2013 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 3

The Super Bowl is over. The NBA is barely past the halfway point. The NHL just got going. Seems like the perfect time to start focusing on another great year of Barnes Bracketology! I cannot believe that this is my fifth year doing this. What started as just a fun exercise to see if I was better than Lunardi turned into a full-on obsession with predicting the entire 68-team field.

If you are new to my Bracketology posts, here are my rules. Once I start, I do not look at any prominent Bracketology websites, such as ESPN or CBS Sports. I say prominent because I have friends who try and predict the field as well. I will read those so that way, I can get into some friendly banter with them during the process. But that's it.

I will update this blog every Sunday and Thursday in February. As we near Selection Sunday, the updates will become more frequent. I try to break it all down for you so you know exactly where I stand. I also make sure I follow every rule that the NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee does.

Now this is the earliest I've ever started this and trust me, I will never start earlier than this. So expect a lot of movement as I try to get a real feel for these teams and where they should be seeded.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: This category is for those teams are getting into the NCAA tournament, even if they do not win their conference tournament. Obviously, this is the group every team wants to be in. The group will look small now because I do not like to put someone in this group and then take them out. But as the weeks go on, teams will be added slowly but surely to give you a clearer picture of teams that are not on the bubble come Selection Sunday.

LOCKS (12): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL)



AUTOS: This group is all about teams that need automatic bids to get into the NCAA tournament. For all conferences besides the Ivy League, that means winning the conference tournament. Those tournaments are still weeks away though so for now, these are just educated guesses on who will ultimately win those tournaments. You will see a fair amount of change here, especially since I don't follow these small conferences.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern , Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Bryant, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: This group is for the teams that will have to qualify for the tournament as an AT-LARGE but are not good enough to be a LOCK for the tournament field yet. These are in order in how I see the teams right now but this will fluctuate a ton as I get a better feel for these teams. It will nto change as much as we get closer. And don't forget. the last 4 teams in this group will be part of the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (36): New Mexico, Butler, Cincinnati, Kansas State, NC State, Marquette, Creighton, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Missouri, UCLA, Orgeon, UNLV, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, San Diego State, Iowa State, Notre Dame, VCU, Oklahoma, Kentucky, North Carolina, Baylor, Colorado State, Memphis, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's, Temple, Colorado, La Salle, Maryland, Alabama

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Pretty self-explanatory group here. If you're not a LOCK, you are on the bubble because at any time, it could pop. Now, you will notice some AUTOS are in this group. That just means they are playing well enough that if they do not win their conference tournament, they have a chance to get in as an AT-LARGE. And you will notice that all of the AT-LARGE are in this group and in order. By seeing the last team in the AT-LARGE group and the first team after that, you'll know who is the first team out, and so on.

Again, this group will change an awful lot, especially these next 2 weeks, so don't read TOO much into them.

BUBBLE (56): New Mexico, Butler, Cincinnati, Kansas State, NC State, Marquette, Creighton, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Missouri, UCLA, Orgeon, UNLV, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, San Diego State, Iowa State, Notre Dame, VCU, Oklahoma, Kentucky, North Carolina, Baylor, Colorado State, Memphis, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's, Temple, Colorado, La Salle, Maryland, Alabama, Illinois, BYU, Akron, Villanova, Charlotte, Indiana State, Washington, Virginia, Southern Miss, Boise State, Ohio Richmond, Stanford, Rutgers, Iowa, Wyoming, Northeastern, California, UTEP, Florida State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (6), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), A-10 (5), SEC (5), MWC (4), Pac-12 (4), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Indiana is the overall top seed

And that's all she wrote. Here are my goals for my final bracket on Selection Sunday:

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region
2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots
3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct
4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup

Normally, I'll post the games of the week here but not this time. Too many teams in the mix right now.

MB