2013 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 14

 

If you're the kind of person who thinks real upsets and "madness" doesn't happen until after Selection Sunday, you're crazy. Just last night, Nebraska and Utah advanced to their conference tournament quarterfinals. The WAC saw their dominant top 2 seeds fall on the same night. And even crazier, the MEAC saw their top 4 seeds all lose on the same night! And we still have 3 more days of games before the field is revealed!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I was remarking to a friend that I am getting dangerously close to the threshold of LOCKS. I like to keep this group at 40 and leave some wiggle room as we head into the weekend. Well, instead of 40, I'm gonna be at 43 because I am actually adding another. Iowa State beat a good Oklahoma team and considering how strong the Big 12 was, it seems fair the 5th best team gets in, especially with their solid resume. Saint Mary's is still very close to leaving this group.

These are in order of how I see them.

LOCKS (43): Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville, Kansas, Georgetown, Miami (FL), Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida, New Mexico, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Marquette, Arizona, Syracuse, Wisconsin, UNLV, Butler, Notre Dame, UCLA, Saint Louis, Pittsburgh, Memphis, North Carolina, Creighton, VCU, San Diego State, Colorado State, Missouri, NC State, Illinois, Colorado, Oregon, Wichita State,  California, Temple, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Saint Mary's


AUTOS: Thanks to more upsets, we have more changes among this group.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Liberty, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - James Madison, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Ohio, MEAC - Morgan State, Northeast - LIU Brooklyn, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Western Kentucky, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Same group just minus Iowa State that graduated up to LOCK status. The order of the teams stays the same from yesterday despite a loss by Villanova to a very good Louisville team and a win by Tennessee by hapless Mississippi State.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (5): Villanova, Boise State, Kentucky, La Salle, Tennessee

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: And then there were 13. A nice manageable number for the final weekend I think. While we lost 3 teams due to conference tournament losses (Arkansas, Arizona State and Xavier), we welcome back Middle Tennessee who deserves to be here just thanks to their top 30 RPI. Honestly, they should have never left with an RPI that high. They will most likely not get in but to say they are not in the discussion would be wrong.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (13): Villanova, Boise State, Kentucky, La Salle, Tennessee, Virginia, Baylor, Ole Miss, Alabama, Maryland, Iowa, Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (5), A-10 (5), MWC (5), Pac-12 (5), ACC (4), SEC (4), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs.SOUTH
MIDWEST vs. WEST

**Duke is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

NC State vs. Virginia (ACC Quarterfinals)

UTEP vs. Southern Miss (C-USA Semifinals)

Butler vs. La Salle (A-10 Quarterfinals)

Tennessee vs. Alabama (SEC Quarterfinals)

Tulsa vs. Memphis (C-USA Semifinals) - BID STEALER ALERT!

Maryland vs. Duke (ACC Quarterfinals)

Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky (SEC Quarterfinals)

Iowa vs. Michigan State (Big Ten Quarterfinals)

Missouri vs. Ole Miss (SEC Quarterfinals)

Of course, there are a lot more games than this on TV Friday but these are the biggest ones for those BUBBLE teams and how they go is how the bracket will go come Sunday. Also, look out for a number of upsets that may hurt some teams as far as their seeding but for now, the pressure is on those BUBBLE teams to get the job done tomorrow against opponents who are most likely already in the field.

MB