(changes in italics)
LOCKS: Time to put Missouri in this field. They avoided the bad loss bug vs. LSU and have enough quality wins to be included here. Same can be said for VCU, who throttled Butler Saturday. Also, let's throw in Creighton. They beat Wichita State to win the Missouri Valley regular season title outright. I think there's room for both of them comfortably in the field. That's put the number up to 31 and I have 2-4 more teams that are very close to joining, if they can just win their midweek game.
LOCKS (31): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Wisconsin, Butler, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Oregon, San Diego State, UNLV, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Saint Louis, Wichita State, UCLA, Missouri, VCU, Creighton
AUTOS: Every Sunday, I'll take a look at this group a little closer to see if anything really needs to be change. This week, that's just Niagara in the MAAC.
Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold
AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, C-USA - Memphis, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Niagara, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC - Louisiana Tech
AT-LARGE: Gotta give some love to Boise State, who did what BUBBLE teams need to go to get into this group: defend homecourt against quality teams. They did just that, beating Colorado State by 13. Welcome to the field Broncos. But as we welcome them, we say goodbye to Tennessee, who lost to Georgia. They lost both games to the Dawgs and well, that's not gonna cut it.
These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton
These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton
AT-LARGE (16): Illinois, North Carolina, California, NC State, Colorado, Minnesota, Colorado State, Kentucky, Saint Mary's, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Temple, La Salle, Boise State, Villanova, Virginia
BUBBLE WATCH
BUBBLE: I cannot figure out Virginia. Beat Duke and then lose at Boston College. Really?!? They stay in my field but barely. But it's those kinds of losses that other BUBBLE teams cannot afford. Just ask Indiana State and Charlotte who have seen their bubble burst after bad losses. Alabama came close to a big win vs. Florida but came up short so they still lag behind. Other losses came from Arizona State (to USC), Ole Miss (to a terrible Miss. State team), Baylor (in kick-in-the-gut fashion to Kansas State), and St. John's (to Providence). Props to Arkansas for a good win vs. Kentucky to move up but still on the outside looking in. And finally, Akron had been rolling and in good shape for an AT-LARGE if they needed it. Not anymore after losing badly at Buffalo.
These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.
BUBBLE (31): Illinois, Memphis, North Carolina, California, NC State, Colorado, Minnesota, Colorado State, Kentucky, Saint Mary's, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Temple, La Salle, Boise State, Akron, Villanova, Virginia, Tennessee, Baylor, Maryland, Arkansas, Belmont, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Arizona State, Alabama, Ole Miss, Middle Tennessee, St. John's, BYU
These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.
BUBBLE (31): Illinois, Memphis, North Carolina, California, NC State, Colorado, Minnesota, Colorado State, Kentucky, Saint Mary's, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Temple, La Salle, Boise State, Akron, Villanova, Virginia, Tennessee, Baylor, Maryland, Arkansas, Belmont, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Arizona State, Alabama, Ole Miss, Middle Tennessee, St. John's, BYU
SEEDING
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (5), ACC (5), A-10 (5), MWC (5), Pac-12 (5), SEC (3), MVC (2), WCC (2)
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (5), ACC (5), A-10 (5), MWC (5), Pac-12 (5), SEC (3), MVC (2), WCC (2)
(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs.SOUTH
EAST vs. WEST
MONDAY
Cincinnati at Louisville - I like to think that the Bearcats in in good shape but their recent slide convinces me otherwise. The Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in the nation and marching toward a 1 seed.
TUESDAY
Ohio State at Indiana - With every win, the Buckeyes seed and more importantly, chances of playing cloe to Columbus get better. Indiana is still fighting for that #1 overall seed.
Memphis at UTEP - If Memphis wins this road game, I'll make them a LOCK finally. Still seems odd considering their lack of quality victories.
St. John's at Notre Dame - Red Storm gotta have this one. Not many chances left before the Big East tourney.
Arkansas at Missouri - Arkansas has been awful at road games. Probably why they aren't projected in my field. Get this one and their case gets a little better.
Southern Miss at Marshall - Marshall has underperformed this year so the last thing Southern Miss can do is underperform in Huntington and see their AT-LARGE chances vanish.
Miami (OH) at Akron - Was that Buffalo loss just a one-time lapse for the Zips? They better hope so because another loss ends any talk of an AT-LARGE bid.
Illinois at Iowa - Iowa could get back into the picture with this win but would still need a lot of work. Illinois can lock up their spot with a victory.
Alabama at Ole Miss - Plain and simple. This is an elimination game. Winner stays a BUBBLE team. Loser can start making plans on winning the SEC tourney.
Boise State at UNLV - Gonna be hard for the Broncos to win this one but if they do, their resume gets a ton better and would make it hard to argue they don't deserve a spot.
WEDNESDAY
Michigan at Purdue - Purdue has shown they can upset a big boy. Michigan has shown they can lose to the little tikes. Watch this one.
Georgetown at Villanova- The Hoyas are no doubt the favorite but beware a desperate 'Nova team playing for their tourney lives at home in Philly.
Oklahoma State at Iowa State - The Cyclones are worthy of a spot in the field when I see them with my eyes. On paper though, their case is not that strong. Win here goes a long way.
