2015 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 12

The journey that is Barnes Bracketology is almost over. It's a little bit sad but a lot more exciting. Because as much as I enjoy breaking down these teams and making the best possible bracket, I enjoy watching the games even more. Seeing 68 teams get down to 4 teams in a span of 2 weeks is the closest thing to sports television heaven I can think of. And while this year, there looks to be one obvious champion out there, what if that team doesn't win? What if they get upset early like so many top seeds have before them? That's the reason we watch the tournament and why I can't wait until the madness begins.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I spent the last few days really looking over each team's resume and after doing that, I moved some teams around. For instance, VCU took a bit of a slide as I took into further consideration their play as of late without Briante Weber, their best defender. The committee is likely to dock them knowing he is gone for the season. I also added Davidson to this list. May be a bit early for that but they won the A-10 outright. That's enough for me when I have 2 others from the conference in as LOCKS.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (36): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas, Maryland, Baylor, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Utah, Oklahoma, Northern Iowa, SMU, Louisville, North Carolina, West Virginia, Wichita State, Georgetown, Arkansas, Butler, Providence, San Diego State, St. John's, Cincinnati, Iowa, VCU, Michigan State, NC State, Xavier, Dayton, Temple, Ohio State, Davidson



AUTOS: God amount of change here as some of my choices in these conference tournaments lost. They have now been replaced by the champs and you'll also see them in the bracket.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - Northeastern, Conference USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Manhattan, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Lafayette, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Down to just 11 spots in this group and will shrink as the days go on here. I made a change in this group by taking UCLA out and putting Indiana back in. As I said earlier, I took a long look at teams in these days off for pretty much all the teams and decided to swap the two. Still plenty of time for this to change again though.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (11): Georgia, LSU, Oregon, Colorado State, Purdue, Oklahoma State, BYU, Boise State, Ole Miss, Texas, Indiana

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Goodbye Murray State, Louisiana Tech and Pittsburgh. After going through everything, those teams just have no shot of getting in the field ahead of the 20 teams ahead of them. And with just 11 spots left, I'm not letting them up space on the post. Kudos to BYU who had played themselves onto the right side of the bubble for now. Others can do that in the coming days with upsets in their conference tournaments. Those near the end of this list may still need to win their tournaments to get in.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (20): Georgia, LSU, Oregon, Colorado State, Purdue, Oklahoma State, BYU, Boise State, Ole Miss, Texas, Indiana, Texas A&M, UCLA, Illinois, Tulsa, Miami (FL), Richmond, Old Dominion, Rhode Island, Stanford

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big 12 (7), Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), SEC (5), American (3), Mountain West (3), A-10 (3), Pac-12 (3), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: Indiana

NEW TEAMS OUT: UCLA

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Michigan vs. Illinois (Big Ten 2nd Rd) - A must-win for Illinois to stay in the discussion for an AT-LARGE. And they'll likely need the upset of Wisconsin as well.
Florida State vs. Virginia (ACC Quarterfinals) - Virginia is a bit fragile right now with the 1 seed with the Justin Anderson injury. I still think they'll hold on to it but a loss here may add some doubt.
Marquette vs. Villanova (Big East Quarterfinals) - A Villanova upset loss would mean a ton for Arizona, Wisconsin and maybe even Gonzaga who are trying to snag that final 1 seed. Villanova's margin is razor thin, especially when it comes to Wisconsin.
TCU vs. Kansas (Big 12 Quarterfinals) - Kansas is banged up and short a few players. Not a problem in terms of making the field but Maryland could snag their 2 seed with an early loss here and a Maryland deep run.
California vs. Arizona (Pac-12 Quarterfinals) - As mentioned above, Arizona could get a 1 seed. They need some help and to obviously, win this tournament.
Air Force vs. Boise State (Mountain West Quarterfinals) - I think Boise is in decent shape though I have them playing in the First Four. But a loss here will have them on thin ice, despite winning the Mountain West in the regular season.
Auburn vs. Texas A&M (SEC 2nd Rd) - One of the things about the Aggies resume is that it doesn;t have any bad losses. This would be one, especially since they are on the outside looking in.
Middle Tennessee State vs. Old Dominion (CUSA Quarterfinals) - ODU not only needs to probably get to the CUSA title game but get some help from some other bubble teams.
USC vs. UCLA (Pac-12 Quarterfinals) - UCLA's margin of error is gone. Need this win and then a quality win in the semifinals. And that still may not be enough.
Northwestern vs. Indiana (Big Ten 2nd Rd) - The Wildcats just beat the Hoosiers not too long ago. If that happens again, Indiana can begin to prepare for the NIT.
Texas vs. Iowa State (Big 12 Quarterfinals) - This will be a tough win for Texas but they might just need it. They don't have a bad loss and this wouldn't be either. But they don't have enough good wins.
Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 Quarterfinals) - Little intrastate rivalry with a lot on the line for OKST. The Cowboys might be in better shape than I think but they'll be a LOCK if they pull off this neutral site victory.
Colorado vs. Oregon (Pac-12 Quarterfinals) - The Ducks are doing everything right, getting hot at the right time. Don't let the committee's last look of you be a loss to lowly Colorado   
South Carolina vs. Ole Miss (SEC 2nd Rd) - Ole Miss looked solid not too long ago but not now. Won't say must-win but a loss allows others the chance to jump them with better wins.
Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame (ACC Quarterfinals) - Miami (FL)'s win at Duke can only go so far. They need another feather in its cap. Great chance here.
Fresno State vs. Colorado State (Mountain West Quarterfinals) - Colorado State's resume is not all that impressive, but lately they've done well to avoid the bad loss. Do that one more time and their case to be in strengthens yet again.
Stanford vs. Utah (Pac-12 Quarterfinals) - Very likely the Cardinal need to get to the title game to have real case that they belong.   

Next update comes tomorrow. That's right, Barnes Bracketology is going daily until Selection Sunday. And on Selection Sunday, the hope is to post a bracket in the morning and one final one at halftime of the Big Ten title game (if necessary). So check back tomorrow for any updates and there should be some considering all the BUBBLE teams in action on Thursday.

MB

2015 Barnes Bracketology: Bubble Watch

It's that annual tradition of Barnes Bracketology where I lay out the resumes of the bubble teams and let you decide if I'm right or wrong about the bubble teams.

I'll be honest, this is the hardest part, coming up with those last few teams. Right now, I have 24 teams on the BUBBLE battling for the final 12 spots.

Now granted, I could narrow down those 24 to maybe 20 and those spots from 12 to maybe 8 but I am being very cautious this year, trying to do my due diligence.

And so without further adieu, here are the numbers, in RPI order. The color coding just defines how I see them in the bracket right now. Below the numbers, I will answer some FAQ's that I have received during this process so far

FAQS

What do you consider the most important criteria for these BUBBLE teams?
I don't have one set criteria. I'm a big fan of a team that has big wins. When it comes to these teams, you sometimes get the mix of teams with a deceptively good RPI, like Old Dominion and Colorado State, but don't have the big wins that seem to warrant it. So I look at how good those wins were. I also look for teams that are playing well in the last month or so. And lastly, the strength of schedule is huge for me. I look less at bad losses than others might. Teams have off nights to bad teams. But if you make up for it with some great nights vs. good teams, I'll consider the great win more.

Is it true the committee cares more about geography than matchups?
Sadly, this is accurate. The committee chair said as much on CBS on Sunday. What this means for a team like Wisconsin, who is currently my highest ranked 2 seed, is that they would rather the Badgers be placed in the Cleveland regional where Kentucky will be placed instead of the region with the weakest 1 seed (for me, that's Villanova) because Madison, WI is closest to Cleveland. That's absurd to me. It makes the regions uneven and for those top seeds, that's a big deal. I wish they would use common sense and just worry about the first couple rounds in regards to geography. After that, worry about making the regions as even as possible.

OSU has one win over a top-50 RPI team. Oklahoma State has 6! Why is one OSU a lock and the other not?
This is a great question that brings up the argument that it's not all about the numbers sometimes. When you see something like that, you think Oklahoma State is getting a raw deal. But look closer. The Cowboys were under .500 in their conference. They are 17-12, an underwhelming record. They are 5-7 in their last 12 games. And they have two losses vs. teams with a sub-100 RPI. None of those are good. Meanwhile, Ohio State does not have one sub-100 RPI loss, finished 11-7 in conference play, are 8-4 in the last 12 games and have an overall record of 22-9. Yes, it's not impressive to have just one win against a team that is a LOCK for the tournament (home win vs. Maryland) at this stage, but the Buckeyes have done enough while the Cowboys are still struggling to prove they are worthy.

Buffalo is ranked 32nd in the RPI and not even considered a BUBBLE team. What gives?
I'm an alum of a MAC school (Ohio University) so I would love to include the Bulls in the mix but this is another case of looking past the numbers. There's not a quality win on that resume. Not one win against a team that will make the tournament, besides the winner of the MAC tournament. And 9 losses on the season, with 6 coming in conference play? Yikes. Sorry Buffalo, but if you want to dancing, better win the conference tournament.

Murray State went perfect in their conference but got upset in their conference tournament. Can they get in?
Short answer: it's a long shot. The Racers look like a great team when you watch them. Have a good, up and coming coach and a quality player in Cameron Payne. But man, besides that record, those numbers are terrible. The 256th best strength of schedule doesn't inspire me that you're as good as your record is. Plus, when Murray State did play quality competition like Xavier and Valparaiso, they lost by 27 and 35 respectively. They only have one decent win and that's vs. Illinois State, who did knock off Wichita State last week. But even that's just okay, since it was at home. This is just that simple case of bad luck. Win all those games in a row and lose the biggest one of the year and be left watching the Big Dance from home.

Who do you think will win it all?
I don't make predictions on who will make the Final Four or anything like that until I see the bracket completed. It's all about matchups and it's foolish to pick a team and then see their road be littered with bad matchups and stick with them. So I'll refrain from picking any one until then (but it's probably going to be Kentucky) 

Alright, that's all for now. I'll have a new bracket posted on Thursday. It may feature some drastic changes as I reevaluate every team closely for the last time, because come Thursday's games, we will be making just some subtle changes to seedings and making more time figuring out who gets in and who gets out, as I'm sure the committee will be doing as well.

MB

2015 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 9

We're down to less than a week until Selection Sunday. And that means a week until we find out how accurate I was with my final bracket. I got a bit of a hint of how the committee plans on seeding and placing the team in the bracket. The committee chairman was on TV and mentioned that geography is more paramount than matchups. That means just because a team may be the best 2 seed doesn't mean they will play the worst 1 seed. That is HUGE news for me, as instead of making the bracket that makes the most sense, I have to tweak my thinking to change to what the committee will be doing. After all, that's why I do this.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: As expected, we have some new entries in this category after the weekend. All joining thanks to wins. NC State, Xavier and Temple have done enough for me to be in the field. Others are very, very close.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (35): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas,Maryland, Baylor, Notre Dame, Utah, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Northern Iowa, SMU, Louisville, North Carolina, West Virginia, Wichita State, Arkansas, Georgetown, Butler, VCU, Providence, San Diego State, St. John's, Michigan State, Dayton, Cincinnati, Iowa, NC State, Xavier, Temple, Ohio State



AUTOS: Championship week is underway for some of these conferences.For others, it is soon to start. And for a a few, it is over and that means berths are clinched. So look for those changes and congrats to those teams.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Lafayette, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Indiana is playing itself into a sticky situation. Same goes for Ole Miss. In the meantime, kudos to Texas for re-joining this group. Davidson, LSU, and Purdue are the big movers up in this group from the weekend. I'd lock up a few more of these teams normally but with 9 potential bid stealers out there, better safe than sorry.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (12): LSU, Colorado State, Georgia, Purdue, Oregon, Davidson, Boise State, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, UCLA, BYU, Texas

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: This group is larger than I imagined it would be this late. That doesn't mean the teams are strong. Just means more mediocrity on the bubble. Indiana is on the outside looking in now. Meanwhile, Tulsa and Illinois missed out on big wins on the road. And look out for Richmond charging hard. And for those looking for Murray State, they made the list but their chances of getting to an AT-LARGE are incredibly slim, considering their lackluster resume and their lack of games left (zero).

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (24): LSU, Colorado State, Georgia, Purdue, Oregon, Davidson, Boise State, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, UCLA, BYU, Texas, Indiana, Miami (FL), Tulsa, Illinois, Texas A&M, Old Dominion, Richmond, Rhode Island, Stanford, Louisiana Tech, Murray State, Pittsburgh

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big 12 (7), Big Ten (6), ACC (6), Big East (6), SEC (5), Pac-12 (4), American (3), Mountain West (3), A-10 (3),  Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: Texas

NEW TEAMS OUT: Indiana

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

West Coast Championship (Tuesday) - Potential bid-stealer. If Gonzaga or BYU does not win this, one of those BUBBLE spots are going away. If BYU gets to the title game and faces Gonzaga, they have a real chance of getting into the field even with a loss to Gonzaga.

