teams fighting for 12 AT-LARGE spots. Now, we have 21 BUBBLE teams fighting for just 10 AT-LARGE spots. 2 teams were promoted to a LOCK. 2 teams (Colorado, St. Joseph's) had their bubbles burst. I did add one team in Tennessee after the Vols knocked off Vandy. Out of nowhere, they have become a team to watch to possibly get a bid. Their record is ugly but the resume is pretty solid with 4 top-50 RPI wins. Still work to do but better to be on the BUBBLE than not at all.

Again, these are in order so the teams near the end are barely hanging on to hope as of now.

BUBBLE (21): Colorado State, Harvard, California, Seton Hall, Miami (FL), BYU, Xavier, Long Beach State, South Florida, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Washington, UConn, Texas, VCU, Drexel, NC State, Tennessee, Arizona, Oregon, Iona

SEEDING

With one week left, some teams are truly locked in their seeds. I think Kentucky and Syracuse are #1 seeds no matter what now. The other two #1 seeds are still in play in my mind. For now, UNC is up to a #1 seed after that win at Duke. Beyond that, no other movement in the top 4 seeds. Kentucky moved back to the South region as Kansas makes more sense in the Midwest region.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (10), Big Ten (7), ACC (5), Big 12 (5), SEC (5), MWC (4), A-10 (3), WCC (3), C-USA (2), MVC (2), Pac-10 (2)


(click on bracket to enlarge)

SOUTH vs. WEST
EAST vs. MIDWEST

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

MOVING IN
UConn, Loyola (MD), Denver

MOVING OUT
Texas, Iona, Middle Tennessee

MOVING UP
North Carolina (2 to 1), Creighton (6 to 5), Notre Dame (7 to 6), Iowa State (8 to 7), West Virginia (12 to 10), Miami (FL) (12 to 11), Nevada (14 to 13), Weber State (15 to 14), Belmont (15 to 14)

MOVING DOWN
Duke (1 to 2), San Diego State (5 to 6), Murray State (6 to 7), Virginia (7 to 8), Seton Hall (10 to 11), South Florida (11 to 12), Long Beach State (11 to 12)

GAMES TO WATCH

MONDAY
VCU vs. Drexel (Colonial Championship) - Winner can breathe easy and celebrate until Sunday. The loser will sit firmly on the bubble, hoping and waiting to hear their name called on Sunday.

Loyola (MD) vs. Fairfield (MAAC Championship) - This was supposed to be Iona's title to lose. Now one of these two will be in the Big Dance.

Western Carolina vs. Davidson (Southern Championship) - No doubt, Davidson is the favorite here. If they win, I don't wanna be that 3 or 4 seed playing them in the second round.

Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's (West Coast Championship) - Yawn...these two teams again playing for the WCC title. At least this time, only thing on the line is bragging rights. Both teams are firmly in the field.

So there's your Monday update. Check back tomorrow for the next update as we get closer to the bracket being revealed and yours truly seeing how good or bad I did compared to those who get paid to do this nonsense. Enjoy the games!

MB

2012 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 2

Happy March everyone! The month that brings bubble talk, buzzer-beaters, and "One Shining Moment" is here and I for one, couldn't be more excited. Championship Week has already begun and in just 10 days from now, we'll have a bracket to break down ad nauseam.

But until we get to that point, there are games to play, and some big ones too. There are conference championships to win and bubbles to be burst. So buckle up for these final 10 days, because it's gonna be just as wild as the tournament itself.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes from previous projection in italics)

LOCKS: At this point in the season, sometimes it's not about getting the quality victory but also avoiding the terrible loss. Well, the 4 teams who have been added to this group in the past 4 days did just that. Memphis is in after a resounding win over UCF. Southern Miss got past SMU. Saint Louis got an important victory against Xavier. And Alabama continued their strong play of late with a win over Auburn. All 4 should be in now, no matter how they finish their season.

LOCKS (36): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida State, Creighton, Wichita State, San Diego State, UNLV, Kentucky, Florida, St. Mary's, Murray State, Notre Dame, Temple, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Indiana, New Mexico, Purdue, Iowa State, Memphis, Southern Miss, Saint Louis, Alabama

AUTOS: With Memphis moving up to the LOCKS category, we're down to just 20 teams in this category. Many of these teams are in the middle of their conference tournament right now so all that matters is winning. I didn't make one single change in this category as either the team I predicted to win the conference tournament is still in or the tournament has yet to start and I simply think the team listed is the one who will come away with the championship.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Drexel, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Ohio, MEAC - Savannah State, , Northeast -LIU-Brooklyn, Pac-12 - California, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - UT-Arlington, SWAC - Miss. Valley State, Summit - Oral Roberts, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC - Nevada

AT-LARGE: This ever-changing group has changed again. first off, we're down to just 12 spots left. That means the margin of error is getting smaller for the BUBBLE teams. So getting a good win can really do wonders for your chances. That's exactly what Cincinnati (win vs. Marquette) and South Florida (win @ Louisville) did this past week. While other teams in this category (Northwestern, Miami (FL), UConn) lost, those teams did what they had to do to get closer to securing their spot. With one game left in the regular season, a big win for any of the teams in this list is a big deal.

Reminder that the last four teams in this category will compete in the "First Four" games.

AT-LARGE (12): Cincinnati, Seton Hall, BYU, South Florida, Colorado State, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier, Miami (FL), Texas, Mississippi State, Northwestern.

BUBBLE WATCH

The bubble is still alive and well but it is shrinking. Last update, there were 31 teams on the bubble. Now, just 24. 3 more bubbles were burst as UCF, UMass and Illinois all saw their dreams of getting in the tournament via an AT-LARGE go away. They could possibly get back in the conversation with a deep conference tournament run but it is unlikely they get in the tournament without winning the conference tournament. No new additions to the BUBBLE. Just deletions.

