2013 Barnes Bracketology: Bubble Watch

So what is it going to take for your favorite team to get off the bubble this week? That is certainly not a question one wants posed to them just days before Selection Sunday but it's the case for a dozen or so teams who have work to do in conference tournaments to help their case.


So in lieu of a full bracket projection, I will let you in on some of what makes my job so hard. I will break down the numbers on 14 bubble teams fighting for what I think is 4 spots.

Much like me, you cane make a decision on the 4 most worthy teams. Much of it comes down to your criteria of "most worthy". Is it their RPI? Or is it their strength of schedule (SOS)? How about their record away from home? Or maybe it's about how they're playing right now?

You be the judge. Here are the teams (in alphabetical order):

Alabama (20-11)
RPI: 61  SOS: 91  Non-Conference SOS: 82
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 1-4  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-7
Road W-L: 4-8  Last 12 Games: 8-4
Key Wins: Kentucky, Villanova*, Tennessee, Arkansas
Key Losses: Tulane, at Auburn, Dayton, Mercer, at Tennessee, at LSU, at Ole Miss 
Breakdown: The wins are solid are the RPI and SOS aren't terrible. But it just looks like an NIT resume. Take away a few of those bad losses and this team would be in much better shape. 

Arizona State (20-11)
RPI: 91  SOS: 124  Non-Conference SOS: 284
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-4  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-8
Road W-L: 4-6  Last 12 Games:5-7
Key Wins: Colorado (x 2), UCLA, California, Arkansas*
Key Losses: DePaul, at Utah, at USC, Washington (x 2), Stanford
Breakdown: The wins are good and there's not a plethora of bad losses. The big problem is that ASU didn't really play anyone in the non-conference. It inflates the win number but definitely not the RPI number, which is laughable for an at-large selection.



Arkansas (19-12)
RPI: 77  SOS: 82  Non-Conference SOS: 128
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-10
Road W-L: 1-9  Last 12 Games:7-5
Key Wins: Oklahoma, Florida, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee
Key Losses: at South Carolina, at Vanderbilt, Arizona State*, at Texas A&M, at Ole Miss, at Alabama, at LSU
Breakdown: They've beaten the best in the SEC. But they've also lost to some of the worst. The SOS is just okay but the record against the top 50 is solid. The red flag is the road record. Just one win on the road all season just smells like an unworthy team.

Baylor (18-13)
RPI: 62  SOS: 21  Non-Conference SOS: 47
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 3-10  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-10
Road W-L: 4-7  Last 12 Games: 4-8
Key Wins: at Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Kansas
Key Losses: Northwestern, at Texas, Charleston
Breakdown: 13 losses is a lot but considering 10 of them came from teams that will no doubt be in the tournament, it's not that bad. The SOS, in and out of conference, is solid. But again, 13 losses is a lot. Oh and ending the regular season 4-8 is doing them no favors either.

Iowa (20-11)
RPI: 76  SOS: 126  Non-Conference SOS: 312
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-8  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-8
Road W-L: 2-8  Last 12 Games: 7-5
Key Wins: Iowa State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois
Key Losses: at Virginia Tech, at Nebraska, at Purdue
Breakdown: If you look at those key wins, you're impressed. And the lack of bad losses is good too. But 312nd in non-conference SOS? Yeah, that's just awful. Most Big Ten teams have a SOS in the top 50. But Iowa's languishes at 126 because they loaded up on cupcakes. May keep them out of the dance.

Kentucky (21-10)
RPI: 50  SOS: 66  Non-Conference SOS: 70
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-4  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-9
Road W-L: 4-7  Last 12 Games: 8-4
Key Wins: Missouri, Florida, Tennessee
Key Losses: Georgia, Texas A&M, at Arkansas, at Alabama, Baylor
Breakdown: The numbers are good for an at-large. The wins are as well, especially when you consider all 3 came after Nerlens Noel's injury. But it's still a questionable enough resume to keep Wildcats fans on edge.

