2011 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 5

If the past 2 weeks are any indication of just how unpredictable this year's tournament is going to be, then buckle up. Just 2 weeks ago, all my projected 1 seeds lost. This past week, seemed like almost bubble team lost. It's hard to get any sort of gauge of what is going on anymore. But I continue to press on, do my research, and create a projected bracket. Here is the latest.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Wee have added 3 teams to this category and for good reason. All were bubble teams and all defeated a team already in the LOCKS or AT-LARGE category. West Virginia took down UConn, Cincinnati beat Marquette on the road, and Washington beat UCLA. All 3 were fairly safe before their victories but are definitely in now.

LOCKS (33): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, George Mason, Old Dominion, Kansas State, UNLV, UCLA, West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Washington.

AUTOS: Still no changes here but don't fret as on Saturday, we will have at least 3 teams clinch their spots in the NCAA Tournament. They may or may not be who I have predicted so this category may or may not change.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Long Beach State, Conference USA - UAB, Horizon - Butler, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Fairfield, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Bethune Cookman, Missouri Valley - Missouri State, Northeast -Long Island, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Charleston, Southland - McNeese State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic, WAC - Utah State, WCC -St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: This ever-changing group is changing once again. Out goes Clemson and Memphis after losses and in comes Colorado State and Nebraska, teams who have been here before.

Again, these are in order from most safe to least safe. I would say the top half of this group is in fairly good shape, unless they completely fall apart. The bottom half though needs to keep winning to feel good at all.

AT-LARGE (13): Michigan State, Florida State, Tennessee, Marquette, Tennessee, Georgia, Illinois, Gonzaga, Richmond, Cleveland State, Boston College, Colorado State and Nebraska.

BUBBLE WATCH

At a time when BUBBLE teams should be playing their best basketball, many are finding ways to play their worst. Memphis losing at East Carolina. Maryland falling at Miami (FL). Colorado caving in to Iowa State. These are inexcusable losses at this time of the season. But yet, it happens. It make smy job hard as I have to decipher which loss is better/worse. At the same time, all these losses have brought a team like Wichita State back into discussion for a bid, despite not playing for nearly 10 days.

BUBBLE (31): Utah State, UAB. Michigan State, Florida State, Tennesee, Marquette, Georgia, Illinois, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, Richmond, Butler, St. Mary's, Cleveland State, Boston College, Missouri State, Colorado State, Nebraska, Michigan, Memphis, Alabama, Baylor, Colorado, UTEP, Clemson, VCU, Wichita State, UCF, Southern Miss, Penn State, and Valparaiso.

SEEDING

BYU's loss didn't drop them from a 2 seed but it did confirm to me that they are not a 1 seed possibility anymore. North Carolina though is up to a 3 seed as they continue their impressive play lately. UConn drops a couple spots to 6 as their erratic play continues. Other than that, not too many drastic moves in the bracket in terms of seeding.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), ACC (4), MWC (4), A-10 (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), Horizon (2), WCC (2)

(bracket will be posted later. sorry)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHWEST vs. SOUTHEAST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

Team has moved up since last post
Team has moved down since last post

EAST REGION - Newark
#1 Ohio State (28-2) vs. #16 Murray State (23-7) - Cleveland
#2 Texas (24-6) vs. #15 Bucknell (23-8) - Tucson
#3 San Diego State (28-2) vs. #14 Kent State (20-10) - Chicago
#4 Syracuse (24-6) vs. #13 Belmont (27-4) - Tucson
#5 Arizona (24-6) vs. #12 Boston College(18-11)/Cleveland State (25-7) - Tucson
#6 Temple (23-6) vs. #11 Illinois (18-12) - Chicago
#7 West Virginia (19-10) vs. #10 Tennessee (18-12) - Tucson
#8 George Mason (25-5) vs. #9 UAB (21-7) - Cleveland

SOUTHWEST REGION - San Antonio
#1 Kansas (28-2) vs. #16 Montana (20-9)/Bethune-Cookman (20-11) - Tulsa
#2 Notre Dame (24-5) vs. #15 Fairfield (23-6) - Chicago
#3 North Carolina (23-6) vs. #14 Vermont (22-7) - Tampa
#4 Georgetown (21-8) vs. #13 Princeton (22-5) - Denver
#5 Vanderbilt (21-8) vs. #12 Butler (21-9) - Denver
#6 Xavier (23-6) vs. #11 St. Mary's (23-7) - Tampa
#7 Missouri (22-8) vs. #10 Michigan State (17-12) - Chicago
#8 Cincinnati (23-6) vs. #9 Washington (20-9) - Tulsa

SOUTHEAST REGION - New Orleans
#1 Pittsburgh (26-3) vs. #16 Florida Atlantic (21-9) - Cleveland
#2 BYU (27-3) vs. #15 Long Beach State (20-10) - Tulsa
#3 Wisconsin (23-6) vs. #14 Coastal Carolina (28-4) - Washington D.C.
#4 Kentucky (21-8) vs. #13 Colorado State (19-10)/Nebraska (19-10) - Charlotte
#5 St. John's (19-10) vs. #12 Gonzaga (22-9) - Charlotte
#6 Texas A&M (22-7) vs. #11 Richmond (23-7) - Washington D.C.
#7 Villanova (21-9) vs. #10 Georgia (20-9) - Tulsa
#8 Old Dominion (24-6) vs. #9 Florida State (20-9) - Cleveland

