2016 Barnes Bracketology - FINAL

So this is the end. My final bracket. My goals for my racket compared to the committee's is this:

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region
2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots
3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct
4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup

AND REMEMBER: There is no right/wrong in this exercise. This is all subjective. Yes, I would love to get all 68 teams but I am trying to predict the unpredictable, which is what 10 people I have never met are thinking. Hope you enjoyed this!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added UConn. They deserved it. Some decent shuffling as well with UNC jumping to the second spot, Villanova dropping to sixth, and Saint Joseph's and Seton Hall moving up some slots.

LOCKS (38): Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia, Oregon, Michigan State, Villanova, Oklahoma, Xavier, West Virginia, Utah, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Texas A+M, Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Duke, California, Iowa State, Texas, Arizona, Seton Hall, Baylor, Notre Dame, Saint Joseph's, Dayton, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, Providence, Texas Tech, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, USC, St. Bonaventure, UConn, South Carolina, Wichita State

AUTOS: Changes only coming to teams that won their tournaments.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (24): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Buffalo, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa, Mountain West - Fresno State, Northeast - Fairleigh Dickinson, Ohio Valley - Austin Peay, Patriot - Holy Cross, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Gonzaga, WAC - Cal St. Bakersfield

AT-LARGE: This was tough.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (6): Butler, Cincinnati, VCU, Monmouth, Temple, Saint Mary's

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Again, this was tough.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (12): Butler, Cincinnati, VCU, Monmouth, Temple, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, Michigan, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Valparaiso, Tulsa

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), A-10 (4), SEC (4), American (3), MAAC (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 12

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?! What a Friday of college basketball. Fantastic finishes galore and numerous overtime games. And this is just an appetizer to the NCAA Tournament. I have a little bit of movement in the bracket. Tomorrow, I'll post my final projected bracket around 3-4pm. For now, here's the penultimate post.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: No additions but the biggest move is that north Carolina jumps to the 4 spot, meaning they are the 4th number one seed. Villanova has locked their one seed up. Virginia and North Carolina will lock up the third one with a win. The fourth could still be up for grabs but I haven't made up my mind yet. I think the top 8 teams are locked into  one and two seeds. The only team that could spoil that is West Virginia.

LOCKS (37): Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, North Carolina, Michigan State, Oregon, Oklahoma, Xavier, Utah, Kentucky, West Virginia, Miami (FL), Indiana, Duke, Maryland, Purdue, California, Iowa State, Texas A+M, Texas, Arizona, Dayton, Baylor, Notre Dame, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, Seton Hall, Providence, Saint Joseph's, Texas Tech, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, USC, St. Bonaventure, Wichita State

AUTOS: Only change is that another top seed in a conference tournament lost. This time it was UAB in Conference-USA.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Fairleigh Dickinson, Ohio Valley - Austin Peay, Patriot - Holy Cross, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Gonzaga, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Welcome UConn to the group. It's amazing to think a half-court shot at the buzzer could be what gets them in the field. But I think it does. Vanderbilt drops out after hanging on by a thread.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (6): Butler, Cincinnati, Monmouth, VCU, Saint Mary's, UConn

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: This group has been trimmed even more. Tulsa, Florida, Alabama, George Washington, Ohio State and Houston have all hit the end of the road in terms of realistic chances of making the tournament. LSU needed a lot of help that they did not get so they need to win the SEC Tournament to make the Big Dance so they're gone as well. Michigan makes a good sized jump thanks to their buzzer-beating win vs. Indiana and is right on the verge of getting in.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (13): Butler, Temple, Cincinnati, Monmouth, VCU, Saint Mary's, UConn, Michigan, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, San Diego State, Valparaiso, Georgia

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), A-10 (4), SEC (4), American (3), MAAC (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

