2013 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 24

In just 3 weeks, we can officially start filling out our brackets in what could be one of the craziest March Madness tournaments yet. Without any real elite teams out there, there's a very good chance a 6, 7 or even an 8 seed could make a very deep run. That also means it's even harder to rank and seed these teams because they are so equal.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: With 3 weeks to go, it's time to add some more teams that are for sure making the field. Oklahoma got a nice win over a Baylor team on the BUBBLE so they are in here now. Notre Dame jumps in with a dominating win over Cincinnati. Let's put in Saint Louis, a team that has swept Butler, beaten New Mexico and has won 9 in a row in a very good conference. And finally, Wichita State who got one more decent win to convince me that as the leaders of the Missouri Valley, they should get in no matter what happens in the conference tournament.

LOCKS (27): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Wisconsin, Butler, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Oregon, San Diego State, UNLV, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Saint Louis, Wichita State


AUTOS: Every Sunday, I'll take a look at this group a little closer to see if anything really needs to be changed. No changes made from last week though.
Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, C-USA - Memphis, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Oh Arizona State. Why when I put you in, you fall right out thanks to a loss at home to Washington. Yikes. That loss made room though for Maryland who won easily against Clemson. The Terps are barely in but hey, they are in. Other significant wins came from Saint Mary's and Villanova, who beat teams ahead of them on my S-Curve. Also, quality wins for North Carolina and Kentucky moved them up a couple spots.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (20): UCLA, Missouri, Illinois, Colorado State, Colorado, NC State, North Carolina, VCU, Iowa State, California, Kentucky, Minnesota, Saint Mary's, Creighton, Cincinnati, Temple, Villanova, Virginia, La Salle, Maryland

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: The bubble has officially burst on Ohio, who had to win at Belmont to have any hope. As for others who lost, they are still alive but not by much. Alabama's loss to LSU was just awful. Southern Miss' loss to Memphis was not bad, except that they really need a quality win. Indiana State and Boise State helped themselves out with wins to move closer to an AT-LARGE but still work to do.
These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (37): UCLA, Memphis, Missouri, Illinois, Colorado State, Colorado, NC State, North Carolina, VCU, Iowa State, California, Kentucky, Minnesota, Saint Mary's, Creighton, Akron, Cincinnati, Temple, Villanova, Virginia, La Salle, Maryland, Boise State, Indiana State, Arizona State, Arkansas, Baylor, St. John's, Belmont, Ole Miss, BYU, Louisiana Tech, Charlotte, Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee, Alabama, Southern Miss

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (5), A-10 (5), Pac-12 (5), MWC (4), SEC (3), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Indiana is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

MONDAY
Syracuse at Marquette - Syracuse could use a quality road win to get some confidence back in me and the committee to get one of those 4 seeds.

Kansas at Iowa State - Kansas still ahs a chance at a 1 seed. Iowa State would really be in good shape with a win here.
Villanova at Seton Hall - Villanova did themsleves a world of good with that win over Marquette. You would hope they would not lose any of that momentum at Seton Hall

TUESDAY
Indiana at Minnesota - A week off for both squads should have them fresh. IU is trying to keep ahold of that #1 overall seed. Minnesota hoping to move closer to LOCK territory.
Memphis at Xavier - A rare non-conference showdown in late February. Memphis has not lost since Dec. 15. Win at Xavier probably puts them firmly in the field.
Auburn at Alabama - The football game is fun. The basketball game is not. For Bama, a must-win.
WEDNESDAY
Michigan at Penn State - Michigan could grab a 1 seed still. Losing at Penn State, who has yet to win a conference game, would end all hopes though.
Georgetown at UConn - The Hoyas are hot right now. Rising from a 7 seed to a 3 seed in about 3 weeks. They can still go higher too.
San Diego State at New Mexico - Great Mountain West showdown. Both are in the tourney. Seeding could change depending on this result.
Akron at Ohio - First place in the MAC on the line as well as a long winning streak for Akron which could get some AT-LARGE consideration if they lose in the MAC tourney.
Dayton at Charlotte - Charlotte's dim hopes ride on winning this one. Dayton isn't great but good enough to help the 49ers out a bit in the RPI.
Maryland at Georgia Tech - Terps have to keep taking care of business against the bad teams. This is one of those games.
Arkansas at LSU - Arkansas better look out. LSU may have just killed Alabama's hopes. They could do the same to the Razorbacks.
Baylor at West Virginia - Baylor needs any win of any kind right now. Yes, the Big 12 is tough but WV is not.
Texas A&M at Ole Miss - The Rebels are still on the outside looking in and while this win won't get them inside, it will get them closer to the door.
Colorado at Stanford - The Buffaloes have proven to be a solid road team. Good chance to solidify their case more with a win in Palo Alto.
Saint Mary's at Pepperdine - The Gaels got their biggest win of the season on Saturday, taking down Creighton. No time for a letdown at Pepperdine.
Arizona State at UCLA - ASU is running out of time and chances for quality wins. Getting this one probably puts them back in the projected field. A loss and well, things get tough.