WEST REGION - Anaheim
#1 Duke (27-2) vs. #16 Texas Southern (17-11)/McNeese State (18-10) - Charlotte
#2 Purdue (25-5) vs. #15 Long Island (25-5) - Denver
#3 Florida (23-6) vs. #14 Charleston (22-9) - Washington D.C.
#4 Louisville (23-7) vs. #13 Oakland (22-9) - Tampa
#5 Kansas State (21-9) vs. #12 Missouri State (22-7) - Tampa
#6 UConn (21-8) vs. #11 Virginia Tech (19-9) - Washington D.C.
#7 UNLV (22-7) vs. #10 Marquette (18-12) - Denver
#8 UCLA (21-9) vs. #9 Utah State (27-3) - Charlotte

GAMES TO WATCH

FRIDAY
Southern Illinois vs. Missouri State - Missouri State is in right now because I think they will win the conference tournament. An upset loss here finds them on the bubble.
Wright State vs. Cleveland State - The Vikings don't have many quality wins so a non-quality loss probably ends their NCAA hopes.
Bradley at Wichita State - Getting to the MVC championship is probably a given for the Shockers.

SATURDAY
Kansas at Missouri - The last regular season test for Kansas, who is still in the running for the top overall seed.
Duke at North Carolina - ACC crown not the only thing on the line, but also a 1 seed for Duke and maybe a higher seed for UNC.
Villanova at Pittsburgh - 'Nova has got to stop this freefall at some point while Pitt has the 1 seed nearly locked up.
Notre Dame at UConn - ND looks like a solid 2 right now but that could change with a win or loss in this one.
Texas at Baylor - A must-have for Baylor. ESPN Gameday is there so maybe that'll provide some extra motivation. Worked for Virginia Tech.
Colorado State at San Diego State - San Diego State would love to jump back to that 2 seed line. Colorado State would just love to jump into the tournament.
Louisville at West Virginia - Both teams are in comfortably. This one all about seeding.
Florida at Vanderbilt - The Gators are a 3 seed now, thanks to others faltering around them. If they don't falter, they could grab a 2 seed.
Georgetown at Cincinnati - Just how many of the 11 Big East teams will be an 8 seed or higher? Cincinnati currently fighting to be one of my projected 10.
Utah State at Louisiana Tech - Utah State should be okay already but who knows. A loss here could bring some doubts.
Virginia Tech at Clemson - Right when VT looked safe, they could go 0-2 against 2 other BUBBLE teams. Not good.
Duquense at Richmond - Contrary to popular belief, this is a good win for Richmond if they get it. And one that moves them closer to an AT-LARGE berth.
Indiana at Illinois - The Illini know they must win this one to keep whatever positive thoughts about them alive.
Georgia at Alabama - Bama is fighting for its tournament life in this game. UGA could survive a loss but a win would do wonders for their chances.
Michigan State at Michigan - I have no problem saying the loser in this one may be done. The winner however may have punched their ticket to the dance.
UTEP at SMU - UTEP is hard to figure out. But I can figure this out. Lose to SMU and NCAA chances take a huge hit.
UNC-Asheville at Coastal Carolina (Big South Championship) - We will have our first NCAA berth clinched with this game. Coastal is the hands-on favorite with a record of 28-4.
Marquette at Seton Hall - Marquette needs this one bad. Seton Hall will be pumped up too, coming off an upset of St. John's.
Princeton at Harvard - The Ivy title may just be on the line in this matchup. If Princeton wins, the berth is theirs.
East Carolina at UAB - ECU just upset Memphis but that was at their place. UAB is good at home and playing well as of late.
Southern Miss at Tulsa - The home loss to UAB surely stings but a bounce back needed here if they want to stay on the BUBBLE.
Nebraska at Colorado - The winner moves closer to an AT-LARGE spot. The loser probably needs to make at least a semifinal run in the conference tourney.
Atlantic Sun Championship (Teams TBD) - The favorite here is Belmont, who has played well in tournaments before and always a threat to make a first-round upset.
Ohio Valley Conference (Teams TBD) - Murray State is expected to win this crown but they have been susceptible to the upset this year.

SUNDAY
Wisconsin at Ohio State - If the Bucks get a win over the Badgers, I think they have the overall top seed locked up, no matter what happens in the conference tourney.
Kentucky at Tennessee - For as up and down Tennessee's season has been, I think they clinch a spot with a home win over the Wildcats.
Wake Forest at Boston College - Simply said, a loss to lowly Wake cannot happen if BC wants to make the NCAA Tournament.
Penn State at Minnesota - PSU is already just livin' on a prayer. They have to beat Minnesota, who hasn't won in what feels like months.
Florida State at NC State - I know NC State is not good but a win over them locks up FSU's spot. A loss though just keeps them in limbo a little longer.
Missouri Valley Championship (Teams TBD) - The presumed final is Wichita State vs. Missouri State. If that's the case, loser is on the BUBBLE and may/may not need help.