COMING IN: UConn, Southern

GOING OUT: Vanderbilt, Texas Southern

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Michigan vs. Purdue - Another must-win for Michigan. If they do, good chance they sneak into the field.
LSU vs. Texas A+M - LSU needs all the wins it can get.
UConn vs. Temple - UConn can earn their spot in the field with this win. I think Temple is pretty safe even with a loss.
Georgia vs. Kentucky - Georgia also needs to just keep on winning.
Michigan State vs. Maryland - MSU might be able to sneak onto that one seed line. But they have to win the B1G tournament. I'm not convinced the committee will wait though until that game to make the decision on those top seeds.
Davidson vs. VCU - This is big for two reasons. If VCU wins, they all but lock up their spot. But if Davidson wins, they could become a bid-stealer with an A-10 Tournament championship.
Tulane vs. Memphis - Bid-stealer alert! Winner here gets a chance in the American Tournament championship.
West Virginia vs. Kansas - West Virginia could possibly move up to a two seed with this Big 12 championship game victory.
Fresno State vs. San Diego State - San Diego State is on the bubble if they lose, I would argue they are probably out,
Virginia vs. North Carolina - Winner clinches a one seed, though both may have one when all is said and done.

Utah vs. Oregon - Still a slim chance Oregon gets up to a one seed. Just unsure if the committee will put a Pac-12 team on the top line.

Next (and FINAL) update will be TOMORROW! Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 11

2 days and counting. Don't forget, we're going DAILY so check back tomorrow for the latest update after all of Friday's action, which will surely impact the 

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Did not add a team but shuffled Notre Dame and Iowa a bit. ND moving up in the order while Iowa goes down.

LOCKS (37): Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Oregon, Xavier, North Carolina, Utah, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, Duke, Maryland, Purdue, California, Iowa State, Texas, Texas A+M, Arizona, Dayton, Baylor, Notre Dame, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, Texas Tech, Providence, Saint Joseph's, Seton Hall, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, USC, St. Bonaventure, Wichita State

AUTOS: Only change is that another top seed in a conference tournament lost. This time it was UAB in Conference-USA.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Fairleigh Dickinson, Ohio Valley - Austin Peay, Patriot - Holy Cross, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Gonzaga, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Still down to 6 teams and the same 6 teams but a significant move happened. Vanderbilt went from not the 5th to last team in to now the last team in and very vulnerable to dropping out depending on what teams below them do.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (6): Butler, Cincinnati, Monmouth, VCU, Saint Mary's, Vanderbilt

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: This group has been trimmed again as Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech lost in the ACC Tournament. Neither has a realistic shot now. Other than that, everyone else either won or had a bye.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (20): Butler, Temple, Cincinnati, Monmouth, VCU, Saint Mary's, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Tulsa, UConn, San Diego State, Valparaiso, Michigan, Florida, Alabama, George Washington, Georgia, Ohio State, Houston, LSU,

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), SEC (5), A-10 (4), American (2), MAAC (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

COMING IN: Middle Tennessee

GOING OUT: UAB

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Michigan vs. Indiana - Michigan avoided the upset vs. Northwestern. Now, they have to topple the top seed. Do that and they are definitely back in the discussion.
South Florida vs. Temple - Temple is in for now as the AAC champion. Lose this and they go on the bubble and it gets dicey for them.
Florida vs. Texas A+M - Gators are in must-win mode. Win this one and maybe another and they could get into the field.
UConn vs. Cincinnati - BUBBALICIOUS! Winner is in great shape. The loser could be in rough shape.
George Washington vs. Saint Joseph's - GW can do themselves a world of good with this win.
Tennessee vs. LSU - LSU needs to win teh SEC Tournament. The road starts here.
Providence vs. Villanova - Got to think a Villanova win here solidifies the 1 seed for them.
UMass vs. VCU - VCU is in a spot where a loss is devastating. Get this win and get another to feel good.
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina - Tar Heels still could move up to that 1 seed.
Alabama vs. Kentucky - A must-win for Bama, whose hopes are slim.
Memphis vs. Tulsa - Tulsa is also in must-win mode. Have to get this one to stay in the discussion.
Georgia vs. South Carolina - I think Georgia needs to win the SEC Tournament so win and advance to the next battle.
Miami (FL) vs. Virginia - UVA is holding on to that 1 seed for now. Loss here opens up a door.
Seton Hall vs. Xavier - Xavier's chances at a 1 seed stay alive with this win.
Ohio State vs. Michigan State - The Buckeyes are in must-win mode. This would go a long way into making the committee think. MSU needs this to have a chance at the 1 seed.
Ohio vs. Buffalo - Ohio is my alma mater. So you should watch. Bobcats looking for a spot in the MAc Tournament championship game.