Next update comes Tuesday with the annual BUBBLE special as we dissect the teams fighting to get in and let you decide who deserves those final few spots.

MB

2015 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 6

In or out? That's the question all of the bubble teams are thinking right now? Have we done enough to be considered in the field of 68 or are we still on the outside? It's enough to make a coach and player go crazy but for myself, it just means comparing a few resumes and making a decision. Still time before selection Sunday so no need to panic for any team. Just take care of business and it will take care of itself. But if you don't, you put your fate in the hands of people who are very much a wild card each and every season.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Getting down to the end here and sometimes, all it takes it just a simple win, even against an inferior team, to lock up your spot. This week, 4 teams did just that. Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa and Cincinnati joined these ranks and it was well-deserved for all after a whole season of waffling.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (32): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona, Kansas, Gonzaga, Maryland, Baylor, Utah, Notre Dame, Wichita State, Iowa State, North Carolina, Oklahoma Arkansas, Northern Iowa, SMU, West Virginia, Louisville, Providence, Georgetown, Dayton, VCU, Butler, San Diego State, St. John's, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Iowa



AUTOS: Championship week is underway for some of these conferences. None of them affecting my decisions from Sunday, but I did make one change as I felt necessary.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - High Point, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Good luck every trying to figure out this group. Some weeks, the teams near the top of this group show up as if they know they have an NCAA berth on the line. Others lay an egg on their home floor and the road floor and keep themselves in limbo. The newcomer to the group is Davidson, who did a nice job beating VCU. Texas A&M falls out after an uninspiring loss to the Gators.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (15): Temple, Oklahoma State, Colorado State, Georgia, Xavier, Ole Miss, NC State, Boise State, Indiana, Oregon, LSU, Purdue, Davidson, UCLA, BYU

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Selection Sunday is just around the corner and I can assure you this is not where you want to be: on the bubble. Some of these schools have some big opportunities ahead in the conference tournament. Others do not. S e shall see just how much emphasis is put into politicking.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (30): Temple, Oklahoma State, Colorado State, Georgia, Xavier, Ole Miss, NC State, Boise State, Indiana, Oregon, LSU, Purdue, Davidson, UCLA, BYU, Texas A&M, Illinois, Texas, Miami (FL), Tulsa, Pittsburgh, Old Dominion, Stanford, Rhode Island, UMass, Louisiana Tech, UConn, Richmond

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), Pac-12 (4), American (3), Mountain West (3), A-10 (3),  Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: Davidson

NEW TEAMS OUT: Texas A&M

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

TBA

Next update after Sunday's games.

MB

2015 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 2

HAPPY MARCH! This is the month I look forward to for 11 months because I know that madness will ensue. But before we get to that, we have to have a field of 68 teams to populate the bracket. Some may look at my projections and think I am being conservative with some of my calls but I play it safe in this process. Only make calls that are 100% and make projections that make sense. That's what made me so accurate the last 5 years and better than the likes of ESPN's Joe Lunardi and CBS' Jerry Palm. There is a method to my madness....and trust me, it is madness!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I was hoping to add 4 teams to this group after the weekend but instead, end up with just 2. Those being Dayton and St. John's. Both beat teams that were already LOCKS, which is the best kind of win, so it made for a pretty easy decision. Came close to adding a few others but it will take one more game before I feel absolutely confident that "bid stealers" won't steal their bid in the case they falter in their final few games.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (28): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga Kansas, Maryland, Baylor, Utah, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Wichita State, North Carolina, Iowa State, Louisville, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, West Virginia, SMU, Providence, VCU, Butler, Georgetown, Dayton, San Diego State, St. John's



AUTOS: As I do every weekend with this group, I reconsider who is actually the frontrunner to win the automatic bid. I made a couple changes. Very soon, some of these guesses will just be fact as conference tournaments get underway for some this week.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Sacramento State, Big South - High Point, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Another frustrating from this group. 3 of the top 6 in the group lost, keeping them from being promoted. Another 2 teams did not play which neither hurt or helped them. 3 teams dropped out, though only 2 did because of losses. The 3 who are now out are Illinois (who won), Pittsburgh and Stanford. Their replacements all had great wins. BYU won at Gonzaga. Boise State won at San Diego State and Oregon won at Stanford. Beating a good team is always good. Beating them on the road though is great, and worthy of a big bump.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (19): Indiana, Xavier, Ohio State, Colorado State, Temple, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Michigan State, LSU, Texas A&M, Iowa, Ole Miss, Purdue, Boise State, Oregon, NC State, UCLA, BYU

