Unlike this time last week, college basketball has been a bit more stable. That doesn't mean it still hasn't been fun to watch. Starting to notice a lot of teams that were shaky have settled down while others who were looked to be on firm foundation are now falling fast. With 4 weeks left, there's a lot to play for, especially before the conference tournaments begin, when officially all hell breaks loose.
MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)
LOCKS: I feel good now about adding Oklahoma State and Georgetown. The Hoyas have gone 8-1 in their last 9 and against some quality competition. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is riding a 6-game win streak that includes wins over 3 teams in my projected field.
LOCKS (20): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Wisconsin, Butler, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Georgetown
AUTOS: Every Sunday, I'll take a look at this group a little closer to see if anything really needs to be changed.
Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold
AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Bryant, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech
AT-LARGE: Only one new team in the fold but a deserving one in California that put a hurting on UCLA. Ole Miss dropped out after another bad loss. Rebels are in real trouble now of missing the field.
These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton
These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton
AT-LARGE (28): Oregon, Missouri, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Notre Dame, Wichita State, Oklahoma, NC State, UCLA, VCU, UNLV, Colorado State, Creighton, Memphis, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa State, Baylor, Illinois, Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, Temple, Indiana State, La Salle, Saint Mary's, Saint Louis, California
BUBBLE WATCH
BUBBLE: Yet again, we lost a team from our BUBBLE. That team was Richmond. Still a lot of teams who need to start winning or keep winning if they want to get on more solid footing. Remember, once the conference tournaments begin, some of those AT-LARGE spots will dry up as upsets occur so getting off the BUBBLE is important.
These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.
BUBBLE (47): Oregon, Missouri, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Notre Dame, Wichita
State, Oklahoma, NC State, UCLA, VCU, UNLV, Colorado State, Creighton,
Memphis, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa State, Baylor, Illinois, Kentucky,
North Carolina, Akron, Virginia, Temple, Indiana State, La Salle, Saint Mary's,
Saint Louis, California, Ole Miss, Boise State, Maryland, Alabama, Charlotte, St. John's, Arizona State, Villanova, UMass, Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Air Force, Arkansas, Southern Miss, BYU, Iowa, Wyoming, Stanford
These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.
BUBBLE (47): Oregon, Missouri, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Notre Dame, Wichita
State, Oklahoma, NC State, UCLA, VCU, UNLV, Colorado State, Creighton,
Memphis, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa State, Baylor, Illinois, Kentucky,
North Carolina, Akron, Virginia, Temple, Indiana State, La Salle, Saint Mary's,
Saint Louis, California, Ole Miss, Boise State, Maryland, Alabama, Charlotte, St. John's, Arizona State, Villanova, UMass, Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Air Force, Arkansas, Southern Miss, BYU, Iowa, Wyoming, Stanford
SEEDING
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), A-10 (5), Pac-12 (5), MWC (4), MVC (3), SEC (3), WCC (2)
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), A-10 (5), Pac-12 (5), MWC (4), MVC (3), SEC (3), WCC (2)
(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH
FRIDAY
Georgetown at Cincinnati - The Hoyas are making a march to a top 4 seed. Cincinnati was in that conversation. They can get back in it with a win.
SATURDAY
Duke at Maryland - Duke is playing for a 1 seed so every win is nice. But this one is about the Terps, who need big wins just to get a seed in the tourney.
Baylor at Kansas State - K-State is the tourney no matter what. Baylor is somewhat safe but a quality road win like this silences some critics.
Pittsburgh at Marquette - I think both teams are firmly in. That doesn't mean it's not a big game, especially when you consider how it could impact seeding.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State - It's a big game because it's a rivalry. But it's also a big game because Oklahoma could probably lock up its spot with a victory.
Boise State at New Mexico - Look out for the Broncos, who are making a charge to get into the field. They are more than capable of pulling off this upset.
