2011 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 25

Welcome back to Barnes Bracketology. It has been a crazy 4 days in college basketball and the bracket has changed because of it. Lots of upsets have shaken up the seedings and who is in and who is out. As usual, I will note the changes in small recaps before each section. I also have included records, the order of the BUBBLE teams, and more to make this the most in-depth post yet.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Not one change in this category. All of these teams are safe and no team in the past week took any real strides into joining this group. so for now, still just 25 strong.

LOCKS (25): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

AUTOS: A couple changes were made in this category, and you'll notice them in the italics. UTEP is out as my projection to win Conference USA after two losses in a row. I replaced them with Memphis. Also out is Hampton in the MEAC, replaced by Bethune Cookman.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (23): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - George Mason, Conference USA - Memphis, Horizon - Cleveland State, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Fairfield, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Bethune Cookman, Missouri Valley - Missouri State, Northeast -Long Island, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Charleston, Southland - McNeese State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic, WAC - Utah State, WCC -St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: This group has no doubt seen some change as lots of teams had some big wins or some bad losses. Among the good wins, Marquette (at UConn), Tennessee (at Vanderbilt), Cincinnati (at Georgetown), Gonzaga (at St. Mary's) and Kansas State (at Nebraska). Road wins versus teams already projected in the tournament are always going to move you up in the bracket. Now among the bad losses, Florida State (at Maryland), Minnesota (vs. Michigan State), and Nebraska (vs. Kansas State). The teams that have been added to this list will be in italics. Again, this list is on order as well.

AT-LARGE (20): UNLV, Cncinnati, Old Dominion, West Virginia, Washington, Kansas State, Michigan State, UCLA, Tennessee, Illinois, Alabama, Marquette, Gonzaga, Florida State, Georgia, Butler, Colorado State, UAB, Virginia Tech, and Minnesota.

BUBBLE WATCH

For the first time, I have put the BUBBLE teams in order. This is important as this is how I see the teams that are fighting for an AT-LARGE spot. This is a very fluid category as teams will move up and down often until Selection Sunday. For instance, Gonzaga went from a BUBBLE to an AT-LARGE with its big win over St. Mary's. On the flipside, a team like Boston College who was close to becoming an AT-LARGE team lost a bad one at home to Miami (FL), putting them near the bottom of this list. If any new teams are added to this list, which is possible, they will be in italics but for now, here is the order. Remember, this can include teams in the AUTO category in the event that they do not win their conference tournament.

BUBBLE (39): George Mason, UNLV, Cincinnati, Utah State, Old Dominion, West Virginia, Washington, Kansas State, Michigan State, UCLA, Tennessee, Memphis, Illinois, St. Mary's, Alabama, Marquette, Gonzaga, Florida State, Georgia, Butler, Colorado State, UAB, Virginia Tech, Cleveland State, Minnesota, Richmond, Southern Miss, Nebraska, Clemson, Maryland, Penn State, Missouri State, Dayton, VCU, Wichita State, Boston College, Baylor, UTEP and Valparaiso.

SEEDING

You will see some changes here for sure. Among the top seeds, the biggest move is Purdue has moved up to a 2 seed while Georgetown has fallen after losing at home to Cincinnati. Florida is up to a 3 seed while UConn falls down. Syracuse also moves up to a 4 seed, replacing Vanderbilt. Other teams have made slight moves up and and down, and they will be reflected below. Also, I made a mistake in scheduling BYU in the East region in my bracket. That is not allowed as BYU cannot play on Sundays due to religious reasons, meaning they must play in places that are Thurs/Sat so they have been moved to the Southeast region. Playing in Denver is still good as that site plays on Thurs/Sat.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), Big 12 (5), MWC (4), ACC (4), Pac-10 (3), C-USA (3), A-10 (2), Colonial (2), Horizon (2), WCC (2)


(click on bracket to enlarge)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHEAST vs. SOUTHWEST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

Team has moved up since last post
Team has moved down since last post

EAST REGION - Newark
#1 Ohio State (26-2) vs. #16 Bethune-Cookman (17-11)/Murray State (22-7) - Cleveland
#2 Notre Dame (22-5) vs. #15 Fairfield (22-5) - Chicago
#3 Florida (22-5) vs. #14 Vermont (22-6) - Tampa
#4 Louisville (21-7) vs. #13 Harvard (20-4) - Tucson
#5 North Carolina (21-6) vs. #12 Missouri State (22-7) - Tucson
#6 Missouri (22-6) vs. #11 Marquette (17-11) - Tampa
#7 Temple (21-6) vs. #10 Illinois (17-11) - Chicago
#8 Washington (19-8) vs. #9 Kansas State (19-9) - Cleveland

