The 2012 NFL season that was

We're just a few days away until the end of the 2012 NFL season and while many of us are looking forward to the Super Bowl (and the end of the ad nauseum coverage of it on ESPN), I'm gonna take a look back at the season that was and the awful predictions I made before the season began.

MY AFC PREDICTIONS (actual record in parentheses)

AFC EAST
New England ----- 11-5 (12-4)
Buffalo ------------ 9-7 (6-10)
NY Jets ----------- 7-9 (6-10)
Miami ------------- 3-13 (7-9)

AFC NORTH
Baltimore --------- 12-4 (10-6)
Cincinnati --------- 10-6* (10-6)
Pittsburgh --------- 9-7* (8-8)
Cleveland --------- 2-14 (5-11)

AFC SOUTH
Houston ---------- 12-4 (12-4)
Indianapolis ------- 7-9 (11-5)
Tennessee --------- 6-10 (6-10)
Jacksonville ------- 4-12 (2-14)

AFC WEST
Denver ------------ 9-7 (13-3)
Kansas City ------- 8-8 (2-14)
San Diego --------- 8-8 (7-9)
Oakland ----------- 5-11 (4-12)

LOOKING BACK: Not terrible but not great with the predictions. I picked 5 of the 6 playoff teams and correctly picked all 4 division winners. While I saw a vast improvement in the Colts, I did not envision an 11-win season and playoff berth. I really thought the Chiefs and Bills would improve this season and boy was I wrong. I also thought Miami and Cleveland would really struggle with rookie QBs but both were better than expected.

 

MY NFC PREDICTIONS (actual record in parentheses)

 

NFC EAST
Philadelphia -------- 12-4 (4-12)
NY Giants --------- 10-6* (9-7)
Dallas --------------- 8-8 (8-8)
Washington --------- 4-12 (10-6)

NFC NORTH
Green Bay ----------- 13-3 (11-5)
Detroit --------------- 10-6* (4-12)
Chicago -------------- 9-7 (10-6)
Minnesota ------------ 3-13 (10-6)

NFC SOUTH
Atlanta -------------- 12-4 (13-3)
New Orleans -------- 10-6 (7-9)
Carolina ------------- 7-9 (7-9)
Tampa Bay ---------- 6-10 (7-9)

NFC WEST
San Francisco -------- 11-5 (11-4-1)
Seattle ---------------- 8-8 (11-5)
St. Louis -------------- 6-10 (7-8-1)
Arizona --------------- 5-11 (5-11)

LOOKING BACK: Not so good here. Only 3 of the 4 division winners and missed on both wild card picks. The biggest misses Philly, Washington, Detroit and Minnesota. I thought this was Philly's year. Nope. I thought Detroit has solidified its spot as a contender for the next few years. Nope. I thought Washington still had too many holes even with RG3. Nope. I thought Peterson off his injury and Ponder at QB spelled trouble for Minnesota. Nope. Man, is this humbling. I was a little low on Seattle and a little high on New Orleans but not terribly off.

MY PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Baltimore over Houston

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Atlanta over Green Bay

SUPER BOWL XLVII
Baltimore over Atlanta

 

LOOKING BACK: I'm fine with these predictions. 2 of the 4 conference championship game participants and 2 others that for a lot of weeks many thought would reach that point. As for my Super Bowl prediction, you could argue this should be the matchup if not for 1-2 plays in the NFC championship. I have not nailed a Super Bowl winner in a long time so it's cool to have that chance still.

 

MY BLACK MONDAY PREDICTION

 

COACHES FIRED:
Lovie Smith, CHI
Norv Turner, SD
Rex Ryan, NYJ
Pat Shurmur, CLE
Ken Whisenhunt, AZ (in season)
Leslie Frazier, MIN (in season)
Jason Garrett, DAL

LOOKING BACK: Well as you can see, I anticipated quite a few changes after the season. But even 7 wasn't enough. Instead, 8 were fired. Shockingly, not one of those coaches were let go before the season ended though. 4 on my list were actually fired. One of the coaches on my list actually led his team to the playoffs (Sorry Leslie). Rex and Jason probably should be fired but are still alive and kicking. Norv, Lovie and Whiz were easy to call since they were pretty much playoffs or bust. Shurmur was more of a gut feeling. I figured Mularkey would get at least a 2nd year in Jacksonville and I had no clue Philly, Buffalo and KC would be so awful this season or I would have added their coaches on this list as well.