THURSDAY
Ohio State at Northwestern - OSU is coming off a big week of beating Minnesota and MSU. N'Western has been really bad lately so OSU needs to win by 20+ to keep people intrigued.
Gonzaga at BYU - BYU is a tough team to beat so don't chalk this one up to Gonzaga yet. But the Bulldogs are the better team and one of the best in the nation, as seen by the projected 1 seed.
Duke at Virginia - This is the game of the night. Duke hoping to keep that 1 seed. UVA hoping for a huge win to get them off the BUBBLE.
Detroit at Temple - Temple could go either way right now. Wins keep them in but losses could knock them out immediately. Just how fragile their situation is.

Next update after Thursday's games. Enjoy the games this weekend and check back Friday morning/afternoon for the latest projections and prognostications!
MB

2013 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 21

Fun 4 days of college basketball. Games like Indiana-MSU, Florida-Mizzou and Cal-Oregon went down to the wire and just gave further hope that this will be one of the best March Madness tournaments ever! Not an abundance of upsets over the 4 days but enough results to impact the movement of some teams in and out of the projected field. Should be a fun weekend of games as well as the final edition of the ESPN BracketBusters takes place.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Adding a couple Mountain West squads to this group. San Diego State gets in for consistently good play. UNLV has been a bit up and down but you can't deny their resume, which only got better with a win over Colorado State this past week.

LOCKS (23): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Wisconsin, Butler, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Oregon, San Diego State, UNLV


AUTOS: Every Sunday, I'll take a look at this group a little closer to see if anything really needs to be changed. I did make a few changes this week.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, C-USA - Memphis, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: La Salle's loss to Temple was not good for them but they're still in it. The same can't be said though for Baylor (at home vs. Iowa State) and Maryland (at BC) who lost this past week. Joining the group are Villanova and Arizona State. Not for exactly big wins but just for winning. I'm not docking Virginia for their loss at Miami (FL).

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (24): Oklahoma, Missouri, UCLA, NC State, Wichita State, Notre Dame, Colorado State, Illinois, Saint Louis, Colorado, Iowa State, VCU, Creighton, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Minnesota, California, Temple, Kentucky, Saint Mary's,Virginia, Villanova, La Salle, Arizona State

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: For now, we say goodbye Wyoming, Air Force and UMass, who all had big chances to strengthen their case, but instead lost and weakened it. We do say hello to Belmont and Middle Tennessee though. Figured they at least deserve to be in this group with their 30 or better RPI. They're not in great shape to get in via an AT-LARGE but hey, they're in the discussion.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (42): Oklahoma, Missouri, UCLA, NC State, Wichita State, Notre Dame, Colorado State, Illinois, Saint Louis, Memphis, Colorado, Iowa State, VCU, Creighton, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Minnesota, California, Temple, Kentucky, Akron, Saint Mary's,Virginia, Villanova, La Salle, Arizona State, Baylor, Arkansas, Maryland, St. John's, Boise State, Iowa, Indiana State, Alabama, Ole Miss, Charlotte, Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech, BYU, Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Ohio

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), Big 12 (5), A-10 (5), ACC (5), MWC (4), SEC (3), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Indiana is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

FRIDAY
Saint Louis at Butler - Top 2 teams in the A-10 battle it out. Forget what this means for the tourney. This is just a great game in mid-major basketball

North Dakota State at Akron - Whatever chance Akron has at making the tournament as an AT-LARGE depends on winning this game and maybe the rest on the schedule.

