2014 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 21

Just one more week until the calendar turns to March and then, the real fun begins. Still a dearth of mediocrity that makes it tough to predict the final 5-6 teams. The top 4 seeds are not easy either as upsets continue to happen and I'm just not sure how those upsets truly impact the seeding. Yes, it's a bad loss but when it's only your 4th or 5th loss, I don't think it means the team should drop too drastically. It's all about the whole resume, not just one bad loss.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Well, I am committing the bracketology ultimate sin. I am taking a team out of this category. Sorry. Pittsburgh simply is not a LOCK right now. They have one win vs. a team I have projected to be in the tourney. That's it. So yeah, they're still in the tourney but they're not a LOCK. 3 more teams are though. North Carolina, UCLA and Memphis all won this week which is enough to move them here. In the case of UCLA and UNC, they earned wins over teams in my projected field. Also, we have a new top seed for the tournament in Florida after Syracuse's loss.

These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.

LOCKS (25): Florida, Syracuse, Arizona, Wichita State, Kansas, Creighton, Duke, Michigan State, Cincinnati, Villanova, Saint Louis, Michigan, San Diego State, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Virginia, Texas, Kentucky, Iowa, Louisville, UConn, UCLA, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Memphis



AUTOS: No changes to this group. I will re-visit in after the weekend.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC-Irvine, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Boston Univ., Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State, WCC - Gonzaga

AT-LARGE: Not too much to report here. Only one team dropped out (Richmond) and only one team jumped in (St. John's). Add in a couple of graduations to the LOCKS and that's pretty much it. You'll notice this group will get smaller each time as we get ever so closer to Selection Sunday.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (21): Ohio State, Kansas State, Pittsburgh, SMU, Colorado, UMass, Arizona State, VCU, New Mexico, George Washington, Stanford, Minnesota, St. Joseph's, California, BYU, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Tennessee, Dayton, Xavier, St. John's

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Pretty quiet among this group. Richmond's loss at home to George Washington knocked them down the pecking order. Saint Mary's is not even in this group anymore after losing at San Francisco. I did add Oregon and Baylor to the group. They're not close to getting in yet but there is still an opportunity for them.

These are in order as well.

BUBBLE (35): Ohio State, Kansas State, Pittsburgh, SMU, Colorado, UMass, Arizona State, VCU, Gonzaga, New Mexico, George Washington, Stanford, Minnesota, St. Joseph's, California, BYU, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Tennessee, Dayton, Xavier, St. John's, Richmond, LSU, Nebraska, Arkansas, Providence, Baylor, Georgetown, Clemson, Oregon, Ole Miss, Indiana State, West Virginia, Florida State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  A-10 (6), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), SEC (4), Big East (4), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. MIDWEST
EAST vs. WEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday's games.

MB