2013 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 13

Championship Week is in full force now and that means it is do or die time for a lot of teams. Whether that "die" is the end of a season or a berth in another postseason tournament depends on the team. regardless, it is not the Big Dance, which of course comes with opportunity to win a national championship. This is no doubt the toughest week for a bracketologist as you try to equate what one tournament loss and win can do for a team in the seeding process.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I'm adding 2 more. Minnesota for its overall solid play during the season. A ton of big wins coupled with a lot of losses. But the big wins should carry them in, especially for a team from the best conference in the NCAA this year. Also, Cincinnati avoided the bad loss vs. Providence in the Big East tourney and I think is safely in. I will say I'm getting nervous about Saint Mary's. I added them to this list and then after further review, don't feel nearly as good about that decision. For now, they will stay.

These are in order of how I see them.

LOCKS (42): Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville, Kansas, Georgetown, Miami (FL), Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida, New Mexico, Marquette, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Syracuse, Wisconsin, UNLV, Butler, Pittsburgh, Saint Louis, UCLA, Notre Dame, Memphis, North Carolina, Creighton, VCU, San Diego State, Colorado State, Missouri, Colorado, NC State, Illinois, Oregon, California, Wichita State, Oklahoma, Temple, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Saint Mary's


AUTOS: As expected, numerous changes in this group as upsets happen in the conference tournaments. It is just nearly impossible to predict how they will end up as even the top seeds lose in the first round.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Liberty, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - James Madison, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Ohio, MEAC - Hampton, Northeast - LIU Brooklyn, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Western Kentucky, WAC - Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Same group just minus two teams that graduated up to LOCK status. The order of the teams has moved a little though as expected.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (6): Iowa State, Villanova, Boise State, Kentucky, La Salle, Tennessee

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: This group continues to get smaller. Yesterday, we said goodbye to Providence whose loss in the first round of the Big East tourney solidified its spot in the NIT. A couple more bubbles will likely burst and many of them thanks to the play in the SEC tourney.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (18): Iowa State, Villanova, Boise State, Kentucky, La Salle, Tennessee, Virginia, Baylor, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Alabama, Maryland, Iowa, Southern Miss, Xavier, Arizona State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (5), A-10 (5), MWC (5), Pac-12 (5), ACC (4), SEC (4), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs.SOUTH
MIDWEST vs. WEST

**Duke is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Villanova vs. Louisville (Big East Quarters)
Cincinnati vs. Georgetown (Big East Quarters)
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State (Big 12 Quarters)
Texas Tech vs. Kansas (Big 12 Quarters)
Tulane vs. Memphis (CUSA Quarters)
Arizona State vs. UCLA (Pac-12 Quarters)
Minnesota vs. Illinois (Big Ten First Round)
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 Quarters)
UAB vs. Southern Miss (CUSA Quarters)
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee (SEC First Round)
St. Joseph's vs. Xavier (A-10 First Round)
Wake Forest vs. Maryland (ACC First Round)
Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas (SEC First Round)
Northwestern vs. Iowa (Big Ten First Round)

Keep an eye on all the games above because they will play a big role on who gets in and who stays out. I'll (hopefully) have another update tomorrow. I leave for Chicago early in the morning so may not have time to post anything until I get there.

MB

2013 Barnes Bracketology: Bubble Watch

So what is it going to take for your favorite team to get off the bubble this week? That is certainly not a question one wants posed to them just days before Selection Sunday but it's the case for a dozen or so teams who have work to do in conference tournaments to help their case.


So in lieu of a full bracket projection, I will let you in on some of what makes my job so hard. I will break down the numbers on 14 bubble teams fighting for what I think is 4 spots.

Much like me, you cane make a decision on the 4 most worthy teams. Much of it comes down to your criteria of "most worthy". Is it their RPI? Or is it their strength of schedule (SOS)? How about their record away from home? Or maybe it's about how they're playing right now?

You be the judge. Here are the teams (in alphabetical order):

Alabama (20-11)
RPI: 61  SOS: 91  Non-Conference SOS: 82
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 1-4  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-7
Road W-L: 4-8  Last 12 Games: 8-4
Key Wins: Kentucky, Villanova*, Tennessee, Arkansas
Key Losses: Tulane, at Auburn, Dayton, Mercer, at Tennessee, at LSU, at Ole Miss 
Breakdown: The wins are solid are the RPI and SOS aren't terrible. But it just looks like an NIT resume. Take away a few of those bad losses and this team would be in much better shape. 