SATURDAY
Arkansas at Florida - The Razorbacks escaped with a win on Thursday vs. Georgia. Not impressive. A win at Florida though would really be impressive.
Georgetown at Syracuse - Two teams fighting for a spot on the 2 seed line. May not seem like a big deal but playing in Philadelphia should be and the higher seed gets that.
New Mexico at Colorado State - New Mexico leads the Mountain West but this will not be an easy victory. The Rams gave UNLV all they could handle in Sin City and will be hungry for a win.
Marquette at Villanova - Villanova is doing a nice job of avoiding the bad loss. Now time to get back to getting those big wins. Done it before. Good time to do it again.
Southern Miss at Memphis - Memphis is cruising in conference play right now. Southern Miss is lacking a quality win of any sort really so they really need this one.
VCU at Xavier - I still think VCU is in okay shape but after being throttled by Saint Louis, it'll be interesting to see how they bounce back with another road game against a decent Xavier squad.
Ohio at Belmont - The Bobcats AT-LARGE are incredibly slim but if the BUBBLE shrinks and they keep winning, any case they have gets better.
Iona at Indiana State - The Sycamores are probably out of the AT-LARGE conversation but I'll keep them alive for now. Lot of big wins...but also a lot of bad losses. Have to beat Iona here.
Clemson at Maryland - The Terps cannot afford one misstep. After beating Duke, they lose at BC by 11. That may have been the last straw for some. I'm giving them one more chance.
Alabama at LSU - The SEC is really bad. That's the reason why Alabama is not in the field. There is just no chance most weeks for a quality win. But there are bad losses and this would qualify.
NC State at North Carolina - Both are somewhat safe and neither is out of the field with a loss. But a win over the other really solidifies the resume.
Detroit at Wichita State - The Shockers may have done enough already but just to make sure, they should beat Detroit and ease any worries.
Auburn at Ole Miss - The Rebels have a cause (making the tourney) but they play like they don't. Lost a bad one to South Carolina and now, really in trouble. A must-win at home here.
Baylor at Oklahoma - Baylor showed plenty of fight at home vs. Iowa State. But they need to start winning now. Oklahoma is a solid team so won't be easy.
California at Oregon State- Cal is doing everything right in terms of getting in the field. Losing in Corvallis should not be an option for this hot squad right now.
Creighton at Saint Mary's - Creighton is starting to save their season having some midseason bumps. Saint Mary's lost a big one to Gonzaga at home already. Not sure they can survive without winning this one.
Missouri at Kentucky - Kentucky won their first game with Nerlens Noel this week. But Mizzou is a tougher test. Tigers coming off a great win over Florida.
Washington at Arizona State - Arizona State is such an enigma. There's no mystery though to whether or not they need to win this game.
Iowa at Nebraska - There's a chance still Iowa can get in. They have some big games down the pike. This is not one of them but lose it, and well, not good.

SUNDAY
Michigan State at Ohio State - OSU got back on track with an easy win over Minnesota. MSU lost at home to Indiana. Should make for fun times in Columbus.
Illinois at Michigan - Michigan has somewhat struggled and could lose this one too. If so, Illinois will LOCK up their spot. Illini have won 5 in a row.
Pittsburgh at St. John's - Pittsburgh is in the field but fighting for a better seed. St. John's is not in the field but with this win and maybe another, they will find their way in.
Cincinnati at Notre Dame - The Bearcats have not looked like a tourney team lately despite the resume. Notre Dame can add to their misery with a quality home win.
La Salle at Rhode Island - La Salle is in a bit of trouble now with that loss at Temple. Rhode Island is no pushover but also not good so time for La Salle to show some grit.
Georgia Tech at Virginia - Virginia gave Miami (FL) all they could handle down in South Beach. Alas, it was a loss and now, the Cavs must get back to winning.
Temple at Charlotte - I still think Charlotte has a chance of getting in the field but it will take some big in-conference wins. This is one of them.

