2016 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 12

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?! What a Friday of college basketball. Fantastic finishes galore and numerous overtime games. And this is just an appetizer to the NCAA Tournament. I have a little bit of movement in the bracket. Tomorrow, I'll post my final projected bracket around 3-4pm. For now, here's the penultimate post.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: No additions but the biggest move is that north Carolina jumps to the 4 spot, meaning they are the 4th number one seed. Villanova has locked their one seed up. Virginia and North Carolina will lock up the third one with a win. The fourth could still be up for grabs but I haven't made up my mind yet. I think the top 8 teams are locked into  one and two seeds. The only team that could spoil that is West Virginia.

LOCKS (37): Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, North Carolina, Michigan State, Oregon, Oklahoma, Xavier, Utah, Kentucky, West Virginia, Miami (FL), Indiana, Duke, Maryland, Purdue, California, Iowa State, Texas A+M, Texas, Arizona, Dayton, Baylor, Notre Dame, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, Seton Hall, Providence, Saint Joseph's, Texas Tech, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, USC, St. Bonaventure, Wichita State

AUTOS: Only change is that another top seed in a conference tournament lost. This time it was UAB in Conference-USA.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Fairleigh Dickinson, Ohio Valley - Austin Peay, Patriot - Holy Cross, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Gonzaga, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Welcome UConn to the group. It's amazing to think a half-court shot at the buzzer could be what gets them in the field. But I think it does. Vanderbilt drops out after hanging on by a thread.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (6): Butler, Cincinnati, Monmouth, VCU, Saint Mary's, UConn

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: This group has been trimmed even more. Tulsa, Florida, Alabama, George Washington, Ohio State and Houston have all hit the end of the road in terms of realistic chances of making the tournament. LSU needed a lot of help that they did not get so they need to win the SEC Tournament to make the Big Dance so they're gone as well. Michigan makes a good sized jump thanks to their buzzer-beating win vs. Indiana and is right on the verge of getting in.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (13): Butler, Temple, Cincinnati, Monmouth, VCU, Saint Mary's, UConn, Michigan, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, San Diego State, Valparaiso, Georgia

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), A-10 (4), SEC (4), American (3), MAAC (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

COMING IN: UConn, Southern

GOING OUT: Vanderbilt, Texas Southern

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Michigan vs. Purdue - Another must-win for Michigan. If they do, good chance they sneak into the field.
LSU vs. Texas A+M - LSU needs all the wins it can get.
UConn vs. Temple - UConn can earn their spot in the field with this win. I think Temple is pretty safe even with a loss.
Georgia vs. Kentucky - Georgia also needs to just keep on winning.
Michigan State vs. Maryland - MSU might be able to sneak onto that one seed line. But they have to win the B1G tournament. I'm not convinced the committee will wait though until that game to make the decision on those top seeds.
Davidson vs. VCU - This is big for two reasons. If VCU wins, they all but lock up their spot. But if Davidson wins, they could become a bid-stealer with an A-10 Tournament championship.
Tulane vs. Memphis - Bid-stealer alert! Winner here gets a chance in the American Tournament championship.
West Virginia vs. Kansas - West Virginia could possibly move up to a two seed with this Big 12 championship game victory.
Fresno State vs. San Diego State - San Diego State is on the bubble if they lose, I would argue they are probably out,
Virginia vs. North Carolina - Winner clinches a one seed, though both may have one when all is said and done.

Utah vs. Oregon - Still a slim chance Oregon gets up to a one seed. Just unsure if the committee will put a Pac-12 team on the top line.

Next (and FINAL) update will be TOMORROW! Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB