2014 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 24

Well, that was an eventful weekend of college basketball. Forget Jim Boeheim and his "technical" difficulties. There were a lot of games that shook up the bracket and could have some lasting effects as we creep closer to March. Trying to separate the teams that should be in and out is getting harder instead of easier as in other years. I think that just furthers the point that the move to 68 teams really dilutes the quality of the tournament. Teams that have been really mediocre are still alive when in a field of 64, likely would be NIT-bound.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added 2 more teams to this group and both are well-deserved. Ohio State earned another top-50 RPI win, beating Minnesota. Buckeyes should be safe now. Same goes for UMass. The Minutemen took down a top-50 foe in VCU and their resume is strong enough to graduate to this group. Besides the additions, a lot of shakeups. Syracuse falls out of my top 4 teams and teams like Wisconsin, Michigan, Louisville and North Carolina make healthy moves up.

These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.

LOCKS (27): Florida, Arizona, Kansas, Wichita State, Duke, Syracuse, Creighton, Michigan, Wisconsin, VIllanova, Saint Louis, Michigan State, Louisville, Cincinnati, Iowa State, San Diego State, Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Texas, UCLA, Iowa, UConn, Oklahoma, Memphis, Ohio State, UMass


AUTOS: Few amendments to this group as some teams that struggled over the past week caused me to re-consider if they will walk away with the conference tournament title.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - VMI, Big West - UC-Santa Barbara, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Western Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Boston Univ., Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State, WCC - Gonzaga

AT-LARGE: Some decent movement here. 3 teams move in (Nebraska, Richmond, and Baylor) while 3 teams move out (Tennessee, Minnesota, Xavier). Besides that, New Mexico and SMU got quality victories that have them knocking on the door of being a LOCK. Arizona State and Pittsburh hut themselves with bad losses. And now that Oklahoma State has Marcus Smart, may be a good time to prove to the masses they are better than where they are ranked now.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (19): Kansas State, SMU, New Mexico, Colorado, Stanford, VCU, Pittsburgh, George Washington, Arizona State, St. Joseph's, California, BYU, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Baylor, Nebraska, Richmond, Missouri, St. John's

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: For now, the bubble has burst on Ole Miss, Indiana State and West Virginia. At a time when all they need to win, they lost. So we may see them again...or we may not. Florida State beat Pitt on the road and stays alive. Georgetown helped themselves out by beating Xavier and LSU came oh so close to a huge road win at Kentucky before falling in OT. They doesn't help obviously, but didn't hurt too badly as they remain alive.

These are in order, so the teams after the last team in the AT-LARGE category are the first ones out.

BUBBLE (30): Kansas State, SMU, New Mexico, Colorado, Stanford, VCU, Pittsburgh, George Washington, Gonzaga, Arizona State, St. Joseph's, California, BYU, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Baylor, Nebraska, Richmond, Missouri, St. John's, Georgetown, Minnesota, Tennessee, Xavier, Providence, LSU, Arkansas, Clemson, Oregon, Florida State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7), A-10 (6), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), Big East (4), SEC (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday's games.

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 21

Just one more week until the calendar turns to March and then, the real fun begins. Still a dearth of mediocrity that makes it tough to predict the final 5-6 teams. The top 4 seeds are not easy either as upsets continue to happen and I'm just not sure how those upsets truly impact the seeding. Yes, it's a bad loss but when it's only your 4th or 5th loss, I don't think it means the team should drop too drastically. It's all about the whole resume, not just one bad loss.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Well, I am committing the bracketology ultimate sin. I am taking a team out of this category. Sorry. Pittsburgh simply is not a LOCK right now. They have one win vs. a team I have projected to be in the tourney. That's it. So yeah, they're still in the tourney but they're not a LOCK. 3 more teams are though. North Carolina, UCLA and Memphis all won this week which is enough to move them here. In the case of UCLA and UNC, they earned wins over teams in my projected field. Also, we have a new top seed for the tournament in Florida after Syracuse's loss.

These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.

LOCKS (25): Florida, Syracuse, Arizona, Wichita State, Kansas, Creighton, Duke, Michigan State, Cincinnati, Villanova, Saint Louis, Michigan, San Diego State, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Virginia, Texas, Kentucky, Iowa, Louisville, UConn, UCLA, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Memphis



AUTOS: No changes to this group. I will re-visit in after the weekend.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC-Irvine, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Boston Univ., Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State, WCC - Gonzaga

AT-LARGE: Not too much to report here. Only one team dropped out (Richmond) and only one team jumped in (St. John's). Add in a couple of graduations to the LOCKS and that's pretty much it. You'll notice this group will get smaller each time as we get ever so closer to Selection Sunday.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (21): Ohio State, Kansas State, Pittsburgh, SMU, Colorado, UMass, Arizona State, VCU, New Mexico, George Washington, Stanford, Minnesota, St. Joseph's, California, BYU, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Tennessee, Dayton, Xavier, St. John's

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Pretty quiet among this group. Richmond's loss at home to George Washington knocked them down the pecking order. Saint Mary's is not even in this group anymore after losing at San Francisco. I did add Oregon and Baylor to the group. They're not close to getting in yet but there is still an opportunity for them.

