(changes in italics)
LOCKS: With 3 weeks to go, it's time to add some more teams that are for sure making the field. Oklahoma got a nice win over a Baylor team on the BUBBLE so they are in here now. Notre Dame jumps in with a dominating win over Cincinnati. Let's put in Saint Louis, a team that has swept Butler, beaten New Mexico and has won 9 in a row in a very good conference. And finally, Wichita State who got one more decent win to convince me that as the leaders of the Missouri Valley, they should get in no matter what happens in the conference tournament.
LOCKS (27): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Wisconsin, Butler, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Oregon, San Diego State, UNLV, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Saint Louis, Wichita State
AUTOS: Every Sunday, I'll take a look at this group a little closer to see if anything really needs to be changed. No changes made from last week though.
Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold
AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, C-USA - Memphis, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech
AT-LARGE: Oh Arizona State. Why when I put you in, you fall right out thanks to a loss at home to Washington. Yikes. That loss made room though for Maryland who won easily against Clemson. The Terps are barely in but hey, they are in. Other significant wins came from Saint Mary's and Villanova, who beat teams ahead of them on my S-Curve. Also, quality wins for North Carolina and Kentucky moved them up a couple spots.
These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton
These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton
AT-LARGE (20): UCLA, Missouri, Illinois, Colorado State, Colorado, NC State, North Carolina, VCU, Iowa State, California, Kentucky, Minnesota, Saint Mary's, Creighton, Cincinnati, Temple, Villanova, Virginia, La Salle, Maryland
BUBBLE WATCH
BUBBLE: The bubble has officially burst on Ohio, who had to win at Belmont to have any hope. As for others who lost, they are still alive but not by much. Alabama's loss to LSU was just awful. Southern Miss' loss to Memphis was not bad, except that they really need a quality win. Indiana State and Boise State helped themselves out with wins to move closer to an AT-LARGE but still work to do.
These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.
BUBBLE (37): UCLA, Memphis, Missouri, Illinois, Colorado State, Colorado, NC State, North Carolina, VCU, Iowa State, California, Kentucky, Minnesota, Saint Mary's, Creighton, Akron, Cincinnati, Temple, Villanova, Virginia, La Salle, Maryland, Boise State, Indiana State, Arizona State, Arkansas, Baylor, St. John's, Belmont, Ole Miss, BYU, Louisiana Tech, Charlotte, Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee, Alabama, Southern Miss
These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.
BUBBLE (37): UCLA, Memphis, Missouri, Illinois, Colorado State, Colorado, NC State, North Carolina, VCU, Iowa State, California, Kentucky, Minnesota, Saint Mary's, Creighton, Akron, Cincinnati, Temple, Villanova, Virginia, La Salle, Maryland, Boise State, Indiana State, Arizona State, Arkansas, Baylor, St. John's, Belmont, Ole Miss, BYU, Louisiana Tech, Charlotte, Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee, Alabama, Southern Miss
SEEDING
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (5), A-10 (5), Pac-12 (5), MWC (4), SEC (3), MVC (2), WCC (2)
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (5), A-10 (5), Pac-12 (5), MWC (4), SEC (3), MVC (2), WCC (2)
(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH
MONDAY
Syracuse at Marquette - Syracuse could use a quality road win to get some confidence back in me and the committee to get one of those 4 seeds.
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH
**Indiana is the overall top seed
GAMES TO WATCH
MONDAY
Syracuse at Marquette - Syracuse could use a quality road win to get some confidence back in me and the committee to get one of those 4 seeds.
Kansas at Iowa State - Kansas still ahs a chance at a 1 seed. Iowa State would really be in good shape with a win here.
Villanova at Seton Hall - Villanova did themsleves a world of good with that win over Marquette. You would hope they would not lose any of that momentum at Seton Hall
TUESDAY
Indiana at Minnesota - A week off for both squads should have them fresh. IU is trying to keep ahold of that #1 overall seed. Minnesota hoping to move closer to LOCK territory.
Memphis at Xavier - A rare non-conference showdown in late February. Memphis has not lost since Dec. 15. Win at Xavier probably puts them firmly in the field.
Auburn at Alabama - The football game is fun. The basketball game is not. For Bama, a must-win.
WEDNESDAY
Michigan at Penn State - Michigan could grab a 1 seed still. Losing at Penn State, who has yet to win a conference game, would end all hopes though.
Georgetown at UConn - The Hoyas are hot right now. Rising from a 7 seed to a 3 seed in about 3 weeks. They can still go higher too.
San Diego State at New Mexico - Great Mountain West showdown. Both are in the tourney. Seeding could change depending on this result.
Akron at Ohio - First place in the MAC on the line as well as a long winning streak for Akron which could get some AT-LARGE consideration if they lose in the MAC tourney.