Arizona State (20-11)
RPI: 91  SOS: 124  Non-Conference SOS: 284
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-4  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-8
Road W-L: 4-6  Last 12 Games:5-7
Key Wins: Colorado (x 2), UCLA, California, Arkansas*
Key Losses: DePaul, at Utah, at USC, Washington (x 2), Stanford
Breakdown: The wins are good and there's not a plethora of bad losses. The big problem is that ASU didn't really play anyone in the non-conference. It inflates the win number but definitely not the RPI number, which is laughable for an at-large selection.



Arkansas (19-12)
RPI: 77  SOS: 82  Non-Conference SOS: 128
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-10
Road W-L: 1-9  Last 12 Games:7-5
Key Wins: Oklahoma, Florida, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee
Key Losses: at South Carolina, at Vanderbilt, Arizona State*, at Texas A&M, at Ole Miss, at Alabama, at LSU
Breakdown: They've beaten the best in the SEC. But they've also lost to some of the worst. The SOS is just okay but the record against the top 50 is solid. The red flag is the road record. Just one win on the road all season just smells like an unworthy team.

Baylor (18-13)
RPI: 62  SOS: 21  Non-Conference SOS: 47
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 3-10  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-10
Road W-L: 4-7  Last 12 Games: 4-8
Key Wins: at Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Kansas
Key Losses: Northwestern, at Texas, Charleston
Breakdown: 13 losses is a lot but considering 10 of them came from teams that will no doubt be in the tournament, it's not that bad. The SOS, in and out of conference, is solid. But again, 13 losses is a lot. Oh and ending the regular season 4-8 is doing them no favors either.

Iowa (20-11)
RPI: 76  SOS: 126  Non-Conference SOS: 312
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-8  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-8
Road W-L: 2-8  Last 12 Games: 7-5
Key Wins: Iowa State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois
Key Losses: at Virginia Tech, at Nebraska, at Purdue
Breakdown: If you look at those key wins, you're impressed. And the lack of bad losses is good too. But 312nd in non-conference SOS? Yeah, that's just awful. Most Big Ten teams have a SOS in the top 50. But Iowa's languishes at 126 because they loaded up on cupcakes. May keep them out of the dance.

Kentucky (21-10)
RPI: 50  SOS: 66  Non-Conference SOS: 70
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-4  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-9
Road W-L: 4-7  Last 12 Games: 8-4
Key Wins: Missouri, Florida, Tennessee
Key Losses: Georgia, Texas A&M, at Arkansas, at Alabama, Baylor
Breakdown: The numbers are good for an at-large. The wins are as well, especially when you consider all 3 came after Nerlens Noel's injury. But it's still a questionable enough resume to keep Wildcats fans on edge.

La Salle (21-8)
RPI: 39  SOS: 87  Non-Conference SOS: 115
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-7
Road W-L: 8-6  Last 12 Games: 9-3
Key Wins: Butler, at VCU, Villanova
Key Losses: Central Conn. St., at Xavier, at Charlotte, UMass, at Bucknell
Breakdown: They played in one of the toughest conferences, hence their great RPI number. And beating VCU on the road is great. The losses are troublesome but a winning road record, a quality finish to the regular season and near .500 record vs. the top-100 is positive news.

Maryland (20-11)
RPI: 83  SOS: 114  Non-Conference SOS: 296
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-5  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 3-9
Road W-L: 3-7  Last 12 Games: 5-7
Key Wins: NC State, Duke
Key Losses: Florida State (x 2), Virginia (x 2), at Boston College, at Georgia Tech
Breakdown: Remember who great that Maryland win over Duke was? Terps fans hope the committee does because besides their win at NC State, that's it. They did not fare well in conference and out of conference, they played next to no one.