These are in order as well.

BUBBLE (35): Ohio State, Kansas State, Pittsburgh, SMU, Colorado, UMass, Arizona State, VCU, Gonzaga, New Mexico, George Washington, Stanford, Minnesota, St. Joseph's, California, BYU, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Tennessee, Dayton, Xavier, St. John's, Richmond, LSU, Nebraska, Arkansas, Providence, Baylor, Georgetown, Clemson, Oregon, Ole Miss, Indiana State, West Virginia, Florida State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  A-10 (6), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), SEC (4), Big East (4), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. MIDWEST
EAST vs. WEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday's games.

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 17

Syracuse escapes again. Arizona loses with the help of some incompetent refs down the stretch. Michigan and Michigan State lose at home. And OT and double OT galore! Just another weekend in college basketball. It was exciting to watch and just as exciting to see how it would affect my latest bracket projections with now 4 weeks until Selection Sunday.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: UConn has been bumped up to this group after a solid OT win over another strong team in Memphis. Still at just 23 teams in this group. Over the next 2 weeks, this group will grow pretty quickly as there will be less room for teams to really tank and fall out. These are in order so you have an idea of what my S-Curve looks like.

LOCKS (23): Syracuse, Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Kansas, Duke, Creighton, Michigan State, Cincinnati, Villanova, Michigan, Saint Louis, San Diego State, Texas, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa State, Kentucky, Iowa, Louisville, Oklahoma, UConn, Pittsburgh



AUTOS: Couple of changes to this group since last week. Southern Miss has lost 2 of their last 3 so I replaced them with Louisiana Tech in Conference USA. Also, I like what I see from New Mexico State so they replace Utah Valley in the WAC.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC-Irvine, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Boston Univ., Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State, WCC - Gonzaga

AT-LARGE: Just the normal shakeups here as teams that were near the bottom have fallen out with bad losses and some new teams joined thanks to just simply winning. The order has been mixed up a bit as well as teams like North Carolina (vs. Pitt) and Arizona State (vs. Arizona) had some very quality victories.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (23): Memphis, UCLA, North Carolina, Ohio State, Kansas State, Arizona State, SMU, UMass, VCU, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma State, California, Stanford, George Washington, St. Joseph's, Missouri, Richmond, Tennessee, Dayton, Xavier, BYU

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: You would think teams on the bubble would play better when they know their tourney hopes are on the line. But teams like LSU, Ole Miss, Saint Mary's and Clemson apparently don't understand. All 4 teams are in real trouble after losses in games they definitely needed to win to help their resumes. They aren't the only ones though.

I added a few teams to this group simply because it looked a little small and with 4 weeks to go, I know there are plenty of teams who may still have a shot to play well enough and get into the field. These are in order.

BUBBLE (36): Memphis, UCLA, North Carolina, Ohio State, Kansas State, Arizona State, SMU, Gonzaga, UMass, VCU, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma State, California, Stanford, George Washington, St. Joseph's, Missouri, Richmond, Tennessee, Dayton, Xavier, BYU, Georgetown, St. John's, LSU, Providence, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Nebraska, Florida State, Saint Mary's, Clemson, Indiana State, West Virginia

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  A-10 (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), SEC (4), Big East (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs. MIDWEST
SOUTH vs. WEST

**Syracuse is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday's games.

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology: Feb. 14

If there is anyone out there who think they should expand the NCAA tournament to 96 teams, let this year be an example of what a terrible idea that is. Maybe more than in other years, I am really struggling finding teams that deserve to just be among the 68 teams. So if you look at this latest bracket and think to yourself, "Wow, that team is in", trust me, you're not alone. I probably thought the same thing.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I added Wisconsin to this group after their win over a quality Minnesota team. I didn't drop anyone (and hope to never do that) and again, these are in order so you know how I have ranked each team on the S-Curve.

