Another week, another update. And what a week it has been. A lot of the top teams upset by unranked teams, which makes for an ever-changing bracket. Not to mention, the bubble continues to be very soft. It's interesting because there really is a dearth of what I would call "deserving" teams but at the same time, any of those teams are capable of beating one of the top teams any given day. Should make for a fun March Madness.
MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)
LOCKS: 4 more teams are in this group. I put Nevada in finally, despite their lack of quality wins. But with an RPI of 10, they're doing something right. Think they get in even without winning the conference tournament. Arkansas is in after a 2-0 week. Missouri also jumps in and so does Michigan. Purdue has dropped bit but not nearly as bad as Oklahoma, who now projects as a 7 seed, far from the 2 seed they were trending towards in January.
These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.
These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.
LOCKS (31): Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Duke, Kansas, North Carolina, Michigan State, Auburn, Texas Tech, Purdue, Cincinnati, Clemson, Arizona, Tennessee, Ohio State, Gonzaga, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Wichita State, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Nevada, Michigan, Arizona State, Alabama, Arkansas, Creighton, Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Missouri, Saint Mary's
AUTOS: This group is all about the projected conference tournament champions. Obviously, I'm not dissecting the resume of each team in these conferences. Instead, I just go to standings and more times than not, pick the first place team and stick them here. Won't see a ton of changes here week-to-week until the conference tournaments begin.
Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold
AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UCSB, Colonial - Charleston, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Wright State, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Rider, MAC - Buffalo, MEAC - North Carolina A&T, Missouri Valley - Loyola-Chicago, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - East Tennessee State, Southland - Nicholls, SWAC - Grambling, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Louisiana, WAC - New Mexico State
AT-LARGE: I could go a lot of directions with some teams in this group, especially near the end. It's just so close and you end up dissecting these teams and come to the conclusion they they're all just mediocre. For now, I'll go with this order. Here's hoping some of these teams start to separate themselves for the better or worse.
These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.
These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.
AT-LARGE (15): Florida State, Houston, Syracuse, Miami (FL), TCU, Butler, Virginia Tech, Florida, Providence, Louisville, Washington, UCLA, St. Bonaventure, NC State, USCBUBBLE WATCH
BUBBLE: As I stated earlier this is a soft bubble. I may have 28 teams listed here but less probably actually have a real shot. Kudos to Penn State and Utah for good weeks. They are knocking on the door. Baylor has risen from the ashes to make this list. Nebraska had really bad loss at Illinois that does not help their cause but they have a game vs. Penn State ahead that can turn things around.
These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.
BUBBLE (28): Florida State, Houston, Syracuse, Miami (FL), TCU, Butler, Virginia Tech, Middle Tennessee, Florida, Providence, Louisville, Washington, UCLA, St. Bonaventure, NC State, USC, Kansas State, Texas, Penn State, Utah, Nebraska, Baylor, Boise State, Western Kentucky, Georgia, Loyola-Chicago, Marquette, Mississippi State
These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.
BUBBLE (28): Florida State, Houston, Syracuse, Miami (FL), TCU, Butler, Virginia Tech, Middle Tennessee, Florida, Providence, Louisville, Washington, UCLA, St. Bonaventure, NC State, USC, Kansas State, Texas, Penn State, Utah, Nebraska, Baylor, Boise State, Western Kentucky, Georgia, Loyola-Chicago, Marquette, Mississippi State
SEEDING
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (10), SEC (8), Big 12 (6), Big East (6), Pac-12 (5), Big Ten (4), American (2), Atlantic-10 (2), West Coast (2)
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (10), SEC (8), Big 12 (6), Big East (6), Pac-12 (5), Big Ten (4), American (2), Atlantic-10 (2), West Coast (2)
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