Next update after Sunday's games. Enjoy the games this weekend and check back Monday morning/afternoon for the latest projections and prognostications!


MB

2013 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 17

Just 4 weeks now until the brackets are revealed! I love doing this but I also wouldn't mind getting my night back. This has been a tough season for this as teams are more even than ever before. I was just talking with people that this may be the year a 6, 7, or 8 seed could win the tournament. That's how wide open it is, Should make for a fun March.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: With each post, I'm likely going to add another team, especially if they avoid a big loss. In this case, I'm adding Oregon. After a 3-game losing skid, they rebounded with a 3-game win streak. And mroe impressive than their 21-5 record I think is their 6-3 record away from Eugene. They also have avoided a really bad loss. So congrats to the Ducks.

LOCKS (21): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Wisconsin, Butler, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Oregon


AUTOS: Every Sunday, I'll take a look at this group a little closer to see if anything really needs to be changed. I did make a few changes this week.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Maryland's big win vs. Duke has them in this category but BARELY. They are my last team in the field. They replace Indiana State, who lost ANOTHER terrible game, this time at Bradley. The Syacmores have some great wins but until they cure their bad losses problem, they will not be in this category.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (27): Oklahoma, San Diego State, UCLA, Cincinnati, Missouri, NC State, UNLV, VCU, Colorado State, Notre Dame, Wichita State, Illinois, Creighton, Minnesota, Memphis, Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa State, Temple, Saint Louis, La Salle, California, Saint Mary's, Virginia, Kentucky, Baylor, Maryland

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE:This group is ever-changing. Not so much the names of the teams but the position of the teams. As we get closer, getting big wins like Maryland's over Duke will do wonders. I know the committee always says they look at the whole body of work and don not make snap judgements but I like to think they love to see a team playing its best at the end. And that means avoiding bad losses and getting wins in February they could get in December.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (45): Oklahoma, San Diego State, UCLA, Cincinnati, Missouri, NC State, UNLV, VCU, Colorado State, Notre Dame, Wichita State, Illinois, Creighton, Minnesota, Memphis, Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa State, Temple, Saint Louis, La Salle, California, Saint Mary's, Virginia, Kentucky, Baylor, Maryland, Villanova, Indiana State, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Arkansas, St. John's, Boise State, Iowa, Charlotte, Alabama, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, BYU, Wyoming, Air Force, Ohio, UMass

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (7), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), A-10 (5), Pac-12 (5), MWC (4), SEC (3), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Indiana is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

MONDAY
West Virginia at Kansas State - Kansas State is obviously in the tourney. I think their ceiling is a 2 seed. Win here keeps it that way.
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh - I think an Irish win may be enough to make them a LOCK. Pitt could use this win just to improve seeding.
Rutgers at Villanova - Would not be a quality win for the Wildcats but it would be a bad loss, especially at home.

TUESDAY
Indiana at Michigan State - Love this matchup. Both are 1 seeds. Both are tied for the top of the Big Ten. Make sure you;re watching this one...and on mute. Dick Vitale on the call with Magic Johnson.

Virginia at Miami (FL) - The Hurricanes survived a scare at Clemson. Now, they are home, taking on a Virginia team craving a big win to solidify their standing.

Florida at Missouri - Florida sill has an outside chance at a 1 seed. Need some help though. Missouri locks up their spot with a win over the Gators.

Wichita State at Indiana State - Would not shock me one bit to see the Sycamore beat the Shockers. But if they don't, those AT-LARGE chances start to really get slim.

Maryland at Boston College - Could be a letdown game for the Terps. BC played Duke tough at home. Expect the same here.

VCU at Saint Louis - Don't hear much about Saint Louis but they are a solid team that really helps its case with a win at home vs. VCU. Rams may be able to lock up their spot with this road win.

Wyoming at San Diego State - Whatever chance Wyoming has to get in includes a win here. Will not come easy by any means though. SDSU probably one win away from being a LOCK.

WEDNESDAY
Minnesota at Ohio State - Both teams lost soundly on Sunday. Both teams need to bounce back in what is a brutal Big Ten.

Washington at Arizona - Arizona still could be a 1 seed. Just can't lose anymore game at homes against inferior foes.