And that's all I got for now. Next update will come after Sunday night's games. Should be some movement as well as finally have some teams locked in the tournament. Of course, feel free to leave comments here on the blog or on Facebook or on my Twitter.

MB

2011 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 2

For the first time in the month of March, let me welcome you to Barnes Bracketology. Hard to believe we're down to around 10 days left until Selection Sunday (countdown clock above). with the conference tournaments about to begin, my job is about to really get fun on this blog. But for now, it's not too crazy as just some minor changes since the last post on Monday.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Not one change in this category as expected. Losses by Illinois and Virginia Tech who might have been able to lock up their spot prevented them from doing so.

LOCKS (30): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, George Mason, Old Dominion, Kansas State, UNLV, and UCLA.

AUTOS: No changes here as I am sticking with my predictions. I will say though that in one conference (MAC), one team is really getting hot and could easily be the best in the conference right now. For risk of jinxing them though, I will not type their name here on this blog until they win the conference tournament though like a year ago.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Long Beach State, Conference USA - UAB, Horizon - Butler, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Fairfield, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Bethune Cookman, Missouri Valley - Missouri State, Northeast -Long Island, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Charleston, Southland - McNeese State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic, WAC - Utah State, WCC -St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: As far as the teams are concerned, only one change as we welcome Boston College to the AT-LARGE ranks. This after handily defeating fellow AT-LARGE Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. They replace Alabama, who lost badly at Florida. A loss against a good team, yes, but also another loss that they just cannot afford when teams around them are winning.

Again, these are in order from most safe to least safe. I would say the top half of this group is in fairly good shape, unless they completely fall apart. The bottom half though needs to keep winning to feel good at all.

AT-LARGE (16): West Virginia, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Florida State, Washington, Marquette, Illinois, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, Tennessee, Georgia, Richmond, Cleveland State, Clemson, Memphis, and Boston College.

BUBBLE WATCH

During these two days of not so many games, I did a bit more bubble research, really trying hard to dissect their resumes. When I did that, I came to some conclusions. First, I was selling St. Mary's way too high. Second, I needed to dump Minnesota altogether. And finally, Michigan deserved to at least be in this category. So those changes have been made. I continue to leave teams live Valparaiso, Penn, State, VCU and UCF in this because well, I'm an optimist and think they still have a chance despite it looking like all need to win their conference tourneys to have a chance. So now, the new and improved order of BUBBLE teams.

BUBBLE (34): West Virginia, Utah State, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Florida State, Washington, Marquette, Illinois, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, St. Mary's, Tennessee, Georgia, Butler, UAB, Richmond, Cleveland State, Clemson, Memphis, Missouri State, Southern Miss, Nebraska, Michigan, Alabama, Colorado, Colorado State, Maryland, Baylor, Boston College, UTEP, VCU, Penn State, Valparaiso, and UCF.

SEEDING

Because of the small amount of games that could affect seeding, you won't find too many changes to the bracket among seeding. Now placement may be different, especially around the 7-12 range where it gets tough to place teams once you consider the NCAA regulations on making the bracket. Notre Dame is back to a 2 seed, knocking San Diego State down. Also, Kansas State and Temple move up to 6 seeds while Missouri and Villanova fall to 7 seeds. Other than that, just some minor moves you'll see.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (6), ACC (5), Big 12 (5), SEC (5), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), C-USA (2), Colonial (2), Horizon (2), WCC (2)


(click on bracket to enlarge)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHWEST vs. SOUTHEAST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

Team has moved up since last post
Team has moved down since last post

EAST REGION - Newark
#1 Ohio State (28-2) vs. #16 Murray State (23-7) - Cleveland
#2 Notre Dame (24-5) vs. #15 Bucknell (22-8) - Tucson
#3 San Diego State (28-2) vs. #14 Charleston (22-9) - Chicago
#4 Georgetown (21-8) vs. #13 Oakland (22-9) - Tucson
#5 Kentucky (21-8) vs. #12 Clemson (19-9)/Cleveland State (25-7) - Tucson
#6 Kansas State (21-9) vs. #11 St. Mary's (23-7) - Chicago
#7 George Mason (25-5) vs. #10 Virginia Tech (19-9) - Tucson
#8 UCLA (21-8) vs. #9 Cincinnati (22-6) - Cleveland

SOUTHWEST REGION - San Antonio
#1 Kansas (27-2) vs. #16 Montana (20-9)/Texas Southern (16-11) - Tulsa
#2 Purdue (25-5) vs. #15 Fairfield (23-6) - Chicago
#3 Florida (23-6) vs. #14 Vermont (22-7) - Tampa
#4 UConn (21-7) vs. #13 Belmont (27-4) - Denver
#5 Arizona (23-6) vs. #12 UAB (20-7) - Denver
#6 Temple (22-6) vs. #11 Butler (21-9) - Tampa
#7 Missouri (22-8) vs. #10 Gonzaga (22-9) - Chicago
#8 West Virginia (18-10) vs. #9 Florida State (20-8) - Tulsa

