2011 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 2

For the first time in the month of March, let me welcome you to Barnes Bracketology. Hard to believe we're down to around 10 days left until Selection Sunday (countdown clock above). with the conference tournaments about to begin, my job is about to really get fun on this blog. But for now, it's not too crazy as just some minor changes since the last post on Monday.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Not one change in this category as expected. Losses by Illinois and Virginia Tech who might have been able to lock up their spot prevented them from doing so.

LOCKS (30): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, George Mason, Old Dominion, Kansas State, UNLV, and UCLA.

AUTOS: No changes here as I am sticking with my predictions. I will say though that in one conference (MAC), one team is really getting hot and could easily be the best in the conference right now. For risk of jinxing them though, I will not type their name here on this blog until they win the conference tournament though like a year ago.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Long Beach State, Conference USA - UAB, Horizon - Butler, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Fairfield, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Bethune Cookman, Missouri Valley - Missouri State, Northeast -Long Island, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Charleston, Southland - McNeese State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic, WAC - Utah State, WCC -St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: As far as the teams are concerned, only one change as we welcome Boston College to the AT-LARGE ranks. This after handily defeating fellow AT-LARGE Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. They replace Alabama, who lost badly at Florida. A loss against a good team, yes, but also another loss that they just cannot afford when teams around them are winning.

Again, these are in order from most safe to least safe. I would say the top half of this group is in fairly good shape, unless they completely fall apart. The bottom half though needs to keep winning to feel good at all.

AT-LARGE (16): West Virginia, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Florida State, Washington, Marquette, Illinois, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, Tennessee, Georgia, Richmond, Cleveland State, Clemson, Memphis, and Boston College.

BUBBLE WATCH

During these two days of not so many games, I did a bit more bubble research, really trying hard to dissect their resumes. When I did that, I came to some conclusions. First, I was selling St. Mary's way too high. Second, I needed to dump Minnesota altogether. And finally, Michigan deserved to at least be in this category. So those changes have been made. I continue to leave teams live Valparaiso, Penn, State, VCU and UCF in this because well, I'm an optimist and think they still have a chance despite it looking like all need to win their conference tourneys to have a chance. So now, the new and improved order of BUBBLE teams.

BUBBLE (34): West Virginia, Utah State, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Florida State, Washington, Marquette, Illinois, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, St. Mary's, Tennessee, Georgia, Butler, UAB, Richmond, Cleveland State, Clemson, Memphis, Missouri State, Southern Miss, Nebraska, Michigan, Alabama, Colorado, Colorado State, Maryland, Baylor, Boston College, UTEP, VCU, Penn State, Valparaiso, and UCF.

SEEDING

Because of the small amount of games that could affect seeding, you won't find too many changes to the bracket among seeding. Now placement may be different, especially around the 7-12 range where it gets tough to place teams once you consider the NCAA regulations on making the bracket. Notre Dame is back to a 2 seed, knocking San Diego State down. Also, Kansas State and Temple move up to 6 seeds while Missouri and Villanova fall to 7 seeds. Other than that, just some minor moves you'll see.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (6), ACC (5), Big 12 (5), SEC (5), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), C-USA (2), Colonial (2), Horizon (2), WCC (2)


(click on bracket to enlarge)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHWEST vs. SOUTHEAST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

Team has moved up since last post
Team has moved down since last post

EAST REGION - Newark
#1 Ohio State (28-2) vs. #16 Murray State (23-7) - Cleveland
#2 Notre Dame (24-5) vs. #15 Bucknell (22-8) - Tucson
#3 San Diego State (28-2) vs. #14 Charleston (22-9) - Chicago
#4 Georgetown (21-8) vs. #13 Oakland (22-9) - Tucson
#5 Kentucky (21-8) vs. #12 Clemson (19-9)/Cleveland State (25-7) - Tucson
#6 Kansas State (21-9) vs. #11 St. Mary's (23-7) - Chicago
#7 George Mason (25-5) vs. #10 Virginia Tech (19-9) - Tucson
#8 UCLA (21-8) vs. #9 Cincinnati (22-6) - Cleveland

SOUTHWEST REGION - San Antonio
#1 Kansas (27-2) vs. #16 Montana (20-9)/Texas Southern (16-11) - Tulsa
#2 Purdue (25-5) vs. #15 Fairfield (23-6) - Chicago
#3 Florida (23-6) vs. #14 Vermont (22-7) - Tampa
#4 UConn (21-7) vs. #13 Belmont (27-4) - Denver
#5 Arizona (23-6) vs. #12 UAB (20-7) - Denver
#6 Temple (22-6) vs. #11 Butler (21-9) - Tampa
#7 Missouri (22-8) vs. #10 Gonzaga (22-9) - Chicago
#8 West Virginia (18-10) vs. #9 Florida State (20-8) - Tulsa

SOUTHEAST REGION - New Orleans
#1 Pittsburgh (25-3) vs. #16 Bethune-Cookman (19-11)/McNeese State (18-9) - Cleveland
#2 Texas (24-6) vs. #15 Long Beach State (19-10) - Tulsa
#3 Wisconsin (22-6) vs. #14 Coastal Carolina (27-4) - Washington D.C.
#4 North Carolina (22-6) vs. #13 Princeton (22-5) - Charlotte
#5 St. John's (19-9) vs. #12 Missouri State (22-7) - Charlotte
#6 Xavier (22-6) vs. #11 Tennessee (17-12) - Washington D.C.
#7 UNLV (22-7) vs. #10 Marquette (18-11) - Tulsa
#8 Utah State (26-3) vs. #9 Michigan State (16-12) - Cleveland

WEST REGION - Anaheim
#1 Duke (26-2) vs. #16 Florida Atlantic (21-9) - Charlotte
#2 BYU (27-2) vs. #15 Long Island (24-5) - Denver
#3 Syracuse (24-6) vs. #14 Kent State (20-10) - Washington D.C.
#4 Louisville (22-7) vs. #13 Memphis (21-8)/Boston College(18-11)- Tampa
#5 Vanderbilt (21-8) vs. #12 Richmond (22-7) - Tampa
#6 Texas A&M (22-6) vs. #11 Georgia (19-9) - Washington D.C.
#7 Villanova (21-9) vs. #10 Illinois (18-12) - Denver
#8 Old Dominion (24-6) vs. #9 Washington (19-9) - Charlotte

GAMES TO WATCH

WEDNESDAY
Texas A&M at Kansas - Kansas just got back to the 1 seed line. A loss here at home paves the way for BYU to take their spot.
Clemson at Duke - Clemson could pretty much clinch their spot with this huge road win. Plus, a Duke loss drops them from a 1 seed most likely.
North Carolina at Florida State - FSU is still in good shape but they'll be a LOCK if they pull off this upset at home.
UConn at West Virginia - See above, replace FSU with WV.
Iowa at Michigan State - Iowa has been a pest to each Big Ten team so far. MSU can't lose this game.
Memphis at East Carolina - The Tigers are barely in my bracket now. Just think what a loss to ECU would do.
Maryland at Miami (FL) - This won't be an easy win for Maryland but it's one that they have to have.
UAB at Southern Miss - A true bubble battle. Both teams fighting for their tourney lives. Winner gets a big boost.
Colorado at Iowa State - Colorado can't just stay alive on that Texas win. They lose this game, they're done.
LSU at Georgia - The Bulldogs are doing everything right. Winning games they are supposed to. This qualifies as one of those.
Cincinnati at Marquette - Marquette needs this game more as Cincy is fairly safe. Winner takes huge step to locking up their spot.
Utah at Colorado State - Colorado State is still alive but not sure if they will be if they lose at home to the Utes.
Marshall at UTEP - UTEP has some work to do to move up. A win over a 20-win Marshall team would help their cause.

THURSDAY
Tennessee at South Carolina - The Vols are such an enigma, and because of that, so is there tourney fate. This is a must-win for them in Columbia.
UCLA at Washington - UCLA is in. Washington probably would be too with this win at home.

Alright folks, that's all for now. Next update will come after Thursday night's action. And then, we'll have another after the weekend. Should be some movement as there are lots of games in the next two days that should affect seedings and placement. Of course, feel free to leave comments here on the blog or on Facebook or on my Twitter.

MB