Again, these are in order so the teams near the end are barely hanging on to hope as of now.

BUBBLE (24): Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Harvard, California, Long Beach State, BYU, South Florida, Colorado State, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier, Miami (FL), Texas, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Arizona, VCU, UConn, NC State, Drexel, Oregon, Iona, St. Joseph's, Colorado

SEEDING

Lot more movement here than normal. Yet again, we have another 1 seed. This time, Kansas joins the ranks after Michigan State's loss to Indiana. Ohio State moves back up to a 2 seed after Marquette's disappointing defeat at Cincinnati. Michigan also moves up to a 3 seed while Florida falls to a 4 seed after losing at Vanderbilt. All those subtle shifts led to some big shifts in the bracket, including a region change for the first time for Kentucky. The top overall seed is now coming out of the Midwest region and not the South.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (9), Big Ten (7), ACC (5), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), MWC (4), A-10 (3), WCC (3), C-USA (2), MVC (2), Pac-10 (2)


(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

MOVING IN
Texas, Mississippi State

MOVING OUT
Arizona, UConn

MOVING UP
Kansas (2 to 1), Ohio State (3 to 2), Michigan (4 to 3), Indiana (6 to 4), Vanderbilt (7 to 6), Memphis (9 to 8), Alabama (10 to 9), Saint Louis (10 to 9), Cincinnati (11 to 10), Colorado State (12 to 11), South Florida (12 to 11)

MOVING DOWN
Michigan State (1 to 2), Marquette (2 to 3), Florida (3 to 4), Louisville (4 to 5), Creighton (5 to 6), Notre Dame (6 to 7), New Mexico (8 to 9), Harvard (9 to 10), California (9 to 10), Washington (10 to 12), Xavier (11 to 12), Miami (FL) (12 to 13)

GAMES TO WATCH

FRIDAY
San Diego @ BYU - This shouldn't be a problem for BYU. Win this game and then avoid an early exit in the WCC Tourney and the Cougars should be okay.

SATURDAY
Louisville @ Syracuse - Syracuse has locked up its 1 seed. Now they hope to get the top overall seed. A win like this and a Kentucky loss may just do it.
North Carolina @ Duke - Love a game like this. Rivalry game with a 1 seed going to the winner most likely. Expect greatness here.
Texas @ Kansas - Texas needs this win in the worst way. If not, they need a long tourney run because their resume lately is lacking.
Georgetown @ Marquette - Both aren't out of the question for a 2 seed. The loser is though so some somewhat big stakes here.
Baylor @ Iowa State - Both teams safely in but should be a fun one to watch as well as have some seeding implications.
Pittsburgh @ UConn - UConn is in a freefall and it sounds like Jim Calhoun won't be back as expected to coach the Huskies. A must-win for UConn.
West Virginia @ South Florida - A bubble battle with big time eyes on it. USF could lock up a double-bye in the conference tourney. WV needs a quality win in the month of February.
Washington @ UCLA - Washington needs to just keep winning. their resume is weak but I have a feeling the Pac-12 will get at least 2 teams in and the Huskies are #2.
Cincinnati @ Villanova - This is simply the kind of loss you have to avoid. Cincy is trending up but a loss to Nova brings them down once again.
Charlotte @ Xavier - Xavier is on a bit of thin ice right now. That ice gets a lot thinner with a home loss to inferior Charlotte.
Boston College @ Miami (FL) - Simply put, a must-win for the Hurricanes. And then they still need another win in the ACC Tourney to really feel good.
Colorado State @ Air Force - Colorado State has beaten New Mexico and UNLV in the last 2 weeks, but those were at home. Gotta get this road win to keep momentum going.
Arkansas @ Mississippi State - Mississippi State is still an enigma. They stopped their 5-game losing streak. a 5-game winning streak would be great now.
Seton Hall @ DePaul - Much like Cincinnati, Seton Hall just needs to avoid a bad loss. Then, don't go one and done in the Big East tourney and they should be just fine.
Utah @ Oregon - Oregon is already barely on the bubble. A loss to Utah on the Ducks home court would burst it for sure.
Harvard @ Cornell - With a little help from Penn, Harvard could clinch its spot with a win. But if both teams win Friday and Saturday, we'll have a playoff.
Atlantic Sun Championship - Belmont is the team favored to get the automatic bid. Bruins are always a tough out in the NCAA tournament.
Big South Championship - I'm predicting that UNC-Asheville will win this tournament but wouldn't be shocked if they don't. VMI is playing well lately.
Ohio Valley Championship - This is a huge one for the BUBBLE teams because Murray State is a LOCK. If they get upset, there goes an AT-LARGE bid.

SUNDAY
Kentucky @ Florida - The Wildcats are a 1 seed in the tournament. We know that. But the top overall seed. We shall see. A win in Gainesville clinches that distinction.
Ohio State @ Michigan State - MSU could still get a 1 seed. OSU could lock up a 2 seed. Big Ten regular season title on the line too.
Arizona @ Arizona State - Zona doesn't have much to prove to the committee that they belong in. A loss at ASU would prove maybe they don't belong in the field though.
California @ Stanford - I think Cal has a good chance to get in without the automatic bid. Those chances get even better with another road conference win.
NC State @ Virginia Tech - The Wolfpack need this win badly...and then some. VT is not the kind of team that will lay down though.

So there you have it. The final weekend of the regular season is upon us and the bracket is looking more and more solid with each update. I'll soon be updating this daily so be prepared to check back here every day during Championship Week to see the latest projections. Have a great weekend!

MB