2016 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 7

Less than a week to go until the Madness, though you could argue it's already begun. The regular season is over for every conference and for some, the conference tournament has ended as well. We have already seen a slew of upsets and our first bid-stealer (Northern Iowa!) that will really affect the make-up of the field. It'll be a busy week of Barnes Bracketology so buckle up!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: With a week to go, it's time to graduate more teams who are probably in good shape, even if they fall early in their conference tournaments. So welcome USC, Oregon State, St. Bonaventure and South Carolina. Oregon State is the only one I am 100% on but the others I feel about 80% on and that's enough with 6 days to go.

LOCKS (36): Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Oregon, Xavier, North Carolina, Utah, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, Duke, Maryland, Purdue, California, Iowa State, Texas, Texas A+M, Arizona, Dayton, Iowa, Baylor, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Colorado, Texas Tech, Providence, Saint Joseph's, Seton Hall, Oregon State, Wichita State, USC, St. Bonaventure, South Carolina

AUTOS: Lots of changes here as conference tournament results have been inputted. We have our first four teams in bold, who are guaranteed their spot in the field. Also, congrats to Northern Iowa for likely stealing an AT-LARGE bid from someone for winning the Missouri Valley tournament.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - Hofstra, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Austin Peay, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - IPFW, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Saint Mary's, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: So in my estimation, I think there are just 7 spots really up for grabs right now. That's about normal for this time. Every one of these teams is still very much in trouble because of bid stealers and BUBBLE teams who could make a late charge. UConn and Florida dropped out just due to the process while Cincinnati jumps in thanks to a huge win vs. SMU.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (7): Butler, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, VCU, Tulsa

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: For the teams near the end of this list, might as well figure they need to win their conference tournament to really have a legitimate shot. For the others, it could take just a couple wins and some help. This is a fluid situation, especially with the American Athletic Conference teams, who are all very similarly mediocre.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (24): Butler, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Saint Mary's, VCU, Tulsa, UConn, Temple, San Diego State, Monmouth, Valparaiso, Gonzaga, Florida, Michigan, Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State, Houston, George Washington, LSU, BYU, Georgia Tech

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), SEC (5), A-10 (4), American (3), Missouri Valley (2)

COMING IN: Cincinnati, UNC-Asheville, Austin Peay, Northern Iowa

GOING OUT: Florida, UConn, Winthrop, UT-Martin

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed


Next update will be the annual bubble special, where I will lay out the numbers for the most relevant bubble teams so you can make your own decisions of who should be in and who should be out.. And starting after Tuesday's games, we're going daily until Selection Sunday! Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB