Are these the glory days?

It hit me when I was flying out to Los Angeles for vacation. Are these the glory days in sports for me? Is this going to be the best 3-5 years for all my favorite sports teams combined? Because if so, I want to make sure I cherish EVERY moment there is.

I've been alive since 1986 and in my lifetime, have only seen 1 of my favorite teams win a championship. That being the 2002 Ohio State Buckeyes football team. (Note: The Colts did win the Super Bowl in 2007 but at that time, I did not recognize myself as a Colts fan. Also, I'm not including my high school Bishop Hartley, that has won state titles in multiple sports. Strictly professional sports). That's pretty sad for a guy who is 26 going on 27. Just think about all those fans in Boston, L.A., New York, and even Baltimore that have seen more championships than me. It's downright depressing.

But I think the tide is turning, I really do. There is a reason to be optimistic about every one of my teams and that is something I don't think I could ever say.

So in order, from level of optimism, I will break down why I am so excited and hopeful about what is to come. Maybe then you'll see why I consider these my glory days in sports.

1. Ohio State Football (Last Championship: 2002)

With my job, it's hard to still at times consider myself a fan. But who am I kidding, I was born a Buckeye fan, grew up a Buckeye fan and will forever be a Buckeye fan. What I will never be is a Buckeye (I'm a Bobcat) and I'm just fine with that.

I still remember that championship game in January 2003 like it was yesterday. Watching it with my sister and dad, muting Keith Jackson and Dan Fouts to hear the OT call from Paul Keels and Jim Lachey, and waking my mom up with our frantic yelling when Matt Wilhelm knocked the Ken Dorsey pass down to the ground.

Since then, OSU has made it to 2 title games and by the end of the first quarter in both games, you knew it just wasn't gonna be your night.

But with the addition of Urban Meyer, the Buckeyes program is back.

In a season I thought the high-water mark was 10-2, the Bucks went 12-0. It wasn't overly impressive-looking but 12-0 doesn't have to be. My gut tells me the Buckeyes will be playing for a title this year, next year or both. It's a combination of great talent, great coaching, and a weak schedule that has me so confident. I don't know if they will win a championship (Alabama being the mighty roadblock) but 'd like to think they would have a bit more compete level than the OSU teams that lost to Florida and LSU.

2. Indianapolis Colts (Last Championship: 2006)

Full disclosure: I was a bit of an NFL nomad growing up. What I know is that I liked the Colts, the Niners and the Bengals and I hated the Browns and Cowboys. But if anyone ever asked me my favorite team, I never had a real answer.

It wasn't until watching the Colts win the Super Bowl with my dad (born and raised in Indy) in February 2007 that it dawned on me on what I was missing in not having a favorite team. So I concocted this stupid, idiotic 3-year plan that would allow me to work my way into saying I am a Colts fan.

Well, that that 3-year plan ended after the 2011 season, allowing me to declare my full fandom for the team in 2012 and what a season it was.

Andrew Luck has proven to be the quarterback many hoped he would be and automatically turned the team into a playoff contender. Vick Ballard became a reliable runningback and Reggie Wayne was just Reggie Wayne. Add in other rookie standouts like T.Y. Hilton, Cody Fleener, Dwayne Allen and Ohio Bobcat product LaVon Brazill and I've got a lot to be excited about.

Now is this team going to win the Super Bowl next year? No way, not with their defense where it is. But 2-3 years? They've no doubt got a chance. And unlike some of these other sports, the NFL seems to always be wide open. It doesn't take long to turn things around and it only takes getting hot at the right time to win a ring. Add in a coach like Chuck Pagano who this team respects and admires and I'd say the Lombardi Trophy is coming to Indy sometime soon.

3. Ohio State Basketball (Last Championship: 1960)

Much like what I wrote in football, sometimes it's hard to identify myself as an OSU basketball fan but one of my favorite sports memories growing up was that (now vacated) Final Four in 1999 with Scoonie Penn, Michael Redd and company. It was the first time I really identified myself as an OSU basketball fan, considering there was not much to cheer about early in the '90s.

