2015 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 13

Getting to be about that time where BUBBLE teams start to feel the pressure, and I love that! When you have just 5-6 games left on your regular season schedule, and probably just 2-3 against teams that can help your resume, games against those quality teams become more important. And that means even if teams aren't exactly ranked, it makes for a great, competitive game, because there is much more on the line than just a conference win. There could be an AT-LARGE spot in March Madness (and Barnes Bracketology) on the line.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Couple changes here. The first is something I hate to do but that is to take a team out of this category. Only the second time I've ever done that but in this case, it's due to an injury that is clearly hurting the team. Talking about VCU and the loss of Briante Weber, their best defender. Since losing him, they have lost 3 of 4 and while they are likely still going to get into the tournament, let's not call them a LOCK anymore. It is time to call Oklahoma, Wichita State and Northern Iowa that though, who are new additions after wins this week.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (17): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin, Kansas, Villanova, Gonzaga, Arizona, Louisville, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor, Wichita State, Northern Iowa



AUTOS: Every Sunday night, I'll check back on this group to see if I need to make any tweaks. I made a couple but nothing too drastic.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (24): America East - Albany, American - Cincinnati, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Atlantic 10 - VCU, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - High Point, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - NC Central, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia Southern, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: For the first time, not one team dropped down form this list. 3 were elevated but no one dropped out. The losses suffered by LSU and Texas A&M were good losses, though both were at home. Plenty of shuffling but nothing too drastic.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (27): West Virginia, Butler, Georgetown, Arkansas, Providence, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, SMU, Xavier, Texas, Indiana, Georgia, Temple, Dayton, Ole Miss, Iowa, Stanford, Colorado State, St. John's, Illinois, Michigan State, Boise State, LSU, Seton Hall, Miami (FL), Texas A&M

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: This group has shrunk from 50 to 47 to 44. Yes, it is getting smaller and that's for two reasons. Some of those teams are moving into LOCKS. Others though are just not getting the job done to stay in consideration. This week, that includes the likes of Old Dominion and Saint Mary's, who couldn't really afford a loss right now. I added UMass to the fray though, as maybe I have overlooked just how good their resume is.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (44): West Virginia, VCU, Butler, Georgetown, Arkansas, Providence, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, Ohio State, SMU, Xavier, Texas, Indiana, Georgia, San Diego State, Temple, Dayton, Ole Miss, Iowa, Stanford, Colorado State, St. John's, Illinois, Michigan State, Boise State, LSU, Seton Hall, Miami (FL), Texas A&M, Purdue, Oregon, BYU, UCLA, Tennessee, George Washington, Pittsburgh, UMass, Alabama, NC State, Tulsa, Washington, Wyoming, Rhode Island

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big East (7), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), ACC (6), SEC (6), American (3), Mountain West (3), Pac-12 (3), A-10 (2), Missouri Valley (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: None

NEW TEAMS OUT: None

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday's games.

MB

2015 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 9

So here we stand, 5 weeks until Selection Sunday and from all accounts, this tournament is Kentucky's to lose. The lone undefeated team and clearly, the most talented on paper. But what may keep Kentucky from winning it all will be the matchups they must face en route to the championship game. Teams like a veteran squad in Wisconsin or defensive-minded Virginia team could be exactly what could trip up the Cats. How long will UK have until they face a team they may have real trouble with on a neutral floor? That's why putting the bracket together is so important.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Made our first addition to this group since I've begun posting. Baylor is now a LOCK to get in, after a resounding win on the road at West Virginia, which adds to an already solid resume.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (15): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin, Kansas, Villanova, Gonzaga, Arizona, Iowa State, Louisville, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Utah, Baylor, VCU



AUTOS: Every Sunday night, I'll check back on this group to see if I need to make any tweaks. I made a couple but nothing too drastic.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (24): America East - Albany, American - Cincinnati, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - High Point, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - NC Central, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia Southern, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: It was a fun weekend for many of these teams. Lot of matchups between 2 teams in this category, so a win means a quality win while a loss just meant a missed opportunity. Kudos to Illinois, Boise State and LSU who with wins this weekend, now find themselves among the field of 68 but barely.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (29): Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Providence, Butler, Arkansas, Georgetown, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, SMU, Xavier, Texas, Indiana, Dayton, Georgia, Ole Miss, Temple, Iowa, Miami (FL), Stanford, St. John's, Seton Hall, Colorado State, Illinois, Michigan State, Texas A&M, LSU, Boise State

