Fun 4 days of college basketball. Games like Indiana-MSU, Florida-Mizzou and Cal-Oregon went down to the wire and just gave further hope that this will be one of the best March Madness tournaments ever! Not an abundance of upsets over the 4 days but enough results to impact the movement of some teams in and out of the projected field. Should be a fun weekend of games as well as the final edition of the ESPN BracketBusters takes place.
MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)
LOCKS: Adding a couple Mountain West squads to this group. San Diego State gets in for consistently good play. UNLV has been a bit up and down but you can't deny their resume, which only got better with a win over Colorado State this past week.
LOCKS (23): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Wisconsin, Butler, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Oregon, San Diego State, UNLV
AUTOS: Every Sunday, I'll take a look at this group a little closer to see if anything really needs to be changed. I did make a few changes this week.
Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold
AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, C-USA - Memphis, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech
AT-LARGE: La Salle's loss to Temple was not good for them but they're still in it. The same can't be said though for Baylor (at home vs. Iowa State) and Maryland (at BC) who lost this past week. Joining the group are Villanova and Arizona State. Not for exactly big wins but just for winning. I'm not docking Virginia for their loss at Miami (FL).
These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton
These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton
AT-LARGE (24): Oklahoma, Missouri, UCLA, NC State, Wichita State, Notre Dame, Colorado State, Illinois, Saint Louis, Colorado, Iowa State, VCU, Creighton, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Minnesota, California, Temple, Kentucky, Saint Mary's,Virginia, Villanova, La Salle, Arizona State
BUBBLE WATCH
BUBBLE: For now, we say goodbye Wyoming, Air Force and UMass, who all had big chances to strengthen their case, but instead lost and weakened it. We do say hello to Belmont and Middle Tennessee though. Figured they at least deserve to be in this group with their 30 or better RPI. They're not in great shape to get in via an AT-LARGE but hey, they're in the discussion.
These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.
BUBBLE (42): Oklahoma, Missouri, UCLA, NC State, Wichita State, Notre Dame, Colorado
State, Illinois, Saint Louis, Memphis, Colorado, Iowa State, VCU, Creighton,
Cincinnati, North Carolina, Minnesota, California, Temple, Kentucky,
Akron, Saint Mary's,Virginia, Villanova, La Salle, Arizona State, Baylor, Arkansas, Maryland, St. John's, Boise State, Iowa, Indiana State, Alabama, Ole Miss, Charlotte, Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech, BYU, Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Ohio
These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.
BUBBLE (42): Oklahoma, Missouri, UCLA, NC State, Wichita State, Notre Dame, Colorado
State, Illinois, Saint Louis, Memphis, Colorado, Iowa State, VCU, Creighton,
Cincinnati, North Carolina, Minnesota, California, Temple, Kentucky,
Akron, Saint Mary's,Virginia, Villanova, La Salle, Arizona State, Baylor, Arkansas, Maryland, St. John's, Boise State, Iowa, Indiana State, Alabama, Ole Miss, Charlotte, Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech, BYU, Belmont, Middle Tennessee, Ohio
SEEDING
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), Big 12 (5), A-10 (5), ACC (5), MWC (4), SEC (3), MVC (2), WCC (2)
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), Big 12 (5), A-10 (5), ACC (5), MWC (4), SEC (3), MVC (2), WCC (2)
(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH
FRIDAY
Saint Louis at Butler - Top 2 teams in the A-10 battle it out. Forget what this means for the tourney. This is just a great game in mid-major basketball
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH
**Indiana is the overall top seed
GAMES TO WATCH
FRIDAY
Saint Louis at Butler - Top 2 teams in the A-10 battle it out. Forget what this means for the tourney. This is just a great game in mid-major basketball
North Dakota State at Akron - Whatever chance Akron has at making the tournament as an AT-LARGE depends on winning this game and maybe the rest on the schedule.
SATURDAY
Arkansas at Florida - The Razorbacks escaped with a win on Thursday vs. Georgia. Not impressive. A win at Florida though would really be impressive.