Since then, and especially since Thad Matta has taken over, this team has been among the best in the nation. A runner-up finish in 2007, another Final Four in 2012, and a multitude of Sweet 16 appearances and Big Ten Tournament championships.

Now, I know this seems a bit low considering they are in the Sweet 16 right now with a very good chance to make it to the Final Four. But I'm trying to temper my expectations of this team. They are not the best in the nation but the national champion is not necessarily the best team every year.

With that said, I love the direction of this program. Thad Matta is no doubt one of the best coaches in the nation. Early on, he was known as this great recruiter that had the talent but couldn't coach them. Well, that's a joke. The guy can flat-out do it all. He's recruited some great players (and people might I add) and developed some guys past what anyone thought they would do coming out of high school. It may not show in terms of NBA draft picks but it shows on the court before they graduate.

I'm a little concerned by the look of the recruiting classes, as they aren't very "sexy" looking but that's where I trust he and his coaching staff to coach them into great players. I also know the tournament is as chaotic and unpredictable as they come so winning a championship is incredibly hard. 2 years ago, I thought OSU was no doubt the best team in the land but one bad half against a talented but not better Kentucky team ended their season prematurely. I'm not sure they will ever win a title under Thad Matta but whether they do or don't won't change my opinion of him or what he's done with the program.

4. Indiana Pacers (Last Championship: 1973 - ABA)

My love for the Pacers goes all the way back to birth. I never like the Cavs. Their style of play and lack of superstars just didn't grab me at the young age it needed to. So instead, I gravitated to the Pacers, the favorite team of nearly my entire extended family. And while I could not see many of their games on TV, I followed them all season long.

There were plenty of high moments from the numerous Pacers-Knicks battles and 2000 NBA Finals to low points such as the Malice in the Palace and Larry Bird's need to draft/sign practically every White American college basketball player (Tyler Hansbrough, Mike Dunleavy, Josh McRoberts, Travis Diener, Miles Plumlee, Jeff Foster, Troy Murphy, Scot Pollard) as if he was trying to find the next him.

But lately, there have been nothing but high moments and reason for optimism. Frank Vogel is one of the best young coaches in the game. Brian Shaw, his top assistant, is going to be a great head coach in the league someday as well. Paul George has grown into an All-Star player (and I hated that draft pick) and David West has been the veteran leader the young team needs. George Hill, Roy Hibbert, Lance Stephenson, Tyler Hansbrough, and others provide a solid rotation and Danny Granger, when healthy, is a nice piece as well.

What I love about this team is the way they play. It is a physical brand of basketball and one focused on defense. They don't try to outscore team. They try to outwork teams. And it is working. They have been 2nd or 3rd in the Eastern conference all season long and beat the Heat 2 out of 3 times this season. Last year, they led the Heat 2-1 in their best of 7 series before falling 4-2 and many have called them the biggest threat in the East to the defending champs.

They don't get any respect on TV in terms of coverage as they are rarely on national television but soon they will in the playoffs, where they have already clinched their spot. And while my focus is on this year and upsetting the Heat, this team (if West re-signs) can be good for the next 2-3 years at least. And again, they are young. I don't know if it will be enough to beat the Heat but if it is, I'd love to see them get a chance at a title.

5. Cleveland Indians (Last Championship: 1948)

Well it has been well-documented how long Indians fans have waited for a championship. Thankfully, my wait did not start until 1986. For those who have been waiting since 1948, God Bless You.

I've had some great moments with this team. 2 World Series appearances and some amazing regular season and playoff games I've seen in person. But I'm not sure I'm ever going to get over losing Game 7 in the 1997 World Series (only time I've ever cried about one of my professional teams losing) and losing the 2007 ALCS to the Red Sox despite being up 3-1 and having our 2 best pitchers going in Games 5 and 6. I already had the World Series tickets bought too!

Since that 2007 season, it's been a bit of a mixed bag from the Tribe. Some strong starts but frustrating finishes. We've gone through 3 managers (Wedge, Acta and now Francona), signed or traded for a lot of guys who did not pan out (Kotchman, Damon, Lowe, LaPorta, Kearns, Wood) and traded away some real studs (Martinez, Lee, Sabathia, Choo) but also traded for/drafted some some nice, young pieces (Brantley, Santana, Choo, Masterson, McAllister, Perez, Chisenhall, Pestano, Kipnis, Cabrera).