Next update will be TOMORROW! Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 10

3 days and counting. Instead a long drawn out intro here, let me cut to the chase. My field is pretty much set. There will be a few tweaks here and there but nothing huge. I am also making some definitive calls in a few areas that I will detail below. And finally, from this point on, we are going DAILY! The hope is to have the brackets out by noon each day, except on Sunday, which will likely come around 3-3:30pm.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: First thing, Kansas is the overall number one seed, no matter what happens in the Big 12 Tournament. Villanova is about 90% secure as a 1 seed. Virginia and Oklahoma are not as safe. Teams like Xavier, Oregon, UNC, and MSU winning their conference tournaments could very well push them out. I expect Oklahoma to drop to a 2 seed because of that scenario but for now, they stay where they are. I added Pittsburgh to the list, thanks to their win vs. Syracuse in the ACC Tournament.

LOCKS (37): Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Oregon, Xavier, North Carolina, Utah, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, Duke, Maryland, Purdue, California, Iowa State, Texas, Texas A+M, Arizona, Dayton, Iowa, Baylor, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Colorado, Texas Tech, Providence, Saint Joseph's, Seton Hall, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, USC, St. Bonaventure, Wichita State

AUTOS: Good amount of change here as there have been a TON of upsets in the conference tournaments. A lot of the top seeds fell, allowing some other teams to get the automatic invite.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Fairleigh Dickinson, Ohio Valley - Austin Peay, Patriot - Holy Cross, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Gonzaga, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: And now, we are down to 6 teams fighting for spots in the field (in my estimation). Butler feels safe to me. Vanderbilt not as much. And then the last 4 teams here could go either way for me. Monmouth and Saint Mary's had chances to lock up their spot in their conference tournament championship games but lost. Now, they are the mercy of the committee and the bubble teams below who could pass them up with good conference tournament showings. For now though, I think they have done enough to warrant a spot in the field.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (6): Butler, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Monmouth, VCU, Saint Mary's

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: I'll be honest here. This is a large list of bubble teams but the only teams that really have a shot to win a game or two and get into the field are probably just UConn, Tulsa, Florida, Michigan and Alabama. The rest of this group after them probably only gets in if they win the entire conference tournament. And for a couple like Valparaiso and Syracuse, their seasons are over as are their chances of improving their resume. Deleted BYU, Florida State, and Georgia Tech as all have seen their seasons end as well.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (22): Butler, Vanderbilt, Temple, Cincinnati, Monmouth, VCU, Saint Mary's, Syracuse, Tulsa, UConn, San Diego State, Valparaiso, Michigan, Florida, Alabama, Ohio State, Houston, Georgia Tech, George Washington, LSU, Virginia Tech, Georgia

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), SEC (5), A-10 (4), American (2), MAAC (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

COMING IN: Gonzaga, Iona, Green Bay, Holy Cross, UNC-Wilmington, Fairleigh Dickinson, 

GOING OUT: Syracuse, Tulsa, Hofstra, Valparaiso, Lehigh, IPFW, Wagner

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Northwestern vs. Michigan - Michigan needs to avoid the upset here. A win keeps them alive. A loss puts the nail in the coffin.

Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina - Pittsburgh is in as is UNC. But #1 seed dreams for UNC end with a loss here.

Georgetown vs. Villanova - Nova probably just needs to make the semifinals of the Big East tourney to lock up that 1 seed.

Arkansas vs. Florida - Florida may need to get to the SEC Tournament championship to have a real chance.

Butler vs. Providence - If Butler can get this one, they'll be in really good shape. Providence is the kind of team that can make it happen.

Saint Louis vs. George Washington - GW is on life support.

Washington vs. Oregon - Washington is on life support as well. Oregon still has that outside shot at a 1 seed.

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt - Vandy needs this one and maybe another if they want to rest easy on Sunday.

Penn State vs. Ohio State - A win here for OSU does nothing for them. A loss means NIT.

Alabama vs. Ole Miss - Ole Miss can play NCAA spoiler here. Alabama needs to make a run.

Georgia Tech vs. Virginia - GT needs this win and still some others. UVA needs it to keep the 1 seed they are currently in.

Marquette vs. Xavier - If Villanova loses early and Xavier wins the tournament, Xavier has a real shot of cracking the 1 seed line.

Mississippi State vs. Georgia - Georgia is on life support.