SOUTHEAST REGION - New Orleans
#1 Pittsburgh (25-3) vs. #16 Bethune-Cookman (19-11)/McNeese State (18-9) - Cleveland
#2 Texas (24-6) vs. #15 Long Beach State (19-10) - Tulsa
#3 Wisconsin (22-6) vs. #14 Coastal Carolina (27-4) - Washington D.C.
#4 North Carolina (22-6) vs. #13 Princeton (22-5) - Charlotte
#5 St. John's (19-9) vs. #12 Missouri State (22-7) - Charlotte
#6 Xavier (22-6) vs. #11 Tennessee (17-12) - Washington D.C.
#7 UNLV (22-7) vs. #10 Marquette (18-11) - Tulsa
#8 Utah State (26-3) vs. #9 Michigan State (16-12) - Cleveland

WEST REGION - Anaheim
#1 Duke (26-2) vs. #16 Florida Atlantic (21-9) - Charlotte
#2 BYU (27-2) vs. #15 Long Island (24-5) - Denver
#3 Syracuse (24-6) vs. #14 Kent State (20-10) - Washington D.C.
#4 Louisville (22-7) vs. #13 Memphis (21-8)/Boston College(18-11)- Tampa
#5 Vanderbilt (21-8) vs. #12 Richmond (22-7) - Tampa
#6 Texas A&M (22-6) vs. #11 Georgia (19-9) - Washington D.C.
#7 Villanova (21-9) vs. #10 Illinois (18-12) - Denver
#8 Old Dominion (24-6) vs. #9 Washington (19-9) - Charlotte

GAMES TO WATCH

WEDNESDAY
Texas A&M at Kansas - Kansas just got back to the 1 seed line. A loss here at home paves the way for BYU to take their spot.
Clemson at Duke - Clemson could pretty much clinch their spot with this huge road win. Plus, a Duke loss drops them from a 1 seed most likely.
North Carolina at Florida State - FSU is still in good shape but they'll be a LOCK if they pull off this upset at home.
UConn at West Virginia - See above, replace FSU with WV.
Iowa at Michigan State - Iowa has been a pest to each Big Ten team so far. MSU can't lose this game.
Memphis at East Carolina - The Tigers are barely in my bracket now. Just think what a loss to ECU would do.
Maryland at Miami (FL) - This won't be an easy win for Maryland but it's one that they have to have.
UAB at Southern Miss - A true bubble battle. Both teams fighting for their tourney lives. Winner gets a big boost.
Colorado at Iowa State - Colorado can't just stay alive on that Texas win. They lose this game, they're done.
LSU at Georgia - The Bulldogs are doing everything right. Winning games they are supposed to. This qualifies as one of those.
Cincinnati at Marquette - Marquette needs this game more as Cincy is fairly safe. Winner takes huge step to locking up their spot.
Utah at Colorado State - Colorado State is still alive but not sure if they will be if they lose at home to the Utes.
Marshall at UTEP - UTEP has some work to do to move up. A win over a 20-win Marshall team would help their cause.

THURSDAY
Tennessee at South Carolina - The Vols are such an enigma, and because of that, so is there tourney fate. This is a must-win for them in Columbia.
UCLA at Washington - UCLA is in. Washington probably would be too with this win at home.

Alright folks, that's all for now. Next update will come after Thursday night's action. And then, we'll have another after the weekend. Should be some movement as there are lots of games in the next two days that should affect seedings and placement. Of course, feel free to leave comments here on the blog or on Facebook or on my Twitter.

MB

2011 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 28

Welcome back to Barnes Bracketology. We are now just 2 weeks away until Selection Sunday so to say things are getting serious for the teams on the BUBBLE would be a understatement. While some truly helped their cause this past weekend, others really hurt it with bad losses on the road or at home. The top seeds weren't immune to the upset either as 3 of my 1 seeds lost over the weekend. All of this just means I had a lot of work to do and changes to make. But that's what I signed up for.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: As we get closer to the tourney, I said this group would grow pretty consistently. Well, it starts with this post as we add 5 teams as LOCKS. George Mason, Old Dominion, Kansas State, UNLV and UCLA all won over the weekend and all seem to be in good shape, no matter what happens over the next 2 weeks. I could have added a couple more teams but couldn't quite pull the trigger.

LOCKS (30): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, George Mason, Old Dominion, Kansas State, UNLV, and UCLA.

AUTOS: Just a couple of changes here as I have changed my mind on who I think will win the automatic bid from some conferences. You'll see the changes in italics. You may also notice the number dropped to 22 AUTOS as George Mason moved to the LOCKS category.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Long Beach State, Conference USA - UAB, Horizon - Butler, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Fairfield, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Bethune Cookman, Missouri Valley - Missouri State, Northeast -Long Island, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Charleston, Southland - McNeese State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic, WAC - Utah State, WCC -St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: As expected, plenty of change in this group. 4 of the teams moved to the LOCKS category. Others suffered awful losses at home (Washington, Tennessee, Minnesota) or on the road (Alabama and Colorado State). Some survived their loss and remain in this category while others find themselves back on the outside looking in. Of course, because of those losses, some teams moved up because of handling their business and winning, like Virginia Tech, Richmond, and Clemson.

Again, these are in order from most safe to least safe. I would say the top half of this group is in fairly good shape, unless they completely fall apart. The bottom half though needs to keep winning to feel good at all.

