2011 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 7th

Sorry for the tardiness of this post. Been a busy weekend to say the least. That includes in college basketball as Championship week gets going. That means upsets abound and bubble bursting. For me, that means constant shuffling of teams in the bracket. It's not easy to keep changing it up, but it is a fun challenge to see just where teams can go after all these upsets.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I added 3 more teams to this category after the weekend. Florids State avoided an embarassing loss against NC State, giving them 21 wins and a good feeling come Selection Sunday. UAB also avoided an upset, beating East Carolina. The Blazers are now 22-7, won the Conference-USA regular season title and have an RPI of 28, better than the likes of Villanova, Texas A&M and Missouri. Finally, Utah State joins this list after also avoiding a bad loss versus Louisiana Tech. The Aggies are 28-3 on the season and have an RPI of 18. That is enough for me to make them a LOCK, no matter what happens in the WAC tournament.

LOCKS (36): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, George Mason, Old Dominion, Kansas State, UNLV, UCLA, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Washington, Florida State, UAB, and Utah State.

AUTOS: It may seem shocking but we actually have changes to this category. Some of the teams were made LOCKS, lowering the number here from 22 to 20. Also, some teams that I had projected to win the conference tournament lost, causing me to replace them. And finally, others I projected lost and the tournament crowned a champion, meaning that team has clinched its bid.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (20): America East - Boston Univerity, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Horizon - Butler, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Bethune Cookman, Missouri Valley - Indiana State, Northeast - Long Island, Ohio Valley - Morehead State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Charleston, Southland - McNeese State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WCC -St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: This group has some changes again, as teams continue to lose, not win. At a time when winning is so important, many of the BUBBLE teams are falling, so teams like Boston College, Michigan and Richmond who keep winning find themselves feeling a lot better about their chances than 3 weeks ago.

Again, these are in order from most safe to least safe. I would say the top half of this group is in fairly good shape, unless they completely fall apart. The bottom half though needs to keep winning to feel good at all.

AT-LARGE (12): Illinois, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Richmond, Marquette, Boston College, Michigan, Michigan State, Georgia, Alabama, Colorado and Virginia Tech.

BUBBLE WATCH

In my 3 years of doing Barnes Bracketology, this is by far the worst group of BUBBLE teams. And of course, this comes when the field is increased to 68. With that said, these teams are playing this week for an invite and opportunity to play for the National Championship. Some of these teams are done for the season (Cleveland State, Missouri State) and cannot improve their resume. Others though can do plenty of good or harm to their chances.

BUBBLE (27): Illinois, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Richmond, Butler, Marquette, St. Mary's, Boston College, Michigan, Michigan State, Georgia, Alabama, Colorado, Virginia Tech, Memphis, Missouri State, Clemson, Nebraska, VCU, Colorado State, USC, Baylor, Cleveland State, UTEP, Penn State, Washington State, and Marshall.

SEEDING

The seeding didn't get shaken up as much as I thought it would when I started. North Carolina narrowly misses being a 2 seed, as I favor Texas as of now. Notre Dame also comes up just short of a 1 seed to Duke. Other than that, the biggest thing I did is change the other play-in game to a 12 seed from a 13 seed as in previous brackets. That was an anticpated change as more teams steal bids in mid-major conference tournaments.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), ACC (5), Big 12 (5), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), WCC (2)


(Click on bracket to enlarge)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHWEST vs. SOUTHEAST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

Team has moved up since last post
Team has moved down since last post

EAST REGION - Newark
#1 Ohio State (29-2) vs. #16 Boston University (20-13) - Cleveland
#2 Texas (25-6) vs. #15 Montana (20-9)- Tulsa
#3 San Diego State (29-2) vs. #14 Charleston (24-9) - Tucson
#4 Georgetown (21-9) vs. #13 Belmont (30-4) - Tucson
#5 Arizona (25-6) vs. #12 Colorado (19-12)/Alabama (20-10) - Tucson
#6 West Virginia (20-10) vs. #11 Michigan (19-12) - Tucson
#7 Cincinnati (24-7) vs. #10 Tennessee (18-13) - Tulsa
#8 George Mason (26-6) vs. #9 UAB (22-7) - Cleveland