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Still a fairly large bubble right now, which is good news. That bubble will shrink and ultimately burst on a lot of teams as the weeks go on. And there is a lot of movement too as some teams like a George Washington creep up with a good win vs. a team projected in the field while others like Alabama and Washington are in a bit of a freefall.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (47): Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Providence, Butler, Arkansas, Georgetown, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, SMU, Xavier, Texas, Indiana, Dayton, San Diego State, Georgia, Ole Miss, Temple, Iowa, Miami (FL), Stanford, St. John's, Seton Hall, Colorado State, Illinois, Michigan State, Texas A&M, LSU, Boise State, Tennessee, George Washington, Purdue, NC State, BYU, Pittsburgh, Oregon, UCLA, Wyoming, Tulsa, Rhode Island, Alabama, Washington, Saint Mary's, Old Dominion

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big East (7), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), ACC (6), SEC (6), American (3), Mountain West (3), Pac-12 (3), A-10 (2), Missouri Valley (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: Illinois, Boise State, LSU

NEW TEAMS OUT: Tennessee, Purdue, Tulsa

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday's games.

MB

2015 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 6

Still more than a month before Selection Sunday and already, I can tell how tough this year may be finding teams that are worthy of the tournament. Seems like every year, there are about 60-64 teams that deserve to get into the tournament. But that final group of 4 is always hard to narrow down, especially when they all continually lose. That was the case this week.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: No one added or deleted from this group. Again, the goal is to never delete anyone from this group. I did change the order of teams slightly.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (14): Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Duke, Wisconsin, Arizona, Villanova, Gonzaga, Notre Dame, Louisville, Iowa State, North Carolina, VCU, Utah



AUTOS: This is the group of teams that will only make the tournament by winning their conference tournament. Obviously, I do not follow all of these conferences so I tend to just write in the team that leads the standings. I will update these as the weeks go on to make sure I predict the team playing the best at the time.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (24): America East - Albany, American - Tulsa, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - High Point, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - NC Central, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia Southern, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: In typical fashion, more than half of these teams lost, making for some interesting decisions on my part in moving them up, down or not at all. There were some quality wins (Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Providence) but also some pretty terrible losses (Xavier, Seton Hall, Tennessee, LSU, NC State) that caused me to shuffle this group more than usual in the first week of posting.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (30): Baylor, West Virginia, Northern Iowa, Providence, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Maryland, Butler, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Indiana, Dayton, SMU, Oklahoma State, Texas, Xavier, Georgia, Seton Hall, Ole Miss, Michigan State, Temple, Miami (FL), St. John's. Stanford, Iowa, Tennessee, Colorado State, Texas A&M, Purdue

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: It's only the first week in February and I'm already frustrated with this group of teams. They are all pretty mediocre and in the past 4 days, did nothing to change my opinion. Besides Purdue and Wyoming, none had an impressive win. Others like Richmond and Kansas State tallied embarrassing losses that really dropped them. In other words, plenty of moving and shaking happened and I'm sure plenty more will occur in the weeks ahead.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (50): Baylor, Wichita State, West Virginia, Northern Iowa, Providence, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Maryland, Butler, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Arkansas, San Diego State, Indiana, Dayton, SMU, Oklahoma State, Texas, Xavier, Georgia, Seton Hall, Ole Miss, Michigan State, Temple, Miami (FL), St. John's. Stanford, Iowa, Tennessee, Colorado State, Texas A&M, Purdue, LSU, Boise State, Illinois, Washington, NC State, George Washington, Wyoming, UCLA, BYU, Alabama, Clemson, Tulsa, Kansas State, Pittsburgh, Oregon, Memphis, Richmond, Old Dominion

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big East (7), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), ACC (6), SEC (6), American (4), Pac-12 (3), A-10 (2), Missouri Valley (2), Mountain West (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: Iowa, Texas A&M, Purdue

NEW TEAMS OUT: Washington, LSU, NC State

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday's games.

MB

2015 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 2

For the sixth year in a row, Barnes Bracketology is here! Been a very successful 5 years as I have correctly predicted 67 out of 68 teams each year. (Feel free to check out my self-congratulatory recap post from last year here). This year, I hope to be perfect -- though as I will point out numerous times, just because I miss a team does not mean I am wrong, just means I do not agree with the tournament committee. There is no RIGHT way to make these brackets. It is sort of like a puzzle that can be put together in different ways. Barnes Bracketology is simply just another one of those ways.