MY YEAR-END AWARDS PREDICTIONS

AWARDS
Offensive Rookie: Andrew Luck, IND
Defensive Rookie: Luke Kuechly, CAR
Offensive Player: Michael Vick, PHI
Defensive Player: Patrick Willis, SF
Coach: Andy Reid, PHI
MVP: Ray Rice, BAL

 

LOOKING BACK: Clearly, some of these have no chance of happening. Actually all but two really have a realistic chance. I was simply way too high on Philly this year and while Patrick Willis and Ray Rice had good seasons, they were not award-worthy. So with that said, here are my revisions before the awards are announced Saturday.

AWARDS (revised)

Offensive Rookie: Andrew Luck, IND

Defensive Rookie: Luke Kuechly, CAR

Offensive Player: Adrian Peterson, MIN

Defensive Player: J.J. Watt, HOU

Coach: Bruce Arians, IND

MVP: Peyton Manning, DEN

EXPLANATION: I'm sticking with Luck as Offensive Rookie. It's clearly a 3-way race with him, Griffin and Wilson. I'm giving the slightest of edges to Luck though for 2 reasons. One, he did more with less. I mean, the Colts had 2 wins last season and the majority of their team were 1st- or 2nd-year players. That's an astounding number. Yes, he had an easier schedule but so does every #1 pick and they don't do what he did this past season. Really impressive stuff. The other big reason is that he did a lot of it without a consistent running game. While Griffin had Morris and Wilson had Lynch to lean on in games, Luck had his arm. So yes, that meant more picks and a record amount of passing yards for a rookie, but just look at the record (11-5) and you can see just how great he was this season. Wilson or Griffin could win and I'd be fine with it but I'd vote for Luck.

Kuechly led the NFL in tackles...and he's a rookie. Enough said. There are other contenders but I'm giving it to him.

Peterson could be the MVP but I have a feeling the voters will give him this instead. He racked up 2,000+ rush yds on a team that did not hide the fact that they were going to run it and run it a lot.

I'm pretty sure J.J. Watt is a lock for Defensive Player honors. Led the NFL in sacks and probably swats at the line of scrimmage. You really had to gameplan around him all season.

I'm giving the Coach award to Bruce Arians, which I think is allowed. He surely deserves it for leading the Colts to 9 of their 11 wins in the absence of Chuck Pagano. If he is ineligible because he technically is an assistant coach, I would vote for Pete Carroll, simply based on his gutsy decision to start Russell Wilson out of training camp. I'm not sure the media will vote for him (likely Mike Smith or John Fox) but I would go Carroll.

As far as MVP, I would personally pick Peterson but I'm predicting Manning. Media loves the guy. By definition, I know Peterson is more valuable than Peyton is to his team. But what Manning did off his injury is just as impressive. Whoever wins Offensive Player does not win MVP. That much I know.

SUPER BOWL XLVII BREAKDOWN/PREDICTION

Alright, now to the game on Super Sunday. As you saw earlier, I picked the Ravens to win the Super Bowl back in August. But that pick was more based on that Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and the offense improving greatly. We saw flashes of that when the season began when they put up 44 on the Bengals in Week 1 and 31 against the Pats in Week 3. But the offense grew inconsistent near the end of the regular season and my confidence in them wavered. So much so, I picked the Colts to beat them in the wild card round. But after 3 impressive playoff wins, the Ravens are back to the team I thought they would be.

The 49ers I picked to go 11-5 when the season began are not the 49ers that went 11-4-1. That's because of Colin Kaepernick. The 49ers are really good with Smith at QB. They are great with Kaepernick. I was a bit leery of his passing ability initially but those doubts are gone. The guy has a cannon for an arm but can put some touch on it as well. He has been more accurate than I ever thought he would be and obviously, his ability to get outside the pocket and make things happen is something Smith could not bring, or at least not to the degree Kaepernick does. The defense is still one of the best in the NFL and besides a few lapses, has proven to be one that can win a game.

This is one of the toughest Super Bowls to pick. I don't think there is a clear cut winner. Both have great defenses. Both have dynamic offenses. Both have a Harbugh on the sidelines. In the end, I'm going with Baltimore because of their performance vs. New England. It was so dominant that it convinced me this team just has everything figured out and is peaking at the right time. Yes, the 49ers won on the road last week but it was not impressive. The Falcons threw all over the Niners defense and were just 1-2 plays away from winning the game. Yes, you could make the argument that the Ravens were one deep pass away from not even getting to the AFC championship too. Ugh, see....I'm gonna talk myself out of my own prediction!

FINAL PREDICTION: BALTIMORE 24, SAN FRANCISCO 21