2011 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 5

If the past 2 weeks are any indication of just how unpredictable this year's tournament is going to be, then buckle up. Just 2 weeks ago, all my projected 1 seeds lost. This past week, seemed like almost bubble team lost. It's hard to get any sort of gauge of what is going on anymore. But I continue to press on, do my research, and create a projected bracket. Here is the latest.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Wee have added 3 teams to this category and for good reason. All were bubble teams and all defeated a team already in the LOCKS or AT-LARGE category. West Virginia took down UConn, Cincinnati beat Marquette on the road, and Washington beat UCLA. All 3 were fairly safe before their victories but are definitely in now.

LOCKS (33): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, George Mason, Old Dominion, Kansas State, UNLV, UCLA, West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Washington.

AUTOS: Still no changes here but don't fret as on Saturday, we will have at least 3 teams clinch their spots in the NCAA Tournament. They may or may not be who I have predicted so this category may or may not change.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Long Beach State, Conference USA - UAB, Horizon - Butler, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Fairfield, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Bethune Cookman, Missouri Valley - Missouri State, Northeast -Long Island, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Charleston, Southland - McNeese State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic, WAC - Utah State, WCC -St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: This ever-changing group is changing once again. Out goes Clemson and Memphis after losses and in comes Colorado State and Nebraska, teams who have been here before.

Again, these are in order from most safe to least safe. I would say the top half of this group is in fairly good shape, unless they completely fall apart. The bottom half though needs to keep winning to feel good at all.

AT-LARGE (13): Michigan State, Florida State, Tennessee, Marquette, Tennessee, Georgia, Illinois, Gonzaga, Richmond, Cleveland State, Boston College, Colorado State and Nebraska.

BUBBLE WATCH

At a time when BUBBLE teams should be playing their best basketball, many are finding ways to play their worst. Memphis losing at East Carolina. Maryland falling at Miami (FL). Colorado caving in to Iowa State. These are inexcusable losses at this time of the season. But yet, it happens. It make smy job hard as I have to decipher which loss is better/worse. At the same time, all these losses have brought a team like Wichita State back into discussion for a bid, despite not playing for nearly 10 days.

BUBBLE (31): Utah State, UAB. Michigan State, Florida State, Tennesee, Marquette, Georgia, Illinois, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, Richmond, Butler, St. Mary's, Cleveland State, Boston College, Missouri State, Colorado State, Nebraska, Michigan, Memphis, Alabama, Baylor, Colorado, UTEP, Clemson, VCU, Wichita State, UCF, Southern Miss, Penn State, and Valparaiso.

SEEDING

BYU's loss didn't drop them from a 2 seed but it did confirm to me that they are not a 1 seed possibility anymore. North Carolina though is up to a 3 seed as they continue their impressive play lately. UConn drops a couple spots to 6 as their erratic play continues. Other than that, not too many drastic moves in the bracket in terms of seeding.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), ACC (4), MWC (4), A-10 (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), Horizon (2), WCC (2)

(bracket will be posted later. sorry)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHWEST vs. SOUTHEAST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

Team has moved up since last post
Team has moved down since last post

EAST REGION - Newark
#1 Ohio State (28-2) vs. #16 Murray State (23-7) - Cleveland
#2 Texas (24-6) vs. #15 Bucknell (23-8) - Tucson
#3 San Diego State (28-2) vs. #14 Kent State (20-10) - Chicago
#4 Syracuse (24-6) vs. #13 Belmont (27-4) - Tucson
#5 Arizona (24-6) vs. #12 Boston College(18-11)/Cleveland State (25-7) - Tucson
#6 Temple (23-6) vs. #11 Illinois (18-12) - Chicago
#7 West Virginia (19-10) vs. #10 Tennessee (18-12) - Tucson
#8 George Mason (25-5) vs. #9 UAB (21-7) - Cleveland

SOUTHWEST REGION - San Antonio
#1 Kansas (28-2) vs. #16 Montana (20-9)/Bethune-Cookman (20-11) - Tulsa
#2 Notre Dame (24-5) vs. #15 Fairfield (23-6) - Chicago
#3 North Carolina (23-6) vs. #14 Vermont (22-7) - Tampa
#4 Georgetown (21-8) vs. #13 Princeton (22-5) - Denver
#5 Vanderbilt (21-8) vs. #12 Butler (21-9) - Denver
#6 Xavier (23-6) vs. #11 St. Mary's (23-7) - Tampa
#7 Missouri (22-8) vs. #10 Michigan State (17-12) - Chicago
#8 Cincinnati (23-6) vs. #9 Washington (20-9) - Tulsa

SOUTHEAST REGION - New Orleans
#1 Pittsburgh (26-3) vs. #16 Florida Atlantic (21-9) - Cleveland
#2 BYU (27-3) vs. #15 Long Beach State (20-10) - Tulsa
#3 Wisconsin (23-6) vs. #14 Coastal Carolina (28-4) - Washington D.C.
#4 Kentucky (21-8) vs. #13 Colorado State (19-10)/Nebraska (19-10) - Charlotte
#5 St. John's (19-10) vs. #12 Gonzaga (22-9) - Charlotte
#6 Texas A&M (22-7) vs. #11 Richmond (23-7) - Washington D.C.
#7 Villanova (21-9) vs. #10 Georgia (20-9) - Tulsa
#8 Old Dominion (24-6) vs. #9 Florida State (20-9) - Cleveland

WEST REGION - Anaheim
#1 Duke (27-2) vs. #16 Texas Southern (17-11)/McNeese State (18-10) - Charlotte
#2 Purdue (25-5) vs. #15 Long Island (25-5) - Denver
#3 Florida (23-6) vs. #14 Charleston (22-9) - Washington D.C.
#4 Louisville (23-7) vs. #13 Oakland (22-9) - Tampa
#5 Kansas State (21-9) vs. #12 Missouri State (22-7) - Tampa
#6 UConn (21-8) vs. #11 Virginia Tech (19-9) - Washington D.C.
#7 UNLV (22-7) vs. #10 Marquette (18-12) - Denver
#8 UCLA (21-9) vs. #9 Utah State (27-3) - Charlotte

GAMES TO WATCH

FRIDAY
Southern Illinois vs. Missouri State - Missouri State is in right now because I think they will win the conference tournament. An upset loss here finds them on the bubble.
Wright State vs. Cleveland State - The Vikings don't have many quality wins so a non-quality loss probably ends their NCAA hopes.
Bradley at Wichita State - Getting to the MVC championship is probably a given for the Shockers.

SATURDAY
Kansas at Missouri - The last regular season test for Kansas, who is still in the running for the top overall seed.
Duke at North Carolina - ACC crown not the only thing on the line, but also a 1 seed for Duke and maybe a higher seed for UNC.
Villanova at Pittsburgh - 'Nova has got to stop this freefall at some point while Pitt has the 1 seed nearly locked up.
Notre Dame at UConn - ND looks like a solid 2 right now but that could change with a win or loss in this one.
Texas at Baylor - A must-have for Baylor. ESPN Gameday is there so maybe that'll provide some extra motivation. Worked for Virginia Tech.
Colorado State at San Diego State - San Diego State would love to jump back to that 2 seed line. Colorado State would just love to jump into the tournament.
Louisville at West Virginia - Both teams are in comfortably. This one all about seeding.
Florida at Vanderbilt - The Gators are a 3 seed now, thanks to others faltering around them. If they don't falter, they could grab a 2 seed.
Georgetown at Cincinnati - Just how many of the 11 Big East teams will be an 8 seed or higher? Cincinnati currently fighting to be one of my projected 10.
Utah State at Louisiana Tech - Utah State should be okay already but who knows. A loss here could bring some doubts.
Virginia Tech at Clemson - Right when VT looked safe, they could go 0-2 against 2 other BUBBLE teams. Not good.
Duquense at Richmond - Contrary to popular belief, this is a good win for Richmond if they get it. And one that moves them closer to an AT-LARGE berth.
Indiana at Illinois - The Illini know they must win this one to keep whatever positive thoughts about them alive.
Georgia at Alabama - Bama is fighting for its tournament life in this game. UGA could survive a loss but a win would do wonders for their chances.
Michigan State at Michigan - I have no problem saying the loser in this one may be done. The winner however may have punched their ticket to the dance.
UTEP at SMU - UTEP is hard to figure out. But I can figure this out. Lose to SMU and NCAA chances take a huge hit.
UNC-Asheville at Coastal Carolina (Big South Championship) - We will have our first NCAA berth clinched with this game. Coastal is the hands-on favorite with a record of 28-4.
Marquette at Seton Hall - Marquette needs this one bad. Seton Hall will be pumped up too, coming off an upset of St. John's.
Princeton at Harvard - The Ivy title may just be on the line in this matchup. If Princeton wins, the berth is theirs.
East Carolina at UAB - ECU just upset Memphis but that was at their place. UAB is good at home and playing well as of late.
Southern Miss at Tulsa - The home loss to UAB surely stings but a bounce back needed here if they want to stay on the BUBBLE.
Nebraska at Colorado - The winner moves closer to an AT-LARGE spot. The loser probably needs to make at least a semifinal run in the conference tourney.
Atlantic Sun Championship (Teams TBD) - The favorite here is Belmont, who has played well in tournaments before and always a threat to make a first-round upset.
Ohio Valley Conference (Teams TBD) - Murray State is expected to win this crown but they have been susceptible to the upset this year.

SUNDAY
Wisconsin at Ohio State - If the Bucks get a win over the Badgers, I think they have the overall top seed locked up, no matter what happens in the conference tourney.
Kentucky at Tennessee - For as up and down Tennessee's season has been, I think they clinch a spot with a home win over the Wildcats.
Wake Forest at Boston College - Simply said, a loss to lowly Wake cannot happen if BC wants to make the NCAA Tournament.
Penn State at Minnesota - PSU is already just livin' on a prayer. They have to beat Minnesota, who hasn't won in what feels like months.
Florida State at NC State - I know NC State is not good but a win over them locks up FSU's spot. A loss though just keeps them in limbo a little longer.
Missouri Valley Championship (Teams TBD) - The presumed final is Wichita State vs. Missouri State. If that's the case, loser is on the BUBBLE and may/may not need help.

And that's all I got for now. Next update will come after Sunday night's games. Should be some movement as well as finally have some teams locked in the tournament. Of course, feel free to leave comments here on the blog or on Facebook or on my Twitter.

MB