2011 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 21

Welcome to the first of (hopefully) many posts of what I like to call Barnes Bracketology. This is my third year doing this right here on the blog and I am excited to do it again. It's a tedious and time-consuming task but one that I don't mind because it challenges me...and I love challenges.

If this is your first time checking out my Bracketology, here is how I do things. I read the NCAA procedures on how to compile the bracket each year, as they tend to change year-by-year. That is especially true this year as the field expands to 68. After I read them, I start compiling my list of teams I think are in consideration. From there, I start to pick the 68 teams that I think will make it, before ultimately seeding the teams and placing them in the bracket. Now normally, I don't put them in a bracket until 2 weeks before Selection Sunday. But I am getting better and faster at this process that I have my 2nd bracket done already!

My other big ground rule is that I vow to not look at any other website (ESPN, SI, Fox Sports, etc...) and check their bracket predictions. Trust me, it's hard but I will not look until my final bracket is done. I do this so that my work is my work. I have no temptation to cheat off someone else or get ideas from someone else when I feel lazy. Now I will compare with friends' predictions so if you would like to join me in my quest, please do so!

So there you go. I will be posting often, especially as we get closer to Selection Sunday, when I will post daily. Comments are always welcome, especially if it is to correct a glaring error.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: This group is for teams that whether they win their conference tournament or not, are going to receive a bid to the tournament. With Selection Sunday 3 weeks away, this list may seem short but it needs to be. I do my best to not move teams in this category. If you're a lock, you are a LOCK. As the games go on, you will see teams added to this list. But for now, this is the list and in no particular order. It kind of goes by conference now but as teams get added, they will just go to the end of this list.

LOCKS (25): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

AUTOS: This group is for those teams that will receive their bid by winning their conference tournament. Now this is a tough one to predict as I clearly do not have knowledge of who is going to ultimately win the smaller conferences' tournaments. So what I do normally is just go with the team with the best record in the conference when I make a bracket. Once the conference tournaments get going, this will change a ton as favorites fall. Some will move to the AT-LARGE section, others will stay in the BUBBLE section, and others will never be seen again.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (23): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - George Mason, Conference USA - UTEP, Horizon - Cleveland State, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Fairfield, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Missouri State, Northeast -Long Island, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Charleston, Southland - McNeese State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic, WAC - Utah State, WCC -St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: This group is obviously for the teams I think are going to make the field by earning an AT-LARGE bid. This is in order but beware, these will fluctuate quite often as I continue to get a handle on these teams. Again, these are in order from feeling safe to not feeling so safe. Also, remember the last 4 teams in this category will be playing in the 2 "First Four" games to earn a spot in the newly-named second round.

AT-LARGE (20): West Virginia, UNLV, Illinois, Washington, Cincinnati, Old Dominion, Minnesota, UCLA, Georgia, Kansas State, Florida State, Michigan State, Tennessee, Alabama, Memphis, Nebraska, Marquette, Butler, Colorado State, and UAB.

BUBBLE WATCH

Now, the way the BUBBLE works is fairly simple. These are the teams that will be worrying come Selection Sunday. Every team in the AT-LARGE category will be in here as well because well, they are not guaranteed a spot, but instead just in my projected bracket. Some AUTOS will be here as well as they will become BUBBLE teams if they do not win their conference tournaments as they are expected to. Normally, I would put these in order but not this time.

BUBBLE (39): West Virginia, UNLV, Illinois, Washington, Cincinnati, Old Dominion, Minnesota, UCLA, Georgia, Kansas State, Florida State, Michigan State, Tennessee, Alabama, Memphis, Nebraska, Marquette, Butler, Colorado State, UAB, Richmond, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland, Baylor, VCU, Southern Miss, Valparaiso, Wichita State, Gonzaga, Penn State, Dayton, St. Mary's, Utah State, George Mason, Cleveland State, UTEP, and Missouri State.

SEEDING

This is no doubt the hardest part about this process. Seeding the teams is tough because so many team sometimes deserve higher seeds but there are just simply not enough slots. Plus, you have to change some seeds to follow the procedures set forth by the NCAA. And without a full committee, I find myself using RPI, team's record, SOS, and my gut as the real guide to where these teams end up. It has worked well the past 2 years and see nothing changing this year.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), Big 12 (5), MWC (4), ACC (3), Pac-10 (3), C-USA (3), A-10 (2), Colonial (2)

(click on bracket to enlarge)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHEAST vs. SOUTHWEST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

Now in future posts, I will post the records of the teams here and games to watch for the next day or 2 but for now, little tired so not gonna happen right now. For now, just click on the bracket.

That's all for now. I'll update this probably Wednesday or Thursday night after some of these big games that could affect seeding. Hope you enjoyed it and check back soon.

MB