2013 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 17

Just 4 weeks now until the brackets are revealed! I love doing this but I also wouldn't mind getting my night back. This has been a tough season for this as teams are more even than ever before. I was just talking with people that this may be the year a 6, 7, or 8 seed could win the tournament. That's how wide open it is, Should make for a fun March.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: With each post, I'm likely going to add another team, especially if they avoid a big loss. In this case, I'm adding Oregon. After a 3-game losing skid, they rebounded with a 3-game win streak. And mroe impressive than their 21-5 record I think is their 6-3 record away from Eugene. They also have avoided a really bad loss. So congrats to the Ducks.

LOCKS (21): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Wisconsin, Butler, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Oregon


AUTOS: Every Sunday, I'll take a look at this group a little closer to see if anything really needs to be changed. I did make a few changes this week.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Maryland's big win vs. Duke has them in this category but BARELY. They are my last team in the field. They replace Indiana State, who lost ANOTHER terrible game, this time at Bradley. The Syacmores have some great wins but until they cure their bad losses problem, they will not be in this category.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (27): Oklahoma, San Diego State, UCLA, Cincinnati, Missouri, NC State, UNLV, VCU, Colorado State, Notre Dame, Wichita State, Illinois, Creighton, Minnesota, Memphis, Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa State, Temple, Saint Louis, La Salle, California, Saint Mary's, Virginia, Kentucky, Baylor, Maryland

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE:This group is ever-changing. Not so much the names of the teams but the position of the teams. As we get closer, getting big wins like Maryland's over Duke will do wonders. I know the committee always says they look at the whole body of work and don not make snap judgements but I like to think they love to see a team playing its best at the end. And that means avoiding bad losses and getting wins in February they could get in December.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (45): Oklahoma, San Diego State, UCLA, Cincinnati, Missouri, NC State, UNLV, VCU, Colorado State, Notre Dame, Wichita State, Illinois, Creighton, Minnesota, Memphis, Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa State, Temple, Saint Louis, La Salle, California, Saint Mary's, Virginia, Kentucky, Baylor, Maryland, Villanova, Indiana State, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Arkansas, St. John's, Boise State, Iowa, Charlotte, Alabama, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, BYU, Wyoming, Air Force, Ohio, UMass

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (7), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), A-10 (5), Pac-12 (5), MWC (4), SEC (3), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Indiana is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

MONDAY
West Virginia at Kansas State - Kansas State is obviously in the tourney. I think their ceiling is a 2 seed. Win here keeps it that way.
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh - I think an Irish win may be enough to make them a LOCK. Pitt could use this win just to improve seeding.
Rutgers at Villanova - Would not be a quality win for the Wildcats but it would be a bad loss, especially at home.

TUESDAY
Indiana at Michigan State - Love this matchup. Both are 1 seeds. Both are tied for the top of the Big Ten. Make sure you;re watching this one...and on mute. Dick Vitale on the call with Magic Johnson.

Virginia at Miami (FL) - The Hurricanes survived a scare at Clemson. Now, they are home, taking on a Virginia team craving a big win to solidify their standing.

Florida at Missouri - Florida sill has an outside chance at a 1 seed. Need some help though. Missouri locks up their spot with a win over the Gators.

Wichita State at Indiana State - Would not shock me one bit to see the Sycamore beat the Shockers. But if they don't, those AT-LARGE chances start to really get slim.

Maryland at Boston College - Could be a letdown game for the Terps. BC played Duke tough at home. Expect the same here.

VCU at Saint Louis - Don't hear much about Saint Louis but they are a solid team that really helps its case with a win at home vs. VCU. Rams may be able to lock up their spot with this road win.

Wyoming at San Diego State - Whatever chance Wyoming has to get in includes a win here. Will not come easy by any means though. SDSU probably one win away from being a LOCK.

WEDNESDAY
Minnesota at Ohio State - Both teams lost soundly on Sunday. Both teams need to bounce back in what is a brutal Big Ten.

Washington at Arizona - Arizona still could be a 1 seed. Just can't lose anymore game at homes against inferior foes.

Kansas at Oklahoma State - OKST has been rocketing up the bracket and for good reason. It all started with their upset win in Lawrence. Pretty sure Kansas is out for revenge.

Colorado State at UNLV - Mountain West seems to have an enticing matchup every week. This is that matchup this week. Both teams in good shape to get in.

Ole Miss at South Carolina - A must-win for Ole Miss. Will do them no good but a loss will do nothing but bad.

Air Force at Boise State - Two Mountain West squads on the outside looking in. One of thsoe elimination games possibly?

Iowa State at Baylor - Baylor's resume could really use a quality win. Beating the Cyclones would qualify, even if it's in Waco.

 

THURSDAY

California at Oregon - Good game here between two teams that have found their stride. Oregon in not unbeatable in Eugene so would not be surprised one bit to see Cal compete or even win.

Cincinnati at UConn - UConn doesn't play like a team ineligible for postseason play. Cincinnati could use a good win to get some confidence back.

La Salle at Temple - Definitely got my eyes on this one. Teams are very similar in resume. Game may be at Temple but both teams are in Philly so might as well be neutral site. Huge stakes.

BYU at Saint Mary's - Saint Mary's loss to Gonzaga leaves them with a very little margin of error. BYU is solid so beating them keeps them in the field. A loss may not.

Next update after Thurday's games.I already can't wait.


MB