SOUTHEAST REGION - New Orleans
#1 Pittsburgh (25-3) vs. #16 McNeese State (17-9)/Texas Southern (15-10) - Cleveland
#2 Purdue (23-5) vs. #15 Long Island (23-5) - Chicago
#3 BYU (26-2) vs. #14 Coastal Carolina (25-4) - Denver
#4 Arizona (23-5) vs. #13 Belmont (26-4) - Denver
#5 Texas A&M (22-5) vs. #12 Georgia (18-9) - Denver
#6 St. John's (18-9) vs. #11 Florida State (19-8) - Denver
#7 George Mason (24-5) vs. #10 St. Mary's (22-7) - Chicago
#8 Utah State (25-3) vs. #9 Michigan State (16-11) - Cleveland

SOUTHWEST REGION - San Antonio
#1 Texas (24-4) vs. #16 Long Beach State (18-10) - Tulsa
#2 San Diego State (27-1) vs. #15 Bucknell (21-8) - Tucson
#3 Wisconsin (21-6) vs. #14 Charleston (22-8) - Washington D.C.
#4 Syracuse (23-6) vs. #13 Cleveland State (23-7) - Tampa
#5 Kentucky (19-8) vs. #12 UAB (19-7)/Virginia Tech (18-8) - Tampa
#6 Villanova (21-7) vs. #11 Gonzaga (20-9) - Washington D.C.
#7 Cincinnati (22-6) vs. #10 Alabama (19-8) - Tucson
#8 Old Dominion (23-6) vs. #9 UCLA (20-8) - Tulsa

WEST REGION - Anaheim
#1 Duke (26-2) vs. #16 Montana (20-8) - Charlotte
#2 Kansas (26-2) vs. #15 Florida Atlantic (20-9) - Tulsa
#3 Georgetown (21-7) vs. #14 Kent State (19-9) - Charlotte
#4 UConn (20-7) vs. #13 Oakland (21-9) - Washington D.C.
#5 Vanderbilt (20-7) vs. #12 Butler (20-9) - Washington D.C.
#6 Xavier (21-6) vs. #11 Colorado State (18-9)/Minnesota (17-10) - Charlotte
#7 UNLV (21-7) vs. #10 Tennessee (17-11) - Tulsa
#8 West Virginia (17-10) vs. #9 Memphis (21-7) - Charlotte

GAMES TO WATCH

FRIDAY
Harvard at Brown - Brown is the only team to hand Princeton a loss in the Ivy League this season. Could they do the same to Harvard?
Cornell at Princeton - With the regular season determining who gets the automatic bid for the league, Princeton can't afford a slip-up against the Big Red.

SATURDAY
Duke at Virginia Tech - Duke is firmly in. VT is anything but. A win here would do wonders for their chances.
BYU at San Diego State - Game of the weekend that no one knows about. Winner here is all but guaranteed a 2 seed and keeps hope alive for a 1 seed.
Arizona at UCLA - Zona just lost a bad one at USC. This may be the perfect time for UCLA to pull off the upset that gets them that much closer to locking up their spot.
Syracuse at Georgetown - This one is all about seeding. Georgetown needs to stop the bleeding while Syracuse is trending up.
Florida at Kentucky - It's not impossible for Florida to grab a 2 seed, especially with a quality road win in Lexington.
St. John's at Villanova - The Red Storm are looking to move up yet another seed line. Nova is trying to stop their slide down.
Texas A&M at Baylor - Baylor is getting near that territory of needing to win every game left. This would be huge for them.
Missouri at Kansas State - Missouri is awful on the road. Perfect time for Kansas State to pull off another upset win at home and get another Top-50 RPI victory.
Wichita State at Missouri State - Could be a dreaded "elimination game" with these two. One should get the automatic bid. The other probably ends up on the outside looking in.
Memphis at UTEP - UTEP lost 2 bad games this week. For bubble chances, they need this one. Memphis looks better with this road win as well.
Michigan at Minnesota - Minnesota is falling fast. A win at home against UM must happen or expect them to have to make a deep run in the conference tournament again.

SUNDAY
Pittsburgh at Louisville - The Panthers are a 1 seed now. They may not be with a loss at Louisville, who is barely hanging on to their 4 seed.
Purdue at Michigan State - Purdue is a solid 2 seed now but a loss at an unranked MSU team would hurt. MSU really adds to the resume with this upset win at home.
UConn at Cincinnati - I'm not afraid to say it. If Cincinnati wins this game, they are a LOCK to make the tournament. Too many good wins to leave them out.
Xavier at Dayton - Dayton is hanging on by a thread as a BUBBLE. If they want to serious contenders for an AT-LARGE, this is an upset they must have.

That's all for now. Hope this post satisfied all your bracketology needs. It better, cause it took me forever to do. Next post will come Monday after this weekend's games. Until then, enjoy the basketball this weekend.

MB

MB