La Salle (21-8)
RPI: 39  SOS: 87  Non-Conference SOS: 115
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-7
Road W-L: 8-6  Last 12 Games: 9-3
Key Wins: Butler, at VCU, Villanova
Key Losses: Central Conn. St., at Xavier, at Charlotte, UMass, at Bucknell
Breakdown: They played in one of the toughest conferences, hence their great RPI number. And beating VCU on the road is great. The losses are troublesome but a winning road record, a quality finish to the regular season and near .500 record vs. the top-100 is positive news.

Maryland (20-11)
RPI: 83  SOS: 114  Non-Conference SOS: 296
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-5  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 3-9
Road W-L: 3-7  Last 12 Games: 5-7
Key Wins: NC State, Duke
Key Losses: Florida State (x 2), Virginia (x 2), at Boston College, at Georgia Tech
Breakdown: Remember who great that Maryland win over Duke was? Terps fans hope the committee does because besides their win at NC State, that's it. They did not fare well in conference and out of conference, they played next to no one.

Ole Miss (23-8)
RPI: 56  SOS: 151  Non-Conference SOS: 286
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 1-4  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-6
Road W-L: 6-6  Last 12 Games: 6-6
Key Wins: Missouri, Tennessee (x 2), Arkansas, Alabama
Key Losses: at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, at Texas A&M, at Indiana State
Breakdown: Ole Miss had such a great start to the season but has limped to the finish. Part of the reason for the great start was their lack of competition. Add that nugget to the fact that the SEC is weak and you get some awful numbers for the Rebels.

Southern Miss (23-8)
RPI: 36  SOS: 79  Non-Conference SOS: 71
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 0-5  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-7
Road W-L: 9-6  Last 12 Games: 8-4
Key Wins: None
Key Losses: at Marshall, at New Mexico State, at UCF
Breakdown: Another year, another great RPI number for Southern Miss. So why are they on the bubble? Look at that key win row. It's empty because they have zero wins against teams that are surely making the tournament. The numbers are deceiving. The lack of quality wins is not.

Villanova (18-12)
RPI: 51  SOS: 19  Non-Conference SOS: 151
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 5-7  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-10
Road W-L: 6-7  Last 12 Games: 7-5
Key Wins: Louisville, Syracuse, at UConn, Marquette, Georgetown
Key Losses: Columbia, at Seton Hall, Providence (x 2), Alabama*
Breakdown: The overall record does not look good but those key wins look great. Those alone may get 'Nova in the field. Add in a quality road record and the resume looks good. The non-conference schedule was not great but when you play in the Big East, you get a pass.

Virginia (21-10)
RPI: 68  SOS: 132  Non-Conference SOS: 302
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-2  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 8-3
Road W-L: 3-8  Last 12 Games: 7-5
Key Wins: at Wisconsin, North Carolina, NC State, Duke, Tennessee, Maryland (x 2)
Key Losses: at George Mason, Old Dominion*, at Wake Forest, at Clemson, Delaware, at Georgia Tech, at Boston College, at Florida State
Breakdown: The biggest enigma on this list. The key wins are flat out impressive. I see those and I put that team in the field. But that same team has those key losses. Just does make sense. Also, it's one thing to schedule so poorly in the non-conference. It's another thing to lose to some of those scrubs. 8-3 vs. the top 100. 4-2 vs. the top 50. I just can't figure them out.

Xavier (17-13)
RPI: 80  SOS: 51  Non-Conference SOS: 109
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 5-3  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-8
Road W-L: 4-7  Last 12 Games: 6-6
Key Wins: Butler, Temple, La Salle, Memphis, Saint Louis
Key Losses: Wofford, at Wake Forest, Pacific, Vanderbilt, at Dayton, at Richmond, UMass, at St. Joseph's, at Charlotte, at Tennessee
Breakdown: At 17-13, they should not even be considered you'd think. But those 5 keys win merit consideration. The losses though almost take that consideration away. The RPI number is 80 is not good bu the 5-3 record vs. the top 50 is. We shall see.