Colorado State at Air Force - Colorado State is trending upwards and will be a LOCK very soon. Air Force needs this to keep the positive momentum going in their case for the field.
Kentucky at Tennessee - Time to find out how UK responds without Nerlens Noel. If they respond well, they'll be fine. If not, their spot in the field is in real jeopardy.
Kent State at Ohio - If the Bobcats have any chance stay in the BUBBLE, they have to run the table until the MAC tourney.
Villanova at UConn - Villanova needs to do a lot after their loss to Cincy. Beating a very good UConn team will help.
Virginia at North Carolina - The Cavaliers are a curious case but one that is in my field as of now. North Carolina is also in right now so good game between a couple AT-LARGE teams.
Saint Joseph's at La Salle - Saint Joseph's is a good team. Just not good enough for the tourney. But La Salle I think is so getting a win here will confirm my belief.
TCU at Iowa State - We already know TCU can be a giant killer. Well, the Cyclones are not a giant but they are a team in need of a win after losing in 2OT at Texas.
Indiana State at Bradley - ISU is driving me crazy. They beat the best in the Missouri Valley but then fall to Missouri State. They need to win this game but I wouldn't be shocked if they didn't.
Virginia Tech at NC State - NC State has been free-falling and could really use a win to stop it. The one-time ACC favorites need to start playing like it again.
Creighton at Evansville - The Blue Jays were on track for a 3 or 4 seed. Now they are playing for something around a 7 or 8. That's what a 3-game losing streak will do to you.
Missouri at Arkansas - Mizzou is back to playing great basketball. Arkansas is as well but have more work to do in order to crack the 68.
UCLA at Stanford - UCLA is somewhat safely in despite being stomped by Cal. Stanford needs this win to keep the positive momentum.
South Carolina at Alabama - Simply put, a game Alabama cannot afford to lose.
Fresno State at Wyoming - See above. Replace Alabama with Wyoming.
Temple at UMass - Temple may think they are in good shape but I'm not so sure. UMass is starting to make a strong case themselves. Big game.
Charlotte at Saint Louis - That Charlotte win over Butler was huge. Saint Louis has been steady but not stellar. Both teams firmly on the BUBBLE.
Georgia at Ole Miss - Oh Rebels. 18-6 record but boy is that deceiving. Another bad loss like one here to Georgia and things really get ugly.
Arizona State at Colorado - Herb Sendek probably has a tourney-worthy team but they don't play like it at all times. They need to against Colorado, who also is fighting for a spot in the field.
San Diego State at UNLV - Both teams coming off losses. SDSU to Colorado State. UNLV to Air Force. Both are somewhat safely in but winner boosts the resume.
SUNDAY
Ohio State at Wisconsin - Both teams are gonna be in the dance. Wisconsin would love to defend homecourt and get another quality win. Buckeyes would love a 3 seed and play close to home in Dayton.
Miami (FL) at Clemson - You know how some teams get to the top and then lose a bad one? Looking at you Miami (FL). Don't do it.
Minnesota at Iowa - The Gophers win vs. Wisconsin was much needed and puts them in good shape. For Iowa, this is a must-have as they try and make a late push.
Illinois at Northwestern - The Illini are playing great basketball again and at the exact right time. Winning at Northwestern is never easy though.
Wichita State at Illinois State - I really want to put them in LOCK territory but they keep making it hard. This would be a pretty good road win.
Next update after Sunday's games. It's starting to get real now as we move to within a month of Selection Sunday. Keep it here for all the latest.
MB
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH
**Indiana is the overall top seed
GAMES TO WATCH
FRIDAY
Georgetown at Cincinnati - The Hoyas are making a march to a top 4 seed. Cincinnati was in that conversation. They can get back in it with a win.
SATURDAY
Duke at Maryland - Duke is playing for a 1 seed so every win is nice. But this one is about the Terps, who need big wins just to get a seed in the tourney.
Baylor at Kansas State - K-State is the tourney no matter what. Baylor is somewhat safe but a quality road win like this silences some critics.