SOUTHWEST REGION - San Antonio
#1 Kansas (29-2) vs. #16 Texas Southern (18-11)/Bethune-Cookman (20-11) - Tulsa
#2 Purdue (25-6) vs. #15 Bucknell (24-8) - Chicago
#3 North Carolina (24-6) vs. #14 Indiana State (20-13) - Charlotte
#4 Syracuse (25-6) vs. #13 Morehead State (24-9) - Denver
#5 Vanderbilt (21-9) vs. #12 Boston College(19-11) - Denver
#6 Xavier (24-6) vs. #11 Marquette (18-13) - Charlotte
#7 UConn (21-9) vs. #10 Gonzaga (23-9) - Chicago
#8 Old Dominion (26-6) vs. #9 Washington (20-10) - Tulsa

SOUTHEAST REGION - New Orleans
#1 Pittsburgh (27-4) vs. #16 McNeese State (19-10)/Middle Tennessee (16-15) - Cleveland
#2 BYU (28-3) vs. #15 Long Beach State (20-10) - Denver
#3 Wisconsin (23-7) vs. #14 Kent State (21-10) - Washington D.C.
#4 Kentucky (22-8) vs. #13 Princeton (23-6) - Tampa
#5 Kansas State (22-9) vs. #12 Michigan State (17-13) - Tampa
#6 St. John's (20-10) vs. #11 Butler (22-9) - Washington D.C.
#7 Missouri (22-9) vs. #10 Richmond (24-7) - Denver
#8 UCLA (22-9) vs. #9 Florida State (21-9) - Cleveland

WEST REGION - Anaheim
#1 Duke (27-4) vs. #16 UNC-Asheville (19-13) - Charlotte
#2 Notre Dame (25-5) vs. #15 Long Island (26-5) - Chicago
#3 Florida (24-6) vs. #14 Iona (22-10) - Tampa
#4 Louisville (23-8) vs. #13 Oakland (23-9) - Washington D.C.
#5 Texas A&M (23-7) vs. #12 Virginia Tech (19-10)/Georgia (20-10) - Washington D.C.
#6 Temple (24-6) vs. #11 St. Mary's (24-7) - Tampa
#7 UNLV (23-7) vs. #10 Illinois (19-12) - Chicago
#8 Villanova (21-10) vs. #9 Utah State (28-3) - Charlotte

GAMES TO WATCH

MONDAY
VCU vs. Old Dominion (Colonial Championship) - This is a big games for the BUBBLE teams. ODU is in so if VCU wins, it steals a bid.
Iona vs. St. Peters (MAAC Championship) - Iona is the favorite. That's all I really have to say.
Wofford vs. Charleston (SoCon Championship) - Wofford reached the Big Dance a season ago. It's been a while for the College of Charleston.
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's (West Coast Championship) - Winner can bypass the nail-biting on Selection Sunday. Loser not so lucky.

TUESDAY
Butler vs. UW-Milwaukee (Horizon Championship) - This also could be a big-stealer as Butler may still get in without winning the tourney title.
Sun Belt Championship (Teams TBD) - Both the top seeds in each division are out so the winner of this game is pretty much guaranteed to begin their tournament in Dayton.
Summit Championship (Teams TBD) - Oakland is the clear favorite to win this tournament and could be a Cinderella.
Princeton at Pennsylvania - A win by Penn gives Harvard the automatic bid. A win by Princeton forces a one-game playoff for the bid.
Providence vs. Marquette - I think the Golden Eagles will make the tourney but losing here really makes it tough to argue they deserve to go ahead of teams who finished strong.

Alright, that's all I have for now. Expect an update after Tuesday's games. It will probably be a BUBBLE special instead of a full post as there aren't a lot of games here that will affect seeding.. Of course, feel free to leave comments here on the blog or on Facebook or on my Twitter.

MB