Dayton at Charlotte - Charlotte's dim hopes ride on winning this one. Dayton isn't great but good enough to help the 49ers out a bit in the RPI.
Maryland at Georgia Tech - Terps have to keep taking care of business against the bad teams. This is one of those games.
Arkansas at LSU - Arkansas better look out. LSU may have just killed Alabama's hopes. They could do the same to the Razorbacks.
Baylor at West Virginia - Baylor needs any win of any kind right now. Yes, the Big 12 is tough but WV is not.
Texas A&M at Ole Miss - The Rebels are still on the outside looking in and while this win won't get them inside, it will get them closer to the door.
Colorado at Stanford - The Buffaloes have proven to be a solid road team. Good chance to solidify their case more with a win in Palo Alto.
Saint Mary's at Pepperdine - The Gaels got their biggest win of the season on Saturday, taking down Creighton. No time for a letdown at Pepperdine.
Arizona State at UCLA - ASU is running out of time and chances for quality wins. Getting this one probably puts them back in the projected field. A loss and well, things get tough.
THURSDAY
Ohio State at Northwestern - OSU is coming off a big week of beating Minnesota and MSU. N'Western has been really bad lately so OSU needs to win by 20+ to keep people intrigued.
Gonzaga at BYU - BYU is a tough team to beat so don't chalk this one up to Gonzaga yet. But the Bulldogs are the better team and one of the best in the nation, as seen by the projected 1 seed.
Duke at Virginia - This is the game of the night. Duke hoping to keep that 1 seed. UVA hoping for a huge win to get them off the BUBBLE.
Detroit at Temple - Temple could go either way right now. Wins keep them in but losses could knock them out immediately. Just how fragile their situation is.
Next update after Thursday's games. Enjoy the games this weekend and check back Friday morning/afternoon for the latest projections and prognostications!
MB
Villanova at Seton Hall - Villanova did themsleves a world of good with that win over Marquette. You would hope they would not lose any of that momentum at Seton Hall
TUESDAY
Indiana at Minnesota - A week off for both squads should have them fresh. IU is trying to keep ahold of that #1 overall seed. Minnesota hoping to move closer to LOCK territory.
Memphis at Xavier - A rare non-conference showdown in late February. Memphis has not lost since Dec. 15. Win at Xavier probably puts them firmly in the field.
Auburn at Alabama - The football game is fun. The basketball game is not. For Bama, a must-win.
WEDNESDAY
Michigan at Penn State - Michigan could grab a 1 seed still. Losing at Penn State, who has yet to win a conference game, would end all hopes though.
Georgetown at UConn - The Hoyas are hot right now. Rising from a 7 seed to a 3 seed in about 3 weeks. They can still go higher too.
San Diego State at New Mexico - Great Mountain West showdown. Both are in the tourney. Seeding could change depending on this result.
Akron at Ohio - First place in the MAC on the line as well as a long winning streak for Akron which could get some AT-LARGE consideration if they lose in the MAC tourney.
Dayton at Charlotte - Charlotte's dim hopes ride on winning this one. Dayton isn't great but good enough to help the 49ers out a bit in the RPI.
Maryland at Georgia Tech - Terps have to keep taking care of business against the bad teams. This is one of those games.
Arkansas at LSU - Arkansas better look out. LSU may have just killed Alabama's hopes. They could do the same to the Razorbacks.
Baylor at West Virginia - Baylor needs any win of any kind right now. Yes, the Big 12 is tough but WV is not.
Texas A&M at Ole Miss - The Rebels are still on the outside looking in and while this win won't get them inside, it will get them closer to the door.
Colorado at Stanford - The Buffaloes have proven to be a solid road team. Good chance to solidify their case more with a win in Palo Alto.
Saint Mary's at Pepperdine - The Gaels got their biggest win of the season on Saturday, taking down Creighton. No time for a letdown at Pepperdine.
Arizona State at UCLA - ASU is running out of time and chances for quality wins. Getting this one probably puts them back in the projected field. A loss and well, things get tough.
THURSDAY
Ohio State at Northwestern - OSU is coming off a big week of beating Minnesota and MSU. N'Western has been really bad lately so OSU needs to win by 20+ to keep people intrigued.
Gonzaga at BYU - BYU is a tough team to beat so don't chalk this one up to Gonzaga yet. But the Bulldogs are the better team and one of the best in the nation, as seen by the projected 1 seed.
Duke at Virginia - This is the game of the night. Duke hoping to keep that 1 seed. UVA hoping for a huge win to get them off the BUBBLE.
Detroit at Temple - Temple could go either way right now. Wins keep them in but losses could knock them out immediately. Just how fragile their situation is.
Next update after Thursday's games. Enjoy the games this weekend and check back Friday morning/afternoon for the latest projections and prognostications!
MB
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