And now 6 years after that last playoff appearance, Indians fans have a reason to be hopeful again. Terry Francona has come in and given this team a much-needed veteran voice and winning presence in the dugout. They spent some money (!) on the free agent market and nabbed the likes of Nick Swisher, Brett Myers and Mark Reynolds. And when you thought they may be done, right before spring training began, they picked up Michael Bourn. Add those names to what was already a solid, young core and there is reason to believe again.

Now granted, there is reason to doubt as well. The pitching staff looks shaky and there are a whole lot of strikeouts in the lineup. But I'm not looking at that. I'm focusing on the positives. Positives like a guy like Lonnie Chisenhall healthy and getting his first real crack at starting at third base. Positives like Scott Kazmir, back in baseball and having a good enough spring to earn the 5th spot in the rotation. Positives like the potential for this team to steal a LOT of bases with speedsters like Bourn, Drew Stubbs and Jason Kipnis on the basepaths.

I don't know if this team is even close to a World Series but what they are closer to is contention and that's where it needs to begin. Give us Tribe fans a reason to get excited and then go from there.

6. Columbus Blue Jackets (Last Championship: Never)

It's honestly almost laughable how bad this franchise has been since its inception in 2001. In a sport you have a better chance to make the playoffs than to miss them, the CBJ have only made it once. And in that one appearance, they were swept. And it's not like they have been close to making the playoffs. They normally don't sniff the top 8 spots. Instead, finishing near the bottom and yet somehow, not winning the lottery and drafting that player that turns the franchise into a winner.

Yes, all of that is depressing and leaves one to wonder why would this team ever improve or become a winner? The simple answer: it can't get any worse. But in all honestly, there is a reason to be optimistic the Jackets are turning the corner (finally).

First off, management. For the first time, I believe in who is leading the team. Doug MacLean was a great name but I'm not sure he was the right guy. Scott Howson was unwilling to make the big move it seemed. John Davidson though has proven he can win and knows how to win. Secondly, coaching. I thought the CBJ made a mistake with Scott Arniel. I felt like Kevin Dineen was the guy. Well, hindsight says I may have been right. Regardless, I like Todd Richards on the bench and from all indications, so do the players. You don't hear of any spats with he and the players. He preaches discipline and process but also enjoyment of the game. I can get down with that.

Most importantly, I like this group of players. All those young guys that we were all waiting to mature are doing it right now. Ryan Johansen has been really good. Matt Calvert has been consistent. Cam Atkinson has shown flashes and he's fighting injury. Others too have played well and allowed this team to fight in every game. But it's also the new faces like Artem Anisimov, Brandon Dubinsky and Nick Foligno that give you reason to smile. Add in a solid and deep defensive group and well, I'm starting to see something here.

Oh, and how about that goalie. Sergei Bobrovsky has been absolutely amazing in net. He may be a Vezina candidate by time this season ends with his play. Playing in front of a team that struggles scoring goals, he has been nothing short of a brick wall, keeping the CBJ in games they have no business being in. If he is the real deal, the Jackets will be contenders for years to come.

Now, this team as it is is NOT a playoff-caliber team. I know they are very close now but if they don't make it, that's fine. If they do, that's fine. I'm looking toward the future and what I see is this: A president and GM that know how to build a winning team. A coach who can win with less and get his team to fight for 60 minutes nearly every night. Players that are scrappy and tired of losing. A goalie that is a real difference-maker. And 3 first round draft picks that could really alter this franchise. Look out Columbus. This may be the start of something great.

7. Ohio Basketball (Last Championship: Never)

I did not get invested in Ohio BBall until 2004 when I became a student at Ohio's first and finest university. It did not take me long to be all-in though as Leon Williams tipped in a ball that sent the Bobcats into the Big Dance and a 1st round game vs. Florida that they nearly won thanks to a furious 2nd half comeback.