Georgetown at Syracuse - Two teams fighting for a spot on the 2 seed line. May not seem like a big deal but playing in Philadelphia should be and the higher seed gets that.
New Mexico at Colorado State - New Mexico leads the Mountain West but this will not be an easy victory. The Rams gave UNLV all they could handle in Sin City and will be hungry for a win.
Marquette at Villanova - Villanova is doing a nice job of avoiding the bad loss. Now time to get back to getting those big wins. Done it before. Good time to do it again.
Southern Miss at Memphis - Memphis is cruising in conference play right now. Southern Miss is lacking a quality win of any sort really so they really need this one.
VCU at Xavier - I still think VCU is in okay shape but after being throttled by Saint Louis, it'll be interesting to see how they bounce back with another road game against a decent Xavier squad.
Ohio at Belmont - The Bobcats AT-LARGE are incredibly slim but if the BUBBLE shrinks and they keep winning, any case they have gets better.
Iona at Indiana State - The Sycamores are probably out of the AT-LARGE conversation but I'll keep them alive for now. Lot of big wins...but also a lot of bad losses. Have to beat Iona here.
Clemson at Maryland - The Terps cannot afford one misstep. After beating Duke, they lose at BC by 11. That may have been the last straw for some. I'm giving them one more chance.
Alabama at LSU - The SEC is really bad. That's the reason why Alabama is not in the field. There is just no chance most weeks for a quality win. But there are bad losses and this would qualify.
NC State at North Carolina - Both are somewhat safe and neither is out of the field with a loss. But a win over the other really solidifies the resume.
Detroit at Wichita State - The Shockers may have done enough already but just to make sure, they should beat Detroit and ease any worries.
Auburn at Ole Miss - The Rebels have a cause (making the tourney) but they play like they don't. Lost a bad one to South Carolina and now, really in trouble. A must-win at home here.
Baylor at Oklahoma - Baylor showed plenty of fight at home vs. Iowa State. But they need to start winning now. Oklahoma is a solid team so won't be easy.
California at Oregon State- Cal is doing everything right in terms of getting in the field. Losing in Corvallis should not be an option for this hot squad right now.
Creighton at Saint Mary's - Creighton is starting to save their season having some midseason bumps. Saint Mary's lost a big one to Gonzaga at home already. Not sure they can survive without winning this one.
Missouri at Kentucky - Kentucky won their first game with Nerlens Noel this week. But Mizzou is a tougher test. Tigers coming off a great win over Florida.
Washington at Arizona State - Arizona State is such an enigma. There's no mystery though to whether or not they need to win this game.
Iowa at Nebraska - There's a chance still Iowa can get in. They have some big games down the pike. This is not one of them but lose it, and well, not good.
SUNDAY
Michigan State at Ohio State - OSU got back on track with an easy win over Minnesota. MSU lost at home to Indiana. Should make for fun times in Columbus.
Illinois at Michigan - Michigan has somewhat struggled and could lose this one too. If so, Illinois will LOCK up their spot. Illini have won 5 in a row.
Pittsburgh at St. John's - Pittsburgh is in the field but fighting for a better seed. St. John's is not in the field but with this win and maybe another, they will find their way in.
Cincinnati at Notre Dame - The Bearcats have not looked like a tourney team lately despite the resume. Notre Dame can add to their misery with a quality home win.
La Salle at Rhode Island - La Salle is in a bit of trouble now with that loss at Temple. Rhode Island is no pushover but also not good so time for La Salle to show some grit.
Georgia Tech at Virginia - Virginia gave Miami (FL) all they could handle down in South Beach. Alas, it was a loss and now, the Cavs must get back to winning.
Temple at Charlotte - I still think Charlotte has a chance of getting in the field but it will take some big in-conference wins. This is one of them.
Next update after Sunday's games. Enjoy the games this weekend and check back Monday morning/afternoon for the latest projections and prognostications!
MB
SATURDAY
Arkansas at Florida - The Razorbacks escaped with a win on Thursday vs. Georgia. Not impressive. A win at Florida though would really be impressive.