North Carolina at Maryland - North Carolina is rounding into form at the right time. Maryland is still an enigma. Better figure it out for this one though to pad their mediocre resume.
Temple at Fordham - My good friend Tanner who works with Temple told me this one will be close. I trust his opinion. If Temple loses, look for them to stay in but move into the "First Four".
George Washington at La Salle - La Salle is doing everything right in avoiding the terrible loss. They just aren't playing any meaningful games. Win this one and stay solid.
Tennessee at Auburn - Auburn is awful so needless to say, the Vols need to not only win but look impressive to get back in the good graces of the committee and bracketologists.
Colorado State at Wyoming- The Rams are a great team playing in a great conference. I don't blame them for their quality losses, especially on the road. Get this one, they may be a LOCK.
Stanford at California - Cal is coming off a great win vs. Colorado. They are playing great ball lately and with this win, are in really good shape come Selection Sunday.
THURSDAY
Wisconsin at Michigan State - This game not only has conference title implications but seeding implications in the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments.
Oregon at Colorado - If the Buffaloes pull off this victory, I'm locking them into my projected field. They have done well so far and this one would be the icing on the cake.
Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State - You saw what happened to Akron? These games on the road are not easy for undefeated teams in a conference. Good luck La Tech.
Virginia at Florida State - After seeing what UNC did to FSU over the weekend, UVA needs to win this game by double digits at least....and I don't care if it's on the road.
Next update after Thursday's games. Enjoy the games this weekend and check back Thursday morning/afternoon for the latest projections and prognostications!
MB
MIDWEST vs.SOUTH
EAST vs. WEST
**Indiana is the overall top seed
GAMES TO WATCH
MONDAY
Cincinnati at Louisville - I like to think that the Bearcats in in good shape but their recent slide convinces me otherwise. The Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in the nation and marching toward a 1 seed.
Baylor at Texas - One of those must-have games for the Bears, who continue to move further and further away from the AT-LARGE discussion.
TUESDAY
Ohio State at Indiana - With every win, the Buckeyes seed and more importantly, chances of playing cloe to Columbus get better. Indiana is still fighting for that #1 overall seed.
Memphis at UTEP - If Memphis wins this road game, I'll make them a LOCK finally. Still seems odd considering their lack of quality victories.
St. John's at Notre Dame - Red Storm gotta have this one. Not many chances left before the Big East tourney.
Arkansas at Missouri - Arkansas has been awful at road games. Probably why they aren't projected in my field. Get this one and their case gets a little better.
Southern Miss at Marshall - Marshall has underperformed this year so the last thing Southern Miss can do is underperform in Huntington and see their AT-LARGE chances vanish.
Miami (OH) at Akron - Was that Buffalo loss just a one-time lapse for the Zips? They better hope so because another loss ends any talk of an AT-LARGE bid.
Illinois at Iowa - Iowa could get back into the picture with this win but would still need a lot of work. Illinois can lock up their spot with a victory.
Alabama at Ole Miss - Plain and simple. This is an elimination game. Winner stays a BUBBLE team. Loser can start making plans on winning the SEC tourney.
Boise State at UNLV - Gonna be hard for the Broncos to win this one but if they do, their resume gets a ton better and would make it hard to argue they don't deserve a spot.
WEDNESDAY
Michigan at Purdue - Purdue has shown they can upset a big boy. Michigan has shown they can lose to the little tikes. Watch this one.
Georgetown at Villanova- The Hoyas are no doubt the favorite but beware a desperate 'Nova team playing for their tourney lives at home in Philly.
Oklahoma State at Iowa State - The Cyclones are worthy of a spot in the field when I see them with my eyes. On paper though, their case is not that strong. Win here goes a long way.
North Carolina at Maryland - North Carolina is rounding into form at the right time. Maryland is still an enigma. Better figure it out for this one though to pad their mediocre resume.
Temple at Fordham - My good friend Tanner who works with Temple told me this one will be close. I trust his opinion. If Temple loses, look for them to stay in but move into the "First Four".
George Washington at La Salle - La Salle is doing everything right in avoiding the terrible loss. They just aren't playing any meaningful games. Win this one and stay solid.
Tennessee at Auburn - Auburn is awful so needless to say, the Vols need to not only win but look impressive to get back in the good graces of the committee and bracketologists.
Colorado State at Wyoming- The Rams are a great team playing in a great conference. I don't blame them for their quality losses, especially on the road. Get this one, they may be a LOCK.
Stanford at California - Cal is coming off a great win vs. Colorado. They are playing great ball lately and with this win, are in really good shape come Selection Sunday.
THURSDAY
Wisconsin at Michigan State - This game not only has conference title implications but seeding implications in the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments.
Oregon at Colorado - If the Buffaloes pull off this victory, I'm locking them into my projected field. They have done well so far and this one would be the icing on the cake.
Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State - You saw what happened to Akron? These games on the road are not easy for undefeated teams in a conference. Good luck La Tech.
Virginia at Florida State - After seeing what UNC did to FSU over the weekend, UVA needs to win this game by double digits at least....and I don't care if it's on the road.
Next update after Thursday's games. Enjoy the games this weekend and check back Thursday morning/afternoon for the latest projections and prognostications!
MB
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