Since then though, it's only gotten better. The hire of John Groce led to 4 amazing years of basketball in Athens. 2 NCAA Tournament appearances. 3 wins, including a monumental upset of 3-seed Georgetown, a satisfying victory over 4-seed Michigan and a boring but beautiful win over 12-seed South Florida to send the 'Cats into the Sweet 16. It would end there though one free throw could have extended the run to the Elite Eight but hey, what a run it was.

Groce has since left for Illinois and while the whole team came back, the Bobcats failed to make the NCAA tournament under new leadership in Jim Christian. It was a disappointment but also allowed to appreciate that much more what that team did in 2012.

D.J. Cooper, one of the all-time greats in Ohio history, is now gone as are 3 other players who saw significant playing time so there are pieces to replace. Not to mention what remains to be seen is if this year's awful road record was just an aberration or going to become a staple in the Christian era.

Now I don't expect the Bobcats to be winning a national title anytime soon. I'm a realist. But what I do expect and hope for is a MAC title every other year at least. They have set the bar that high now. And an NCAA win every now and then would be nice too.

If Groce were still the coach of this team, I'd be more optimistic because I love the guy and his coaching style that much. I still like Christian and still think he will keep this program winning but it's hard to project the unknown. We shall see.

8. Ohio Football (Last Championship: Never)

The turnaround this program has taken from when Brian Knorr left to when Frank Solich took over is nothing short of remarkable. They were an absolute laughing stock but now, are a bona fide contender in the MAC every single season.

What's still missing from the program is that MAC championship. They've come oh so close but until they do, I know Solich will not be satisfied with the success he's had. Thankfully, the teams have won a couple bowl games, something that went extinct from the program, so there is plenty of positive momentum now that should carry over into the 2013 season.

What makes me hopeful about this team too is that Ohio football is slowly becoming known not just in the state but in the region. Solich is a big reason for that. He was a big name when he was hired in Athens and his ability to lead this team to bowl games has allowed the Ohio name to hit national airwaves. It also has to help in recruiting you'd think. And the best part is that you know he is going nowhere. I'm sure he could have left for another job if he wanted to by now but instead, has decided to stay in Athens.

As far as what I expect from them, it's pretty simple. Winning records, bowl games and MAC championships. The first 2 I want every year. The last one every now and then. I know it's tough to win so they get a break. I'd love for OU to pull off what Northern Illinois did this past year and break into a big-name bowl game but again, that's not necessary. Just having a relevant program that wins consistently and cracks ESPN or ESPN2 every now and then is enough.

2013 Barnes Bracketology - RECAP

Another year of Barnes Bracketology has come and gone and I must say, I am relieved. My nights have freed up a bit and I no longer look at RPI and SOS numbers. I'm also satisfied with the job I did in the 7 (!) weeks. As usual, I like to put up a recap post with my thoughts on my bracket and thoughts on the actual bracket.

First, take a look at the goals that I give myself when I do this.

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region
2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots
3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct
4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup

So how did I do? Let's compare the brackets. First, here was my final bracket:

And here is the 2013 NCAA Bracket:

So this is how I did with my goals.

1. I nailed the top 4 seeds and placed them in the correct regions. I also correctly picked Louisville as the overall number one seed.
2. I did not satisfy this goal though I think that's more of on the committee than me. I nailed 65 teams within 2 spots of their seed. And of the 65, I got 45 exactly right, including every 1, 15 and 16 seed. The 3 teams I had off by 2 spots or more were Villanova, California and Oregon.
3. I picked 12 of the 16 second/third round locations correctly. I missed New Mexico playing in Salt Lake (had them in Austin, which I changed late in the process), Marquette in Lexington (thought they would be a 5 seed and irrelevant in the discussion), Florida in Austin (had them in Lexington instead), and Saint Louis in San Jose (had them as a 5 seed).
4. Last year, I picked 3 matchups on the nose. This year, not so lucky. But I came close often. When you pick 45 of the 68 teams on their exact seed line, all it takes is the committee to move one team and I had an exact match.