Virginia Tech at Miami (FL) - Don't be shocked if VT makes a run in the ACC tournament. Buzz Williams can flat out coach.

Next update will be TOMORROW! Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology: Bubble Watch Special

It's that annual tradition of Barnes Bracketology where I lay out the resumes of the bubble teams and let you decide if I'm right or wrong about the bubble teams.

I'll be honest, this is the hardest part, coming up with those last few teams. It's splitting hairs to decide who should get in the field.

It all depends on which metric you like most. Maybe it's RPI. Maybe it's strength of schedule. Maybe it's recent performance or quality wins vs. bad losses. So many different ways to slice it.

And so without further adieu, here are the numbers (as of 3/7) in RPI order. The color coding just defines how I see them in the bracket right now. I included 3 teams that I think will win their conference tournaments but in case they don't, they will be very much in the bubble mix.

Alright, that's all for now. I'll have a new bracket posted on Thursday. It may feature some drastic changes as I re-evaluate every team closely for the last time, because come Thursday's games, we will be making just some subtle changes to seedings and making more time figuring out who gets in and who gets out, as I'm sure the committee will be doing as well.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 7

Less than a week to go until the Madness, though you could argue it's already begun. The regular season is over for every conference and for some, the conference tournament has ended as well. We have already seen a slew of upsets and our first bid-stealer (Northern Iowa!) that will really affect the make-up of the field. It'll be a busy week of Barnes Bracketology so buckle up!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: With a week to go, it's time to graduate more teams who are probably in good shape, even if they fall early in their conference tournaments. So welcome USC, Oregon State, St. Bonaventure and South Carolina. Oregon State is the only one I am 100% on but the others I feel about 80% on and that's enough with 6 days to go.

LOCKS (36): Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Oregon, Xavier, North Carolina, Utah, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, Duke, Maryland, Purdue, California, Iowa State, Texas, Texas A+M, Arizona, Dayton, Iowa, Baylor, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Colorado, Texas Tech, Providence, Saint Joseph's, Seton Hall, Oregon State, Wichita State, USC, St. Bonaventure, South Carolina

AUTOS: Lots of changes here as conference tournament results have been inputted. We have our first four teams in bold, who are guaranteed their spot in the field. Also, congrats to Northern Iowa for likely stealing an AT-LARGE bid from someone for winning the Missouri Valley tournament.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - Hofstra, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Austin Peay, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - IPFW, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Saint Mary's, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: So in my estimation, I think there are just 7 spots really up for grabs right now. That's about normal for this time. Every one of these teams is still very much in trouble because of bid stealers and BUBBLE teams who could make a late charge. UConn and Florida dropped out just due to the process while Cincinnati jumps in thanks to a huge win vs. SMU.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (7): Butler, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, VCU, Tulsa

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: For the teams near the end of this list, might as well figure they need to win their conference tournament to really have a legitimate shot. For the others, it could take just a couple wins and some help. This is a fluid situation, especially with the American Athletic Conference teams, who are all very similarly mediocre.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (24): Butler, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Saint Mary's, VCU, Tulsa, UConn, Temple, San Diego State, Monmouth, Valparaiso, Gonzaga, Florida, Michigan, Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State, Houston, George Washington, LSU, BYU, Georgia Tech

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), SEC (5), A-10 (4), American (3), Missouri Valley (2)

COMING IN: Cincinnati, UNC-Asheville, Austin Peay, Northern Iowa

GOING OUT: Florida, UConn, Winthrop, UT-Martin

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed


Next update will be the annual bubble special, where I will lay out the numbers for the most relevant bubble teams so you can make your own decisions of who should be in and who should be out.. And starting after Tuesday's games, we're going daily until Selection Sunday! Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 5

The madness has already begun...well, kind of. A few of the conference tournaments have started and chaos has ensued. Two of the lowest seeds are playing for a championship, including Stetson in the Atlantic Sun, though they are ineligible to play in the NCAA Tournament due to low APR scores. That means if they win, the NCAA bid will go to the regular season champ North Florida, who Stetson beat! Confused? Don't be. It's March.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added a couple of more teams in this group. Wichita State's regular season is over and today, they play in the semifinals of the Missouri Valley Tournament. Win or lose that tourney, I think they're in. Seton Hall actually lost this week and yet, they locked up their spot. They've done enough.