AT-LARGE (16): West Virginia, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Illinois, Michigan State, Florida State, Washington, Marquette, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Georgia, Richmond, Cleveland State, Alabama, Clemson and Memphis.

BUBBLE WATCH

Not sure if I have written this on the blog yet but man, is this a weak group of BUBBLE teams this year. Just a lot of teams that really have no business being considered it seems but have to be to fill out a 68-team bracket. This group has shrunk as some teams have moved up to LOCKS while two teams have seen their bubble been burst as of now (Sorry to Dayton and Wichita State fans). We also did add two teams in Colorado and Central Florida (UCF), who earned consideration after quality victories over the weekend. Again, these are in order and while making a dramatic move from the bottom to the top of this list is possible (Virginia Tech did just that in a week), it is very hard so don't be surprised to see some of the BUBBLE bottom-feeders fall by the wayside with just one more loss.

BUBBLE (34): West Virginia, Utah State, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Illinois, Michigan State, Florida State, Washington, St. Mary's, Marquette, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Georgia, Butler, UAB, Richmond, Cleveland State, Alabama, Clemson, Memphis, Missouri State, Southern Miss, Colorado State, Baylor, Penn State, Colorado, Nebraska, Boston College, Maryland, UTEP, Minnesota, VCU, Valparaiso, and UCF.

SEEDING

You will see quite a few seed changes in this latest post, and a lot of them among the top seeds. Kansas moves up to a 1 seed and BYU is up to a 2 seed. Notre Dame didn't lose but falls to a 3 seed, while Georgetown continues their fall, as they go to a 4 seed. Syracuse and North Carolina both move up one while Arizona and Texas A&M dropped one. Beyond that, just some minor cosmetic shifting on the bracket as we continue to put the puzzle together. As usual, some teams may seem to have higher/lower seeds than expected but sometimes that is necessary to make the bracket fit the rules/regulations put forth by the NCAA.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), Big 12 (5), ACC (4), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), C-USA (2), Colonial (2), Horizon (2), WCC (2)


(click on bracket to enlarge)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHWEST vs. SOUTHEAST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

Team has moved up since last post
Team has moved down since last post

EAST REGION - Newark
#1 Ohio State (26-2) vs. #16 McNeese State (18-9)/Texas Southern (16-10) - Cleveland
#2 San Diego State (27-2) vs. #15 Bucknell (22-8) - Tucson
#3 Notre Dame (23-5) vs. #14 Charleston (22-9) - Chicago
#4 Georgetown (21-8) vs. #13 Oakland (22-9) - Tucson
#5 Kentucky (20-8) vs. #12 Missouri State (22-7) - Tucson
#6 Missouri (22-7) vs. #11 Georgia (19-9) - Chicago
#7 Temple (22-6) vs. #10 St. Mary's (23-7) - Tucson
#8 UCLA (21-8) vs. #9 Cincinnati (22-6) - Cleveland

SOUTHWEST REGION - San Antonio
#1 Kansas (27-2) vs. #16 Florida Atlantic (21-9) - Tulsa
#2 Purdue (24-5) vs. #15 Fairfield (23-6) - Chicago
#3 Florida (22-6) vs. #14 Vermont (22-7) - Tampa
#4 UConn (21-7) vs. #13 Belmont (27-4) - Denver
#5 Arizona (23-6) vs. #12 Alabama (19-9)/Clemson (19-9) - Denver
#6 Villanova (21-8) vs. #11 Butler (21-9) - Tampa
#7 UNLV (22-7) vs. #10 Marquette (18-11) - Chicago
#8 Utah State (26-3) vs. #9 Virginia Tech (19-8) - Tulsa

SOUTHEAST REGION - New Orleans
#1 Pittsburgh (25-3) vs. #16 Bethune-Cookman (18-11)/Montana (20-9) - Cleveland
#2 Texas (24-5) vs. #15 Long Beach State (19-10) - Tulsa
#3 Wisconsin (22-6) vs. #14 Coastal Carolina (26-4) - Washington D.C.
#4 North Carolina (22-6) vs. #13 Princeton (22-5) - Charlotte
#5 St. John's (19-9) vs. #12 UAB (20-7) - Charlotte
#6 Xavier (22-6) vs. #11 Tennessee (17-12) - Washington D.C.
#7 George Mason (24-5) vs. #10 Washington (19-9) - Tulsa
#8 Kansas State (20-9) vs. #9 Michigan State (16-12) - Cleveland

WEST REGION - Anaheim
#1 Duke (26-2) vs. #16 Murray State (23-7) - Charlotte
#2 BYU (27-2) vs. #15 Long Island (24-5) - Denver
#3 Syracuse (24-6) vs. #14 Kent State (19-10) - Washington D.C.
#4 Louisville (2-7) vs. #13 Memphis (21-8)/Cleveland State (24-7) - Tampa
#5 Vanderbilt (21-7) vs. #12 Richmond (22-7) - Tampa
#6 Texas A&M (22-6) vs. #11 Gonzaga (21-9) - Washington D.C.
#7 West Virginia (18-10) vs. #10 Florida State (20-8) - Denver
#8 Old Dominion (24-6) vs. #9 Illinois (18-11) - Charlotte

GAMES TO WATCH

MONDAY
Kansas State at Texas - Both teams are safely in. This could help propel Kansas State up in seeding and Texas back in contention for a 1 seed.