Ole Miss (23-8)
RPI: 56  SOS: 151  Non-Conference SOS: 286
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 1-4  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-6
Road W-L: 6-6  Last 12 Games: 6-6
Key Wins: Missouri, Tennessee (x 2), Arkansas, Alabama
Key Losses: at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, at Texas A&M, at Indiana State
Breakdown: Ole Miss had such a great start to the season but has limped to the finish. Part of the reason for the great start was their lack of competition. Add that nugget to the fact that the SEC is weak and you get some awful numbers for the Rebels.

Southern Miss (23-8)
RPI: 36  SOS: 79  Non-Conference SOS: 71
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 0-5  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-7
Road W-L: 9-6  Last 12 Games: 8-4
Key Wins: None
Key Losses: at Marshall, at New Mexico State, at UCF
Breakdown: Another year, another great RPI number for Southern Miss. So why are they on the bubble? Look at that key win row. It's empty because they have zero wins against teams that are surely making the tournament. The numbers are deceiving. The lack of quality wins is not.

Villanova (18-12)
RPI: 51  SOS: 19  Non-Conference SOS: 151
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 5-7  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-10
Road W-L: 6-7  Last 12 Games: 7-5
Key Wins: Louisville, Syracuse, at UConn, Marquette, Georgetown
Key Losses: Columbia, at Seton Hall, Providence (x 2), Alabama*
Breakdown: The overall record does not look good but those key wins look great. Those alone may get 'Nova in the field. Add in a quality road record and the resume looks good. The non-conference schedule was not great but when you play in the Big East, you get a pass.

Virginia (21-10)
RPI: 68  SOS: 132  Non-Conference SOS: 302
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-2  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 8-3
Road W-L: 3-8  Last 12 Games: 7-5
Key Wins: at Wisconsin, North Carolina, NC State, Duke, Tennessee, Maryland (x 2)
Key Losses: at George Mason, Old Dominion*, at Wake Forest, at Clemson, Delaware, at Georgia Tech, at Boston College, at Florida State
Breakdown: The biggest enigma on this list. The key wins are flat out impressive. I see those and I put that team in the field. But that same team has those key losses. Just does make sense. Also, it's one thing to schedule so poorly in the non-conference. It's another thing to lose to some of those scrubs. 8-3 vs. the top 100. 4-2 vs. the top 50. I just can't figure them out.

Xavier (17-13)
RPI: 80  SOS: 51  Non-Conference SOS: 109
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 5-3  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-8
Road W-L: 4-7  Last 12 Games: 6-6
Key Wins: Butler, Temple, La Salle, Memphis, Saint Louis
Key Losses: Wofford, at Wake Forest, Pacific, Vanderbilt, at Dayton, at Richmond, UMass, at St. Joseph's, at Charlotte, at Tennessee
Breakdown: At 17-13, they should not even be considered you'd think. But those 5 keys win merit consideration. The losses though almost take that consideration away. The RPI number is 80 is not good bu the 5-3 record vs. the top 50 is. We shall see.

2013 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 10

Here we are finally. Selection Sunday week. And though the tournament is officially known as "March Madness", I think it's fair to say the madness has already begun. Just look at those final conference regular season games or the start of these conference tournaments. There is plenty to be excited about everyone. And for me,, it culminates when they announce those teams and seeds on Sunday.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Last post, I added 7 new teams to this group. I don't have quite that many this time as I want to be sure I only put in deserving teams. This week, I'm adding a couple. Saint Mary's after avoiding the upset in their conference tournament. Now, if they beat Gonzaga, they obviously are in but I think getting that far is enough. I'm also adding Temple. A team that lived on the BUBBLE but thanks to a quality win vs. VCU and a 7-game win streak, I think have done enough to assure its spot. A couple other teams were close to locking up spots but I'm gonna keep them back for now.

These are in order of how I see them.

LOCKS (40): Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville, Kansas, Georgetown, Miami (FL), Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida, New Mexico, Marquette, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Syracuse, Wisconsin, UNLV, Butler, Pittsburgh, Saint Louis, UCLA, Notre Dame, Memphis, North Carolina, Creighton, San Diego State, VCU, Missouri, Colorado State, Oregon, Oklahoma, Colorado, NC State, California, Illinois, Wichita State, Saint Mary's, Temple


AUTOS: Well, this group has already become a fluid situation. Upsets galore have struck some of the conference tournaments. None though have created any big stealing situations. With Belmont's win, they don't have to worry about being on the BUBBLE anymore. Any other changes I made to this group are because the team I projected to win the bid was upset in their conference tournament already or in Akron's case, I am replacing them with Ohio as the Zips will be without their starting point guard in the MAC tourney.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Liberty, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Ohio, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - LIU Brooklyn, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - FIU, WAC - Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: For the first time in a while, no one moved in or out of this group. There was some movement but the same teams that were in here are still here. A lot of their NCAA tournament hopes will be riding on their performances in their respective conference tournaments.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (8): Iowa State, Minnesota, Boise State, Villanova, Kentucky, Cincinnati, La Salle, Tennessee

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: The BUBBLE is shrinking quickly. No additions this week. Just more deletions. So long to any AT-LARGE hopes for the likes of Akron, Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech. All 3 had small chances but losses this past week put an end to that. Akron and La Tech can still win AUTO bids but MTSU is NIT bound. Baylor and Virginia got big wins over the weekend to get closer to the field but will need 1 or 2 more wins to feel better. You can all but kiss Providence, Xavier and Arizona State's chances goodbye after losses but for now, they stay on the edge of the BUBBLE.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (19): Iowa State, Minnesota, Boise State, Villanova, Kentucky, Cincinnati, La Salle, Tennessee, Virginia, Baylor, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Alabama, Maryland, Iowa, Southern Miss, Providence, Xavier, Arizona State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (5), A-10 (5), MWC (5), Pac-12 (5), ACC (4), SEC (4), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs.SOUTH
MIDWEST vs. WEST

**Duke is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

MONDAY
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's (WCC Championship) - I have both teams in the field already. Gonzaga could lock up its 1 seed with a win. A loss puts it in back in play I think.
James Madison vs. Northeastern (Colonial Championship)
Charleston vs. Davidson (Southern Championship)
Western Kentucky vs. FIU (Sun Belt Championship)
Manhattan vs. Iona (MAAC Championship)

TUESDAY
Mount St. Mary's vs. LIU Brooklyn (Northeast Championship)
Wright State vs. Valparaiso (Horizon Championship) 
Summit Championship

I will have another update after Tuesday's games. You won't notice many changes to the bracket because many of the bigger conferences do not start playing until later in the week. But you will see some minor changes as some of the other conferences crown champions. Then, I will attempt to go daily with this so you know what I am thinking after each day of action. It's not easy as games start early in the day and end late but I'll do my best.

MB

2013 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 7

These next 9 days or so are what I like to call the crazy season, because some crazy things are going to happen. That's what happens when teams are playing their final home games or possibly their final game of the season. There's more desperation and in turn, more effort form teams that failed to show it in the weeks and months before. So while some losses may look horrible, it's important to keep in mind the complete body of work. Makes for some fascinating television though doesn't it?

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: It's about that time where I normally put a ton of teams in because well, they're safer than a lot of others making them all but LOCKS to get in. Last post, I put in 3 teams. Today, even more as I add in 7 squads. North Carolina earned theirs with a 7-game win streak. Memphis avoided the bad loss after their loss at Xavier. Colorado throttled Oregon to seal the deal. NC State has been solid not spectacular all year. Same can be said for Colorado State. Illinois and California get in a bit by default as they both lost this week but due to the amount of BUBBLE teams that fell, those two should be just fine.

And for the first time, I will put these in order of how I see them.

LOCKS (38): Duke, Gonzaga, Indiana, Kansas, Louisville, Michigan, Georgetown, Miami (FL), Michigan State, Florida, New Mexico, Ohio State, Kansas State, Marquette, Syracuse, Arizona, Oklahoma State, UNLV, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Butler, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, San Diego State, Missouri, North Carolina, Saint Louis, UCLA, Oregon, VCU, Memphis, Colorado, NC State, Colorado State, Illinois, Creighton, California, Wichita State