As far as the actual bracket, I have some beefs with the committee. I really think they undervalued Oregon. I had them as a 7 seed, which seemed warranted after winning the Pac-12 tournament and finishing second in the regular season standings. How they are seeded lower than Colorado (a 10 seed), I have no idea. I also think Villanova is too high. A 9 seed for a team that was 20-13? No way. Maybe an 11 or better yet, a 12 like I had them but not a 9. I'm okay with the California seeding at 12 (I had them at a 9) but I am SHOCKED they placed the Bears in San Jose, just minutes from their campus. And as if that wasn't enough, they have them playing UNLV, who they already played this season! A big no-no in the NCAA Procedures for creating the bracket. No matter what excuse the committee uses, you can work around that and find a better matchup.

I also do not fully understand why Ohio and Gonzaga are in the same bracket if they were the 4th and 8th ranked teams on their seed list. If you use a true S-Curve to seed the teams, Louisville should get the honor of playing the "weakest" 2-seed. Instead, they get Duke, who some felt could have been a 1-seed. I think that's an error on the committee's part. Beyond that, the bracket looks fine and they did a great job keeping teams close, especially when it comes to the First Four winners, who only have to go to Kansas City or Auburn Hills from Dayton.

Lastly, I know this is what you all care about. I correctly projected 67 of the 68 teams in the tournament. The only one I missed was Middle Tennessee, who was my first one out. They dropped out when Ole Miss won themselves in. I saw where Lunardi went a perfect 68 for 68, including correctly projecting the last 4 teams in. Impressive stuff. But with that said, this was a fairly easy year. The teams that did not make it had so many warts, the final teams in just made sense. You'll notice, there was not much outrage this year from the so-called experts about certain teams missing the dance.

And finally, please remember that this practice in bracketology is not about projected who should be in or out. It's instead trying to predict what the committee will do, which is nearly impossible because you don't know what those members are thinking each year. It can be tedious and tiresome but I love it. Can't wait for next year.

Oh and in case you care, I'm picking Louisville, Ohio State, Kansas and Miami (FL) in my Final Four with Louisville beating Kansas to win it all.

HAPPY MARCH MADNESS!

MB

2013 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 14

 

If you're the kind of person who thinks real upsets and "madness" doesn't happen until after Selection Sunday, you're crazy. Just last night, Nebraska and Utah advanced to their conference tournament quarterfinals. The WAC saw their dominant top 2 seeds fall on the same night. And even crazier, the MEAC saw their top 4 seeds all lose on the same night! And we still have 3 more days of games before the field is revealed!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I was remarking to a friend that I am getting dangerously close to the threshold of LOCKS. I like to keep this group at 40 and leave some wiggle room as we head into the weekend. Well, instead of 40, I'm gonna be at 43 because I am actually adding another. Iowa State beat a good Oklahoma team and considering how strong the Big 12 was, it seems fair the 5th best team gets in, especially with their solid resume. Saint Mary's is still very close to leaving this group.

These are in order of how I see them.

LOCKS (43): Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville, Kansas, Georgetown, Miami (FL), Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida, New Mexico, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Marquette, Arizona, Syracuse, Wisconsin, UNLV, Butler, Notre Dame, UCLA, Saint Louis, Pittsburgh, Memphis, North Carolina, Creighton, VCU, San Diego State, Colorado State, Missouri, NC State, Illinois, Colorado, Oregon, Wichita State,  California, Temple, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Saint Mary's


AUTOS: Thanks to more upsets, we have more changes among this group.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Liberty, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - James Madison, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Ohio, MEAC - Morgan State, Northeast - LIU Brooklyn, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Western Kentucky, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Same group just minus Iowa State that graduated up to LOCK status. The order of the teams stays the same from yesterday despite a loss by Villanova to a very good Louisville team and a win by Tennessee by hapless Mississippi State.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (5): Villanova, Boise State, Kentucky, La Salle, Tennessee

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: And then there were 13. A nice manageable number for the final weekend I think. While we lost 3 teams due to conference tournament losses (Arkansas, Arizona State and Xavier), we welcome back Middle Tennessee who deserves to be here just thanks to their top 30 RPI. Honestly, they should have never left with an RPI that high. They will most likely not get in but to say they are not in the discussion would be wrong.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (13): Villanova, Boise State, Kentucky, La Salle, Tennessee, Virginia, Baylor, Ole Miss, Alabama, Maryland, Iowa, Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (5), A-10 (5), MWC (5), Pac-12 (5), ACC (4), SEC (4), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs.SOUTH
MIDWEST vs. WEST

**Duke is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

NC State vs. Virginia (ACC Quarterfinals)

UTEP vs. Southern Miss (C-USA Semifinals)

Butler vs. La Salle (A-10 Quarterfinals)

Tennessee vs. Alabama (SEC Quarterfinals)

Tulsa vs. Memphis (C-USA Semifinals) - BID STEALER ALERT!

