2013 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 10

We're now 5 weeks away until Selection Sunday and I'm already noticing just how tough picking and seeding this year's field is going to be. For one, just look at this past weekend as solid teams lost bad games (some at home) and other teams that I had left for dead rose from the ashes. With a meaningful upset nearly every night, it's hard getting a real read for who these teams are. But this is a process so it's important not to react too much or too little to any one game.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I said after the last post that I would add to this list substantially. Well, I am a man of my word. 6 new teams in the group and for good reason. They have played great basketball this season and have shown no signs of falling apart as we near Selection Sunday. Hopefully none of them make me regret putting them in this group because I've never taken anyone out of this group in my 5 years.

LOCKS (18): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Wisconsin, Butler, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Marquette



AUTOS: Every Sunday, I'll take a look at this group a little closer to see if anything really needs to be changed. I did find a few and have made those changes.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Bryant, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Maybe the biggest change here is that the number of teams getting AT-LARGE bid are down from 36 to 30 as 6 teams graduated to LOCK status. This number will continue to shrink as more teams secure their spot in the field. Only new teams in the field are Virginia (who beat former AT-LARGE member Maryland on their home floor) and Saint Louis, who replaces Arizona State.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (30): Oklahoma State, Oregon, San Diego State, UCLA, Missouri, Georgetown, UNLV, Cincinnati, Creighton, Notre Dame, Wichita State, NC State, Oklahoma, VCU, Iowa State, Memphis, Kentucky, Colorado State, Baylor, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, North Carolina, Temple, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Ole Miss, Virginia, La Salle, Saint Louis

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE:Obviously, some movement here. But nothing too drastic after the weekend's games. The BUBBLE continues to shrink in size though as teams like UTEP, Florida State, Texas A&M, and Washington lost, taking them out of consideration for now. There's plenty of time to rejoin the discussion but for now, they're out.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (49): Oklahoma State, Oregon, San Diego State, UCLA, Missouri, Georgetown, UNLV, Cincinnati, Creighton, Notre Dame, Wichita State, NC State, Oklahoma, VCU, Iowa State, Memphis, Kentucky, Colorado State, Baylor, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, North Carolina, Temple, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Ole Miss, Virginia, La Salle, Saint Louis, Arizona State, Maryland, Alabama, Villanova, Boise State, St. John's, UMass, Charlotte, Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Stanford, Richmond, BYU, Southern Miss, Arkansas, Wyoming, California, Iowa

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), A-10 (5), Pac-12 (4), SEC (4), MWC (4), MVC (3), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Indiana is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday's games.

MB