LOCKS (32): Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma, Oregon, Michigan State, Xavier, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Utah, Kentucky, Maryland, West Virginia, Indiana, Duke, Iowa State, Purdue, Texas, California, Texas A+M, Arizona, Dayton, Iowa, Baylor, Wisconsin, Colorado, Providence, Texas Tech, Saint Joseph's, Wichita State, Seton Hall

AUTOS: Another change to the American Athletic Conference champ. Seriously, this conference tournament is going to be ridiculous. Also, some other changes as the top seeds in confernece tournaments have lost so clearly, they aren't winning the auto bids. This group will be a revolving door of teams until the tournament begins as upsets happen in conference tournaments.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (24): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - Hofstra, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Tenn-Martin, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - IPFW, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Saint Mary's, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: With just 8 days until Selection Sunday, not a big fan of having this many in this group but such is life. The teams near the top are probably in good shape but I'm being overly cautious. Those near the end of this group though not only need to win this weekend but probably should be thinking about winning a couple of games in their conference tournament to feel safer. Alabama drops out after a bad home loss.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (12): USC, Oregon State, St. Bonaventure, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Syracuse, VCU, Butler, Florida, Tulsa, UConn

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: No teams added but Georgia Tech dropped out as they lost during the week. Not too much shuffling in the group either. Big win for Houston who beat fellow bubble team Cincinnati. Winning against a fellow bubble team at this time of the year goes a long way in the eyes of the committee.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (26): USC, Oregon State, St. Bonaventure, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Syracuse, VCU, Butler, Temple, Florida, Tulsa, Saint Mary's, UConn, Michigan, Alabama, San Diego State, Monmouth, Cincinnati, Houston, Gonzaga, George Washington, LSU, BYU, Florida State, Ohio State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), Big East (5), A-10 (4), American (3)

COMING IN: Temple, Florida Gulf Coast, UT-Martin, Lehigh

GOING OUT: Alabama, North Florida, Belmont, Bucknell

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

SATURDAY
Vanderbilt at Texas A+M - Win by Vandy locks up their spot in the field.
Ohio State at Michigan State - Buckeyes have to win this one. If not, all hopes rest on winning the Big Ten Tournament.
LSU at Kentucky - LSU is also in must-win mode. A season sweep of UK would be beneficial to their resume.
Syracuse at Florida State - A good 'ol bubble game. FSU needs this more but Syracuse still isn't safely in the field by any means.
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech - Pitt lost to Virginia Tech after beating Duke. Can't afford another bad loss.
Marquette at Butler - Butler has to win this one. Home game vs. a team not expected to be in the field.
Alabama at Georgia - As quickly as Alabama rose, they have fallen. A loss here probably means a SEC Tournament championship is the only way in.
Iowa State at Kansas - Win by Kansas locks up the top overall seed in the tournament.
Oregon at USC - Win by USC locks up their spot, though it's in good shape already.
South Carolina at Arkansas - Time for South Carolina to take care of business. Their spot should have been locked up weeks ago.
North Carolina at Duke - UNC's hopes of a 1 seed ride on this game. Can't be swept by Duke and expect to get to the top line.
Oregon State at UCLA - If the Beavers don't trip up here, I'm making them a lock.
Yale at Columbia - A win by Yale clinches the Ivy championship, and their first NCAA berth since 1962.
Florida at Missouri - The Gators are on a slippery slope and if they don't win this one, they're out of the field for sure.
Iowa at Michigan - A huge opportunity for Michigan to get a big win. Iowa also is falling fast. They were once a 1 seed and now have fallen to a 6 seed.
VCU at Dayton - Not sure a loss hurts VCU too much but a loss would be huge for them.
Portland at Gonzaga - Looking like Gonzaga is going to need some help to get in the tournament without winning the WCC tourney

SUNDAY

SMU at Cincinnati - Great opportunity for Cincy for a big win before the AAC tournament to raise their stock.
UCF at UConn - UConn knows it can't afford to slip up here.