Maryland vs. Duke (ACC Quarterfinals)

Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky (SEC Quarterfinals)

Iowa vs. Michigan State (Big Ten Quarterfinals)

Missouri vs. Ole Miss (SEC Quarterfinals)

Of course, there are a lot more games than this on TV Friday but these are the biggest ones for those BUBBLE teams and how they go is how the bracket will go come Sunday. Also, look out for a number of upsets that may hurt some teams as far as their seeding but for now, the pressure is on those BUBBLE teams to get the job done tomorrow against opponents who are most likely already in the field.

MB

2013 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 13

Championship Week is in full force now and that means it is do or die time for a lot of teams. Whether that "die" is the end of a season or a berth in another postseason tournament depends on the team. regardless, it is not the Big Dance, which of course comes with opportunity to win a national championship. This is no doubt the toughest week for a bracketologist as you try to equate what one tournament loss and win can do for a team in the seeding process.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I'm adding 2 more. Minnesota for its overall solid play during the season. A ton of big wins coupled with a lot of losses. But the big wins should carry them in, especially for a team from the best conference in the NCAA this year. Also, Cincinnati avoided the bad loss vs. Providence in the Big East tourney and I think is safely in. I will say I'm getting nervous about Saint Mary's. I added them to this list and then after further review, don't feel nearly as good about that decision. For now, they will stay.

These are in order of how I see them.

LOCKS (42): Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Louisville, Kansas, Georgetown, Miami (FL), Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida, New Mexico, Marquette, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Syracuse, Wisconsin, UNLV, Butler, Pittsburgh, Saint Louis, UCLA, Notre Dame, Memphis, North Carolina, Creighton, VCU, San Diego State, Colorado State, Missouri, Colorado, NC State, Illinois, Oregon, California, Wichita State, Oklahoma, Temple, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Saint Mary's


AUTOS: As expected, numerous changes in this group as upsets happen in the conference tournaments. It is just nearly impossible to predict how they will end up as even the top seeds lose in the first round.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Liberty, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - James Madison, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Ohio, MEAC - Hampton, Northeast - LIU Brooklyn, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Western Kentucky, WAC - Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Same group just minus two teams that graduated up to LOCK status. The order of the teams has moved a little though as expected.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (6): Iowa State, Villanova, Boise State, Kentucky, La Salle, Tennessee

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: This group continues to get smaller. Yesterday, we said goodbye to Providence whose loss in the first round of the Big East tourney solidified its spot in the NIT. A couple more bubbles will likely burst and many of them thanks to the play in the SEC tourney.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (18): Iowa State, Villanova, Boise State, Kentucky, La Salle, Tennessee, Virginia, Baylor, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Alabama, Maryland, Iowa, Southern Miss, Xavier, Arizona State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (5), A-10 (5), MWC (5), Pac-12 (5), ACC (4), SEC (4), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs.SOUTH
MIDWEST vs. WEST

**Duke is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Villanova vs. Louisville (Big East Quarters)
Cincinnati vs. Georgetown (Big East Quarters)
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State (Big 12 Quarters)
Texas Tech vs. Kansas (Big 12 Quarters)
Tulane vs. Memphis (CUSA Quarters)
Arizona State vs. UCLA (Pac-12 Quarters)
Minnesota vs. Illinois (Big Ten First Round)
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 Quarters)
UAB vs. Southern Miss (CUSA Quarters)
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee (SEC First Round)
St. Joseph's vs. Xavier (A-10 First Round)
Wake Forest vs. Maryland (ACC First Round)
Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas (SEC First Round)
Northwestern vs. Iowa (Big Ten First Round)

Keep an eye on all the games above because they will play a big role on who gets in and who stays out. I'll (hopefully) have another update tomorrow. I leave for Chicago early in the morning so may not have time to post anything until I get there.