TUESDAY
Ohio State at Penn State - A must have for Penn State, who is barely clinging on to the BUBBLE as it is.
Illinois at Purdue - Plain and simple, if the Illini get this win on the road, they will be dancing.
Alabama at Florida - The Tide need a win badly. They have this game and then at home versus Georgia. They need to at least go 1-1 but 2-0 would be better.
Vanderbilt at Kentucky - Good game with two teams firmly in the tourney. But how will this affect seeding if at all?
Missouri at Nebraska - Mizzou has been awful on the road all the season. Good news for the Huskers, who are great at home and in desperate need of a marquee win.
Baylor at Oklahoma State - The Bears took a step in the right direction with an upset win at home versus Texas A&M. A loss at OKST would be unacceptable.
Boston College at Virginia Tech - Two BUBBLE teams still fighting. BC needs it more than VT, who is coming off the upset of #1 Duke.

That's it for now. My hope is do another post after Tuesday's games but if I don't, it will be after Thursday's action as as you can see, not a ton of games on Monday and Tuesday that will affect the seeding. Of course, feel free to leave comments here on the blog or on Facebook or on my Twitter.

MB

2011 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 25

Welcome back to Barnes Bracketology. It has been a crazy 4 days in college basketball and the bracket has changed because of it. Lots of upsets have shaken up the seedings and who is in and who is out. As usual, I will note the changes in small recaps before each section. I also have included records, the order of the BUBBLE teams, and more to make this the most in-depth post yet.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Not one change in this category. All of these teams are safe and no team in the past week took any real strides into joining this group. so for now, still just 25 strong.

LOCKS (25): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

AUTOS: A couple changes were made in this category, and you'll notice them in the italics. UTEP is out as my projection to win Conference USA after two losses in a row. I replaced them with Memphis. Also out is Hampton in the MEAC, replaced by Bethune Cookman.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (23): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - George Mason, Conference USA - Memphis, Horizon - Cleveland State, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Fairfield, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Bethune Cookman, Missouri Valley - Missouri State, Northeast -Long Island, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Charleston, Southland - McNeese State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic, WAC - Utah State, WCC -St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: This group has no doubt seen some change as lots of teams had some big wins or some bad losses. Among the good wins, Marquette (at UConn), Tennessee (at Vanderbilt), Cincinnati (at Georgetown), Gonzaga (at St. Mary's) and Kansas State (at Nebraska). Road wins versus teams already projected in the tournament are always going to move you up in the bracket. Now among the bad losses, Florida State (at Maryland), Minnesota (vs. Michigan State), and Nebraska (vs. Kansas State). The teams that have been added to this list will be in italics. Again, this list is on order as well.

AT-LARGE (20): UNLV, Cncinnati, Old Dominion, West Virginia, Washington, Kansas State, Michigan State, UCLA, Tennessee, Illinois, Alabama, Marquette, Gonzaga, Florida State, Georgia, Butler, Colorado State, UAB, Virginia Tech, and Minnesota.

BUBBLE WATCH

For the first time, I have put the BUBBLE teams in order. This is important as this is how I see the teams that are fighting for an AT-LARGE spot. This is a very fluid category as teams will move up and down often until Selection Sunday. For instance, Gonzaga went from a BUBBLE to an AT-LARGE with its big win over St. Mary's. On the flipside, a team like Boston College who was close to becoming an AT-LARGE team lost a bad one at home to Miami (FL), putting them near the bottom of this list. If any new teams are added to this list, which is possible, they will be in italics but for now, here is the order. Remember, this can include teams in the AUTO category in the event that they do not win their conference tournament.

BUBBLE (39): George Mason, UNLV, Cincinnati, Utah State, Old Dominion, West Virginia, Washington, Kansas State, Michigan State, UCLA, Tennessee, Memphis, Illinois, St. Mary's, Alabama, Marquette, Gonzaga, Florida State, Georgia, Butler, Colorado State, UAB, Virginia Tech, Cleveland State, Minnesota, Richmond, Southern Miss, Nebraska, Clemson, Maryland, Penn State, Missouri State, Dayton, VCU, Wichita State, Boston College, Baylor, UTEP and Valparaiso.

SEEDING

You will see some changes here for sure. Among the top seeds, the biggest move is Purdue has moved up to a 2 seed while Georgetown has fallen after losing at home to Cincinnati. Florida is up to a 3 seed while UConn falls down. Syracuse also moves up to a 4 seed, replacing Vanderbilt. Other teams have made slight moves up and and down, and they will be reflected below. Also, I made a mistake in scheduling BYU in the East region in my bracket. That is not allowed as BYU cannot play on Sundays due to religious reasons, meaning they must play in places that are Thurs/Sat so they have been moved to the Southeast region. Playing in Denver is still good as that site plays on Thurs/Sat.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), Big 12 (5), MWC (4), ACC (4), Pac-10 (3), C-USA (3), A-10 (2), Colonial (2), Horizon (2), WCC (2)


(click on bracket to enlarge)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHEAST vs. SOUTHWEST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

