2015 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 9

So here we stand, 5 weeks until Selection Sunday and from all accounts, this tournament is Kentucky's to lose. The lone undefeated team and clearly, the most talented on paper. But what may keep Kentucky from winning it all will be the matchups they must face en route to the championship game. Teams like a veteran squad in Wisconsin or defensive-minded Virginia team could be exactly what could trip up the Cats. How long will UK have until they face a team they may have real trouble with on a neutral floor? That's why putting the bracket together is so important.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Made our first addition to this group since I've begun posting. Baylor is now a LOCK to get in, after a resounding win on the road at West Virginia, which adds to an already solid resume.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (15): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin, Kansas, Villanova, Gonzaga, Arizona, Iowa State, Louisville, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Utah, Baylor, VCU



AUTOS: Every Sunday night, I'll check back on this group to see if I need to make any tweaks. I made a couple but nothing too drastic.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (24): America East - Albany, American - Cincinnati, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - High Point, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - NC Central, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia Southern, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: It was a fun weekend for many of these teams. Lot of matchups between 2 teams in this category, so a win means a quality win while a loss just meant a missed opportunity. Kudos to Illinois, Boise State and LSU who with wins this weekend, now find themselves among the field of 68 but barely.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (29): Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Providence, Butler, Arkansas, Georgetown, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, SMU, Xavier, Texas, Indiana, Dayton, Georgia, Ole Miss, Temple, Iowa, Miami (FL), Stanford, St. John's, Seton Hall, Colorado State, Illinois, Michigan State, Texas A&M, LSU, Boise State

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Still a fairly large bubble right now, which is good news. That bubble will shrink and ultimately burst on a lot of teams as the weeks go on. And there is a lot of movement too as some teams like a George Washington creep up with a good win vs. a team projected in the field while others like Alabama and Washington are in a bit of a freefall.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (47): Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Providence, Butler, Arkansas, Georgetown, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, SMU, Xavier, Texas, Indiana, Dayton, San Diego State, Georgia, Ole Miss, Temple, Iowa, Miami (FL), Stanford, St. John's, Seton Hall, Colorado State, Illinois, Michigan State, Texas A&M, LSU, Boise State, Tennessee, George Washington, Purdue, NC State, BYU, Pittsburgh, Oregon, UCLA, Wyoming, Tulsa, Rhode Island, Alabama, Washington, Saint Mary's, Old Dominion

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big East (7), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), ACC (6), SEC (6), American (3), Mountain West (3), Pac-12 (3), A-10 (2), Missouri Valley (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: Illinois, Boise State, LSU

NEW TEAMS OUT: Tennessee, Purdue, Tulsa

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday's games.

MB