2015 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 16

With less than 4 weeks now until Selection Sunday, now it gets fun. Each team has about 5-6 games left and the ones who feel like they are LOCKS to get in are trying for one of those top 2-3 seeds. Those who are on the BUBBLE know just one win vs. a ranked team could be their ticket to the dance. It makes for great TV as teams are playing harder than ever before. Hope you're enjoying it as much as I am.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: We've added more teams to this group. One is a returner and one is a newcomer. The returner is VCU, who after taking down George Washington on the road, did what they needed to do for me to convince me they can win without Briante Weber. The newcomer is Arkansas, who at 20-5, looks like a team that should make the field. Don't be surprised if by Friday's update, this group grows by 3-4 more teams as teams now have less time to mess up already good resumes.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (19): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin, Kansas, Villanova, Gonzaga, Arizona, Notre Dame, Utah, Iowa State, Louisville, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Baylor, Wichita State, Arkansas, Northern Iowa, VCU



AUTOS: Made some changes within this group as some teams had better weeks than others. Again, many of these are pure guesses as it's hard to follow these conferences. Plus, the conference tournaments are all that matters for most of these conferences.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (23): America East - Albany, American - SMU, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - High Point, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - NC Central, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia Southern, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Good amount of changes here. Added 3 teams and shuffled the group quite a bit thanks to some results over the weekend. Michigan State, Pittsburgh, and UCLA had the biggest wins and were rewarded for it. Others who did lose were hurt a bit but not enough to fall out of the field. Can't say the same though for Boise State, Seton Hall and idle Miami (FL), who are on the outside looking in now.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (26): Maryland, Butler, Providence, West Virginia, Georgetown, Oklahoma State, Indiana, Dayton, Texas, Ohio State, Temple, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Ole Miss, St. John's, Xavier, Georgia, Colorado State, Illinois, Stanford, Iowa, LSU, UCLA, Texas A&M, Purdue, Pittsburgh

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: So the group that was 50, then 47, then 44 is now down to 40. That's how it goes on the bubble. You can always get into the mix but it's much easier to just have your bubble burst. Just ask Alabama, Washington, and Tennessee, who all are not mentioned this time. The teams near the end of this list likely need to win out before their conference tournament to get some real consideration. Those near the top just need to avoid the truly bad loss against a cellar dweller type of team.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (40): Maryland, Butler, Providence, West Virginia, Georgetown, SMU, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Indiana, Dayton, Texas, Ohio State, Temple, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Ole Miss, St. John's, Xavier, Georgia, Colorado State, Illinois, Stanford, Iowa, LSU, UCLA, Texas A&M, Purdue, Pittsburgh, Boise State, Miami (FL), BYU, NC State, Seton Hall, UMass, Oregon, Tulsa, Wyoming, Rhode Island, Davidson, George Washington

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big Ten (8), Big 12 (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), American (3), A-10 (2), Mountain West (2), Missouri Valley (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: UCLA, Purdue, Pittsburgh

NEW TEAMS OUT: Boise State, Miami (FL), Seton Hall

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday's games.

MB