Team has moved up since last post
Team has moved down since last post

EAST REGION - Newark
#1 Ohio State (26-2) vs. #16 Bethune-Cookman (17-11)/Murray State (22-7) - Cleveland
#2 Notre Dame (22-5) vs. #15 Fairfield (22-5) - Chicago
#3 Florida (22-5) vs. #14 Vermont (22-6) - Tampa
#4 Louisville (21-7) vs. #13 Harvard (20-4) - Tucson
#5 North Carolina (21-6) vs. #12 Missouri State (22-7) - Tucson
#6 Missouri (22-6) vs. #11 Marquette (17-11) - Tampa
#7 Temple (21-6) vs. #10 Illinois (17-11) - Chicago
#8 Washington (19-8) vs. #9 Kansas State (19-9) - Cleveland

SOUTHEAST REGION - New Orleans
#1 Pittsburgh (25-3) vs. #16 McNeese State (17-9)/Texas Southern (15-10) - Cleveland
#2 Purdue (23-5) vs. #15 Long Island (23-5) - Chicago
#3 BYU (26-2) vs. #14 Coastal Carolina (25-4) - Denver
#4 Arizona (23-5) vs. #13 Belmont (26-4) - Denver
#5 Texas A&M (22-5) vs. #12 Georgia (18-9) - Denver
#6 St. John's (18-9) vs. #11 Florida State (19-8) - Denver
#7 George Mason (24-5) vs. #10 St. Mary's (22-7) - Chicago
#8 Utah State (25-3) vs. #9 Michigan State (16-11) - Cleveland

SOUTHWEST REGION - San Antonio
#1 Texas (24-4) vs. #16 Long Beach State (18-10) - Tulsa
#2 San Diego State (27-1) vs. #15 Bucknell (21-8) - Tucson
#3 Wisconsin (21-6) vs. #14 Charleston (22-8) - Washington D.C.
#4 Syracuse (23-6) vs. #13 Cleveland State (23-7) - Tampa
#5 Kentucky (19-8) vs. #12 UAB (19-7)/Virginia Tech (18-8) - Tampa
#6 Villanova (21-7) vs. #11 Gonzaga (20-9) - Washington D.C.
#7 Cincinnati (22-6) vs. #10 Alabama (19-8) - Tucson
#8 Old Dominion (23-6) vs. #9 UCLA (20-8) - Tulsa

WEST REGION - Anaheim
#1 Duke (26-2) vs. #16 Montana (20-8) - Charlotte
#2 Kansas (26-2) vs. #15 Florida Atlantic (20-9) - Tulsa
#3 Georgetown (21-7) vs. #14 Kent State (19-9) - Charlotte
#4 UConn (20-7) vs. #13 Oakland (21-9) - Washington D.C.
#5 Vanderbilt (20-7) vs. #12 Butler (20-9) - Washington D.C.
#6 Xavier (21-6) vs. #11 Colorado State (18-9)/Minnesota (17-10) - Charlotte
#7 UNLV (21-7) vs. #10 Tennessee (17-11) - Tulsa
#8 West Virginia (17-10) vs. #9 Memphis (21-7) - Charlotte

GAMES TO WATCH

FRIDAY
Harvard at Brown - Brown is the only team to hand Princeton a loss in the Ivy League this season. Could they do the same to Harvard?
Cornell at Princeton - With the regular season determining who gets the automatic bid for the league, Princeton can't afford a slip-up against the Big Red.

SATURDAY
Duke at Virginia Tech - Duke is firmly in. VT is anything but. A win here would do wonders for their chances.
BYU at San Diego State - Game of the weekend that no one knows about. Winner here is all but guaranteed a 2 seed and keeps hope alive for a 1 seed.
Arizona at UCLA - Zona just lost a bad one at USC. This may be the perfect time for UCLA to pull off the upset that gets them that much closer to locking up their spot.
Syracuse at Georgetown - This one is all about seeding. Georgetown needs to stop the bleeding while Syracuse is trending up.
Florida at Kentucky - It's not impossible for Florida to grab a 2 seed, especially with a quality road win in Lexington.
St. John's at Villanova - The Red Storm are looking to move up yet another seed line. Nova is trying to stop their slide down.
Texas A&M at Baylor - Baylor is getting near that territory of needing to win every game left. This would be huge for them.
Missouri at Kansas State - Missouri is awful on the road. Perfect time for Kansas State to pull off another upset win at home and get another Top-50 RPI victory.
Wichita State at Missouri State - Could be a dreaded "elimination game" with these two. One should get the automatic bid. The other probably ends up on the outside looking in.
Memphis at UTEP - UTEP lost 2 bad games this week. For bubble chances, they need this one. Memphis looks better with this road win as well.
Michigan at Minnesota - Minnesota is falling fast. A win at home against UM must happen or expect them to have to make a deep run in the conference tournament again.

SUNDAY
Pittsburgh at Louisville - The Panthers are a 1 seed now. They may not be with a loss at Louisville, who is barely hanging on to their 4 seed.
Purdue at Michigan State - Purdue is a solid 2 seed now but a loss at an unranked MSU team would hurt. MSU really adds to the resume with this upset win at home.
UConn at Cincinnati - I'm not afraid to say it. If Cincinnati wins this game, they are a LOCK to make the tournament. Too many good wins to leave them out.
Xavier at Dayton - Dayton is hanging on by a thread as a BUBBLE. If they want to serious contenders for an AT-LARGE, this is an upset they must have.