AUTOS: The conference tournaments have begun expect a lot of shifting in this group as top teams get upset. Also, watch out for conferences like the Missouri Valley or Conference-USA to be bid stealers. In other words, a team outside of the one they have represented in the LOCKS category winning the tournament, effectively, stealing a bid from one of the many BUBBLE teams. It will happen. Just a matter of who and how many.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Niagara, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC - Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Virginia did themselves no favor (again) by losing at Florida State. So yet again, they are out of this group. We welcome back Tennessee who avoided what would have been an embarrassing loss to Auburn. Great win by Villanova to help its cause, taking down a hot Georgetown team. Same for Iowa State, who took care of business at home vs. Oklahoma State. Kentucky and Cincinnati though continue to falter and are in a bit of trouble.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (10): Minnesota, Saint Mary's, Iowa State, Temple, Villanova, La Salle, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Boise State, Tennessee

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: I dropped Akron a bit on my BUBBLE with the loss of PG Alex Abreu to legal issues. If he returns, I will re-think my position. But the Zips should just plan on winning the MAC tourney anyways. Same can be said for a lot of BUBBLE teams who failed to get the job done this week. Baylor, Maryland, Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss all lost game they desperately needed. Their pain is someone's else gain though. I did add Iowa, Providence and Xavier to this list. They are still longshots to get in but impressive wins over the past 2-3 weeks merits their inclusion. Still time to jet up this list.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (26): Minnesota, Saint Mary's, Iowa State, Temple, Villanova, La Salle, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Boise State, Tennessee, Akron, Virginia, Maryland, Arkansas, Belmont, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Baylor, Alabama, Middle Tennessee, Xavier, Iowa, Providence, Southern Miss, BYU, Louisiana Tech

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (5), A-10 (5), MWC (5), Pac-12 (5), ACC (4), SEC (4), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs.SOUTH
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Duke is the overall top seed

Next update after Sunday's games. And then, the updates will become much more frequent. Look for a post on Tuesday, and then go daily from Thursday to Sunday. And if I get time, I'll provide a Bubble Watch special so you can see the teams vying for those final few spots and why it's so hard picking any of them to get in.

MB

2013 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 3

Loving the fact that we are 2 weeks away form breaking down brackets and trying to figure out who may win this year's championship. While many are leaning toward Indiana, Duke and Kansas, you'd be crazy to not think about a team like Gonzaga or Louisville or even Kansas State. It is truly wide open this year. Would it be crazy to see a team like Illinois make a run to the Final Four? What about Creighton to the Elite Eight? I don't think so.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Time to put Missouri in this field. They avoided the bad loss bug vs. LSU and have enough quality wins to be included here. Same can be said for VCU, who throttled Butler Saturday. Also, let's throw in Creighton. They beat Wichita State to win the Missouri Valley regular season title outright. I think there's room for both of them comfortably in the field. That's put the number up to 31 and I have 2-4 more teams that are very close to joining, if they can just win their midweek game.

LOCKS (31): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Wisconsin, Butler, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Oregon, San Diego State, UNLV, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Saint Louis, Wichita State, UCLA, Missouri, VCU, Creighton


AUTOS: Every Sunday, I'll take a look at this group a little closer to see if anything really needs to be change. This week, that's just Niagara in the MAAC.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, C-USA - Memphis, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Niagara, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC - Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Gotta give some love to Boise State, who did what BUBBLE teams need to go to get into this group: defend homecourt against quality teams. They did just that, beating Colorado State by 13. Welcome to the field Broncos. But as we welcome them, we say goodbye to Tennessee, who lost to Georgia. They lost both games to the Dawgs and well, that's not gonna cut it.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (16): Illinois, North Carolina, California, NC State, Colorado, Minnesota, Colorado State, Kentucky, Saint Mary's, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Temple, La Salle, Boise State, Villanova, Virginia

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: I cannot figure out Virginia. Beat Duke and then lose at Boston College. Really?!? They stay in my field but barely. But it's those kinds of losses that other BUBBLE teams cannot afford. Just ask Indiana State and Charlotte who have seen their bubble burst after bad losses. Alabama came close to a big win vs. Florida but came up short so they still lag behind. Other losses came from Arizona State (to USC), Ole Miss (to a terrible Miss. State team), Baylor (in kick-in-the-gut fashion to Kansas State), and St. John's (to Providence). Props to Arkansas for a good win vs. Kentucky to move up but still on the outside looking in. And finally, Akron had been rolling and in good shape for an AT-LARGE if they needed it. Not anymore after losing badly at Buffalo.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (31): Illinois, Memphis, North Carolina, California, NC State, Colorado, Minnesota, Colorado State, Kentucky, Saint Mary's, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Temple, La Salle, Boise State, Akron, Villanova, Virginia, Tennessee, Baylor, Maryland, Arkansas, Belmont, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Arizona State, Alabama, Ole Miss, Middle Tennessee, St. John's, BYU