These early posts are always a bit rough and the projections will fluctuate a good amount as I really start to get a feel for the teams. When you're a football fanatic like myself, it's hard to throw yourself into this immediately so it takes a week or two. But just like the previous years, I continue to find ways to make this process easier, faster and hopefully more enjoyable for the reader and I think I will do that again this year.

If you are new to this column, here is a quick intro. I will update this every Monday and Friday. That is because teams tend to play one game from Mon-Thurs and then another between Fri-Sun. I will explain where each team stands. I will NOT look at one Bracketology projection on any other site (ESPN, CBS Sports, etc..) during this process as to not be influenced by so-called "experts" (who just simply get paid to do what I am doing as a hobby). I love your feedback too so if you have any questions or comments, go for it.

So for the sixth (!) year, here we go.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: This group is for the teams that will pretty much locked up their spot in the tournament. My goal is to never take a team out of this group, so I may be hesitant to put teams in here early on until I know for sure a team has done enough to make the tournament. I will put these teams in order so you know how I rank these teams on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (14): Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Duke, Wisconsin, Arizona, Villanova, Gonzaga, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Louisville, Iowa State, VCU, Utah



AUTOS: This is the group of teams that will only make the tournament by winning their conference tournament. Obviously, I do not follow all of these conferences so I tend to just write in the team that leads the standings. I will update these as the weeks go on to make sure I predict the team playing the best at the time.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (24): America East - Albany, American - Tulsa, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - High Point, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - NC Central, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia Southern, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: This group is for the teams that are not LOCKS to get into the tournament as of yet but still are worthy of being included in the field. This is the group that will slowly get smaller and smaller as the weeks go on. Some of these tams will graduate to LOCKS. Others will fall out and simply be on the BUBBLE on the outside looking in.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (30): Baylor, West Virginia, Georgetown, Northern Iowa, Providence, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Maryland, Butler, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Indiana, SMU, Xavier, Dayton, Texas, Seton Hall, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Miami (FL), Michigan State, Ole Miss, Temple, St. John's, Washington, Tennessee, Stanford, LSU, Colorado State, NC State

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: You know what this group is about. The teams that are not LOCKS and are hoping to be an AT-LARGE selection. You'll notice, all of the AT-LARGE teams are in this group because if you aren't a LOCK, you're still technically on the BUBBLE. Some teams are just safer than others. You'll also see teams from the AUTO category in here. That's because they would be in the AT-LARGE discussion if they were to lose in the conference tournament.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (47): Baylor, Wichita State, West Virginia, Georgetown, Northern Iowa, Providence, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Maryland, Butler, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Indiana, San Diego State, SMU, Xavier, Dayton, Texas, Seton Hall, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Miami (FL), Michigan State, Ole Miss, Temple, St. John's, Washington, Tennessee, Stanford, LSU, Colorado State, NC State, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Iowa, Illinois, Florida, George Washington, Boise State, Purdue, Richmond, Alabama, Pittsburgh, Clemson, Wyoming, Tulsa, Old Dominion

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (7), Big East (7), Big 12 (7), SEC (6), Big Ten (5), American (4), Pac-12 (4), A-10 (2), Missouri Valley (2), Mountain West (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday's games.

MB

My (Sports) Christmas List

 My parents never told me Santa was not real. It's something they pledged to do with their children.

But thanks to some sleuthing and deductive reasoning as a child, I figured it out on my own. But what if I'm wrong?

So for fun, I made a Christmas list for Santa. But instead of asking for material things for myself, (which these days consists of things like socks, ties, and gift cards to restaurants so I don't have to cook), I decided to send a list to the North Pole asking for help for each of my favorite sports teams.

The following is a copy of what I sent to Saint Nick. Here's hoping I made the nice list this year:

Matt Barnes

My Address Ave

Columbus, OH 43212

Santa Claus
North Pole, USA

Dear Santa,

It's Matt. I really hope 2014 was jolly for you. It was for me, but it would have been better if my favorite sports teams had a bit more success.

And with that in mind, in lieu of asking for something for myself, I was hoping you could be a little genie-like and share some Christmas magic with my favorite teams. My requests are as follows:

1. Columbus Blue Jackets: Health
- This may seem a bit general but if you've kept up with the CBJ, you know why I'm asking. Seems like every week, a different player is going down with an injury. And not just a day-by-day injury, but a week-to-week or month-to-month injury. The team has fought valiantly through it all, just like I know you do on Christmas Day when weather is not ideal. But with some health, the team might actually play like the playoff team they were last season. There's plenty of time left in the season but the sooner, the better. They are 9 points out of a playoff spot right now so cutting into that by the All-Star break is probably a good idea.