Kansas at Oklahoma State - OKST has been rocketing up the bracket and for good reason. It all started with their upset win in Lawrence. Pretty sure Kansas is out for revenge.

Colorado State at UNLV - Mountain West seems to have an enticing matchup every week. This is that matchup this week. Both teams in good shape to get in.

Ole Miss at South Carolina - A must-win for Ole Miss. Will do them no good but a loss will do nothing but bad.

Air Force at Boise State - Two Mountain West squads on the outside looking in. One of thsoe elimination games possibly?

Iowa State at Baylor - Baylor's resume could really use a quality win. Beating the Cyclones would qualify, even if it's in Waco.

 

THURSDAY

California at Oregon - Good game here between two teams that have found their stride. Oregon in not unbeatable in Eugene so would not be surprised one bit to see Cal compete or even win.

Cincinnati at UConn - UConn doesn't play like a team ineligible for postseason play. Cincinnati could use a good win to get some confidence back.

La Salle at Temple - Definitely got my eyes on this one. Teams are very similar in resume. Game may be at Temple but both teams are in Philly so might as well be neutral site. Huge stakes.

BYU at Saint Mary's - Saint Mary's loss to Gonzaga leaves them with a very little margin of error. BYU is solid so beating them keeps them in the field. A loss may not.

Next update after Thurday's games.I already can't wait.


MB

2013 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 14

Unlike this time last week, college basketball has been a bit more stable. That doesn't mean it still hasn't been fun to watch. Starting to notice a lot of teams that were shaky have settled down while others who were looked to be on firm foundation are now falling fast. With 4 weeks left, there's a lot to play for, especially before the conference tournaments begin, when officially all hell breaks loose.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I feel good now about adding Oklahoma State and Georgetown. The Hoyas have gone 8-1 in their last 9 and against some quality competition. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is riding a 6-game win streak that includes wins over 3 teams in my projected field.

LOCKS (20): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Wisconsin, Butler, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Georgetown



AUTOS: Every Sunday, I'll take a look at this group a little closer to see if anything really needs to be changed.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Bryant, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Only one new team in the fold but a deserving one in California that put a hurting on UCLA. Ole Miss dropped out after another bad loss. Rebels are in real trouble now of missing the field.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (28): Oregon, Missouri, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Notre Dame, Wichita State, Oklahoma, NC State, UCLA, VCU, UNLV, Colorado State, Creighton, Memphis, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa State, Baylor, Illinois, Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, Temple, Indiana State, La Salle, Saint Mary's, Saint Louis, California

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Yet again, we lost a team from our BUBBLE. That team was Richmond. Still a lot of teams who need to start winning or keep winning if they want to get on more solid footing. Remember, once the conference tournaments begin, some of those AT-LARGE spots will dry up as upsets occur so getting off the BUBBLE is important.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (47): Oregon, Missouri, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Notre Dame, Wichita State, Oklahoma, NC State, UCLA, VCU, UNLV, Colorado State, Creighton, Memphis, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa State, Baylor, Illinois, Kentucky, North Carolina, Akron, Virginia, Temple, Indiana State, La Salle, Saint Mary's, Saint Louis, California, Ole Miss, Boise State, Maryland, Alabama, Charlotte, St. John's, Arizona State, Villanova, UMass, Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Air Force, Arkansas, Southern Miss, BYU, Iowa, Wyoming, Stanford

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), A-10 (5), Pac-12 (5), MWC (4), MVC (3), SEC (3), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Indiana is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

FRIDAY
Georgetown at Cincinnati - The Hoyas are making a march to a top 4 seed. Cincinnati was in that conversation. They can get back in it with a win.