MB

2013 Barnes Bracketology: Bubble Watch

So what is it going to take for your favorite team to get off the bubble this week? That is certainly not a question one wants posed to them just days before Selection Sunday but it's the case for a dozen or so teams who have work to do in conference tournaments to help their case.


So in lieu of a full bracket projection, I will let you in on some of what makes my job so hard. I will break down the numbers on 14 bubble teams fighting for what I think is 4 spots.

Much like me, you cane make a decision on the 4 most worthy teams. Much of it comes down to your criteria of "most worthy". Is it their RPI? Or is it their strength of schedule (SOS)? How about their record away from home? Or maybe it's about how they're playing right now?

You be the judge. Here are the teams (in alphabetical order):

Alabama (20-11)
RPI: 61  SOS: 91  Non-Conference SOS: 82
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 1-4  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-7
Road W-L: 4-8  Last 12 Games: 8-4
Key Wins: Kentucky, Villanova*, Tennessee, Arkansas
Key Losses: Tulane, at Auburn, Dayton, Mercer, at Tennessee, at LSU, at Ole Miss 
Breakdown: The wins are solid are the RPI and SOS aren't terrible. But it just looks like an NIT resume. Take away a few of those bad losses and this team would be in much better shape. 

Arizona State (20-11)
RPI: 91  SOS: 124  Non-Conference SOS: 284
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-4  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-8
Road W-L: 4-6  Last 12 Games:5-7
Key Wins: Colorado (x 2), UCLA, California, Arkansas*
Key Losses: DePaul, at Utah, at USC, Washington (x 2), Stanford
Breakdown: The wins are good and there's not a plethora of bad losses. The big problem is that ASU didn't really play anyone in the non-conference. It inflates the win number but definitely not the RPI number, which is laughable for an at-large selection.



Arkansas (19-12)
RPI: 77  SOS: 82  Non-Conference SOS: 128
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-10
Road W-L: 1-9  Last 12 Games:7-5
Key Wins: Oklahoma, Florida, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee
Key Losses: at South Carolina, at Vanderbilt, Arizona State*, at Texas A&M, at Ole Miss, at Alabama, at LSU
Breakdown: They've beaten the best in the SEC. But they've also lost to some of the worst. The SOS is just okay but the record against the top 50 is solid. The red flag is the road record. Just one win on the road all season just smells like an unworthy team.

Baylor (18-13)
RPI: 62  SOS: 21  Non-Conference SOS: 47
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 3-10  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-10
Road W-L: 4-7  Last 12 Games: 4-8
Key Wins: at Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Kansas
Key Losses: Northwestern, at Texas, Charleston
Breakdown: 13 losses is a lot but considering 10 of them came from teams that will no doubt be in the tournament, it's not that bad. The SOS, in and out of conference, is solid. But again, 13 losses is a lot. Oh and ending the regular season 4-8 is doing them no favors either.

Iowa (20-11)
RPI: 76  SOS: 126  Non-Conference SOS: 312
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-8  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-8
Road W-L: 2-8  Last 12 Games: 7-5
Key Wins: Iowa State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois
Key Losses: at Virginia Tech, at Nebraska, at Purdue
Breakdown: If you look at those key wins, you're impressed. And the lack of bad losses is good too. But 312nd in non-conference SOS? Yeah, that's just awful. Most Big Ten teams have a SOS in the top 50. But Iowa's languishes at 126 because they loaded up on cupcakes. May keep them out of the dance.

Kentucky (21-10)
RPI: 50  SOS: 66  Non-Conference SOS: 70
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-4  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-9
Road W-L: 4-7  Last 12 Games: 8-4
Key Wins: Missouri, Florida, Tennessee
Key Losses: Georgia, Texas A&M, at Arkansas, at Alabama, Baylor
Breakdown: The numbers are good for an at-large. The wins are as well, especially when you consider all 3 came after Nerlens Noel's injury. But it's still a questionable enough resume to keep Wildcats fans on edge.

