2013 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 13

Championship Week is in full force now and that means it is do or die time for a lot of teams. Whether that "die" is the end of a season or a berth in another postseason tournament depends on the team. regardless, it is not the Big Dance, which of course comes with opportunity to win a national championship. This is no doubt the toughest week for a bracketologist as you try to equate what one tournament loss and win can do for a team in the seeding process.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I'm adding 2 more. Minnesota for its overall solid play during the season. A ton of big wins coupled with a lot of losses. But the big wins should carry them in, especially for a team from the best conference in the NCAA this year. Also, Cincinnati avoided the bad loss vs. Providence in the Big East tourney and I think is safely in. I will say I'm getting nervous about Saint Mary's. I added them to this list and then after further review, don't feel nearly as good about that decision. For now, they will stay.

These are in order of how I see them.

LOCKS (42): Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville, Kansas, Georgetown, Miami (FL), Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida, New Mexico, Marquette, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Syracuse, Wisconsin, UNLV, Butler, Pittsburgh, Saint Louis, UCLA, Notre Dame, Memphis, North Carolina, Creighton, VCU, San Diego State, Colorado State, Missouri, Colorado, NC State, Illinois, Oregon, California, Wichita State, Oklahoma, Temple, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Saint Mary's


AUTOS: As expected, numerous changes in this group as upsets happen in the conference tournaments. It is just nearly impossible to predict how they will end up as even the top seeds lose in the first round.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Liberty, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - James Madison, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Ohio, MEAC - Hampton, Northeast - LIU Brooklyn, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Western Kentucky, WAC - Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Same group just minus two teams that graduated up to LOCK status. The order of the teams has moved a little though as expected.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (6): Iowa State, Villanova, Boise State, Kentucky, La Salle, Tennessee

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: This group continues to get smaller. Yesterday, we said goodbye to Providence whose loss in the first round of the Big East tourney solidified its spot in the NIT. A couple more bubbles will likely burst and many of them thanks to the play in the SEC tourney.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (18): Iowa State, Villanova, Boise State, Kentucky, La Salle, Tennessee, Virginia, Baylor, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Alabama, Maryland, Iowa, Southern Miss, Xavier, Arizona State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (5), A-10 (5), MWC (5), Pac-12 (5), ACC (4), SEC (4), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs.SOUTH
MIDWEST vs. WEST

**Duke is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Villanova vs. Louisville (Big East Quarters)
Cincinnati vs. Georgetown (Big East Quarters)
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State (Big 12 Quarters)
Texas Tech vs. Kansas (Big 12 Quarters)
Tulane vs. Memphis (CUSA Quarters)
Arizona State vs. UCLA (Pac-12 Quarters)
Minnesota vs. Illinois (Big Ten First Round)
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 Quarters)
UAB vs. Southern Miss (CUSA Quarters)
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee (SEC First Round)
St. Joseph's vs. Xavier (A-10 First Round)
Wake Forest vs. Maryland (ACC First Round)
Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas (SEC First Round)
Northwestern vs. Iowa (Big Ten First Round)

Keep an eye on all the games above because they will play a big role on who gets in and who stays out. I'll (hopefully) have another update tomorrow. I leave for Chicago early in the morning so may not have time to post anything until I get there.

MB