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (5), ACC (5), A-10 (5), MWC (5), Pac-12 (5), SEC (3), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs.SOUTH
EAST vs. WEST

**Indiana is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

MONDAY
Cincinnati at Louisville - I like to think that the Bearcats in in good shape but their recent slide convinces me otherwise. The Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in the nation and marching toward a 1 seed.

Baylor at Texas - One of those must-have games for the Bears, who continue to move further and further away from the AT-LARGE discussion.

TUESDAY
Ohio State at Indiana - With every win, the Buckeyes seed and more importantly, chances of playing cloe to Columbus get better. Indiana is still fighting for that #1 overall seed.
Memphis at UTEP - If Memphis wins this road game, I'll make them a LOCK finally. Still seems odd considering their lack of quality victories.
St. John's at Notre Dame - Red Storm gotta have this one. Not many chances left before the Big East tourney.
Arkansas at Missouri - Arkansas has been awful at road games. Probably why they aren't projected in my field. Get this one and their case gets a little better.
Southern Miss at Marshall - Marshall has underperformed this year so the last thing Southern Miss can do is underperform in Huntington and see their AT-LARGE chances vanish.
Miami (OH) at Akron - Was that Buffalo loss just a one-time lapse for the Zips? They better hope so because another loss ends any talk of an AT-LARGE bid.
Illinois at Iowa - Iowa could get back into the picture with this win but would still need a lot of work. Illinois can lock up their spot with a victory.
Alabama at Ole Miss - Plain and simple. This is an elimination game. Winner stays a BUBBLE team. Loser can start making plans on winning the SEC tourney.
Boise State at UNLV - Gonna be hard for the Broncos to win this one but if they do, their resume gets a ton better and would make it hard to argue they don't deserve a spot.

WEDNESDAY
Michigan at Purdue - Purdue has shown they can upset a big boy. Michigan has shown they can lose to the little tikes. Watch this one.
Georgetown at Villanova- The Hoyas are no doubt the favorite but beware a desperate 'Nova team playing for their tourney lives at home in Philly.
Oklahoma State at Iowa State - The Cyclones are worthy of a spot in the field when I see them with my eyes. On paper though, their case is not that strong. Win here goes a long way.
North Carolina at Maryland - North Carolina is rounding into form at the right time. Maryland is still an enigma. Better figure it out for this one though to pad their mediocre resume.
Temple at Fordham - My good friend Tanner who works with Temple told me this one will be close. I trust his opinion. If Temple loses, look for them to stay in but move into the "First Four".
George Washington at La Salle - La Salle is doing everything right in avoiding the terrible loss. They just aren't playing any meaningful games. Win this one and stay solid.
Tennessee at Auburn - Auburn is awful so needless to say, the Vols need to not only win but look impressive to get back in the good graces of the committee and bracketologists.
Colorado State at Wyoming- The Rams are a great team playing in a great conference. I don't blame them for their quality losses, especially on the road. Get this one, they may be a LOCK.
Stanford at California - Cal is coming off a great win vs. Colorado. They are playing great ball lately and with this win, are in really good shape come Selection Sunday.


THURSDAY
Wisconsin at Michigan State - This game not only has conference title implications but seeding implications in the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments.
Oregon at Colorado - If the Buffaloes pull off this victory, I'm locking them into my projected field. They have done well so far and this one would be the icing on the cake.
Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State - You saw what happened to Akron? These games on the road are not easy for undefeated teams in a conference. Good luck La Tech.
Virginia at Florida State - After seeing what UNC did to FSU over the weekend, UVA needs to win this game by double digits at least....and I don't care if it's on the road.

Next update after Thursday's games. Enjoy the games this weekend and check back Thursday morning/afternoon for the latest projections and prognostications!

MB