2013 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 10

Here we are finally. Selection Sunday week. And though the tournament is officially known as "March Madness", I think it's fair to say the madness has already begun. Just look at those final conference regular season games or the start of these conference tournaments. There is plenty to be excited about everyone. And for me,, it culminates when they announce those teams and seeds on Sunday.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Last post, I added 7 new teams to this group. I don't have quite that many this time as I want to be sure I only put in deserving teams. This week, I'm adding a couple. Saint Mary's after avoiding the upset in their conference tournament. Now, if they beat Gonzaga, they obviously are in but I think getting that far is enough. I'm also adding Temple. A team that lived on the BUBBLE but thanks to a quality win vs. VCU and a 7-game win streak, I think have done enough to assure its spot. A couple other teams were close to locking up spots but I'm gonna keep them back for now.

These are in order of how I see them.

LOCKS (40): Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville, Kansas, Georgetown, Miami (FL), Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida, New Mexico, Marquette, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Syracuse, Wisconsin, UNLV, Butler, Pittsburgh, Saint Louis, UCLA, Notre Dame, Memphis, North Carolina, Creighton, San Diego State, VCU, Missouri, Colorado State, Oregon, Oklahoma, Colorado, NC State, California, Illinois, Wichita State, Saint Mary's, Temple


AUTOS: Well, this group has already become a fluid situation. Upsets galore have struck some of the conference tournaments. None though have created any big stealing situations. With Belmont's win, they don't have to worry about being on the BUBBLE anymore. Any other changes I made to this group are because the team I projected to win the bid was upset in their conference tournament already or in Akron's case, I am replacing them with Ohio as the Zips will be without their starting point guard in the MAC tourney.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Liberty, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Ohio, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - LIU Brooklyn, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - FIU, WAC - Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: For the first time in a while, no one moved in or out of this group. There was some movement but the same teams that were in here are still here. A lot of their NCAA tournament hopes will be riding on their performances in their respective conference tournaments.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (8): Iowa State, Minnesota, Boise State, Villanova, Kentucky, Cincinnati, La Salle, Tennessee

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: The BUBBLE is shrinking quickly. No additions this week. Just more deletions. So long to any AT-LARGE hopes for the likes of Akron, Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech. All 3 had small chances but losses this past week put an end to that. Akron and La Tech can still win AUTO bids but MTSU is NIT bound. Baylor and Virginia got big wins over the weekend to get closer to the field but will need 1 or 2 more wins to feel better. You can all but kiss Providence, Xavier and Arizona State's chances goodbye after losses but for now, they stay on the edge of the BUBBLE.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (19): Iowa State, Minnesota, Boise State, Villanova, Kentucky, Cincinnati, La Salle, Tennessee, Virginia, Baylor, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Alabama, Maryland, Iowa, Southern Miss, Providence, Xavier, Arizona State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (5), A-10 (5), MWC (5), Pac-12 (5), ACC (4), SEC (4), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs.SOUTH
MIDWEST vs. WEST

**Duke is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

MONDAY
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's (WCC Championship) - I have both teams in the field already. Gonzaga could lock up its 1 seed with a win. A loss puts it in back in play I think.
James Madison vs. Northeastern (Colonial Championship)
Charleston vs. Davidson (Southern Championship)
Western Kentucky vs. FIU (Sun Belt Championship)
Manhattan vs. Iona (MAAC Championship)

TUESDAY
Mount St. Mary's vs. LIU Brooklyn (Northeast Championship)
Wright State vs. Valparaiso (Horizon Championship) 
Summit Championship

I will have another update after Tuesday's games. You won't notice many changes to the bracket because many of the bigger conferences do not start playing until later in the week. But you will see some minor changes as some of the other conferences crown champions. Then, I will attempt to go daily with this so you know what I am thinking after each day of action. It's not easy as games start early in the day and end late but I'll do my best.

MB