2013 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 7

These next 9 days or so are what I like to call the crazy season, because some crazy things are going to happen. That's what happens when teams are playing their final home games or possibly their final game of the season. There's more desperation and in turn, more effort form teams that failed to show it in the weeks and months before. So while some losses may look horrible, it's important to keep in mind the complete body of work. Makes for some fascinating television though doesn't it?

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: It's about that time where I normally put a ton of teams in because well, they're safer than a lot of others making them all but LOCKS to get in. Last post, I put in 3 teams. Today, even more as I add in 7 squads. North Carolina earned theirs with a 7-game win streak. Memphis avoided the bad loss after their loss at Xavier. Colorado throttled Oregon to seal the deal. NC State has been solid not spectacular all year. Same can be said for Colorado State. Illinois and California get in a bit by default as they both lost this week but due to the amount of BUBBLE teams that fell, those two should be just fine.

And for the first time, I will put these in order of how I see them.

LOCKS (38): Duke, Gonzaga, Indiana, Kansas, Louisville, Michigan, Georgetown, Miami (FL), Michigan State, Florida, New Mexico, Ohio State, Kansas State, Marquette, Syracuse, Arizona, Oklahoma State, UNLV, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Butler, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, San Diego State, Missouri, North Carolina, Saint Louis, UCLA, Oregon, VCU, Memphis, Colorado, NC State, Colorado State, Illinois, Creighton, California, Wichita State


AUTOS: The conference tournaments have begun expect a lot of shifting in this group as top teams get upset. Also, watch out for conferences like the Missouri Valley or Conference-USA to be bid stealers. In other words, a team outside of the one they have represented in the LOCKS category winning the tournament, effectively, stealing a bid from one of the many BUBBLE teams. It will happen. Just a matter of who and how many.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Niagara, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC - Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Virginia did themselves no favor (again) by losing at Florida State. So yet again, they are out of this group. We welcome back Tennessee who avoided what would have been an embarrassing loss to Auburn. Great win by Villanova to help its cause, taking down a hot Georgetown team. Same for Iowa State, who took care of business at home vs. Oklahoma State. Kentucky and Cincinnati though continue to falter and are in a bit of trouble.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (10): Minnesota, Saint Mary's, Iowa State, Temple, Villanova, La Salle, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Boise State, Tennessee

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: I dropped Akron a bit on my BUBBLE with the loss of PG Alex Abreu to legal issues. If he returns, I will re-think my position. But the Zips should just plan on winning the MAC tourney anyways. Same can be said for a lot of BUBBLE teams who failed to get the job done this week. Baylor, Maryland, Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss all lost game they desperately needed. Their pain is someone's else gain though. I did add Iowa, Providence and Xavier to this list. They are still longshots to get in but impressive wins over the past 2-3 weeks merits their inclusion. Still time to jet up this list.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (26): Minnesota, Saint Mary's, Iowa State, Temple, Villanova, La Salle, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Boise State, Tennessee, Akron, Virginia, Maryland, Arkansas, Belmont, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Baylor, Alabama, Middle Tennessee, Xavier, Iowa, Providence, Southern Miss, BYU, Louisiana Tech

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (5), A-10 (5), MWC (5), Pac-12 (5), ACC (4), SEC (4), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs.SOUTH
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Duke is the overall top seed

Next update after Sunday's games. And then, the updates will become much more frequent. Look for a post on Tuesday, and then go daily from Thursday to Sunday. And if I get time, I'll provide a Bubble Watch special so you can see the teams vying for those final few spots and why it's so hard picking any of them to get in.

MB