SATURDAY
Duke at Maryland - Duke is playing for a 1 seed so every win is nice. But this one is about the Terps, who need big wins just to get a seed in the tourney.
Baylor at Kansas State - K-State is the tourney no matter what. Baylor is somewhat safe but a quality road win like this silences some critics.
Pittsburgh at Marquette - I think both teams are firmly in. That doesn't mean it's not a big game, especially when you consider how it could impact seeding.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State - It's a big game because it's a rivalry. But it's also a big game because Oklahoma could probably lock up its spot with a victory.
Boise State at New Mexico - Look out for the Broncos, who are making a charge to get into the field. They are more than capable of pulling off this upset.
Colorado State at Air Force - Colorado State is trending upwards and will be a LOCK very soon. Air Force needs this to keep the positive momentum going in their case for the field.
Kentucky at Tennessee - Time to find out how UK responds without Nerlens Noel. If they respond well, they'll be fine. If not, their spot in the field is in real jeopardy.
Kent State at Ohio - If the Bobcats have any chance stay in the BUBBLE, they have to run the table until the MAC tourney.
Villanova at UConn - Villanova needs to do a lot after their loss to Cincy. Beating a very good UConn team will help.
Virginia at North Carolina - The Cavaliers are a curious case but one that is in my field as of now. North Carolina is also in right now so good game between a couple AT-LARGE teams.
Saint Joseph's at La Salle - Saint Joseph's is a good team. Just not good enough for the tourney. But La Salle I think is so getting a win here will confirm my belief.
TCU at Iowa State - We already know TCU can be a giant killer. Well, the Cyclones are not a giant but they are a team in need of a win after losing in 2OT at Texas.
Indiana State at Bradley - ISU is driving me crazy. They beat the best in the Missouri Valley but then fall to Missouri State. They need to win this game but I wouldn't be shocked if they didn't.
Virginia Tech at NC State - NC State has been free-falling and could really use a win to stop it. The one-time ACC favorites need to start playing like it again.
Creighton at Evansville - The Blue Jays were on track for a 3 or 4 seed. Now they are playing for something around a 7 or 8. That's what a 3-game losing streak will do to you.
Missouri at Arkansas - Mizzou is back to playing great basketball. Arkansas is as well but have more work to do in order to crack the 68.
UCLA at Stanford - UCLA is somewhat safely in despite being stomped by Cal. Stanford needs this win to keep the positive momentum.
South Carolina at Alabama - Simply put, a game Alabama cannot afford to lose.
Fresno State at Wyoming - See above. Replace Alabama with Wyoming.
Temple at UMass - Temple may think they are in good shape but I'm not so sure. UMass is starting to make a strong case themselves. Big game.
Charlotte at Saint Louis - That Charlotte win over Butler was huge. Saint Louis has been steady but not stellar. Both teams firmly on the BUBBLE.
Georgia at Ole Miss - Oh Rebels. 18-6 record but boy is that deceiving. Another bad loss like one here to Georgia and things really get ugly.
Arizona State at Colorado - Herb Sendek probably has a tourney-worthy team but they don't play like it at all times. They need to against Colorado, who also is fighting for a spot in the field.
San Diego State at UNLV - Both teams coming off losses. SDSU to Colorado State. UNLV to Air Force. Both are somewhat safely in but winner boosts the resume.

SUNDAY
Ohio State at Wisconsin - Both teams are gonna be in the dance. Wisconsin would love to defend homecourt and get another quality win. Buckeyes would love a 3 seed and play close to home in Dayton.
Miami (FL) at Clemson - You know how some teams get to the top and then lose a bad one? Looking at you Miami (FL). Don't do it.
Minnesota at Iowa - The Gophers win vs. Wisconsin was much needed and puts them in good shape. For Iowa, this is a must-have as they try and make a late push.
Illinois at Northwestern - The Illini are playing great basketball again and at the exact right time. Winning at Northwestern is never easy though.
Wichita State at Illinois State - I really want to put them in LOCK territory but they keep making it hard. This would be a pretty good road win.

Next update after Sunday's games. It's starting to get real now as we move to within a month of Selection Sunday. Keep it here for all the latest. 


MB

2013 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 10

We're now 5 weeks away until Selection Sunday and I'm already noticing just how tough picking and seeding this year's field is going to be. For one, just look at this past weekend as solid teams lost bad games (some at home) and other teams that I had left for dead rose from the ashes. With a meaningful upset nearly every night, it's hard getting a real read for who these teams are. But this is a process so it's important not to react too much or too little to any one game.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I said after the last post that I would add to this list substantially. Well, I am a man of my word. 6 new teams in the group and for good reason. They have played great basketball this season and have shown no signs of falling apart as we near Selection Sunday. Hopefully none of them make me regret putting them in this group because I've never taken anyone out of this group in my 5 years.