Georgetown at Syracuse - Two teams fighting for a spot on the 2 seed line. May not seem like a big deal but playing in Philadelphia should be and the higher seed gets that.
New Mexico at Colorado State - New Mexico leads the Mountain West but this will not be an easy victory. The Rams gave UNLV all they could handle in Sin City and will be hungry for a win.
Marquette at Villanova - Villanova is doing a nice job of avoiding the bad loss. Now time to get back to getting those big wins. Done it before. Good time to do it again.
Southern Miss at Memphis - Memphis is cruising in conference play right now. Southern Miss is lacking a quality win of any sort really so they really need this one.
VCU at Xavier - I still think VCU is in okay shape but after being throttled by Saint Louis, it'll be interesting to see how they bounce back with another road game against a decent Xavier squad.
Ohio at Belmont - The Bobcats AT-LARGE are incredibly slim but if the BUBBLE shrinks and they keep winning, any case they have gets better.
Iona at Indiana State - The Sycamores are probably out of the AT-LARGE conversation but I'll keep them alive for now. Lot of big wins...but also a lot of bad losses. Have to beat Iona here.
Clemson at Maryland - The Terps cannot afford one misstep. After beating Duke, they lose at BC by 11. That may have been the last straw for some. I'm giving them one more chance.
Alabama at LSU - The SEC is really bad. That's the reason why Alabama is not in the field. There is just no chance most weeks for a quality win. But there are bad losses and this would qualify.
NC State at North Carolina - Both are somewhat safe and neither is out of the field with a loss. But a win over the other really solidifies the resume.
Detroit at Wichita State - The Shockers may have done enough already but just to make sure, they should beat Detroit and ease any worries.
Auburn at Ole Miss - The Rebels have a cause (making the tourney) but they play like they don't. Lost a bad one to South Carolina and now, really in trouble. A must-win at home here.
Baylor at Oklahoma - Baylor showed plenty of fight at home vs. Iowa State. But they need to start winning now. Oklahoma is a solid team so won't be easy.
California at Oregon State- Cal is doing everything right in terms of getting in the field. Losing in Corvallis should not be an option for this hot squad right now.
Creighton at Saint Mary's - Creighton is starting to save their season having some midseason bumps. Saint Mary's lost a big one to Gonzaga at home already. Not sure they can survive without winning this one.
Missouri at Kentucky - Kentucky won their first game with Nerlens Noel this week. But Mizzou is a tougher test. Tigers coming off a great win over Florida.
Washington at Arizona State - Arizona State is such an enigma. There's no mystery though to whether or not they need to win this game.
Iowa at Nebraska - There's a chance still Iowa can get in. They have some big games down the pike. This is not one of them but lose it, and well, not good.
SUNDAY
Michigan State at Ohio State - OSU got back on track with an easy win over Minnesota. MSU lost at home to Indiana. Should make for fun times in Columbus.
Illinois at Michigan - Michigan has somewhat struggled and could lose this one too. If so, Illinois will LOCK up their spot. Illini have won 5 in a row.
Pittsburgh at St. John's - Pittsburgh is in the field but fighting for a better seed. St. John's is not in the field but with this win and maybe another, they will find their way in.
Cincinnati at Notre Dame - The Bearcats have not looked like a tourney team lately despite the resume. Notre Dame can add to their misery with a quality home win.
La Salle at Rhode Island - La Salle is in a bit of trouble now with that loss at Temple. Rhode Island is no pushover but also not good so time for La Salle to show some grit.
Georgia Tech at Virginia - Virginia gave Miami (FL) all they could handle down in South Beach. Alas, it was a loss and now, the Cavs must get back to winning.
Temple at Charlotte - I still think Charlotte has a chance of getting in the field but it will take some big in-conference wins. This is one of them.
Next update after Sunday's games. Enjoy the games this weekend and check back Monday morning/afternoon for the latest projections and prognostications!
MB
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Colorado State with 27-or-so home court win streak. UNM will have TOUGH time winning there
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