2. Indiana Pacers: Tank for 2015
- It almost pains me to ask you to get my favorite NBA team to stop winning but in the long run, it's best for the franchise and fan base. Once Paul George went down to injury, the season was lost. I mean, the chances of them getting to the NBA Finals with the roster they have now is as slim as Kim Jong Un making the "nice" list. A bad season would mean a better draft pick, and for a team that could use an infusion of young talent, that is a big deal. This won't be easy with a coach like Frank Vogel and a veteran leader like David West, but hey, You're Santa. I know you can do it!

3. Indianapolis Colts: An effective offensive line and run game
- Getting Andrew Luck in the draft is the Christmas gift that keeps on giving. So props to you for any help on that. But a QB can only be as good as the guys that protect him and the run game that takes the heat off of him. This season, Luck has had neither. Now, they are playoff bound but their line is having trouble protecting Luck (who has turned the ball over way too much lately) and their run game is non-existent. Forget 3 yards and a cloud of dust. Right now, it's just dust. The defense is much improved so with your help, I think this team could make the next step toward becoming a real Super Bowl contender.

4. Cleveland Indians: A return to form for Nick Swisher
- I really want to ask for a new owner who is willing to spend some money but part of me enjoys the underdog way the Indians operate. But it would be nice for their highest paid player to play like it for once. I like Nick Swisher a lot. He's as jolly as you are and been great for the fan base and the city. But his production is....well, I'll put it this way. Just imagine if you only delivered presents to 20% of people? Yeah, not good. With a bounce back season from Swisher (and a couple of others), I think the Indians are real World Series contenders. Really.

5. Ohio State football: Win vs. Alabama
- This may seem really greedy but hey, I could ask for a national championship! The reason I ask for just this win is because it would silence a lot of people. Losing a close game to Bama, even in OT, would do nothing. This needs to be a win. It would bring some real credibility to the Big Ten, which most certainly needs it. It would also help quiet those who think Baylor or TCU were more deserving of OSU's spot (they aren't). If OSU were to lose in the championship, yes, I would not be happy but I'd also be content considering I think this team is a year ahead of schedule.

6. Ohio Football: Solich calls it quits in 2015
- This one hurts to write, because I know how much Solich has done for the program. They are relevant, competitive, and heading to bowl games nearly every season. The expectations for this program are much higher than they were I stepped foot on the campus in 2004. But now is the time. The program is a bit stagnant right now, while the rest of the MAC has hired younger, more vibrant head coaches who can recruit better. And in the MAC, talent > coaching many times. In a perfect world, Solich wins a MAC title next year and retires on a real high note. He's done wonders for the program and the fan base, but all good things must come to an end, right? Well, except you Santa.

7. Ohio State Basketball: One more year for D'Angelo Russell
- I know this won't happen but if it did, what a big deal it would be for this team. He is unquestionably the best player on the team not and one of the more productive freshmen in the nation so far. But in 2 games vs. ranked teams, he has not exactly been a star. So maybe he could use another year to improve that draft stock. And if he does come back, he'll join a good recruiting class that could elevate OSU to the top of the Big Ten and the polls quickly. Again, this is unlikely but hey, so was you finding a reindeer with a red nose.

8. Ohio Basketball: Positive Momentum
- This is actually one that may already be happening. The team is under .500 right now but I do see some hope there. The guys are fighting, the coaches are into it, and the recruiting classes look strong. Plus, there are transfers waiting in the wings to help as well. But it doesn't hurt to ask for more right? The more momentum this program can get, the better.

That's it for my favorite teams. But if I've been an especially nice guy (which I would argue that I have been), I have a few other things too:
- A competitive Super Bowl
- A Final Four without Kentucky
- No more weekly College Football Playoff rankings shows
- Tiger Woods finishing in top 5 or winning a major championship in 2015
- The big four in men's tennis (Nadal, Djokovic, Federer, Murray) stay healthy

So that's it Santa. I hope that's not asking for too much. I know you've got a lot to do before the big day but most of these don't need your attention immediately.

Thanks for all the great gifts through the years. I'll leave you a couple cookies and skim milk near the fireplace. I'm sure Mrs. Claus will appreciate my attempt to keep you healthy!

Matt Barnes

P.S. Do you really watch me while I'm sleeping? Just wondering. Because that's kind of creepy.