2015 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 2

HAPPY MARCH! This is the month I look forward to for 11 months because I know that madness will ensue. But before we get to that, we have to have a field of 68 teams to populate the bracket. Some may look at my projections and think I am being conservative with some of my calls but I play it safe in this process. Only make calls that are 100% and make projections that make sense. That's what made me so accurate the last 5 years and better than the likes of ESPN's Joe Lunardi and CBS' Jerry Palm. There is a method to my madness....and trust me, it is madness!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I was hoping to add 4 teams to this group after the weekend but instead, end up with just 2. Those being Dayton and St. John's. Both beat teams that were already LOCKS, which is the best kind of win, so it made for a pretty easy decision. Came close to adding a few others but it will take one more game before I feel absolutely confident that "bid stealers" won't steal their bid in the case they falter in their final few games.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (28): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga Kansas, Maryland, Baylor, Utah, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Wichita State, North Carolina, Iowa State, Louisville, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, West Virginia, SMU, Providence, VCU, Butler, Georgetown, Dayton, San Diego State, St. John's



AUTOS: As I do every weekend with this group, I reconsider who is actually the frontrunner to win the automatic bid. I made a couple changes. Very soon, some of these guesses will just be fact as conference tournaments get underway for some this week.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Sacramento State, Big South - High Point, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Another frustrating from this group. 3 of the top 6 in the group lost, keeping them from being promoted. Another 2 teams did not play which neither hurt or helped them. 3 teams dropped out, though only 2 did because of losses. The 3 who are now out are Illinois (who won), Pittsburgh and Stanford. Their replacements all had great wins. BYU won at Gonzaga. Boise State won at San Diego State and Oregon won at Stanford. Beating a good team is always good. Beating them on the road though is great, and worthy of a big bump.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (19): Indiana, Xavier, Ohio State, Colorado State, Temple, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Michigan State, LSU, Texas A&M, Iowa, Ole Miss, Purdue, Boise State, Oregon, NC State, UCLA, BYU

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Fascinating week for many in this group. Most of them got huge wins, including the ones I mentioned above. Others like Davidson, Tulsa, and UMass won as well but those wins did not carry the same weight. They are still very much alive though so keep an eye on them these last couple of weeks. I added UConn to this group as well. The defending champs are playing well right now and frankly, I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they player their way into the field.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (30): Indiana, Xavier, Ohio State, Colorado State, Temple, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Michigan State, LSU, Texas A&M, Iowa, Ole Miss, Purdue, Boise State, Oregon, NC State, UCLA, BYU, Illinois, Davidson, Stanford, Tulsa, Pittsburgh, UMass, Miami (FL), Rhode Island, Texas, Old Dominion, UConn

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), American (3), Mountain West (3), A-10 (2),  Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: Boise State, BYU, Oregon

NEW TEAMS OUT: Pittsburgh, Illinois, Stanford

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Monday

Virginia at Syracuse - Win this game and UVA is probably locked in as a 1 seed. Two more losses probably won't be enough to keep them from this honor

Baylor at Texas - Texas is already 6-10 in Big 12 play. It will take at least 8-10 to think about an at-large bid again.

Tuesday

Kentucky at Georgia - Kentucky is a 1 seed no matter what. A Georgia win though locks up their spot, pulling off this huge upset.

Villanova at Creighton - Nova is barely a top seed now. Can easily blowing it by losing this easy one.

Rhode Island at Dayton - URI can't lock up their spot but this would go a long way to getting close.

Iowa at Indiana (BUBBLE SPECIAL): Indiana win locks up their spot. Iowa win may do the same.

Ole Miss at Alabama - Ole Miss looked safe not too long ago. Lose here and they could be in real trouble.

NC State at Clemson - You can't beat Louisville and North Carolina and then drop games at BC and Clemson and expect to get in.

Texas A&M at Florida - The kind of game Texas A&M needs to win to take all doubt away from the committee.

Wednesday

Ohio State at Penn State - Buckeyes win, they are a lock. Plain and simple.

Tennessee at LSU - LSU is doing everything right lately. Keep it that way and they'll be a happy bunch on Selection Sunday.

Richmond at UMass - UMass pretty much needs to win out and make a deep run in the A10 Tourney.

Miami (FL) at Pittsburgh (BUBBLE SPECIAL) - Has a feeling of a "the team that loses sees their bubble burst" kind of game.

Purdue at Michigan State (BUBBLE SPECIAL) - Both will be okay if they lose but the winner locks up their spot.

TCU at Oklahoma State - OK State just needs to avoid the bad loss to lock up their spot. Been that way the last 3 games.

Cincinnati at Tulsa (BUBBLE SPECIAL) - Big opportunity for Tulsa to prove they are worthy. Cincy can absorb this loss but would rather not still.

USC at UCLA - USC is really bad. So UCLA better win to stay in the conversation.

Colorado State at Nevada - Colorado State looks like a tourney team. Loss here may make others think maybe not.

Nebraska at Illinois - Can you say "must-win" for the Illini? Because I can.

Boise State at San Jose State - SJSU has yet to win a conference game. This would not the right time for Boise State to be in a giving mood.

Oregon at Oregon State - It's a rivalry game but for Oregon, it takes on more meaning as they play for a NCAA Tournament berth too.

Thursday

Wisconsin at Minnesota - Wisconsin can still get that final 1 seed. One loss though ends that dream most likely.

VCU at Davidson - VCU is safe. Davidson is not. So you get the point.

Temple at East Carolina - Temple needs to avoid the bad loss. This would be a bad loss.

Marshall at Old Dominion - ODU cannot afford any loss in any way.

Memphis at UConn - UConn is charging hard and needs to if they want to stay in the discussion.

Stanford at Arizona State - Stanford has had plenty of chances to not be in the position they are in. ASU is not an easy win in Tempe but the Cardinal need it badly.

Next update after Thursday's games.

MB