La Salle (21-8)
RPI: 39  SOS: 87  Non-Conference SOS: 115
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-7
Road W-L: 8-6  Last 12 Games: 9-3
Key Wins: Butler, at VCU, Villanova
Key Losses: Central Conn. St., at Xavier, at Charlotte, UMass, at Bucknell
Breakdown: They played in one of the toughest conferences, hence their great RPI number. And beating VCU on the road is great. The losses are troublesome but a winning road record, a quality finish to the regular season and near .500 record vs. the top-100 is positive news.

Maryland (20-11)
RPI: 83  SOS: 114  Non-Conference SOS: 296
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-5  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 3-9
Road W-L: 3-7  Last 12 Games: 5-7
Key Wins: NC State, Duke
Key Losses: Florida State (x 2), Virginia (x 2), at Boston College, at Georgia Tech
Breakdown: Remember who great that Maryland win over Duke was? Terps fans hope the committee does because besides their win at NC State, that's it. They did not fare well in conference and out of conference, they played next to no one.

Ole Miss (23-8)
RPI: 56  SOS: 151  Non-Conference SOS: 286
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 1-4  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-6
Road W-L: 6-6  Last 12 Games: 6-6
Key Wins: Missouri, Tennessee (x 2), Arkansas, Alabama
Key Losses: at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, at Texas A&M, at Indiana State
Breakdown: Ole Miss had such a great start to the season but has limped to the finish. Part of the reason for the great start was their lack of competition. Add that nugget to the fact that the SEC is weak and you get some awful numbers for the Rebels.

Southern Miss (23-8)
RPI: 36  SOS: 79  Non-Conference SOS: 71
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 0-5  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-7
Road W-L: 9-6  Last 12 Games: 8-4
Key Wins: None
Key Losses: at Marshall, at New Mexico State, at UCF
Breakdown: Another year, another great RPI number for Southern Miss. So why are they on the bubble? Look at that key win row. It's empty because they have zero wins against teams that are surely making the tournament. The numbers are deceiving. The lack of quality wins is not.

Villanova (18-12)
RPI: 51  SOS: 19  Non-Conference SOS: 151
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 5-7  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-10
Road W-L: 6-7  Last 12 Games: 7-5
Key Wins: Louisville, Syracuse, at UConn, Marquette, Georgetown
Key Losses: Columbia, at Seton Hall, Providence (x 2), Alabama*
Breakdown: The overall record does not look good but those key wins look great. Those alone may get 'Nova in the field. Add in a quality road record and the resume looks good. The non-conference schedule was not great but when you play in the Big East, you get a pass.

Virginia (21-10)
RPI: 68  SOS: 132  Non-Conference SOS: 302
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-2  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 8-3
Road W-L: 3-8  Last 12 Games: 7-5
Key Wins: at Wisconsin, North Carolina, NC State, Duke, Tennessee, Maryland (x 2)
Key Losses: at George Mason, Old Dominion*, at Wake Forest, at Clemson, Delaware, at Georgia Tech, at Boston College, at Florida State
Breakdown: The biggest enigma on this list. The key wins are flat out impressive. I see those and I put that team in the field. But that same team has those key losses. Just does make sense. Also, it's one thing to schedule so poorly in the non-conference. It's another thing to lose to some of those scrubs. 8-3 vs. the top 100. 4-2 vs. the top 50. I just can't figure them out.

Xavier (17-13)
RPI: 80  SOS: 51  Non-Conference SOS: 109
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 5-3  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-8
Road W-L: 4-7  Last 12 Games: 6-6
Key Wins: Butler, Temple, La Salle, Memphis, Saint Louis
Key Losses: Wofford, at Wake Forest, Pacific, Vanderbilt, at Dayton, at Richmond, UMass, at St. Joseph's, at Charlotte, at Tennessee
Breakdown: At 17-13, they should not even be considered you'd think. But those 5 keys win merit consideration. The losses though almost take that consideration away. The RPI number is 80 is not good bu the 5-3 record vs. the top 50 is. We shall see.