LOCKS (22): Syracuse, Arizona, Florida, Wichita State, Kansas, Michigan State, Duke, Villanova, Creighton, Cincinnati, Michigan, San Diego State, Saint Louis, Texas, Iowa State, Kentucky, Virginia, Iowa, Louisville, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma



AUTOS: No changes here from Monday's update.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC-Irvine, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Southern Miss, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Boston Univ., Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - Utah Valley, WCC - Gonzaga

AT-LARGE: You'll normally see a little shakeup in this group every update. This time, BYU and Ole Miss drop out while Georgetown and Richmond jump in. You'll also notice some movement among the teams. Of note, many of them lost over the past 4 days, proving how these teams are not exactly breaking down the walls to lock up their spot in the field.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (24): UConn, Memphis, Kansas State, SMU, Ohio State, UCLA, North Carolina, VCU, New Mexico, UMass, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Colorado, George Washington, Minnesota, Stanford, Tennessee, California, Saint Joseph's, Missouri, Xavier, Georgetown, Richmond, LSU

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Well, a bubble was burst. Southern Miss had a terrible loss at UAB that means they really need to win the CUSA title. Also, some teams on the outside looking in had chances to improve their standings and did not, with losses to fellow BUBBLE teams. I added Dayton to the group after looking at their resume a little closer.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (34): UConn, Memphis, Kansas State, SMU, Ohio State, UCLA, North Carolina, VCU, Gonzaga, New Mexico, UMass, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Colorado, George Washington, Minnesota, Stanford, Tennessee, California, Saint Joseph's, Missouri, Xavier, Georgetown, Richmond, LSU, Dayton, Saint Mary's, Ole Miss, BYU, Providence, Clemson, Arkansas

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5),  A-10 (5), Big East (4), SEC (4), MWC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs. MIDWEST
WEST vs. SOUTH

**Syracuse is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday's games.

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 10

For the fifth year in a row, Barnes Bracketology is here! Been a very successful 4 years as I have correctly predicted 67 out of 68 teams each year. This year, I hope to be perfect -- though as I will point out numerous times, just because I miss a team does not mean I am wrong, just means I do not agree with the tournament committee. There is no RIGHT way to make these brackets. It is sort of like a puzzle that can be put together in different ways. Barnes Bracketology is simply just another one of those ways.

If you are new to this column, here is a quick intro. I will update this every Monday and Friday. That is because teams tend to play one game from Mon-Thurs and then another between Fri-Sun. I will explain where each team stands. I will NOT look at one Bracketology projection on any other site (ESPN, CBS Sports, etc..) during this process as to not be influenced by so-called "experts" (who just simply get paid to do what I am doing). I love your feedback too so if you have any questions or comments, go for it.

So for the fifth year, here we go.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: This group is for the teams that will pretty much locked up their spot in the tournament. My goal is to never take a team out of this group, so I may be hesitant to put teams in here early on until I know for sure a team has done enough to make the tournament. I will put these teams in order so you know how I rank these teams on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (21): Syracuse, Arizona, Florida, Kansas, Wichita State, Duke, Michigan State, Villanova, Creighton, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Saint Louis, Michigan, Texas, Kentucky, Virginia, Iowa, Louisville, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh



AUTOS: This is the group of teams that will only make the tournament by winning their conference tournament. Obviously, I do not follow all of these conferences so I tend to just write in the team that leads the standings. I will update these as the weeks go on to make sure I predict the team playing the best at the time.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC-Irvine, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Southern Miss, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Boston Univ., Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - Utah Valley, WCC - Gonzaga

AT-LARGE: This group is for the teams that are not LOCKS to get into the tournament as of yet but still are worthy of being included in the field. This is the group that will slowly get smaller and smaller as the weeks go on. Some of these tams will graduate to LOCKS. Others will fall out and simply be on the BUBBLE on the outside looking in.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (25): Wisconsin, UConn, Ohio State, Memphis, SMU, Kansas State, UCLA, North Carolina, UMass, Oklahoma State, New Mexico, Arizona State, VCU, Colorado, George Washington, Minnesota, Stanford, Tennessee, California, Saint Joseph's, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, Xavier, BYU

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: You know what this group is about. The teams that are not LOCKS and are hoping to be an AT-LARGE selection. You'll notice, all of the AT-LARGE teams are in this group because if they aren't a LOCK, you're still on the BUBBLE. Some teams are just safer than others. You'll also see teams from the AUTO category in here. That's because they would be in the AT-LARGE discussion if they were to lose in the conference tournament.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (34): Wisconsin, UConn, Ohio State, Memphis, SMU, Kansas State, UCLA, North Carolina, UMass, Oklahoma State, New Mexico, Gonzaga, Arizona State, VCU, Colorado, George Washington, Minnesota, Stanford, Tennessee, California, Saint Joseph's, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, Xavier, BYU, Richmond, Providence, Georgetown, Southern Miss, Clemson, Indiana, Arkansas, Saint Mary's

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), SEC (5), A-10 (4), Big East (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs. MIDWEST
WEST vs. SOUTH

**Syracuse is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday's games.

MB