LOCKS (18): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Wisconsin, Butler, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Marquette



AUTOS: Every Sunday, I'll take a look at this group a little closer to see if anything really needs to be changed. I did find a few and have made those changes.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Bryant, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Maybe the biggest change here is that the number of teams getting AT-LARGE bid are down from 36 to 30 as 6 teams graduated to LOCK status. This number will continue to shrink as more teams secure their spot in the field. Only new teams in the field are Virginia (who beat former AT-LARGE member Maryland on their home floor) and Saint Louis, who replaces Arizona State.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (30): Oklahoma State, Oregon, San Diego State, UCLA, Missouri, Georgetown, UNLV, Cincinnati, Creighton, Notre Dame, Wichita State, NC State, Oklahoma, VCU, Iowa State, Memphis, Kentucky, Colorado State, Baylor, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, North Carolina, Temple, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Ole Miss, Virginia, La Salle, Saint Louis

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE:Obviously, some movement here. But nothing too drastic after the weekend's games. The BUBBLE continues to shrink in size though as teams like UTEP, Florida State, Texas A&M, and Washington lost, taking them out of consideration for now. There's plenty of time to rejoin the discussion but for now, they're out.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (49): Oklahoma State, Oregon, San Diego State, UCLA, Missouri, Georgetown, UNLV, Cincinnati, Creighton, Notre Dame, Wichita State, NC State, Oklahoma, VCU, Iowa State, Memphis, Kentucky, Colorado State, Baylor, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, North Carolina, Temple, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Ole Miss, Virginia, La Salle, Saint Louis, Arizona State, Maryland, Alabama, Villanova, Boise State, St. John's, UMass, Charlotte, Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Stanford, Richmond, BYU, Southern Miss, Arkansas, Wyoming, California, Iowa

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), A-10 (5), Pac-12 (4), SEC (4), MWC (4), MVC (3), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Indiana is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday's games.

MB

2013 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 7

What a week of college basketball so far. Ohio State-Michigan. Kansas-TCU. Indiana-Illinois. Washington-UCLA. Last night alone, I saw 4 games that were decided in the final 20 seconds. It's called March Madness, not February Madness! All these fantastic finishes and upsets have made for long nights for this resident bracketologist. But this is what I signed up for.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Not adding any teams to this list just yet. I'll probably add 3-4 teams, maybe more after this weekend. I know there are more than 12 teams that are securely but again, I don't want to take teams out if I don't have to. Again, expect this group to grow somewhat substantially by the next post.

LOCKS (12): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL)



AUTOS: Not one change in this group.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern , Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Bryant, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Lots of moving around in this category as you might expect. A lot of teams lost while others got some big wins. Teams like Colorado, Illinois and Indiana State all beat ranked teams to help their cause. For Illinois and Indiana State, their wins propelled them from BUBBLE status to AT-LARGE status. Bad loss though by Alabama knocks them out.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (36): New Mexico, Butler, Kansas State, Marquette, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Creighton, Oregon, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Wichita State, UCLA, Iowa State, NC State, Minnesota, Missouri, Georgetown, VCU, UNLV, Kentucky, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Colorado State, Memphis, Baylor, Oklahoma, Colorado, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Illinois, Temple, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Maryland, La Salle

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: A lot of movement up and down among this group. Have to mention that over these 4 days, I found myself overvaluing and undervaluing certain teams. For instance, I took Saint Louis out of the 68-team field (despite winning handily on Wednesday) after looking at their resume closer. I added St. John's to the BUBBLE (and fairly close to getting in) after examining them closer. It's all part of the process. The changes will not normally be that drastic but in this case, it had to be done.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (58): New Mexico, Butler, Kansas State, Marquette, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Creighton, Oregon, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Wichita State, UCLA, Iowa State, NC State, Minnesota, Missouri, Georgetown, VCU, UNLV, Kentucky, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Colorado State, Memphis, Baylor, Oklahoma, Colorado, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Illinois, Temple, Akron, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Maryland, La Salle, Saint Louis, Virginia, St. John's, BYU, Alabama, Villanova, Charlotte, Louisiana Tech, Richmond, Arkansas, Southern Miss, Boise State, Ohio, Northwestern, Washington, Wyoming, Stanford, Florida State, UTEP, UMass, Texas A&M

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), Pac-12 (5), A-10 (4), SEC (4), MWC (4), MVC (3), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Michigan is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday's games.