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Fascinating week for many in this group. Most of them got huge wins, including the ones I mentioned above. Others like Davidson, Tulsa, and UMass won as well but those wins did not carry the same weight. They are still very much alive though so keep an eye on them these last couple of weeks. I added UConn to this group as well. The defending champs are playing well right now and frankly, I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they player their way into the field.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (30): Indiana, Xavier, Ohio State, Colorado State, Temple, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Michigan State, LSU, Texas A&M, Iowa, Ole Miss, Purdue, Boise State, Oregon, NC State, UCLA, BYU, Illinois, Davidson, Stanford, Tulsa, Pittsburgh, UMass, Miami (FL), Rhode Island, Texas, Old Dominion, UConn

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), American (3), Mountain West (3), A-10 (2),  Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: Boise State, BYU, Oregon

NEW TEAMS OUT: Pittsburgh, Illinois, Stanford

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Monday

Virginia at Syracuse - Win this game and UVA is probably locked in as a 1 seed. Two more losses probably won't be enough to keep them from this honor

Baylor at Texas - Texas is already 6-10 in Big 12 play. It will take at least 8-10 to think about an at-large bid again.

Tuesday

Kentucky at Georgia - Kentucky is a 1 seed no matter what. A Georgia win though locks up their spot, pulling off this huge upset.

Villanova at Creighton - Nova is barely a top seed now. Can easily blowing it by losing this easy one.

Rhode Island at Dayton - URI can't lock up their spot but this would go a long way to getting close.

Iowa at Indiana (BUBBLE SPECIAL): Indiana win locks up their spot. Iowa win may do the same.

Ole Miss at Alabama - Ole Miss looked safe not too long ago. Lose here and they could be in real trouble.

NC State at Clemson - You can't beat Louisville and North Carolina and then drop games at BC and Clemson and expect to get in.

Texas A&M at Florida - The kind of game Texas A&M needs to win to take all doubt away from the committee.

Wednesday

Ohio State at Penn State - Buckeyes win, they are a lock. Plain and simple.

Tennessee at LSU - LSU is doing everything right lately. Keep it that way and they'll be a happy bunch on Selection Sunday.

Richmond at UMass - UMass pretty much needs to win out and make a deep run in the A10 Tourney.

Miami (FL) at Pittsburgh (BUBBLE SPECIAL) - Has a feeling of a "the team that loses sees their bubble burst" kind of game.

Purdue at Michigan State (BUBBLE SPECIAL) - Both will be okay if they lose but the winner locks up their spot.

TCU at Oklahoma State - OK State just needs to avoid the bad loss to lock up their spot. Been that way the last 3 games.

Cincinnati at Tulsa (BUBBLE SPECIAL) - Big opportunity for Tulsa to prove they are worthy. Cincy can absorb this loss but would rather not still.

USC at UCLA - USC is really bad. So UCLA better win to stay in the conversation.

Colorado State at Nevada - Colorado State looks like a tourney team. Loss here may make others think maybe not.

Nebraska at Illinois - Can you say "must-win" for the Illini? Because I can.

Boise State at San Jose State - SJSU has yet to win a conference game. This would not the right time for Boise State to be in a giving mood.

Oregon at Oregon State - It's a rivalry game but for Oregon, it takes on more meaning as they play for a NCAA Tournament berth too.

Thursday

Wisconsin at Minnesota - Wisconsin can still get that final 1 seed. One loss though ends that dream most likely.

VCU at Davidson - VCU is safe. Davidson is not. So you get the point.

Temple at East Carolina - Temple needs to avoid the bad loss. This would be a bad loss.

Marshall at Old Dominion - ODU cannot afford any loss in any way.

Memphis at UConn - UConn is charging hard and needs to if they want to stay in the discussion.

Stanford at Arizona State - Stanford has had plenty of chances to not be in the position they are in. ASU is not an easy win in Tempe but the Cardinal need it badly.

Next update after Thursday's games.

MB