Pittsburgh at Marquette - I think both teams are firmly in. That doesn't mean it's not a big game, especially when you consider how it could impact seeding.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State - It's a big game because it's a rivalry. But it's also a big game because Oklahoma could probably lock up its spot with a victory.
Boise State at New Mexico - Look out for the Broncos, who are making a charge to get into the field. They are more than capable of pulling off this upset.
Colorado State at Air Force - Colorado State is trending upwards and will be a LOCK very soon. Air Force needs this to keep the positive momentum going in their case for the field.
Kentucky at Tennessee - Time to find out how UK responds without Nerlens Noel. If they respond well, they'll be fine. If not, their spot in the field is in real jeopardy.
Kent State at Ohio - If the Bobcats have any chance stay in the BUBBLE, they have to run the table until the MAC tourney.
Villanova at UConn - Villanova needs to do a lot after their loss to Cincy. Beating a very good UConn team will help.
Virginia at North Carolina - The Cavaliers are a curious case but one that is in my field as of now. North Carolina is also in right now so good game between a couple AT-LARGE teams.
Saint Joseph's at La Salle - Saint Joseph's is a good team. Just not good enough for the tourney. But La Salle I think is so getting a win here will confirm my belief.
TCU at Iowa State - We already know TCU can be a giant killer. Well, the Cyclones are not a giant but they are a team in need of a win after losing in 2OT at Texas.
Indiana State at Bradley - ISU is driving me crazy. They beat the best in the Missouri Valley but then fall to Missouri State. They need to win this game but I wouldn't be shocked if they didn't.
Virginia Tech at NC State - NC State has been free-falling and could really use a win to stop it. The one-time ACC favorites need to start playing like it again.
Creighton at Evansville - The Blue Jays were on track for a 3 or 4 seed. Now they are playing for something around a 7 or 8. That's what a 3-game losing streak will do to you.
Missouri at Arkansas - Mizzou is back to playing great basketball. Arkansas is as well but have more work to do in order to crack the 68.
UCLA at Stanford - UCLA is somewhat safely in despite being stomped by Cal. Stanford needs this win to keep the positive momentum.
South Carolina at Alabama - Simply put, a game Alabama cannot afford to lose.
Fresno State at Wyoming - See above. Replace Alabama with Wyoming.
Temple at UMass - Temple may think they are in good shape but I'm not so sure. UMass is starting to make a strong case themselves. Big game.
Charlotte at Saint Louis - That Charlotte win over Butler was huge. Saint Louis has been steady but not stellar. Both teams firmly on the BUBBLE.
Georgia at Ole Miss - Oh Rebels. 18-6 record but boy is that deceiving. Another bad loss like one here to Georgia and things really get ugly.
Arizona State at Colorado - Herb Sendek probably has a tourney-worthy team but they don't play like it at all times. They need to against Colorado, who also is fighting for a spot in the field.
San Diego State at UNLV - Both teams coming off losses. SDSU to Colorado State. UNLV to Air Force. Both are somewhat safely in but winner boosts the resume.
SUNDAY
Ohio State at Wisconsin - Both teams are gonna be in the dance. Wisconsin would love to defend homecourt and get another quality win. Buckeyes would love a 3 seed and play close to home in Dayton.
Miami (FL) at Clemson - You know how some teams get to the top and then lose a bad one? Looking at you Miami (FL). Don't do it.
Minnesota at Iowa - The Gophers win vs. Wisconsin was much needed and puts them in good shape. For Iowa, this is a must-have as they try and make a late push.
Illinois at Northwestern - The Illini are playing great basketball again and at the exact right time. Winning at Northwestern is never easy though.
Wichita State at Illinois State - I really want to put them in LOCK territory but they keep making it hard. This would be a pretty good road win.
Next update after Sunday's games. It's starting to get real now as we move to within a month of Selection Sunday. Keep it here for all the latest.
MB
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