2013 Barnes Bracketology - RECAP

Another year of Barnes Bracketology has come and gone and I must say, I am relieved. My nights have freed up a bit and I no longer look at RPI and SOS numbers. I'm also satisfied with the job I did in the 7 (!) weeks. As usual, I like to put up a recap post with my thoughts on my bracket and thoughts on the actual bracket.

First, take a look at the goals that I give myself when I do this.

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region
2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots
3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct
4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup

So how did I do? Let's compare the brackets. First, here was my final bracket:

And here is the 2013 NCAA Bracket:

So this is how I did with my goals.

1. I nailed the top 4 seeds and placed them in the correct regions. I also correctly picked Louisville as the overall number one seed.
2. I did not satisfy this goal though I think that's more of on the committee than me. I nailed 65 teams within 2 spots of their seed. And of the 65, I got 45 exactly right, including every 1, 15 and 16 seed. The 3 teams I had off by 2 spots or more were Villanova, California and Oregon.
3. I picked 12 of the 16 second/third round locations correctly. I missed New Mexico playing in Salt Lake (had them in Austin, which I changed late in the process), Marquette in Lexington (thought they would be a 5 seed and irrelevant in the discussion), Florida in Austin (had them in Lexington instead), and Saint Louis in San Jose (had them as a 5 seed).
4. Last year, I picked 3 matchups on the nose. This year, not so lucky. But I came close often. When you pick 45 of the 68 teams on their exact seed line, all it takes is the committee to move one team and I had an exact match.

As far as the actual bracket, I have some beefs with the committee. I really think they undervalued Oregon. I had them as a 7 seed, which seemed warranted after winning the Pac-12 tournament and finishing second in the regular season standings. How they are seeded lower than Colorado (a 10 seed), I have no idea. I also think Villanova is too high. A 9 seed for a team that was 20-13? No way. Maybe an 11 or better yet, a 12 like I had them but not a 9. I'm okay with the California seeding at 12 (I had them at a 9) but I am SHOCKED they placed the Bears in San Jose, just minutes from their campus. And as if that wasn't enough, they have them playing UNLV, who they already played this season! A big no-no in the NCAA Procedures for creating the bracket. No matter what excuse the committee uses, you can work around that and find a better matchup.

I also do not fully understand why Ohio and Gonzaga are in the same bracket if they were the 4th and 8th ranked teams on their seed list. If you use a true S-Curve to seed the teams, Louisville should get the honor of playing the "weakest" 2-seed. Instead, they get Duke, who some felt could have been a 1-seed. I think that's an error on the committee's part. Beyond that, the bracket looks fine and they did a great job keeping teams close, especially when it comes to the First Four winners, who only have to go to Kansas City or Auburn Hills from Dayton.

Lastly, I know this is what you all care about. I correctly projected 67 of the 68 teams in the tournament. The only one I missed was Middle Tennessee, who was my first one out. They dropped out when Ole Miss won themselves in. I saw where Lunardi went a perfect 68 for 68, including correctly projecting the last 4 teams in. Impressive stuff. But with that said, this was a fairly easy year. The teams that did not make it had so many warts, the final teams in just made sense. You'll notice, there was not much outrage this year from the so-called experts about certain teams missing the dance.

And finally, please remember that this practice in bracketology is not about projected who should be in or out. It's instead trying to predict what the committee will do, which is nearly impossible because you don't know what those members are thinking each year. It can be tedious and tiresome but I love it. Can't wait for next year.

Oh and in case you care, I'm picking Louisville, Ohio State, Kansas and Miami (FL) in my Final Four with Louisville beating Kansas to win it all.

HAPPY MARCH MADNESS!

MB