Barnes Bracketology - March 14th

You don't need me to tell you that Selection Sunday is just around the corner. You don't even need to check the countdown at the top of this blog. No, you can feel Selection Sunday in the air. Every game is that much more intense. Every shot is that much harder to make. Every announcer's call has that extra excitement in it. And every result could make or break a team's chances into getting into the field of 65. This is why I love March Madness.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(new teams in italics)

LOCKS: No new teams in the category but I can tell you this. A handful of the teams in the AT-LARGE category are pretty much a LOCK but thanks to losses in their conference tournament, they don't get the luxury of moving up to this section. But they should still feel comfortable about their standing.

LOCKS (33): Duke, UNC, Clemson, Florida St, Wake, Pitt, UConn, L'Ville, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse, Marquette, Michigan St, Illinois, Purdue, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Washington, UCLA, Arizona St, LSU, Utah, Memphis, Xavier, Butler, Gonzaga, Texas, Tennessee, California, Texas A+M, Ohio State and Oklahoma State.

AUTO: We have a couple new things to report here. First, it's time to put American in bold as they won the Patriot League tournament. Also, Pacific is my new projected pick to win the Big West. However, the biggest change is that thanks to upsets in the Atlantic-10 tournament, a spot has been taken from the AT-LARGE category and moved to the AUTO category. That is not good news for BUBBLE teams.

AUTO (22): Binghamton (Am. East), East Tennessee St (A-Sun), Temple (A-10), Portland State (Big Sky), Radford (Big South), Pacific (Big West), VCU (Colonial), Cleveland State (Horizon), Cornell (Ivy), Siena (MAAC), Buffalo (MAC), Morgan St (MEAC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Morehead St (Ohio Valley), American (Patriot), Chattanooga (SoCon), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Alabama St (SWAC), ND State (Summit), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), and Utah St (WAC).

AT-LARGE: Yet again, the amount of AT-LARGE spots shrink. This time, not because a team moved up to LOCK status. No, this time due to upsets. The funny thing is that every team in this category that played lost (except St. Mary's, which played a meaningless game against Eastern Washington), meaning no one really helped themselves. Some losses hurt more than others. The worst of them being South Carolina's loss to Mississippi State, giving them a one and done in a weak SEC tournament. Meanwhile, welcome in San Diego State, thanks to another big win, this time against LOCK BYU. They move into the vacated spot by South Carolina. And with the decrease in open spots, St. Mary's is odd man out.

AT-LARGE (10): BYU, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Dayton, BC, San Diego State, Penn State, Arizona, and UNLV.

BUBBLE WATCH

Another day of games and another shuffle among the BUBBLE teams. The biggest casualties were Florida (vs. Auburn) and Virginia Tech (vs. North Carolina). With those losses, their bubbles have been burst. No teams have been added to the list. Some may argue Auburn or USC deserve consideration, but the regular season resume is just too weak to reach this status because of a decent run in their conference tournament. Meanwhile, it's time to also cut ties with Davidson. Stephen Curry and company needed a lot of dominoes to fall and they simply just haven't fallen for them. So we are down to 17 teams for 10 spots.

BUBBLE (17): BYU, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Dayton, BC, San Diego State, Utah State, Penn State, Arizona, UNLV, St. Mary's, Maryland, Creighton, Temple, and Providence.

SEEDING

Yet again, we have some changes among the bracket. The top 4 seeds did not change except that Louisville and Memphis swapped spots. In the 5-8 range, Florida State is up to a 5, replacing Xavier which falls to a 6. Butler falls to a 7 for seeding purposes. In the 9-12 range, lots of moving to accommodate new teams in SDSU and Temple. Siena goes up to a 9, Utah State falls to a 10 and Dayton falls to an 11. The 13-16 range saw the most moves because I had been putting off doing any research for those seeds until tonight, when I vowed to do it. So now, they are a bit more accurate to their RPI rankings and W-L records and not how they were ranked, which was familiarity to me.

SOUTH-WEST vs. MIDWEST-EAST (Click on bracket for enlarged version)

SOUTH REGION (Memphis)
1 North Carolina vs. 16 Morgan State (Greensboro)
2 Michigan State vs. 15 Robert Morris (Minneapolis)
3 Villanova vs. 14 Cornell (Philadelphia)
4 Syracuse vs. 13 Buffalo (Boise)
5 Arizona State vs. 12 Northern Iowa (Boise)
6 Clemson vs. 11 Dayton (Philadelphia)
7 Gonzaga vs. 10 San Diego State (Minneapolis)
8 Texas A+M vs. 9 Ohio State (Greensboro)

MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis)
1 Pittsburgh vs. 16 Chattanooga/Alabama St (Dayton)
2 Oklahoma vs. 15 ETSU (Kansas City)
3 Wake Forest vs. 14 Binghamton (Miami)
4 LSU vs. 13 Cleveland State (Miami)
5 Purdue vs. 12 VCU (Miami)
6 Marquette vs. 11 Minnesota (Miami)
7 California vs. 10 Utah State (Kansas City)
8 BYU vs. 9 Boston College (Dayton)

EAST REGION (Boston)
1 UConn vs. 16 Morehead State (Philadelphia)
2 Duke vs. 15 Radford (Greensboro)
3 Missouri vs 14 American (Minneapolis)
4 UCLA vs. 13 Western Kentucky (Portland)
5 Illinois vs. 12 Temple (Portland)
6 West Virginia vs. 11 Arizona (Minneapolis)
7 Utah vs. 10 Wisconsin (Greensboro)
8 Tennessee vs. 9 Oklahoma State (Philadelphia)

WEST REGION (Phoenix)
1 Louisville vs. 16 Pacific (Dayton)
2 Memphis vs. 15 Stephen F. Austin (Kansas City)
3 Kansas vs. 14 Portland State (Boise)
4 Washington vs. 13 ND State (Portland)
5 Florida State vs. 12 Penn State (Portland)
6 Xavier vs. 11 UNLV (Boise)
7 Butler vs. 10 Michigan (Kansas City)
8 Texas vs. 9 Siena (Dayton)

SATURDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH
Tulsa vs. Memphis (Conference USA Championship) - Memphis could still earn a #1 seed with a Louisville loss. A Tulsa win would be devastating to bubble teams.
Florida State vs. North Carolina - UNC has the top overall seed wrapped up. FSU is hoping to get into the 4-seed conversation, replacing a team like UCLA.
Ohio State vs. Michigan State - OSU is safely in and just playing for pride now. MSU is probably stuck at a 2-seed no matter what.
Mississippi State vs. LSU - Every bubble team just wants LSU to win this tournament. I think the committee is secretly rooting for that as well so the SEC can be represented in the top 4 seeds.
Auburn vs. Tennessee - Auburn probably won't get an at-large so winning the tournament is their only ticket into the Big Dance.
Maryland vs. Duke - I'm not sold on Maryland being in the tournament. I will be with an upset of the Blue Devils. This game really has no meaning for Duke.
Purdue vs. Illinois - Winner of this game could grab a 4-seed with a Big Ten Tournament championship.
USC vs. Arizona State - Every bubble team should be cheering for ASU big time. A win by USC takes away yet another at-large spot.
Duquense vs. Temple (Atlantic 10 Championship) - Winner is guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance, something neither team had a chance of getting until their upset wins in the semis.
Baylor vs. Missouri (Big 12 Championship) - The Bears are making the run of a lifetime. If they cap it off with a win, another at-large spot is gone. This game won't affect Missouri's status at all.
San Diego State vs. Utah (Mountain West Championship) - Mad props to SDSU for this late run to really be in the at-large mix. They should be fine even with a loss. Utah is just hoping to gain a better seed.
Syracuse vs. Louisville - The Cardinals are a win away from a Big East regular season and tournament championship. That screams #1 seed and may even push UConn down to a 2-seed. Syracuse can do no better than a 4-seed, where they are now.
Nevada vs. Utah State - Nevada could play double-spoiler. They could take another at-large spot and/or ruin Utah State's chances of playing in the NCAA Tournament. It will be a close call on Selection Sunday if they lose this one.


Alright, there it is. Tomorrow, I will make out my final bracket. There are very few games on Sunday so what I throw out there is what I will be going with. Many of the at-large bids will be figured out tomorrow. Comments are appreciated below. Until tomorrow, enjoy the conference tournament craziness. Selection Sunday is TOMORROW!