MB

2013 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 3

The Super Bowl is over. The NBA is barely past the halfway point. The NHL just got going. Seems like the perfect time to start focusing on another great year of Barnes Bracketology! I cannot believe that this is my fifth year doing this. What started as just a fun exercise to see if I was better than Lunardi turned into a full-on obsession with predicting the entire 68-team field.

If you are new to my Bracketology posts, here are my rules. Once I start, I do not look at any prominent Bracketology websites, such as ESPN or CBS Sports. I say prominent because I have friends who try and predict the field as well. I will read those so that way, I can get into some friendly banter with them during the process. But that's it.

I will update this blog every Sunday and Thursday in February. As we near Selection Sunday, the updates will become more frequent. I try to break it all down for you so you know exactly where I stand. I also make sure I follow every rule that the NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee does.

Now this is the earliest I've ever started this and trust me, I will never start earlier than this. So expect a lot of movement as I try to get a real feel for these teams and where they should be seeded.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: This category is for those teams are getting into the NCAA tournament, even if they do not win their conference tournament. Obviously, this is the group every team wants to be in. The group will look small now because I do not like to put someone in this group and then take them out. But as the weeks go on, teams will be added slowly but surely to give you a clearer picture of teams that are not on the bubble come Selection Sunday.

LOCKS (12): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL)



AUTOS: This group is all about teams that need automatic bids to get into the NCAA tournament. For all conferences besides the Ivy League, that means winning the conference tournament. Those tournaments are still weeks away though so for now, these are just educated guesses on who will ultimately win those tournaments. You will see a fair amount of change here, especially since I don't follow these small conferences.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern , Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Bryant, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: This group is for the teams that will have to qualify for the tournament as an AT-LARGE but are not good enough to be a LOCK for the tournament field yet. These are in order in how I see the teams right now but this will fluctuate a ton as I get a better feel for these teams. It will nto change as much as we get closer. And don't forget. the last 4 teams in this group will be part of the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (36): New Mexico, Butler, Cincinnati, Kansas State, NC State, Marquette, Creighton, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Missouri, UCLA, Orgeon, UNLV, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, San Diego State, Iowa State, Notre Dame, VCU, Oklahoma, Kentucky, North Carolina, Baylor, Colorado State, Memphis, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's, Temple, Colorado, La Salle, Maryland, Alabama

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Pretty self-explanatory group here. If you're not a LOCK, you are on the bubble because at any time, it could pop. Now, you will notice some AUTOS are in this group. That just means they are playing well enough that if they do not win their conference tournament, they have a chance to get in as an AT-LARGE. And you will notice that all of the AT-LARGE are in this group and in order. By seeing the last team in the AT-LARGE group and the first team after that, you'll know who is the first team out, and so on.

Again, this group will change an awful lot, especially these next 2 weeks, so don't read TOO much into them.

BUBBLE (56): New Mexico, Butler, Cincinnati, Kansas State, NC State, Marquette, Creighton, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Missouri, UCLA, Orgeon, UNLV, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, San Diego State, Iowa State, Notre Dame, VCU, Oklahoma, Kentucky, North Carolina, Baylor, Colorado State, Memphis, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's, Temple, Colorado, La Salle, Maryland, Alabama, Illinois, BYU, Akron, Villanova, Charlotte, Indiana State, Washington, Virginia, Southern Miss, Boise State, Ohio Richmond, Stanford, Rutgers, Iowa, Wyoming, Northeastern, California, UTEP, Florida State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (6), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), A-10 (5), SEC (5), MWC (4), Pac-12 (4), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Indiana is the overall top seed

And that's all she wrote. Here are my goals for my final bracket on Selection Sunday:

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region
2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots
3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct
4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup

Normally, I'll post the games of the week here but not this time. Too many teams in the mix right now.

MB