2016 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 1

It's March! One of my favorite months of the year. Not because of the weather. Not even because of St. Patrick's Day. It's all because of the basketball. Pretty much starting today, every game means something. It means winning a regular season conference championship. It means playing yourself on to or off of the bubble. Or it could mean that amazing upset that will have a nation talking. It's the true ecstasy of victory and agony of defeat in this month. I. CAN'T. WAIT.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added a couple of more teams in this group. Wisconsin and Saint Joseph's. Both teams have avoided those terrible losses as of late plus added some quality wins in the past few weeks to cement their status as a tournament team.

LOCKS (30): Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma, Oregon, Xavier, Michigan State, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Utah, Kentucky, Maryland, West Virginia, Purdue, Duke, Texas, Iowa State, California, Texas A+M, Iowa, Notre Dame, Indiana, Baylor, Dayton, Arizona, Wisconsin, Colorado, Providence, Texas Tech, Saint Joseph's

AUTOS: Another change to the American Athletic Conference champ. You could literally choose between 5 teams right now (UConn, Temple, Tulsa, Cincinnati and Houston). It's a real cluster right now. For now, I'm going with UConn. I could easily change my mind again by the next post. Very fluid situation

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - UConn, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - Hofstra, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - IPFW, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Saint Mary's, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: For now. Michigan is gone from this group. First time since I've started posted. Just one too many losses, even if against quality competition. Butler returns but barely. Seton Hall and Oregon State are right on the cusp of moving up. Pittsburgh's win over Duke moved them close as well. Florida is heading the wrong direction and needs to regroup quickly.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (13): Seton Hall, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, USC, South Carolina, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, VCU, Florida, St. Bonaventure, Alabama, Butler, Tulsa

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Added 4 teams to the mix as they all got a big win that has them at least being considered. But all 4 teams have real work to do before serious consideration. All will have a chance in this final week of the regular season and then in their conference tournament. The new teams are Florida State, Ohio State, Houston and Georgia Tech. No teams dropped out

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (29): Seton Hall, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, Wichita State, USC, South Carolina, UConn, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, VCU, Florida, St. Bonaventure, Alabama, Butler, Tulsa, Saint Mary's, Michigan, Temple, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Monmouth, Gonzaga, LSU, George Washington, BYU, Florida State, Ohio State, Houston, Georgia Tech

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), SEC (7), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), A-10 (4), American (2)

COMING IN: Butler

GOING OUT: Michigan

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

TUESDAY

Kentucky at Florida - A win much needed for the Gators, who are trending downward right now

Tennessee at Vanderbilt - Vandy did well to beat Kentucky. Can't afford to follow it up with a loss to Tennessee at home.

Virginia at Clemson - Virginia is in real contention for a 1 seed.

Georgia Tech at Louisville - If GT can pull this massive win off, they'll really be a team to be talked about.

Baylor at Oklahoma - The Sooners are still alive for a 1 seed.

Missouri at LSU - Feels like every game now is a must-win for LSU.

Indiana at Iowa - If Iowa wants to play in Des Moines in the first two rounds, it's time to start winning again.

WEDNESDAY

Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech - Huge game for Pitt to back up a Duke win at home with a road win at scrappy VT.

Miami (FL) at Notre Dame - The Canes have a legit shot at a 1 seed. This road win would help their case a good bit.

Texas Tech at West Virginia - Fun game to see a couple of tournament teams hoping to improve their seeding.

Saint Joseph's at St. Bonaventure - St. Bonaventure needs a quality win to create some separation between the other bubble teams.

Davidson at VCU - VCU is in pretty good shape still but a loss here puts them on shaky ground.

Seton Hall at Butler - Massive game. Seton Hall can lock up a spot with a win. Butler can't lock up a spot but can lose their spot in the field with a loss.

Arkansas at Alabama - Must-win for Bama. Plain and simple.

Oregon State at USC - Safe to say probably the winner can lock up their spot. Both fairly safe right now anyways.

THURSDAY

Georgia at South Carolina - The Gamecocks record is impressive. But their wins really aren't. So they remain on the bubble. Can't afford a loss here.

Memphis at Temple - Temple just needs to keep winning.

UConn at SMU - Great opportunity for UConn to get not just a quality win, but on the road. Great resume builder. 

Cincinnati at Houston - Always a big deal when two bubble teams face off. Winner does themselves a lot of good.

Next update will come after Friday's games. Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB