2011 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 28

Welcome back to Barnes Bracketology. We are now just 2 weeks away until Selection Sunday so to say things are getting serious for the teams on the BUBBLE would be a understatement. While some truly helped their cause this past weekend, others really hurt it with bad losses on the road or at home. The top seeds weren't immune to the upset either as 3 of my 1 seeds lost over the weekend. All of this just means I had a lot of work to do and changes to make. But that's what I signed up for.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: As we get closer to the tourney, I said this group would grow pretty consistently. Well, it starts with this post as we add 5 teams as LOCKS. George Mason, Old Dominion, Kansas State, UNLV and UCLA all won over the weekend and all seem to be in good shape, no matter what happens over the next 2 weeks. I could have added a couple more teams but couldn't quite pull the trigger.

LOCKS (30): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, George Mason, Old Dominion, Kansas State, UNLV, and UCLA.

AUTOS: Just a couple of changes here as I have changed my mind on who I think will win the automatic bid from some conferences. You'll see the changes in italics. You may also notice the number dropped to 22 AUTOS as George Mason moved to the LOCKS category.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Long Beach State, Conference USA - UAB, Horizon - Butler, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Fairfield, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Bethune Cookman, Missouri Valley - Missouri State, Northeast -Long Island, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Charleston, Southland - McNeese State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic, WAC - Utah State, WCC -St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: As expected, plenty of change in this group. 4 of the teams moved to the LOCKS category. Others suffered awful losses at home (Washington, Tennessee, Minnesota) or on the road (Alabama and Colorado State). Some survived their loss and remain in this category while others find themselves back on the outside looking in. Of course, because of those losses, some teams moved up because of handling their business and winning, like Virginia Tech, Richmond, and Clemson.

Again, these are in order from most safe to least safe. I would say the top half of this group is in fairly good shape, unless they completely fall apart. The bottom half though needs to keep winning to feel good at all.

AT-LARGE (16): West Virginia, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Illinois, Michigan State, Florida State, Washington, Marquette, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Georgia, Richmond, Cleveland State, Alabama, Clemson and Memphis.

BUBBLE WATCH

Not sure if I have written this on the blog yet but man, is this a weak group of BUBBLE teams this year. Just a lot of teams that really have no business being considered it seems but have to be to fill out a 68-team bracket. This group has shrunk as some teams have moved up to LOCKS while two teams have seen their bubble been burst as of now (Sorry to Dayton and Wichita State fans). We also did add two teams in Colorado and Central Florida (UCF), who earned consideration after quality victories over the weekend. Again, these are in order and while making a dramatic move from the bottom to the top of this list is possible (Virginia Tech did just that in a week), it is very hard so don't be surprised to see some of the BUBBLE bottom-feeders fall by the wayside with just one more loss.

BUBBLE (34): West Virginia, Utah State, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Illinois, Michigan State, Florida State, Washington, St. Mary's, Marquette, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Georgia, Butler, UAB, Richmond, Cleveland State, Alabama, Clemson, Memphis, Missouri State, Southern Miss, Colorado State, Baylor, Penn State, Colorado, Nebraska, Boston College, Maryland, UTEP, Minnesota, VCU, Valparaiso, and UCF.

SEEDING

You will see quite a few seed changes in this latest post, and a lot of them among the top seeds. Kansas moves up to a 1 seed and BYU is up to a 2 seed. Notre Dame didn't lose but falls to a 3 seed, while Georgetown continues their fall, as they go to a 4 seed. Syracuse and North Carolina both move up one while Arizona and Texas A&M dropped one. Beyond that, just some minor cosmetic shifting on the bracket as we continue to put the puzzle together. As usual, some teams may seem to have higher/lower seeds than expected but sometimes that is necessary to make the bracket fit the rules/regulations put forth by the NCAA.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), Big 12 (5), ACC (4), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), C-USA (2), Colonial (2), Horizon (2), WCC (2)


(click on bracket to enlarge)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHWEST vs. SOUTHEAST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

Team has moved up since last post
Team has moved down since last post

EAST REGION - Newark
#1 Ohio State (26-2) vs. #16 McNeese State (18-9)/Texas Southern (16-10) - Cleveland
#2 San Diego State (27-2) vs. #15 Bucknell (22-8) - Tucson
#3 Notre Dame (23-5) vs. #14 Charleston (22-9) - Chicago
#4 Georgetown (21-8) vs. #13 Oakland (22-9) - Tucson
#5 Kentucky (20-8) vs. #12 Missouri State (22-7) - Tucson
#6 Missouri (22-7) vs. #11 Georgia (19-9) - Chicago
#7 Temple (22-6) vs. #10 St. Mary's (23-7) - Tucson
#8 UCLA (21-8) vs. #9 Cincinnati (22-6) - Cleveland

SOUTHWEST REGION - San Antonio
#1 Kansas (27-2) vs. #16 Florida Atlantic (21-9) - Tulsa
#2 Purdue (24-5) vs. #15 Fairfield (23-6) - Chicago
#3 Florida (22-6) vs. #14 Vermont (22-7) - Tampa
#4 UConn (21-7) vs. #13 Belmont (27-4) - Denver
#5 Arizona (23-6) vs. #12 Alabama (19-9)/Clemson (19-9) - Denver
#6 Villanova (21-8) vs. #11 Butler (21-9) - Tampa
#7 UNLV (22-7) vs. #10 Marquette (18-11) - Chicago
#8 Utah State (26-3) vs. #9 Virginia Tech (19-8) - Tulsa

SOUTHEAST REGION - New Orleans
#1 Pittsburgh (25-3) vs. #16 Bethune-Cookman (18-11)/Montana (20-9) - Cleveland
#2 Texas (24-5) vs. #15 Long Beach State (19-10) - Tulsa
#3 Wisconsin (22-6) vs. #14 Coastal Carolina (26-4) - Washington D.C.
#4 North Carolina (22-6) vs. #13 Princeton (22-5) - Charlotte
#5 St. John's (19-9) vs. #12 UAB (20-7) - Charlotte
#6 Xavier (22-6) vs. #11 Tennessee (17-12) - Washington D.C.
#7 George Mason (24-5) vs. #10 Washington (19-9) - Tulsa
#8 Kansas State (20-9) vs. #9 Michigan State (16-12) - Cleveland

WEST REGION - Anaheim
#1 Duke (26-2) vs. #16 Murray State (23-7) - Charlotte
#2 BYU (27-2) vs. #15 Long Island (24-5) - Denver
#3 Syracuse (24-6) vs. #14 Kent State (19-10) - Washington D.C.
#4 Louisville (2-7) vs. #13 Memphis (21-8)/Cleveland State (24-7) - Tampa
#5 Vanderbilt (21-7) vs. #12 Richmond (22-7) - Tampa
#6 Texas A&M (22-6) vs. #11 Gonzaga (21-9) - Washington D.C.
#7 West Virginia (18-10) vs. #10 Florida State (20-8) - Denver
#8 Old Dominion (24-6) vs. #9 Illinois (18-11) - Charlotte

GAMES TO WATCH

MONDAY
Kansas State at Texas - Both teams are safely in. This could help propel Kansas State up in seeding and Texas back in contention for a 1 seed.

TUESDAY
Ohio State at Penn State - A must have for Penn State, who is barely clinging on to the BUBBLE as it is.
Illinois at Purdue - Plain and simple, if the Illini get this win on the road, they will be dancing.
Alabama at Florida - The Tide need a win badly. They have this game and then at home versus Georgia. They need to at least go 1-1 but 2-0 would be better.
Vanderbilt at Kentucky - Good game with two teams firmly in the tourney. But how will this affect seeding if at all?
Missouri at Nebraska - Mizzou has been awful on the road all the season. Good news for the Huskers, who are great at home and in desperate need of a marquee win.
Baylor at Oklahoma State - The Bears took a step in the right direction with an upset win at home versus Texas A&M. A loss at OKST would be unacceptable.
Boston College at Virginia Tech - Two BUBBLE teams still fighting. BC needs it more than VT, who is coming off the upset of #1 Duke.

That's it for now. My hope is do another post after Tuesday's games but if I don't, it will be after Thursday's action as as you can see, not a ton of games on Monday and Tuesday that will affect the seeding. Of course, feel free to leave comments here on the blog or on Facebook or on my Twitter.

MB