Next update will come after Sunday's games. And starting after Tuesday's games, we're going daily until Selection Sunday! Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 1

It's March! One of my favorite months of the year. Not because of the weather. Not even because of St. Patrick's Day. It's all because of the basketball. Pretty much starting today, every game means something. It means winning a regular season conference championship. It means playing yourself on to or off of the bubble. Or it could mean that amazing upset that will have a nation talking. It's the true ecstasy of victory and agony of defeat in this month. I. CAN'T. WAIT.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added a couple of more teams in this group. Wisconsin and Saint Joseph's. Both teams have avoided those terrible losses as of late plus added some quality wins in the past few weeks to cement their status as a tournament team.

LOCKS (30): Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma, Oregon, Xavier, Michigan State, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Utah, Kentucky, Maryland, West Virginia, Purdue, Duke, Texas, Iowa State, California, Texas A+M, Iowa, Notre Dame, Indiana, Baylor, Dayton, Arizona, Wisconsin, Colorado, Providence, Texas Tech, Saint Joseph's

AUTOS: Another change to the American Athletic Conference champ. You could literally choose between 5 teams right now (UConn, Temple, Tulsa, Cincinnati and Houston). It's a real cluster right now. For now, I'm going with UConn. I could easily change my mind again by the next post. Very fluid situation

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - UConn, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - Hofstra, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - IPFW, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Saint Mary's, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: For now. Michigan is gone from this group. First time since I've started posted. Just one too many losses, even if against quality competition. Butler returns but barely. Seton Hall and Oregon State are right on the cusp of moving up. Pittsburgh's win over Duke moved them close as well. Florida is heading the wrong direction and needs to regroup quickly.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (13): Seton Hall, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, USC, South Carolina, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, VCU, Florida, St. Bonaventure, Alabama, Butler, Tulsa

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Added 4 teams to the mix as they all got a big win that has them at least being considered. But all 4 teams have real work to do before serious consideration. All will have a chance in this final week of the regular season and then in their conference tournament. The new teams are Florida State, Ohio State, Houston and Georgia Tech. No teams dropped out

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (29): Seton Hall, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, Wichita State, USC, South Carolina, UConn, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, VCU, Florida, St. Bonaventure, Alabama, Butler, Tulsa, Saint Mary's, Michigan, Temple, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Monmouth, Gonzaga, LSU, George Washington, BYU, Florida State, Ohio State, Houston, Georgia Tech

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), SEC (7), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), A-10 (4), American (2)

COMING IN: Butler

GOING OUT: Michigan

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

TUESDAY

Kentucky at Florida - A win much needed for the Gators, who are trending downward right now

Tennessee at Vanderbilt - Vandy did well to beat Kentucky. Can't afford to follow it up with a loss to Tennessee at home.

Virginia at Clemson - Virginia is in real contention for a 1 seed.

Georgia Tech at Louisville - If GT can pull this massive win off, they'll really be a team to be talked about.

Baylor at Oklahoma - The Sooners are still alive for a 1 seed.

Missouri at LSU - Feels like every game now is a must-win for LSU.

Indiana at Iowa - If Iowa wants to play in Des Moines in the first two rounds, it's time to start winning again.

WEDNESDAY

Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech - Huge game for Pitt to back up a Duke win at home with a road win at scrappy VT.

Miami (FL) at Notre Dame - The Canes have a legit shot at a 1 seed. This road win would help their case a good bit.

Texas Tech at West Virginia - Fun game to see a couple of tournament teams hoping to improve their seeding.

Saint Joseph's at St. Bonaventure - St. Bonaventure needs a quality win to create some separation between the other bubble teams.

Davidson at VCU - VCU is in pretty good shape still but a loss here puts them on shaky ground.

Seton Hall at Butler - Massive game. Seton Hall can lock up a spot with a win. Butler can't lock up a spot but can lose their spot in the field with a loss.

Arkansas at Alabama - Must-win for Bama. Plain and simple.

Oregon State at USC - Safe to say probably the winner can lock up their spot. Both fairly safe right now anyways.

THURSDAY

Georgia at South Carolina - The Gamecocks record is impressive. But their wins really aren't. So they remain on the bubble. Can't afford a loss here.

Memphis at Temple - Temple just needs to keep winning.

UConn at SMU - Great opportunity for UConn to get not just a quality win, but on the road. Great resume builder. 

Cincinnati at Houston - Always a big deal when two bubble teams face off. Winner does themselves a lot of good.

Next update will come after Friday's games. Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB