2012 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 2

Happy March everyone! The month that brings bubble talk, buzzer-beaters, and "One Shining Moment" is here and I for one, couldn't be more excited. Championship Week has already begun and in just 10 days from now, we'll have a bracket to break down ad nauseam.

But until we get to that point, there are games to play, and some big ones too. There are conference championships to win and bubbles to be burst. So buckle up for these final 10 days, because it's gonna be just as wild as the tournament itself.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes from previous projection in italics)

LOCKS: At this point in the season, sometimes it's not about getting the quality victory but also avoiding the terrible loss. Well, the 4 teams who have been added to this group in the past 4 days did just that. Memphis is in after a resounding win over UCF. Southern Miss got past SMU. Saint Louis got an important victory against Xavier. And Alabama continued their strong play of late with a win over Auburn. All 4 should be in now, no matter how they finish their season.

LOCKS (36): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida State, Creighton, Wichita State, San Diego State, UNLV, Kentucky, Florida, St. Mary's, Murray State, Notre Dame, Temple, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Indiana, New Mexico, Purdue, Iowa State, Memphis, Southern Miss, Saint Louis, Alabama

AUTOS: With Memphis moving up to the LOCKS category, we're down to just 20 teams in this category. Many of these teams are in the middle of their conference tournament right now so all that matters is winning. I didn't make one single change in this category as either the team I predicted to win the conference tournament is still in or the tournament has yet to start and I simply think the team listed is the one who will come away with the championship.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Drexel, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Ohio, MEAC - Savannah State, , Northeast -LIU-Brooklyn, Pac-12 - California, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - UT-Arlington, SWAC - Miss. Valley State, Summit - Oral Roberts, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC - Nevada

AT-LARGE: This ever-changing group has changed again. first off, we're down to just 12 spots left. That means the margin of error is getting smaller for the BUBBLE teams. So getting a good win can really do wonders for your chances. That's exactly what Cincinnati (win vs. Marquette) and South Florida (win @ Louisville) did this past week. While other teams in this category (Northwestern, Miami (FL), UConn) lost, those teams did what they had to do to get closer to securing their spot. With one game left in the regular season, a big win for any of the teams in this list is a big deal.

Reminder that the last four teams in this category will compete in the "First Four" games.

AT-LARGE (12): Cincinnati, Seton Hall, BYU, South Florida, Colorado State, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier, Miami (FL), Texas, Mississippi State, Northwestern.

BUBBLE WATCH

The bubble is still alive and well but it is shrinking. Last update, there were 31 teams on the bubble. Now, just 24. 3 more bubbles were burst as UCF, UMass and Illinois all saw their dreams of getting in the tournament via an AT-LARGE go away. They could possibly get back in the conversation with a deep conference tournament run but it is unlikely they get in the tournament without winning the conference tournament. No new additions to the BUBBLE. Just deletions.

Again, these are in order so the teams near the end are barely hanging on to hope as of now.

BUBBLE (24): Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Harvard, California, Long Beach State, BYU, South Florida, Colorado State, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier, Miami (FL), Texas, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Arizona, VCU, UConn, NC State, Drexel, Oregon, Iona, St. Joseph's, Colorado

SEEDING

Lot more movement here than normal. Yet again, we have another 1 seed. This time, Kansas joins the ranks after Michigan State's loss to Indiana. Ohio State moves back up to a 2 seed after Marquette's disappointing defeat at Cincinnati. Michigan also moves up to a 3 seed while Florida falls to a 4 seed after losing at Vanderbilt. All those subtle shifts led to some big shifts in the bracket, including a region change for the first time for Kentucky. The top overall seed is now coming out of the Midwest region and not the South.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (9), Big Ten (7), ACC (5), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), MWC (4), A-10 (3), WCC (3), C-USA (2), MVC (2), Pac-10 (2)


(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

MOVING IN
Texas, Mississippi State

MOVING OUT
Arizona, UConn

MOVING UP
Kansas (2 to 1), Ohio State (3 to 2), Michigan (4 to 3), Indiana (6 to 4), Vanderbilt (7 to 6), Memphis (9 to 8), Alabama (10 to 9), Saint Louis (10 to 9), Cincinnati (11 to 10), Colorado State (12 to 11), South Florida (12 to 11)

MOVING DOWN
Michigan State (1 to 2), Marquette (2 to 3), Florida (3 to 4), Louisville (4 to 5), Creighton (5 to 6), Notre Dame (6 to 7), New Mexico (8 to 9), Harvard (9 to 10), California (9 to 10), Washington (10 to 12), Xavier (11 to 12), Miami (FL) (12 to 13)

GAMES TO WATCH

FRIDAY
San Diego @ BYU - This shouldn't be a problem for BYU. Win this game and then avoid an early exit in the WCC Tourney and the Cougars should be okay.

SATURDAY
Louisville @ Syracuse - Syracuse has locked up its 1 seed. Now they hope to get the top overall seed. A win like this and a Kentucky loss may just do it.
North Carolina @ Duke - Love a game like this. Rivalry game with a 1 seed going to the winner most likely. Expect greatness here.
Texas @ Kansas - Texas needs this win in the worst way. If not, they need a long tourney run because their resume lately is lacking.
Georgetown @ Marquette - Both aren't out of the question for a 2 seed. The loser is though so some somewhat big stakes here.
Baylor @ Iowa State - Both teams safely in but should be a fun one to watch as well as have some seeding implications.
Pittsburgh @ UConn - UConn is in a freefall and it sounds like Jim Calhoun won't be back as expected to coach the Huskies. A must-win for UConn.
West Virginia @ South Florida - A bubble battle with big time eyes on it. USF could lock up a double-bye in the conference tourney. WV needs a quality win in the month of February.
Washington @ UCLA - Washington needs to just keep winning. their resume is weak but I have a feeling the Pac-12 will get at least 2 teams in and the Huskies are #2.
Cincinnati @ Villanova - This is simply the kind of loss you have to avoid. Cincy is trending up but a loss to Nova brings them down once again.
Charlotte @ Xavier - Xavier is on a bit of thin ice right now. That ice gets a lot thinner with a home loss to inferior Charlotte.
Boston College @ Miami (FL) - Simply put, a must-win for the Hurricanes. And then they still need another win in the ACC Tourney to really feel good.
Colorado State @ Air Force - Colorado State has beaten New Mexico and UNLV in the last 2 weeks, but those were at home. Gotta get this road win to keep momentum going.
Arkansas @ Mississippi State - Mississippi State is still an enigma. They stopped their 5-game losing streak. a 5-game winning streak would be great now.
Seton Hall @ DePaul - Much like Cincinnati, Seton Hall just needs to avoid a bad loss. Then, don't go one and done in the Big East tourney and they should be just fine.
Utah @ Oregon - Oregon is already barely on the bubble. A loss to Utah on the Ducks home court would burst it for sure.
Harvard @ Cornell - With a little help from Penn, Harvard could clinch its spot with a win. But if both teams win Friday and Saturday, we'll have a playoff.
Atlantic Sun Championship - Belmont is the team favored to get the automatic bid. Bruins are always a tough out in the NCAA tournament.
Big South Championship - I'm predicting that UNC-Asheville will win this tournament but wouldn't be shocked if they don't. VMI is playing well lately.
Ohio Valley Championship - This is a huge one for the BUBBLE teams because Murray State is a LOCK. If they get upset, there goes an AT-LARGE bid.

SUNDAY
Kentucky @ Florida - The Wildcats are a 1 seed in the tournament. We know that. But the top overall seed. We shall see. A win in Gainesville clinches that distinction.
Ohio State @ Michigan State - MSU could still get a 1 seed. OSU could lock up a 2 seed. Big Ten regular season title on the line too.
Arizona @ Arizona State - Zona doesn't have much to prove to the committee that they belong in. A loss at ASU would prove maybe they don't belong in the field though.
California @ Stanford - I think Cal has a good chance to get in without the automatic bid. Those chances get even better with another road conference win.
NC State @ Virginia Tech - The Wolfpack need this win badly...and then some. VT is not the kind of team that will lay down though.

So there you have it. The final weekend of the regular season is upon us and the bracket is looking more and more solid with each update. I'll soon be updating this daily so be prepared to check back here every day during Championship Week to see the latest projections. Have a great weekend!

MB