That's all for now. Hope this post satisfied all your bracketology needs. It better, cause it took me forever to do. Next post will come Monday after this weekend's games. Until then, enjoy the basketball this weekend.

MB

MB

2011 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 21

Welcome to the first of (hopefully) many posts of what I like to call Barnes Bracketology. This is my third year doing this right here on the blog and I am excited to do it again. It's a tedious and time-consuming task but one that I don't mind because it challenges me...and I love challenges.

If this is your first time checking out my Bracketology, here is how I do things. I read the NCAA procedures on how to compile the bracket each year, as they tend to change year-by-year. That is especially true this year as the field expands to 68. After I read them, I start compiling my list of teams I think are in consideration. From there, I start to pick the 68 teams that I think will make it, before ultimately seeding the teams and placing them in the bracket. Now normally, I don't put them in a bracket until 2 weeks before Selection Sunday. But I am getting better and faster at this process that I have my 2nd bracket done already!

My other big ground rule is that I vow to not look at any other website (ESPN, SI, Fox Sports, etc...) and check their bracket predictions. Trust me, it's hard but I will not look until my final bracket is done. I do this so that my work is my work. I have no temptation to cheat off someone else or get ideas from someone else when I feel lazy. Now I will compare with friends' predictions so if you would like to join me in my quest, please do so!

So there you go. I will be posting often, especially as we get closer to Selection Sunday, when I will post daily. Comments are always welcome, especially if it is to correct a glaring error.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: This group is for teams that whether they win their conference tournament or not, are going to receive a bid to the tournament. With Selection Sunday 3 weeks away, this list may seem short but it needs to be. I do my best to not move teams in this category. If you're a lock, you are a LOCK. As the games go on, you will see teams added to this list. But for now, this is the list and in no particular order. It kind of goes by conference now but as teams get added, they will just go to the end of this list.

LOCKS (25): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

AUTOS: This group is for those teams that will receive their bid by winning their conference tournament. Now this is a tough one to predict as I clearly do not have knowledge of who is going to ultimately win the smaller conferences' tournaments. So what I do normally is just go with the team with the best record in the conference when I make a bracket. Once the conference tournaments get going, this will change a ton as favorites fall. Some will move to the AT-LARGE section, others will stay in the BUBBLE section, and others will never be seen again.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (23): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - George Mason, Conference USA - UTEP, Horizon - Cleveland State, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Fairfield, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Missouri State, Northeast -Long Island, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Charleston, Southland - McNeese State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic, WAC - Utah State, WCC -St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: This group is obviously for the teams I think are going to make the field by earning an AT-LARGE bid. This is in order but beware, these will fluctuate quite often as I continue to get a handle on these teams. Again, these are in order from feeling safe to not feeling so safe. Also, remember the last 4 teams in this category will be playing in the 2 "First Four" games to earn a spot in the newly-named second round.

AT-LARGE (20): West Virginia, UNLV, Illinois, Washington, Cincinnati, Old Dominion, Minnesota, UCLA, Georgia, Kansas State, Florida State, Michigan State, Tennessee, Alabama, Memphis, Nebraska, Marquette, Butler, Colorado State, and UAB.

BUBBLE WATCH

Now, the way the BUBBLE works is fairly simple. These are the teams that will be worrying come Selection Sunday. Every team in the AT-LARGE category will be in here as well because well, they are not guaranteed a spot, but instead just in my projected bracket. Some AUTOS will be here as well as they will become BUBBLE teams if they do not win their conference tournaments as they are expected to. Normally, I would put these in order but not this time.

BUBBLE (39): West Virginia, UNLV, Illinois, Washington, Cincinnati, Old Dominion, Minnesota, UCLA, Georgia, Kansas State, Florida State, Michigan State, Tennessee, Alabama, Memphis, Nebraska, Marquette, Butler, Colorado State, UAB, Richmond, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland, Baylor, VCU, Southern Miss, Valparaiso, Wichita State, Gonzaga, Penn State, Dayton, St. Mary's, Utah State, George Mason, Cleveland State, UTEP, and Missouri State.

SEEDING

This is no doubt the hardest part about this process. Seeding the teams is tough because so many team sometimes deserve higher seeds but there are just simply not enough slots. Plus, you have to change some seeds to follow the procedures set forth by the NCAA. And without a full committee, I find myself using RPI, team's record, SOS, and my gut as the real guide to where these teams end up. It has worked well the past 2 years and see nothing changing this year.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), Big 12 (5), MWC (4), ACC (3), Pac-10 (3), C-USA (3), A-10 (2), Colonial (2)

(click on bracket to enlarge)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHEAST vs. SOUTHWEST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

Now in future posts, I will post the records of the teams here and games to watch for the next day or 2 but for now, little tired so not gonna happen right now. For now, just click on the bracket.

That's all for now. I'll update this probably Wednesday or Thursday night after some of these big games that could affect seeding. Hope you enjoyed it and check back soon.

MB